Ted Cruz admitted to Sean Hannity back in July that "If we don't [defund Obamacare] now, in all likelihood, Obamacare will never, ever be repealed. Why is that? Because on January 1, the exchanges kick in, the subsidies kick in," and they'll be unable to take away something people are benefiting from. And he's surely not the only Republican who gets this, which is part of the explanation for the ferocity with which they're fighting now. But in our future scenario, the fight over the law will be basically over. There might be some debates about adjusting parts of the law, as Democrats will want to do, but that won't concern Republicans too much. Once there's no possibility left that it can be killed, they'll likely lose interest.
I think that's the most plausible picture of what things will be like in, say, 2015. The question is, if eventually they have no choice but to accept that the argument over the ACA is settled, what on earth will Republicans do with themselves? Because over the last four years, opposition to Obamacare has taken on such an extraordinary power within the movement that all other issues have paled before it.
Sure, they could revert to the old standbys—Cut taxes! Cut regulations! Strong defense! But those are just positions you can take. Obamacare was a war to be fought. And nothing galvanizes, energizes, and defines us like our wars. That's particularly true of the zealots who are driving the Republican party and form such a key part of its base. And if they aren't fighting Obamacare, who will they be?
In 2015, Barack Obama will still be President. Obamacare represents the end of the GOP. Therefore, the war against Obamacare will not end until, minimum, January 20, 2017. After that, Republicans will do everything they can to "fix" Obamacare and take 100% of the credit.
Will Democrats and the media let them?
There's the real question.
