StupidiNews!

• A family emergency has come up for one of the Senator Toobs jurors.
• Karl Rove is blaming the prospect of Obama in office as the main cause of the economic crisis.
• Here in Kentucky, Obama is down by 16 points.
• Broadband internet through power lines? Deader than Nixon.
• The Rays tied up the World Series with a win last night at Tropicana Field.

Zandar Is Wise, Grasshopper

Me, two days ago:

I got a fiver says somebody on the GOP (not a blogger or El Rushbo, but an actual state/national GOP party official or McSame campaign official) denounces Obama's trip to Hawaii as:

1. a campaign stunt to elicit sympathy,
   
2. something that proves just how out of touch Obama is for being able to fly to Hawaii at a moment's notice,
   
3. proof that Obama is using all that "suspect campaign money illegally for personal reasons",
   
4. some combination of the above.

Just sayin.

McCain douchebag Brad Blakeman, today:



Do not doubt the Zandar, people.

Do You See What I'm Up Against?

And every now and then I find folks that make me look perfectly sane here on the internets. Bonus snippet:

I suspect that the media-manipulated polls could lead to violence if Obama is not elected, including injuries to innocent citizens, rioters, and law enforcement officials.

Or in other words BLOOGITY BLAH BLAH SCARY BLACK MAN AND HIS LIBERAL FRIENDS ARE GONNA KILL SOME WHITEYS WHEN MCSAME WINS! GET YOUR SHOTGUNS AND CANNED FOOD NOW!

The Next Stage Of The Meltdown

It's looking to be a race to see which one collapses first: Emerging markets in countries like Russia, Hungary, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico...

Developing nations' borrowing costs neared a six-year high after Standard & Poor's threatened to cut Russia's debt ratings as the global credit crisis deepened.

The extra yield investors demand to own emerging-market government bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries surged 39 basis points to 8.41 percentage points, the biggest since November 2002, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI+ index. The annual cost to protect Russia's bonds from default soared as S&P lowered Russia's ratings outlook to negative on concern the cost of the government's bank rescue will climb.

Russia has committed as much as 15 percent of its gross domestic product to propping up banks, including a $50 billion credit line to development bank Vnesheconombank. Russia's international reserves, the world's third largest, declined by $14.9 billion last week after the central bank sold currency to support the ruble as investors pulled money out of the country.

``There is now no safe haven globally other than a deeply indebted U.S. government,'' said Jim Reid, head of fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``The events of the last few days are categorical evidence of the globalization of the credit crunch and its subsequent problems.''

Ex-Soviet republic Belarus added to requests from Iceland, Pakistan, Hungary and Ukraine for at least $20 billion of emergency loans from the International Monetary Fund as the financial crisis leaves nations unable to repay their debt. Belarus has requested ``no less than'' $2 billion and may also seek funds from central banks and commercial banks in other countries, said central bank spokesman Anatoly Drozdov.

Argentine Nationalization

In Argentina, lawmakers are battling to block President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner from using $29 billion in nationalized pension fund assets to repay debt as the government struggles to avert its second default this decade. Fernandez announced plans to take over private pension funds on Oct. 21, sparking a rout in the country's financial markets. Argentina last seized retirement savings in 2001, before it reneged on $95 billion of debt and triggered a global selloff.

The yield on Argentina's 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 jumped 4.11 percentage points, to 33.44 percent at 11:44 a.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan. The bond's price fell 3.5 cents on the dollar to 20 cents, leaving it down almost 17 cents this week.

``It's becoming a mess in emerging markets,'' said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini. ``There are about a dozen emerging markets that are now in severe financial trouble.''

...or if the next disasterous collapse will be hundreds of hedge funds.

Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

Group of Seven policy makers have stopped short of market suspensions to stem the crisis after the U.S. pledged on Oct. 14 to invest about $125 billion in nine banks and the Federal Reserve led a global coordinated move to cut interest rates on Oct. 8. Emmanuel Roman, co-chief executive officer at GLG Partners Inc., said today that as many as 30 percent of hedge funds will close.

``Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger,'' Roubini said at the Hedge 2008 conference. ``We're seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds,'' and ``don't be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days,'' he said.

Both are poised to go. We're nowhere near out of the worst of the financial crisis yet. It's just beginning. If emerging markets collapse into mini-depressions, or the mighty hedge funds fold by the dozen, the pain we're seeing right now in the markets will be a fevered dream of peace compared to the chaos that will ensue.

And honestly, the question is when, and how badly, will both of these global linchpins disintegrate?

People think we're through the worst and that we've avoided a depression or even a bad recession for the most part, people are looking forward to the next "bear market rally". You're smarter then that, I'm hope...the worst is still to come.

It's No Longer The Credit Crunch...Or Is It?

LIBOR numbers this morning were decidedly mixed for once. The overnight rate and TED spread went up slightly while 1-month and 3-month rates registered tiny declines (1.62 BPs and 0.63 BPs) this morning. Given recent declines of 20+ BP, and the fact the LIBOR numbers are still well above bank rates, it means banks may be holding on to their cash again.

Then again, things like Wachovia's nearly $24 billion quarterly loss tends to scare the crap out of banks. Meanwhile, weekly jobless numbers are out this morning and they are bad. It looks like another dismal day on the markets.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 478,000 in the week ended Oct 18 from a revised 463,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 470,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 461,000 the week before.

The Labor Department said that the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added roughly 12,000 claims to the total.

"Job losses are clearly getting worse, we think this month we'll see more than 200,000 jobs lost," Nigel Gault, chief U.S. Economist at Global Insight, told Reuters.

That would bring total job loss number this year to close to a million in 10 months, a pretty staggering number considering in the first 9 months there were 750,000 jobs lost or so. 200k in one month is bad...because there's still two months to go this year. Holiday hiring may help reduce these job loss numbers for November and December, but with nearly everybody cutting back on seasonal hiring this year, by the time January hits, things are going to be downright disastrous. Still, over a million jobs lost in one year will be downright mild compared to 2009's totals. You can count on that.

First Rule Of Advanced Hole Management

...is when finding self in hole, STOP DIGGING.

Today's contestant? Michele Bachmann, the lovely GOP Congresswoman who suggested the media should do a major expose' on Congress to see if it's anti-American or not. Not only did this prompt Democrats to give about a million dollars since just last Friday to her challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg, the DNC is in fact matching that million, and now polls show a seat the Dems can now take on November 4.

There weren't enough chairs for the volunteers crammed inside the four-room campaign office Wednesday morning. Every time aides hit "refresh" on their computers, hundreds more online donations appeared. Downstairs, the postal carrier spent 10 minutes trying to cram a two-foot stack of envelopes stuffed with checks into the mail slot.

"It's been raining money," said Beth DeZiel, 39, the campaign's dazed deputy finance director. "There's so much, we can barely keep up. It's unbelievable."

But this unsolicited good fortune -- $1.3 million since Friday -- isn't based on anything the Democratic former mayor and grandfather of seven did. It's all because of something his rival, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, said.

On Friday afternoon, Bachmann appeared on MSNBC's "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and made what has been dubbed the million-dollar mistake: Bachmann, 52, alleged that presidential candidate Barack Obama may hold "anti-American" views, and proposed a media investigation into "the views of the people in Congress [to] find out: Are they pro-America or anti-America?"

While Sen. Obama's presidential bid has transformed the way campaigns use the Internet to reach volunteers and donors, the technology has also become a way for the public to instantly react -- even to races in which they can't vote.

Those quick reactions, often in the form of donations, can influence the outcome of a campaign, said Julie Barko Germany, director of the Institute for Politics, Democracy & the Internet at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management.

Barko German said "the Internet can be an amplifier," enabling viewers to react instantly to something that incites strong support or fury.

"It's an excellent fundraising tool," she added, citing research indicating that "when you show someone a video online, they donate 10% more."

So at this point, you'd think the Hole Management 101 lessons would kick in: you'd expect a candidate in this situation to own up, apologize, and move past the comments that made a decently easy race into a neck-and-neck one.

But you don't know Shelly Bachmann real well, do ya?

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has dug in further on her position that Barack Obama is against America. Bachmann appeared today on the Hugh Hewitt radio show, and had this to say: "And so, he [Chris Matthews] was using the word "Anti-American" and I told Chris, what I question are Barack Obama's views. Because Barack Obama's views are against America." And here's what she said on the Mike Gallagher show: "What are Barack Obama's policies? Are they for America, or will they be against traditional American ideals and values?"

The GOP has decided to cut its losses now and leave Shelly's pedicured foot deep in her own throat, and has now cut off her party ad budget.

A Republican source has confirmed to Election Central that the NRCC is indeed pulling all its advertising for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), whose antics since her McCarthyist rant on Hardball have quickly put this once-safe incumbent in serious danger. Several hundred-thousand dollars worth of TV time had previously been reserved on Bachmann's behalf, but now it has all been cancelled, as Huffington Post first reported.

Bear in mind that Bachmann was heavily favored to win re-election before this whole mess happened, but since then her Democratic opponent has received $1.3 million in online donations and another $1 million in commitments from the DCCC. The national party is now directing its attention to other races.

Bachmann could still potentially win, as this district voted 57%-42% for George W. Bush in 2004. But she's now on her own. It's a rare thing for a national party to totally cut off an incumbent, so this should give you an idea of just how unpopular Bachmann is among Washington Republicans right now.

To cut an incumbent off at the knees like that whose seat is now in trouble just two weeks before an election is absoultely unheard of. When your local Congressional Representative becomes a national punch-line, and that person shows zero political skill in damage control, that person will be jettisoned by the Powers That Be.

The GOP doesn't want to help her at all now. They are abandoning her seat to the Dems just two weeks before the election. Given all the losses the GOP will suffer congressionally this year, she just added one more, and the GOP has no desire to even give a damn. That's amazing, especially given the day before she went on Hardball, polls showed she had only a 4-5 point lead in a district where the third party candidate was getting 6-8% and there were still 15% undecideds.

But that was last week. I'm betting those undecideds are a lot less undecided right now.

See ya, Shelly!

StupidiNews!

• September foreclosure numbers? Up 21% from last year.
• A fourth GOP Senator has come out against GOP robocalls.
• Year-over-year gas prices may be lower for once.
• A technical look at reports that WV touch screen voting machines are flipping votes.
• The Phillies hold on to take Game 1 of the World Series, 3-2.

Whither The Dow?

Dow dropped another 500 points today, despite LIBOR rates clearly lower this week. The Credit crisis is no longer the problem, but dismal 3Q numbers and the prospect of a multi-year recession is scuttling the market.

Stocks fell sharply Wednesday after the latest bevy of big names reporting earnings issued gloomy outlooks or missed their targets altogether.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 514.45, or 5.7 percent, at 8519.21. The blue-chip index saw wild swings and dramatic falls today, particularly in the last half hour: At one point in the final 15 minutes of trading, the Dow was down nearly 700 points.

Today was the Dow's seventh biggest point drop in history. Of the top 10 drops, four have occurred this month. The Dow is now off more than 5600 points, or 40 percent, from its October 9, 2007 high of 14164.53 -- that's twice as much as the 20 percent required to declare a bear market.

"This is the worst first year of a bear market in history," Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial, told CNBC.

Things will only get worse from here. It's a new ball game, folks...and not many of us are going to like the score.

The Science Of Delegitimization

Over at hullabaloo, Digby talks about the coming press backlash against Obama.

This is correct. It's true that the Republicans are on the run and their movement is crippled by the epic failure of the Bush administration. But they have a permanent character assassination apparatus, funded by extremely wealthy aristocrats, devoted solely to the destruction of liberalism. They aren't closing up shop and taking up needlepoint. Indeed, they are much more active when the Republicans are out of power than when they are in.

It's not inevitable that Obama will not have a honeymoon or that the press will become the willing love toys of the rightwing as they did in the 1990s. But it pays to remember that the media were quite in love with Bill Clinton during the last half of that campaign and they turned on a dime once the wingnuts started working the refs in earnest. (You see, as with John McCain, the conservatives didn't care for Bush Sr and were actually quite happy that Clinton won so they could purge the party of its moderates and focus on its "revolution." For them, the way to real power is in being a ruthless opposition.)

So, as Rosenberg writes, this voter fraud nonsense is about legitimacy. Regardless of whether Obama wins a clear victory, the story doesn't stop the day of the election. Indeed, they will be recycling the left's complaints from 2000 almost verbatim making us sputter in rage about the absurdity of such a comparison. And they'll build a powerful myth of victimhood around the phony belief that Democrats steal elections. Lack of faith the in the electoral system serves conservatives far better than it serves liberals.

I honestly think Digby's seriously underestimating what the GOP is capable of. They've lost control of the Haterade Factory, and it's not just the media clucking its tongues at the man for being a dirty, filthy liberal, it's going to be all the news reports on the crazies out there that want Obama gone by any means necessary, and then the media's efforts to cover for them.

"Well gosh, there's a groundswell of anger out there towards President Obama" stories are going to come at a machine-gun clip, as will all the Village Idiots doing their best to dress up the rotting corpses of racism and bigotry in an effort to make them presentable to the rest of us.

They'll just be reporting the news from "real America" or course. The aiding and abetting of the hate against Obama will make the Clinton years look like a picnic.

Somebody's going to try to "save America from Obama" the way Squeaky Fromme and Tim McVeigh did.

Well, My Work Here Is Done

Swiped from Terrence DC over at the Frog Pond, it's this gem.



"Dude, you heard her, we have to stay in there until the job's done."

As Your Sworn Enemy, We Have To Say We Like The Angry Old Guy

It seems our old friends in Al Qaeda would really, really like to see John McAngry in charge of the country after Bush, according to Matt Yglasias.

Interesting Associated Press report on al-Qaeda’s thinking about the upcoming election:

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

Now of course it would be silly for a voter to base his decision on a desire to spite al-Qaeda. The right thing to do is for everyone to reach an independent judgment about whose policies would best advance the public interest. This musing is, however, interesting:

“If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests,” the message said, “this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”

There’s no telling what al-Qaeda is actually capable of doing at this point. But it’s well-known that al-Qaeda does try to influence western elections. We saw it with the Madrid bombings before the Spanish elections, and then we saw it with the October 2004 bin Laden tape that the CIA believes was designed to boost George W. Bush’s re-election fortunes. Al-Qaeda members will probably be able to come up with something to do between now and Election Day to help push things in the direction they prefer.

And that about wraps it up for the McSame campaign, I'm thinking. Even freaking Al Qaeda thinks McSame is a volcanic hothead whom they can manipulate into spending more blood and treasure in Iraq...after all we've already wasted trillions there, not to mention the thousands of American soldiers who were killed fighting a war with no real end in sight. They know McSame will continue Bush's wars...in fact they are counting on it so that they can continue to bankrupt us.

Let's look at what AQ has done: they have caused two recessions, tied us up in two wars, blown all our goodwill, and bankrupted us for a good five trillion plus, all done for the low low price of some martyrs, a couple of f'ckin box cutters, some fake IDs, a video camera, and internet access.

Can we all agree that we're being sandbagged now? Can we agree that McSame is just more Bush? Can we agree we need to ge the hell out of Iraq? Of course AQ wants McSame in charge, so they can give us enough outrage to hang ourselves with.

Our New Campaign Strategy Is Prayer

No, literally, that's Sarah Palin's solution to being 10 points down: not that Americans will do the right thing on November 4, but that God will.

In an interview posted online Wednesday, Sarah Palin told Dr. James Dobson of “Focus on the Family” that she is confident God will do “the right thing for America” on Nov. 4.

Dobson asked the vice presidential hopeful if she is concerned about John McCain’s sagging poll numbers, but Palin stressed that she was “not discouraged at all.”

“To me, it motivates us, makes us work that much harder,” she told the influential Christian leader, whose radio show reaches tens of millions of listeners daily. “And it also strengthens my faith because I know at the end of the day putting this in God’s hands, the right thing for America will be done, at the end of the day on Nov. 4.”

Dobson praised Palin's opposition to abortion rights, to which the governor affirmed that she is “hardcore pro-life.”

She said giving birth to her son Trig, who has Down syndrome, has given her the opportunity “to be walking the walk and not just talking the talk” in her long-standing opposition to abortion.

Dobson — who has never been warm to McCain — asked Palin if her “private conversations” with the Republican nominee had revealed a true commitment to the Republican party’s pro-life platform.

Palin assured Dobson: “John McCain is solidly there on those solid planks in our platform that build the right agenda for America.”

She also thanked her supporters — including Dobson, who said he and his wife were asking “for God’s intervention” on election day — for their prayers of support.

“It is that intercession that is so needed,” she said. “And so greatly appreciated. And I can feel it too, Dr. Dobson. I can feel the power of prayer, and that strength that is provided through our prayer warriors across this nation. And I so appreciate it.”

Yep, God will step in and save America from Barack Obama and the Democrats, she's sure of it.

McSame/Palin are literally down to "divine intervention" as a campaign strategy. Stop and think about that for a second, and what that means, about what Sarah Palain would do if given the chance to pull the levers of power.

It's not God influencing the GOP right now, it's the other guy.

Sarah Pay-lin

Sarah Palin, Alaska's super neato you betcha reformer maverick girl, has a bit of a problem with her own little finance scandal.

Gov. Sarah Palin charged the state for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited, and later amended expense reports to specify that they were on official business.

The charges included costs for hotel and commercial flights for three daughters to join Palin to watch their father in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the governor attended a five-hour conference and stayed with 17-year-old Bristol for five days and four nights in a luxury hotel.

In all, Palin has charged the state $21,012 for her three daughters' 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office in December 2006. She also has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls.

Alaska law does not specifically address expenses for a governor's children. The law allows for payment of expenses for anyone conducting official state business.

As governor, Palin justified having the state pay for the travel of her daughters -- Bristol, 17; Willow, 14; and Piper, 7 -- by noting on travel forms that the girls had been invited to attend or participate in events on the governor's schedule.

But some organizers of these events said they were surprised when the Palin children showed up uninvited, or said they agreed to a request by the governor to allow the children to attend.

Did I say finance scandal, singular? I meant scandals, plural.

Since her selection as John McCain's running mate, the Republican National Committee spent more than $150,000 on clothing and make-up for Gov. Sarah Palin, her husband, and even her infant son, it was reported on Tuesday evening.

That entertaining scoop -- which came by way of Politico -- sent almost immediate reverberations through the presidential race. A statement from McCain headquarters released hours after the article appeared bemoaned the triviality of the whole affair.

"With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it's remarkable that we're spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses," said spokesperson Tracey Schmitt. "It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign."

But even the most timid of Democrats are unlikely to heed this call for civility. For starters, the story has the potential to dampen enthusiasm among GOP activists and donors at a critical point in the presidential race. It also creates a huge PR headache for the McCain ticket as it seeks to make inroads among voters worried about the current economic crisis.

Mainly, however, Democrats (in this scenario) are not prone to forgiveness. After all, it was during this same campaign cycle that Republicans belittled the $400 haircut that former Sen. John Edwards had paid for with his own campaign money (the funds were later reimbursed). And yet, the comparison to that once-dominant news story is hardly close: if Edwards had gotten one of his legendary haircuts every singe week, it would still take him 7.2 years to spend what Palin had. Palin, in the end, had received the equivalent of $2,500 in clothes per day from places such as Saks Fifth Avenue (where RNC expenditures totaled nearly $50,000) and Neiman Marcus (where the governor had a $75,000 spree).

Petty and stupid? Sure. But let's remember Republicans are publicly accusing Democrats of being terrorist sympathizers, Socialists, Communists, they want them investigated for treason, and they accuse them of hating real Americans who believe in God.

The entire Republican Party has been reduced to petty and stupid.

StupidiNews!

• A new poll shows Americans are very unhappy with Hank Paulson and the Uberbailout.
• India launches its first unmanned moon mission.
• The Iraqi Cabinet rejects the US troop plan again, and time is running out before the end of the year.
• Apple tops 10 million iPhones this year.
• Will San Francisco voters decriminalize prostitution?

What's Next For Wall Street?

Another rate cut? Another round of bank credit injections? Something new and exciting?

How about white collar perp walks?

Investors and taxpayers angry about the government bailout of seemingly mismanaged financial firms can probably count on a wave of criminal indictments in the months ahead, say white collar crime experts.

“I think we're going to see some ‘perp’ walks,” says Columbia Law School Professor John Coffee, referring to the law enforcement practice of having the accused appear in public wearing handcuffs.

“I think its coming” says securities lawyer Jacob Zamansky, predicting the “outcry for culprits and scapegoats” will be met.

Zamansky, Coffee and others say the government is now busy investigating likely wrongdoing that took place at dozens of firms and that it is just a matter of time before it yields results. But crisis management is taking precedence.

“The government and the private sector are focused on bailing out the ship right now, and rightly so," says former SEC enforcement official Marvin G. Pickholz, now a partner at the New York law firm Duane Morris.

“I think most resources are being channeled toward solving the current crisis,” adds Harvey Pitt, who chaired the SEC during the government’s crackdown on accounting fraud at the beginning of the decade. "I think it will be months before any prosecutions occur, if at all."

I'm gonna have to go with "sooner" rather than "later." Bush especially is going to want to end his legacy on being populist.

The McSame Negative Attacks Aren't Working

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll is a disaster for McSame.

With two weeks to go until Election Day, Obama now leads his Republican rival by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

McSame is getting killed across the board. Obama is now ahead in PA, VA, and CO...meaning he can win without Florida or Ohio. So what's killing McSame? 3 things: the economy, nobody cares about Bill Ayers, and Sarah Palin's massive negative numbers.

That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

Pause and reflect on that...voters think Sarah Palin is now a larger problem for McSame than President Bush is.

He's done. 10 points with 2 weeks to go? Not going to happen.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

I got a fiver says somebody on the GOP (not a blogger or El Rushbo, but an actual state/national GOP party official or McSame campaign official) denounces Obama's trip to Hawaii as:

1. a campaign stunt to elicit sympathy,
   
2. something that proves just how out of touch Obama is for being able to fly to Hawaii at a moment's notice,
   
3. proof that Obama is using all that "suspect campaign money illegally for personal reasons",
   
4. some combination of the above.

Just sayin.

More LIBOR Fun

LIBOR rates took another sharp decline this morning, the overnight rate is down to 1.58% and both the 1-month and 3-month rates fell 22 basis points. Granted, there's still a lot further to fall, but at least for now the credit emergency does appear to be over.

Now the next emergency begins. Hyper-inflation? Credit card defaults exploding? There are still plenty of shoes left to drop.

So there is now a growing chorus saying that the stock market has bottomed out, that is oversold and this is the time to buy. The problem is that all the possible good news about policy makers doing everything necessary to avoid a meltdown were already priced in the 10% jump in global equities on Monday while, from now on macro news, earnings news for financial and non-financial firms and additional surprises from systemically important components of the global financial system, will mostly surprise on the downside with considerable further downside risks to financial markets. These systemic financial risks include: a major surge in corporate defaults rates and fall in recovery rates as the recession becomes severe thus leading to a further widening of credit spreads; the risk of a CDS market blowout as corporate defaults start to spike; the collapse of hundreds of hedge funds that, while being small individually, will have systemic effects as hundreds of small funds make the size of a few LTCMs in terms of their common deleveraging and selling assets in illiquid markets (as the Wednesday equity meltdown showed); the rising troubles of many insurance companies; a slow motion refinancing and insolvency crisis for many toxic LBOs once covenant-lite clauses and PIK toggles effects fizzle out; the risk that other systemically important financial institutions are insolvent and in need of expensive rescue programs while the $250 bn of recap of banks is way insufficient to deal with their needs; the ongoing process of deleveraging in illiquid financial markets that will continue the vicious circle of falling asset prices, margin calls, further deleveraging and further sales in illiquid markets that continues the cascading fall in asset prices; further downside risks to housing and to home prices pushing over 20 million households into negative equity by 2009; the risk that some significant emerging market economies and some advanced ones too (Iceland) will experience a severe financial crisis.

We're nowhere near done with this mess. Nowhere near.

BarNeo-ConBama

Card-carrying neo-con Ken Adelman is voting for Barack Obama, his first ever vote for a Democrat for President.

Why so, since my views align a lot more with McCain’s than with Obama’s? And since I truly dread the notion of a Democratic president, Democratic House, and hugely Democratic Senate?

Primarily for two reasons, those of temperament and of judgment.

When the economic crisis broke, I found John McCain bouncing all over the place. In those first few crisis days, he was impetuous, inconsistent, and imprudent; ending up just plain weird. Having worked with Ronald Reagan for seven years, and been with him in his critical three summits with Gorbachev, I’ve concluded that that’s no way a president can act under pressure.

Second is judgment. The most important decision John McCain made in his long campaign was deciding on a running mate.

That decision showed appalling lack of judgment. Not only is Sarah Palin not close to being acceptable in high office—I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency. But that selection contradicted McCain’s main two, and best two, themes for his campaign—Country First, and experience counts. Neither can he credibly claim, post-Palin pick.

I sure hope Obama is more open, centrist, sensible—dare I say, Clintonesque—than his liberal record indicates, than his cooperation with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid portends. If not, I will be even more startled by my vote than I am now.

If THAT doesn't raise alarm bells about Obama's foreign policy, the fact that neo-cons are to the point where they are starting to publicly align themselves with Obama, and the fact they are expecting him to be "Clintonesque" (think Bosnia and Somalia), should scare the crap out of you.

If you think Obama will get us out of the quagmire, you need your head examined. Not going to happen. At best Iraq goes on the back-burner for a massive expansion of the war in Afghanistan and most likely into Pakistan as well.

We'll have a whole new quagmire to play with, and you're equally demented if you think Obama will have any more luck "capturing bin Laden."

Anyone bother to stop to wonder what he has in store for the Defense budget?

Not me. Take the one we have and make it bigger. Foreign policy under Obama won't be any different, other than which Muslim country we invade. It might be more competent. I doubt it will be.

StupidiNews!

• Obama will suspend his campaign to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii.
• The GOP admits to an illegal effort to use foreclosure lists in Michigan to turn away voters at the polls.
• The next phase of the bailout could be to prop up housing prices.
• A Republican fundraiser in Florida cheated the military out of $180 million in fuel costs.
• DARPA is building its own search engine for sifting through spy video.