Last Call For Handle The Scandal

Over at Think Progress, Judd Legum argues that while Stormy Daniels is making headlines with her powerful accusations against Donald Trump involving a long-term affair, the real legal and political problem for Trump could be the lawsuit filed by former Playboy playmate Karen McDougal.

In some respects, McDougal’s story is similar to Daniels’. Like Daniels, she met Trump at a 2006 golf tournament in Lake Tahoe. Trump later wined and dined both women at the Beverly Hills Hotel. He promised them both apartments. And then, as election day approached, both women were paid to keep quiet. They were both represented by the same lawyer, Keith Davidson. 

Now, Daniels and McDougal have sued, asking the court to formally invalidate their agreements and let them speak freely. 

But the nature of the agreements signed by Daniels and McDougal are quite different. From a legal perspective, the structure of McDougal’s contract appears to be worse for Trump and his associates. 

Daniels was paid by Trump’s lawyer, while McDougal was paid by a corporation
Daniels was paid $130,000 through a shell corporation set up by Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen. Cohen says he was not reimbursed by the campaign or the Trump Organization and it was something he decided to do on his own — and not to influence the election. Cohen’s story strains credulity, and he has not ruled out the possibility of being reimbursed by Trump personally. 

If it turns out Trump reimbursed Cohen for the payment in an effort to help his election campaign, it would violate election law because it was not reported. But the underlying contribution — $130,000 from Trump to his campaign — is not illegal. Trump is allowed to donate unlimited sums of money to his own campaign. In fact, Trump repeatedly promised to self-fund his entire campaign but ended up raising millions from other sources. 

Daniels argues, among other things, that the contract is invalid because Trump was named as a party and did not sign the agreement. 

McDougal, on the other hand, was paid by a corporation. She was paid $150,000 in August 2016 by American Media Inc., the parent company of the National Enquirer. Direct corporate donations to a campaign are illegal whether they are reported or not. McDougal argues that her contract was invaild for that reason — the purpose of the contract, a corporate donation to benefit the Trump campaign — was illegal.

Oh, but it gets worse for Trump besides the obvious campaign finance issues:

McDougal’s contract, however, was purportedly to give her a platform to speak. It grants the rights for her story about any affairs with married men to A.M.I. and contemplates a number of publicity opportunities for McDougal, including columns and magazine covers. Further, after the agreement was signed, a different attorney was able to negotiate an amendment to McDougal’s contract that allows her to respond to “legitimate press inquires regarding the facts of her relationship with Donald Trump.”

In other words, McDougal most likely can and probably will openly speak about what Donald Trump did to her, more than Daniels will be able to legally say.

If that happens, all bets are off.  Clinton got impeached over a blowjob for Christ's sake, and so help me God if there are pictures of Trump's penis out there that show up in the news, I think we'll get rid of him out of nausea.

Harvey's Revenge On Houston

The worst flooding disaster in modern US history last year when Hurricane Harvey deluged Houston last year also released millions upon millions of gallons of toxic chemicals into the city's water, land, and air.  It turns out the environmental disaster and the toxic health hazard to the people of Houston and the surrounding area is far, far worse than reported six months ago.

A toxic onslaught from the nation’s petrochemical hub was largely overshadowed by the record-shattering deluge of Hurricane Harvey as residents and first responders struggled to save lives and property.

More than a half-year after floodwaters swamped America’s fourth-largest city, the extent of this environmental assault is beginning to surface, while questions about the long-term consequences for human health remain unanswered.

County, state and federal records pieced together by The Associated Press and The Houston Chronicle reveal a far more widespread toxic impact than authorities publicly reported after the storm slammed into the Texas coast in late August and then stalled over the Houston area.

Some 500 chemical plants, 10 refineries and more than 6,670 miles of intertwined oil, gas and chemical pipelines line the nation’s largest energy corridor.

Nearly half a billion gallons of industrial wastewater mixed with storm water surged out of just one chemical plant in Baytown, east of Houston on the upper shores of Galveston Bay.

Benzene, vinyl chloride, butadiene and other known human carcinogens were among the dozens of tons of industrial toxins released into surrounding neighborhoods and waterways following Harvey’s torrential rains.

In all, reporters catalogued more than 100 Harvey-related toxic releases — on land, in water and in the air. Most were never publicized, and in the case of two of the biggest ones, the extent or potential toxicity of the releases was initially understated.

And if you think GOP Gov. Greg Abbott and Texas Republicans are going to lift a finger to hold these companies liable for the toxic waste dump that America's fourth-largest city was turned into, you've not been paying attention.

Only a handful of the industrial spills have been investigated by Texas and federal regulators, reporters found.

Texas regulators say they have investigated 89 incidents, but have yet to announce any enforcement actions.

Testing by state and federal regulators of soil and water for contaminants was largely limited to Superfund toxic waste sites.

Based on widespread air monitoring, including flyovers, officials repeatedly assured the public that post-Harvey air pollution posed no health threat. But the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency official in charge now says these general assessments did not necessarily reflect local “hotspots” with potential risk to people.

Regulators alerted the public to dangers from just two, well-publicized toxic disasters: the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston that exploded and burned for days, and a nearby dioxin-laden federal Superfund site whose protective cap was damaged by the raging San Jacinto River.

Samuel Coleman, who was the EPA’s acting regional administrator during Harvey, said the priority in the immediate aftermath was “addressing any environmental harms as quickly as possible as opposed to making announcements about what the problem was.”

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Of course the state GOP was sitting on this information so that when the cancer and birth defect numbers started to pour in over the next several years they would shrug and blame residents (and cut public health programs some more, probably). 

It'll take years to rebuild, but the environmental damage to Houston and Texas's Gulf Coast will last for decades.

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

The good thing about all these Senate GOP retirements is that it opens up opportunities for the Democrats because right now Republicans are going to run the craziest sunzabitches they can find and Democrats can win with candidates like Doug Jones in southern states.  I know I've been down on the Dems' chances to take back the Senate, but that's because it's a long shot.

However, beating that long shot means Dems have to capitalize on golden opportunities like (of in all the places to find a competitive Senate contest) Tennessee.

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen has a slight edge over U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn in a new poll on the U.S. Senate race from a Democratic-leaning firm. 

The poll, conducted by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, surveyed the views of Tennessee registered voters on the U.S. Senate race, approval of President Donald Trump and health care. 

Forty-six percent of the survey’s respondents said they would vote for Bredesen compared to 41 percent for Blackburn if the election were immediately held. 

Thirteen percent of respondents said they were not sure. 

The poll, which surveyed roughly 1,000 Tennesseans, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Look, I know Marsha Blackburn is a bad candidate, but the GOP is going to run her anyway.  It's Roy Moore all over again for these guys.  Bredesen was a moderately popular governor and most importantly he's not Marsha Blackburn.

If this seat really does open up, it could really help the Dems take back the Senate.  They need to defend everything, a tough road, and still find a way to pick up Arizona and Nevada.  If Tennessee is now in play with Bob Corker retiring, then that takes a lot of pressure off the Dems, they don't have to run the table in order to get to 51.

Besides, resources that the GOP has to spend to defend Tennessee are resources that they won't have to spend elsewhere.

StupidiNews!

• With less than 48 hours until another government shutdown, a bipartisan $1.3 trillion spending bill that will fund the government through September is making its way through both chambers.
• Police say the 17-year-old Maryland student who shot his 16-year-old girlfriend in a school hallway before being shot and killed by a school resource officer on Tuesday used his father's pistol.
• Hamas security forces have a captured a suspect in last week's attempted assassination of Palestinian PM Rami Hamdallah after a gun battle left two security officers dead in Gaza.
• Donald Trump is expected to formally announce $50 billion in yearly targeted tariffs against Chinese imports today, the move is expected to trigger a global trade war.
• The Senate has passed a House bill to combat online sex trafficking, critics say the bill will censor free speech and put web hosting companies out of business.

Last Call For It's Mueller Time, Con't

And we finally get the other shoe to drop in the firing of Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe.

• Emai

Nearly a year before Attorney General Jeff Sessions fired senior FBIofficial Andrew McCabe for what Sessions called a "lack of candor," McCabe oversaw a federal criminal investigation into whether Sessions lacked candor when testifying before Congress about contacts with Russian operatives, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News. 

Democratic lawmakers have repeatedly accused Sessions of misleading them in congressional testimony and called on federal authorities to investigate, but McCabe's previously-unreported decision to actually put the attorney general in the crosshairs of an FBI probe was an exceptional move. 

One source told ABC News that Sessions was not aware of the investigation when he decided to fire McCabe last Friday less than 48 hours before McCabe, a former FBI deputy director, was due to retire from government and obtain a full pension, but an attorney representing Sessions declined to confirm that. 

Last year, several top Republican and Democratic lawmakers were informed of the probe during a closed-door briefing with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and McCabe, ABC News was told.

Jeff Sessions was under investigation, guys.  "Was" being the operative word, however...

By then, Sessions had recused himself from the FBI’s probe of Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election, giving Rosenstein oversight of the growing effort. 

Within weeks, Rosenstein appointed special counsel Robert Mueller to take over the investigation and related inquiries, including the Sessions matter. 

Two months ago, Sessions was interviewed by Mueller's team, and the federal inquiry related to his candor during his confirmation process has since been shuttered, according to a lawyer representing Sessions. 

"The Special Counsel's office has informed me that after interviewing the attorney general and conducting additional investigation, the attorney general is not under investigation for false statements or perjury in his confirmation hearing testimony and related written submissions to Congress," attorney Chuck Cooper told ABC News on Wednesday. 

According to the sources, McCabe authorized the criminal inquiry after a top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vermont, and then-Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., wrote a letter in March 2017 to the FBI urging agents to investigate "all contacts" Sessions may have had with Russians, and "whether any laws were broken in the course of those contacts or in any subsequent discussion of whether they occurred." 

It's unclear how actively federal authorities pursued the matter in the months before Sessions' interview with Mueller’s investigators. It's also unclear whether the special counsel may still be pursuing other matters related to Sessions and statements he has made to Congress – or others – since his confirmation.

Sessions is no longer being investigated for statements to Congress.  That's what we do know.  Whether or not he's being investigated for other matters since becoming AG, well...

Only Mueller knows.  But Andrew McCabe was fired.  That's a fact too.  And less than a week after that happened, we have our first major leak involving McCabe where we only find out now that the FBI was investigating Trump's AG from the word go.

Stay tuned.

The Flake Out Fake Out Continues

Retiring Arizona GOP Sen. Jeff Flake appears to be unfettered by the party of Trump and is saying whatever appears to be on his mind these days in his self-serving exit from the Senate, but at least we have a Republican threatening to take action in case Trump cans Robert Mueller.

Sen. Jeff Flake, one of President Trump’s most prominent Senate critics, told The Washington Post in an interview Tuesday that he would support impeachment proceedings against Trump if the president ends special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election “without cause.”

“We’re begging him: ‘Don’t go down this road. Don’t create a constitutional crisis. Don’t force the Congress to take the only remedy that Congress can take,’ ” said Flake (R-Ariz.). “To remind the president of that is the best way to keep him from going down that road. To fire Mueller without cause, I don’t know if there is any other remedy left to the legislative branch.” 

Flake compared any possible effort by Trump in the coming weeks to end the Mueller probe to President Richard Nixon’s infamous 1973 firing of the special prosecutor during the Watergate scandal.

“If [Trump] fires [Mueller] without cause, how different is that from what Nixon did with the ‘Saturday Night Massacre’?” Flake asked. “He left before impeachment came, but that was the remedy then, and that would be the remedy now.”

It would be.  But Flake isn't actually going to do anything about that knowing full well that impeachment will never get past Paul Ryan in the House this year regardless of what Trump does, and that Flake will already be gone when Democrats most likely take over the House in 2019.

What Flake is actually doing is testing the waters in 2020 to primary Trump, because being in the Beltway for years has somehow convinced him that Never Trump Moderate Republicans still exist.

Flake — who recently traveled to New Hampshire and is considered a potential Trump challenger in the race for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination — said he was speaking up Tuesday about the prospect of impeachment because Republican warnings have been unsuccessful in holding back Trump’s criticism of Mueller’s probe. Flake expressed alarm over how the president’s attacks on the investigation have seemed to escalate over the past week as the president faces mounting legal and political challenges. 

Flake also credited Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) for taking the lead in talking about the possibility of impeachment proceedings — a topic most Republicans are eager to avoid. 

Earlier Tuesday, Graham told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that firing Mueller, “if he did it without cause,” would “probably” be an impeachable offense.

Flake said in the interview: “Nobody wants to talk about it. I don’t want to talk about it. As soon as you mention the i-word, that’s all people want to talk about.”

Flake is about as useful as Graham is too.  Both Senators are supposedly critics of Trump, but Graham supports the Trump position on votes 88% of the time, Flake 86%.  I don't buy Flake's fake out and neither should you.

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

Primary day in Illinois yesterday means that we now know who will be competing in November's races in the Land of Lincoln, and the race for governor will come down to a pair of billionaires.

The race for Illinois governor will be a battle between two deep-pocketed candidates who've already sunk more than $120 million of their own money into the contest, putting it on pace to become the costliest such campaign in U.S. history.

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, a wealthy former private equity investor, defeated conservative state Rep. Jeanne Ives on Tuesday for the GOP nomination.

"We are in a critical time, a critical turning point in Illinois," Rauner told supporters. "I am humbled by this victory. You have given me a chance to win the battle against corruption that plagues Illinois."

He will face Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker, an investor and heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune. Pritzker easily won the primary over Chris Kennedy, the son of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy; and Daniel Biss, 40, a state senator who campaigned as the "middle-class candidate."

Pritzker, 53, already has spent more than $70 million to bankroll his campaign, while Rauner has put in about $50 million and has received millions more from his wealthy friends in the business community. Combined they're expected to top California in 2010 as the nation's most expensive governor's race.

Pritzker is problematic at best, but he's a better choice than Rauner, one of most disliked sitting governors in the nation right now.  Much like Chris Christie's wrecked legacy in New Jersey, this blue-state Republican is leaving a massive fiscal mess behind and he very nearly lost his own primary bid.

In House races, Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski, arguably the bluest of the remaining Blue Dogs, survived his primary against Marie Newman.

Rep. Dan Lipinski, an avid foe of abortion rights and one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, fended off a fierce challenge from the left on Tuesday night in Illinois, all but assuring an eighth term in Congress.

Lipinski narrowly prevailed over businesswoman Marie Newman, 51 to 49, after a bitter campaign battle that pitted the party’s ideological poles against one another. Lipinski was backed heavily by anti-abortion rights groups and by some unions, while Newman boasted endorsements from a host of outside groups on the left in the 3rd District contest.

"I would like to make Mr. Lipinski to have a very painful evening, so we‘re going to wait," Newman told her supporters shortly before midnight, according to news reports, as she declined to concede before the race was called by The Associated Press.

Lipinski's Trump Score, according to FiveThirtyEight, finds him voting along with Donald Trump and the GOP about a third of the time, which for a blue district like his was definitely worth a primary challenge.  It failed this time, but I imagine he's pretty rattled.

And before the "But there's no difference between the parties" idiocy in the cheap seats begins, Illinois Republicans will be running an actual Nazi and Holocaust denier in IL-3.

Arthur Jones, a Holocaust denier described as a Nazi by the Illinois Republican Party, won the Republican primary on Tuesday in the state’s Third Congressional District, a heavily Democratic district that includes part of Chicago and its suburbs, according to The Associated Press.

Mr. Jones, 70, unsuccessfully sought the nomination five times before, and his victory on Tuesday was a foregone conclusion after the Republican Party failed to draft another candidate to enter the race against him.

“Even if only myself and my wife voted for me, I’d win the primary because the Republican Party screwed up big time,” Mr. Jones said in an interview.

The Illinois Republican Party has sought to distance itself from Mr. Jones in recent weeks, blanketing the district with campaign fliers and robocalls urging voters to “stop Illinois Nazis,” according to a robocall script provided by the party. Mr. Jones said he had received three robocalls himself.

“Arthur Jones is not a real Republican — he is a Nazi whose disgusting, bigoted views have no place in our nation’s discourse,” Tim Schneider, the Illinois Republican Party chairman, said in a statement. He said the party had urged voters “to skip over his name when they go to the polls” and moving forward planned on “vehemently opposing Jones with real campaign dollars.”

A spokesman for the Illinois Republican Party said those dollars would be used to support an independent candidate in the November general election. Party leaders are in talks with several potential candidates, the spokesman said, but have not yet decided which one to endorse.

Republicans couldn't find a candidate who wasn't a Nazi by the deadline.  That's who we're up against in November, so keep that in mind.

StupidiNews!

• Austin, Texas police say a suspect in this month's serial bombings of Austin residents of color is dead after being tracked to a hotel north of the city where police say he detonated a device in his car.
• Canada has unveiled stricter gun laws including more thorough background checks and restrictions on convicted violent criminals being able to own a firearm.
• For the first time Israel has admitted to a 2007 airstrike on a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor and warned Iran that Israel will never allow Tehran to develop nuclear weapons.
• Donald Trump may be deposed in a sexual harassment trial after a NY judge refused to dismiss the suit brought by a former contestant on "The Apprentice".
• 2017 saw a slight decrease in US electricity use as Americans are conserving power and the country is getting more electricity from solar, wind, and water.

Blanking Out Manchin

West Virginia Senate Dem Joe Manchin is vulnerable in 2018 to the point where anything national Democrats do will only hurt him.  He's chosen to run against the party and made an effort to support Trump at times in the state where Trump is the most popular.  If Dems are going to lose any Senate seat in 2018 to the GOP, it's going to be his (although Jon Tester in Montana and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota are roughly in the same boat and are in real trouble as well.)

Luckily for the Democrats, Republicans are in full panic mode as the WV GOP is about to pull a Roy Moore and nominate the one guy who would almost certainly lose to Manchin in November, convicted coal baron Don Blankenship.

National Republicans — on the heels of the Roy Moore and Rick Saccone debacles — worry they’re staring down their latest potential midterm election fiasco: coal baron and recent federal prisoner Don Blankenship. 

With Blankenship skyrocketing in the West Virginia Republican Senate primary and blanketing the airwaves with ads assailing his fractured field of rivals as career politicians, senior party officials are wrestling with how, or even whether, to intervene. Many of them are convinced that Blankenship, who served a one-year sentence after the deadly 2010 explosion at his Upper Big Branch Mine, would be a surefire loser against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin — and potentially become a national stain for the party.

The discussions have intensified over the past few weeks. During separate meetings with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, aides to Blankenship’s two primary opponents, Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, pointed to Blankenship’s traction and questioned what could be done to stop him. The Senate GOP campaign arm, which heard out the appeals, recently commissioned a survey to gauge the coal king’s electoral strength and determine his staying power in the race. 

Those familiar with the party’s deliberations say the results are clear: With a little more than a month until the May 8 primary, Blankenship, a towering figure in West Virginia politics long before this campaign and an avid opponent of unions, has vaulted into essentially a three-way tie with his rivals and is positioned to move ahead.

Blankenship is essentially buying a Senate office in the poorest state in the nation.

Blankenship’s rise has been driven in part by his self-financed TV ads. Since launching his campaign in late November, Blankenship has spent over $1.1 million on roughly a dozen commercials, according to media buying totals, far surpassing his opponents. Morrisey has so far spent nothing on TV ads and Jenkins only about $38,000. 

Blankenship has used the ads to paint his rivals as insufficiently conservative, blasting Jenkins over his positions on Obamacare and climate change and Morrisey on abortion. He’s positioned himself as an unshakable ally of President Donald Trump, who received 68 percent of the vote in the state. 

Yet he has also undertaken an effort to clear his name. 

The spots have accused the Obama administration and Manchin — who was governor at the time of the mine disaster and has said Blankenship has “blood on his hands” — of conspiring to imprison him. He has also featured testimonials from his daughter, Jennifer, who’s described her father as a soft-hearted family man and provider for West Virginians. 

Even before he entered the race late last year, Blankenship was a familiar face on West Virginia TV sets. After being released from prison in 2017, he invested around $600,000 on a slate of commercials aimed at redeeming himself. 

“He’s running ads, he has money. He’s not a wallflower,” said Hoppy Kercheval, an influential radio show host in the state. “He’s a puncher and a counterpuncher.” 

“He’s the guy that’s on the move. He’s the guy that’s gaining traction in this wide open race,” Kercheval added. “I think it has this everyman appeal in West Virginia.”

Sure, because the average "everyman" in West Virginia is a billionaire coal magnate whose lax corporate safety record resulted in the deaths of 29 people.

Please proceed, WV GOP.

It's Mueller Time, Con't

But for how much longer?

Republican strategist Rick Tyler asserted on Monday that President Donald Trump will eventually find a way to fire special counsel Robert Mueller and Republicans in Congress will do “nothing” about it.

During a panel discussion on MSNBC, host Stephanie Ruhle asked Tyler if Trump was running a campaign to “discredit” special counsel Robert Mueller.

“Here’s what’s going to happen, I’m going to go out on a limb,” Tyler began. “The president has calculated now — and I think it’s true — is the reaction from the Republicans. He is going to fire Robert Mueller. And you know what’s going to happen? Nothing. That’s what’s going to happen. There will be no response from Republican leadership, from Congress.”

Tyler continued as the other guests looked on in amazement.

“He is now going about — the reason to fire [former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe], the reason to deny him his retirement is he has to discredit him,” Tyler said. “And he has to systematically discredit everybody who’s involved in this Russia investigation. And he has now seen that he can do these things without any recourse. The Congress is not going to rein him in.”

The GOP strategist predicted Mueller’s firing would come “sooner rather than later, before he can get any further… on money laundering or other tangential issues.”

Every bone in my body tells me that Rick Tyler is correct on the first count and 99.97% correct on the second.  Now, what happens after that will decide whether or not we get to, as Ben Franklin warned, still maintain "a republic, if you can keep it."

Mueller is closing in, so Trump will move quickly once he exhausts his thinly veiled hints that Mueller should end the investigation.

President Trump’s attorneys have provided the special counsel’s office with written descriptions that chronicle key moments under investigation in hopes of curtailing the scope of a presidential interview, according to two people familiar with the situation.

Trump’s legal team recently shared the documents in an effort to limit any session between the president and special counsel Robert S. Mueller III to a few select topics, the people said. The lawyers are worried that Trump, who has a penchant for making erroneous claims, would be vulnerable in an hours-long interview.

The decision to share materials with Mueller’s team is part of an effort by Trump’s lawyers to minimize his exposure to the special counsel, whom the president recently attacked in a series of tweets.

Trump has told aides he is “champing at the bit” to sit for an interview, according to one person. But his lawyers, who are carefully negotiating the terms of a sit-down, recognize the extraordinarily high stakes.

As part of his investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, Mueller is probing whether Trump’s campaign coordinated with Russia and whether the president obstructed justice by trying to block the investigation. In particular, his team is focused on Trump’s firing of his national security adviser and the FBI director, according to people familiar with the inquiry.

When it becomes clear that Mueller will not stick to those "few select topics" (which consist of how everyone but Trump and his family are guilty) and that Mueller will proceed into the Russian lection meddling and money laundering, and the obstruction of justice by Trump, he'll make the order out of increasingly unstable rage and then expect his lackeys to clean up the mess.

That fight, when it comes, will determine the future of America as a democracy or something far more sinister and authoritarian.

StupidiNews!

• The hunt for a serial bomber targeting African-American families in Austin, Texas continues as a fifth package exploded at a FedEx sorting facility, the package was heading for Austin.
• The US Supreme Court has declined to block a Pennsylvania state supreme court order of the state's new congressional district map, state Republicans say they will appeal the decision.
• The Trump regime wants to make it easier to export military combat drones to US allies and partners, US drone makers have lobbied hard for the changes to compete with China and Israel.
• The first of Trump's major tariffs will target $60 billion in yearly Chinese imports this week in retaliation for IP theft, a move China says it will take "necessary steps" to counter.
• Police in Arizona say that an Uber autonomous vehicle was likely not at fault in Sunday's fatal accident in Tempe where a pedestrian was struck and killed.

Last Call For Race To The Bottom

A groundbreaking new Harvard study of my generation (late Gen X/early millennials born from 1978-1983) finds that even when black men come from wealthy families, have similar education to white men, have similar family situations with stable two parent households, and even coming from families with similar net worth, they earn significantly less than white men.

Black boys raised in America, even in the wealthiest families and living in some of the most well-to-do neighborhoods, still earn less in adulthood than white boys with similar backgrounds, according to a sweeping new study that traced the lives of millions of children.

White boys who grow up rich are likely to remain that way. Black boys raised at the top, however, are more likely to become poor than to stay wealthy in their own adult households.

Even when children grow up next to each other with parents who earn similar incomes, black boys fare worse than white boys in 99 percent of America. And the gaps only worsen in the kind of neighborhoods that promise low poverty and good schools.

According to the study, led by researchers at Stanford, Harvard and the Census Bureau, income inequality between blacks and whites is driven entirely by what is happening among these boys and the men they become. Black and white girls from families with comparable earnings attain similar individual incomes as adults.

“You would have thought at some point you escape the poverty trap,” said Nathaniel Hendren, a Harvard economist and an author of the study.

Black boys — even rich black boys — can seemingly never assume that.

The study, based on anonymous earnings and demographic data for virtually all Americans now in their late 30s, debunks a number of other widely held hypotheses about income inequality. Gaps persisted even when black and white boys grew up in families with the same income, similar family structures, similar education levels and even similar levels of accumulated wealth.

The disparities that remain also can’t be explained by differences in cognitive ability, an argument made by people who cite racial gaps in test scores that appear for both black boys and girls. If such inherent differences existed by race, “you’ve got to explain to me why these putative ability differences aren’t handicapping women,” said David Grusky, a Stanford sociologist who has reviewed the research.

A more likely possibility, the authors suggest, is that test scores don’t accurately measure the abilities of black children in the first place.

If this inequality can’t be explained by individual or household traits, much of what matters probably lies outside the home — in surrounding neighborhoods, in the economy and in a society that views black boys differently from white boys, and even from black girls.

“One of the most popular liberal post-racial ideas is the idea that the fundamental problem is class and not race, and clearly this study explodes that idea,” said Ibram Kendi, a professor and director of the Antiracist Research and Policy Center at American University. “But for whatever reason, we’re unwilling to stare racism in the face.”

The disparity is so bad that black boys from wealthy families end up earning about the same as white men from working-class families, if not less.  The study also finds that white boys from working-class families have a significantly better chance of being wealthy than black boys do.

The most interesting finding is that the race gap doesn't exist between black and white girls from wealthy families...but both groups earn significantly less than white men.  But here's what killed me when I read it:

The new data shows that 21 percent of black men raised at the very bottom were incarcerated, according to a snapshot of a single day during the 2010 census. Black men raised in the top 1 percent — by millionaires — were as likely to be incarcerated as white men raised in households earning about $36,000.

 More than 20% of black boys from the poorest families in America end up in prison.

Oh, and black Americans of my age group are considerably less likely to be married.  Black kids from the top 1% of families are less likely to be married than 80% of white kids.

The system is broken and it has been for decades.  Or rather, it's working as designed to generate plenty of "product" for the prison industry.

But what this study does is put to rest the zombie lie that somehow white Americans are being discriminated against, that it's hard to be white in America, and that black Americans are somehow getting all the special treatment.  We've got an entire political party built on that lie currently, and the most racist president since the Civil War (although Woodrow Wilson remains high on that particular list) and for now it has near total control of the country.

Maybe this will start to change peoples' minds, but when has America ever paid attention to fact on race?

Meanwhile In Bevinstan...

Things aren't going very well for Kentucky GOP Gov. Matt Bevin.  He figured by this point in 2018 he'd have both his pension bill that takes the retirements of thousands of Kentucky teachers taken out back and shot, and that his across-the-board state budget austerity cuts would be well in hand with the new GOP majority in Frankfort.

Then reality happened.

Kentucky House Speaker Jeff Hoover's career imploded after he resigned the speaker's post over a sexual harassment scandal, un-resigned, then resigned again after the furor got too much to handle.  Republican State Rep. Dan Johnson got caught in his own sexual assault scandal, committed suicide, and his wife ran for his seat and lost to a Democratic teacher in the special election to replace him.  Now it looks like the pension bill, Bevin's crowning achievement in the field of punishing those evil, greedy, overpaid teachers, is dead on arrival and Bevin is going to take the blame for stepping on his own crank.

Senate Bill 1 would end traditional pensions for future teachers and cut retired teachers’ cost-of-living allowances, among other cost-saving changes.

Senate leadership has said it will be difficult to pass such a bill before the legislative session ends April 13. 

“It has a very limited and difficult path forward at this point in time,” Senate President Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, said Wednesday. 

Bevin pointed out that he has fully funded the system, which had gone years without full funding. 

But he said continuing to put more and more money in without structural change would be “like putting water into a bucket with a hole in the bottom of it. ...We have to patch the bottom of the bucket in this case before we fill it up.” 

The video statement came just days after Bevin’s comments in a radio interview drew outrage from teachers. 

On Tuesday while speaking to a Campbellsville radio station, Bevin said teachers who oppose Senate Bill 1 were “selfish” and “ignorant,” and he compared them to disloyal Americans who hoarded rationed goods during World War II. 

“This would be like people having mass demonstrations about, ‘No I want my butter, I want my sugar, I’m going to keep all my steel and my rubber and my copper, and to heck with the rest of you people, you better keep giving me mine,’” Bevin said. “...It’s just straight up about wanting more than your fair share.” 

Teachers responded Thursday, speaking out against the governor’s characterization at “walk-in” rallies in protest of SB 1. 

Bevin said in the video Saturday that he has “tremendous respect for those of you who are teaching.”

Too little, too late.  Bevin's trying to save his cuts, but even in Kentucky, Republicans can and will get burned as the Trump effect drowns the GOP nationwide and they know it.  Republicans in Kentucky already have horrific press here this year, and "passing a bill to wreck teachers" on top of two massive sexual misconduct scandals and Bevin being a giant asshole just might be enough to actually hand the House back to the Dems.  Maybe.  (That's a long shot.)

But that's how bad things have gotten for Kentucky Republicans this year.

Oh, and the budget is still a complete disaster.

The Senate has no plans to raise taxes on painkillers and cigarettes — a move the House approved to raise about $500 million over the next two years for education and other programs. 

The Republican-led Senate is in the process of writing its own version of the state’s two-year budget, but leaders won’t yet say what their decision to jettison the proposed tax increases means for education. 

“I don’t know about that. You’ll have to wait and see our budget,” Senate President Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, told reporters Friday after voicing opposition to the tax increases. 

Senate Majority Leader Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown, said Friday the full Senate is expected to vote on its budget bill next Tuesday or Wednesday after it is approved by the Senate budget committee. 

Republican House leaders said the extra money by their proposed tax package would be used largely to reverse spending cuts to education programs proposed by Gov. Matt Bevin, also a Republican. 

The House plan includes raising the tax on a pack of cigarettes by 50 cents to $1.10 and levying a 25 cent tax on prescription opioids each time a dosage is sold by a distributor to a pharmacy, the first such tax in the country. 

With the extra revenue, the House offered more to education than Bevin proposed, including funding for transportation at K-12 schools, a state subsidy of health insurance costs for retired teachers who aren’t old enough to qualify for Medicare, the main funding formula for schools and public universities. 

Stivers said there is “a real question” about the legality of taxing opioids. He said the tax on cigarettes would not be good policy because it would be based on a shrinking source of revenue. 

Once the Senate approves its budget bill, a conference committee made up of leaders from the House and Senate, will be formed to iron out differences between the two chambers.

Half a billion dollars in new taxes on Kentucky smokers (and yeah, we have one of the highest smoking rates in the nation at 30%)  isn't going to win over a lot of friends I'm thinking, not to mention taxing prescription painkillers even being legal.  Vice taxes are regressive, period, and it's only going to hurt people in the long run.

In the short run, who knows what the Kentucky Senate will do.  Kentucky is an economic disaster right now, and the blame falls squarely on Matt Bevin's "leadership".

The Return Of The Revenge Of Shutdown Countdown

It's that time of year again as the six-week punt by Republicans in February still means that without a spending bill by the end of the week, the government shuts down again (and Mitch McConnell definitely hasn't met his promise on DACA funding.)  The catch is both sides know election season is imminent and the GOP can't have this mess around their necks, which means Democrats are holding a lot of leverage this time.

The House and Senate need to pass their massive 2018 spending bill before the government shuts down on Friday. Senior sources from both parties on Capitol Hill tell me they expect they'll get the deal done — though there's plenty of last minute haggling.

The big picture: This spending bill will cost more than $1 trillion and will further add to the deficit, which is likely to reach at least $800 billion for the 2018 fiscal year. Republican leaders and Trump will sell the spending package as a much-needed boost to military spending. House defense hawks, led by House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry, campaigned aggressively for this boost. And Democrats will rightly be thrilled that they've forced Republicans to capitulate to fund so many of their domestic priorities.

But fiscal conservatives are furious. "[Leadership is] going to say we funded our defense," one conservative House member told me. "And they will ignore the fact they've bankrupted our country in the process."

"People will start to say 'Why does it matter who's in power'?" added the member, who asked for anonymity because the bill has not been published yet.

Behind-the-scenes: During a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill last week, a deeply frustrated conservative House member said he wanted to introduce a motion to rename this week's spending bill the "2018 base voter suppression bill," according to a source in the room. We expect that the ultra conservative House Freedom Caucus members will vote against the bill, and that the deal will ride through with Democratic votes. (A common view within leadership and the administration is that the Freedom Caucus was never going to vote for the bill anyway.)

Which would mean that in the end, Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats beat the House GOP Freedom Caucus.

Again. 

Republicans are going to have a really tough sale on a budget that starts at the point where we start at an $800 billion deficit a year and those massive, massive cuts that Paul Ryan wanted?  He'll get some, but nowhere near what he wanted.  And with the very real likelihood that Ryan will no longer be Speaker come January, he knows he has lost his last chance.

Maybe Pelosi's good at her job, guys?  Just saying.  

StupidiNews!

• A helicopter carrying Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner returned to Reagan airport in Washington DC safely after an on-board engine failure Thursday.
• A new United Nations report on water development finds that half the world's 7 billion people live in an area where water is scarce for at least one month out of the year.
• Police in Austin, Texas are treating an explosion that injured two men on bicycles as related to a series of three previous bombings of people of color in the Texas capital this month.
• Claire's Stores, which operates nearly 2,000 locations in the US and Canada, is the latest victim of the retail meltdown as the chain voluntarily declared Chapter 11 while searching for a buyer.
• Adrian Lamo, the former hacker who turned in Chelsea Manning to the FBI in 2010, is dead at the age of 37, Lamo's family is not commenting on the nature of his death.