The Beard Tentacles of Sanity reach and grasp on the conventional wisdom of the elections, and
even steady K-Thug admits he was a bit off as the drama has turned into a farce.
The conventional wisdom — which I too bought into — was that Democrats were going to support Obama, but grudgingly and without much enthusiasm.
There had been too many disappointments; the golden aura of 2008 was
long gone. Meanwhile, Republicans would show their usual unity and
discipline, and at best it would be Obama by a nose.
Instead,
the Republicans appear to be in a shambles — while the Democrats seem
incredibly united, and increasingly, dare I say it, enthusiastic. (Mark Blumenthal sees this in the polls, but it’s also just the impression you get.)
How
did that happen? Partly it’s because this has become such an
ideological election — much more so than 2008. The GOP has made it clear
that it has a very different vision of what America should be than that
of Democrats, and Democrats have rallied around their cause. Among
other things, while we weren’t looking, social issues became a source
of Democratic strength, not weakness — partly because the country has
changed, partly because the Democrats have finally worked up the nerve
to stand squarely for things like reproductive rights.
Gosh, you mean 2010
wasn't
the beginning of the new order at the hands of the Tea Party as
American voters realized that yes, the GOP was wrecking the economy on
purpose in order to try to win, and that their social derpwinism was
really the last gasps of a clusterfrak of nimrods playing the white
hetero male privilege game in disguise? If only people had known!
And
let me add a speculation: I suspect that in the end Obamacare is
turning out to be a big plus, even though it has always had ambivalent
polling. The fact is that Obama can point to a big achievement
that will survive if he is reelected, perish if he isn’t; health
insurance for 50 million or so Americans (30 million from the ACA,
another 20 who would lose coverage if Romney/Ryan Medicaid cuts happen)
is enough to cure people of the notion that it doesn’t matter who wins.
All
of this in turn has an implication that Republicans won’t like —
assuming that Rasmussen doesn’t have a special insight into the truth
denied to all other pollsters, and that Obama does in fact win with a
solid margin. The right is already set up to blame poor Mitt, claiming
that he lost because he wasn’t conservative enough. But that’s not what we’re seeing; it looks as if voters are rejecting the right’s whole package, not just the messenger.
Now if we could only cure the Village of the stupid notion that mid-term elections always determine the Presidential ones.
Seriously,
this is what I've been yelling about around here for a year now (along
with the GOP campaign of voter suppression) that Republicans were just
going to overreach and screw everything up, or at least Mitt Romney's
47% exercise finally got through to the millions of folks who said "But
Romney's a moderate, he won't take anything away from me, just
those people." And of course, we found out that anyone making less than a quarter mil a year is very much "
those
people" to Mittens. People don't like finding out the odds are not
ever in their favor. It's a new thing to a healthy chunk of the voting
populace, and
no sir, they do not like it.
Camera Bartender Guy, wherever you are, America salutes you.
