Wednesday, February 17, 2016

This Is Sparta(nburg), Con't

If the Public Policy Polling survey of SC voters ahead of Saturday's primary is any indication, America is in for a delicious treat of pecan pralines and racism.

PPP's new South Carolina poll continues to find Donald Trump with a wide lead in the state. He's at 35% to 18% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 10% for John Kasich, and 7% each for Jeb Bush and Ben Carson. 
What's striking about Trump's support is how consistent it is across different demographic groups- he's at 41% with 'somewhat conservative' voters, 40% with younger voters, 38% with men, 36% with self identified Republicans, 35% with Evangelicals, 35% with middle aged voters, 34% with non-Evangelicals, 31% with women, 30% with self identified independents, 30% with 'very conservative' voters, 30% with seniors, and 29% with moderates. He has a lead of some size within every single one of those groups, similar to what he was able to do in New Hampshire
The race is still pretty fluid in South Carolina- 29% of voters say they might change their minds between now and Election Day. Trump benefits from having supporters who are pretty resolute though- 77% of them say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 76% for Cruz and 62% for Rubio. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up, Trump's support goes up to 40% to 20% for Cruz and 16% for Rubio.

Clinton too has a big lead in the state,

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 55/34. South Carolina exemplifies the way in which the Democratic race changes in places where there's a large African American electorate. Clinton and Sanders are tied with white voters at 46%, pretty similar to how the race played out in Iowa. But among African Americans Clinton continues to have a substantial advantage over Sanders at 63/23. Clinton is very popular among black voters with a 71/12 favorability, while feelings about Sanders continue to be pretty mixed with him coming in at 39/33. 
South Carolina's being an open primary works to Sanders' advantage. Clinton is up 31 with actual Democrats, 60/29, but Sanders cuts a lot into her advantage thanks to a 55/27 lead with the independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary. Some of the other customary big demographic splits we've seen in other places present themselves in South Carolina as well- Sanders is up 45/43 with men and 44/42 with younger voters, but that is more than drowned out by Clinton's 64/25 advantage with women and 70/20 one with seniors.

But the real fun is down in the crosstab swamps, and woo boy, is it a hog lagoon and a half down here (PDF) when we get to the GOP primary voters.

Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George W. Bush?
Favorable........................................................ 64%
Unfavorable .................................................... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 11% 
Q20 Would you support or oppose banning Muslims
from entering the United States?
Support banning Muslims from entering the
United States ..................................................60%
Oppose banning Muslims from entering the
United States ..................................................23%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Nice.  It gets better.

Q22 Would you support or oppose shutting down
mosques in the United States?
Support shutting down mosques in the United
States .............................................................29%
Oppose shutting down mosques in the United
States .............................................................47%
Not sure .......................................................... 24% 
Q23 Would you support or oppose creating a
national database of Muslims in the United
States?
Support a national database of Muslims in
the United States ............................................47%
Oppose a national database of Muslims in
the United States ............................................36%
Not sure .......................................................... 17% 
Q24 Do you think the religion of Islam should be
legal or illegal in the United States?
Islam should be legal in the United States ...... 53%
Islam should be illegal in the United States .... 25%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

And then it gets amazing.

Q26 Do you support or oppose the Confederate flag
hanging on the capital grounds?
Support the Confederate flag hanging on the
capital grounds ...............................................54%
Oppose the Confederate flag hanging on the
capital grounds ...............................................32%
Not sure .......................................................... 14% 
Q27 Are you glad that the North won the Civil War,
or do you wish that the South had won?
Glad the North won......................................... 36%
Wish the South had won................................. 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 35%
Q28 In general do you think that whites are a
superior race, or not?
Whites are a superior race.............................. 10%
Whites are not a superior race........................ 78%
Not sure .......................................................... 11% 
Q29 Do you prefer mustard, tomato, or vinegar
based barbecue sauce?
Mustard based ................................................ 26%
Tomato based ................................................. 31%
Vinegar based................................................. 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Racism and barbecue, baby!

When you're still angry or at least indifferent about the outcome of the damn Civil War and support the Confederate Flag O' Traitors on your state's capitol, you really do need to reassess your life in the year 2016.  Also, screw vinegar based barbecue sauce.  The Carolinas are famous for it and it's *awful*.

Never change, Palmetto State.  Never change.


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