State Of The Disunion

President Obama is expected to give his State of the Union speech on Jan 27th, signaling that his health care reform plan will not be done until next month at the earliest, but the budget will be submitted on Feb 1.

Obama's plan to deliver the speech next week almost guarantees that he will not be able to tout reform's passage in time for his prime time address to the nation. And it would mark yet another missed Democratic deadline on the road to health care reform.

Democratic efforts to pass reform could be complicated further if Republican Massachusetts Senate candidate Scott Brown wins tomorrow's special election to the seat left vacant by the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy last summer.

Nervous Democrats have already begun considering contingency plans should Brown win and deny them the 60-vote Democratic majority they have relied on to pass reform. Those plans include asking the House to approve the Senate bill without any changes so that it could be sent immediately to Obama's desk. Democrats could then tweak the legislation during the budget process, which only requires 51 Senate votes.

By law, the president must deliver the budget to Congress by Feb. 1. If reform is not finished before the budget is released, experts expect the administration will include top line estimates, such as how much reform reduces the deficit and cuts from Medicare and Medicaid spending, but not much other detail.

It's going to be a rough speech regardless.  No matter what happens in Massachusetts today, the Village has already declared the Obama presidency all but over and will be publicly questioning everything in the speech and the accompanying budget a few days later.  Obama will likely be attacked from the left as well.  Some of those attacks will be valid.  Some will not.

The entire country is frustrated as hell.  I hope the President sees that.