Last Call For Beshear Audacity Of It All, Con't

Democratic KY Gov. Andy Beshear comfortably won reelection over Republican AG Daniel Cameron tonight.

Gov. Andy Beshear has won the Kentucky governor’s race, beating his Trump-endorsed challenger, Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, to secure a second term. 

Major news outlets, including CNN, declared Beshear the winner just before 9 p.m. 

The 45-year-old Beshear, the son of former Kentucky governor Steve Beshear, is the first Democratic governor to win reelection in the commonwealth since 2011, when his father accomplished the same feat.

 

In one of the nation’s most expensive political campaigns, where nearly $74 million was raised and spent, Beshear maintained a high level of popularity in his first term as governor despite being a Democrat in Kentucky’s increasingly Republican-leaning political climate. 

In his re-election pitch to voters, Beshear touted his moderate views, an “economy on fire,” support for public education and leadership during times of crisis, including the COVID-19 global pandemic, devastating tornadoes and horrific floods that ravaged parts of Eastern Kentucky. 

In its final weeks, the campaign turned ugly. Cameron, 37, criticized Kentucky’s development trends under Beshear’s watch, saying that the Democrat was exaggerating the vitality of the state’s economy. He also repeatedly linked Beshear to President Joe Biden, who is deeply unpopular in the commonwealth.

Kentucky overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race, beating Biden by nearly a 26-point margin. Beshear blunted Cameron’s strategy and painted himself as being above the partisan fray. He touted his bipartisan manner and his commitment to “Team Kentucky” instead of specific political parties. 

‘“My opponent is trying to nationalize the race because he knows if it’s me against him, he will not win,” Beshear said a little more than a week before Election Day. “So, he’s trying to confuse people, to make them think this is the race for president. It’s not. This is about us. It’s about Kentucky.”

In a final blast on social media Monday night, Beshear told supporters: “It’s time to send a message to the entire country that anger politics won’t win elections.”

Cameron's pitch didn't work. Too many people like Andy Beshear and they came out to vote for him.

The answer to the question of how Democrats can win in red states and win rural voters in 2024 is "Do what Andy Beshear did in 2023."

Vote Like Your Country Depends On It, Con't

It's Election Day, and here in Kentucky we're hoping to re-elect Democratic Gov. Andy Behear to a second term.

 

Republicans are hoping to sink Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear's reelection bid on Tuesday by tying him to the widely unpopular President Joe Biden.

But in this ruby red state that Biden lost by more than 25 points three years ago, Beshear appears to be offering Democrats hope of local success amid party-wide handwringing: voters supporting both Beshear and his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, told ABC News that the governor's brand was strong enough to blunt any ties to the White House.

"Andy Beshear is a more liberal Democrat than the average Kentucky Democrat. Kentucky Democrats are pretty conservative. Now, is he the clone of Joe Biden? No," said Steve Megerle, an attorney and lifelong Republican in Fort Thomas, who said he is debating between voting for Beshear and leaving the governor's line blank on Tuesday.

"I probably don't see Beshear as bad as Biden," Carol Taylor told ABC News at a Cameron campaign event in Richmond. "I don't think I can say anything good about [Biden]."

To be sure, Beshear's reelection is no sure thing. A former state attorney general and son of a former governor, he narrowly won his first term in 2019 against an unpopular incumbent Republican and, given how the state usually votes, he'll have to win over a large swath of conservatives to stay in office, with recent polling previewing a neck-and-neck race.

But interviews with more than 20 operatives and voters of both parties revealed a lack of the kind of vitriol about Beshear that is usually evident when a governor is about to be unseated.

The trend could prove notable for other down-ballot Democrats in 2024 as they try to persuade voters to view them separately from Biden while sharing a ticket with him.

The governor's race could also show some signs of how Democrats will fare next year both in House seats the party holds where Donald Trump also won and in Senate races in Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, which like Kentucky often vote for Republicans.

 

And speaking of Ohio, over the river voters will go to the polls there to decide on abortion rights and legalized marijuana. 

Columbus area residents Beth and Kyle Long held hands as they walked into the Franklin County early voting center to cast their ballots for Issue 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion and other reproductive rights into the state's constitution.

Beth, now 18 weeks pregnant after in vitro fertilization, is at the same point in her pregnancy as she was in January when she got an abortion after learning the fetus she was carrying had a fatal condition.

"The doctors came back and told us, 'all of her organs, except her heart, are growing on the outside of her, enmeshed in the placenta," she told NPR. "'[They said] there is nothing we can do to go through and separate that. No fetus has ever survived this condition, and yours will not be the first.'"

The Longs were featured in an ad for Issue 1, one of many that have dominated the air waves in a contest that many view as a critical precursor to the 2024 elections.

"I think it's important for us to know that no one else here in Ohio has to go through what we went through," Kyle Long said before voting.

If voters approve the measure, which is similar to one passed in Michigan last year, Ohio would become the seventh state to pass abortion rights since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer.

 

Ohio Republicans have done everything they can to confuse, befuddle, obfuscate and cheat on Issue 1. Vote Yes, Ohio!

Beshear Audacity Of It All, Con't

The same Emerson College poll from last month that showed Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear with a commanding double-digit lead now shows Beshear tied with GOP AG Daniel Cameron 47-47% heading into Election Day on Tuesday.

The final Emerson College Polling survey of Kentucky voters before the 2023 gubernatorial general election finds incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron in a dead heat: 47% support Beshear and 47% support Cameron. Two percent support someone else and 4% are undecided. Undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward at this time; with their support accounted for, Cameron holds a slight advantage with 49% support to Beshear’s 48%.

Since last month’s poll of registered Kentucky voters, Beshear’s initial support has decreased by two points, 49% to 47%, while support for Cameron increased 14 points from 33% to 47%. Undecided voters have reduced by nine points, from 13% undecided to 4% ahead of the Tuesday election.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase. Notably, October’s poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky.”

Support for Cameron has increased among older voters in Kentucky since the October poll. A majority of voters (58%) ages 50-69 now support Cameron for governor, a 22-point increase from October, where Cameron held 36% support among the same age group. Beshear’s support among 50-69-year-olds has dropped 9 points since October, from 49% to 40%.

Independent voters remain split between the two candidates; 48% support Cameron, while 46% support Beshear. Six percent would vote for someone else.

A majority of voters (57%) expect Governor Beshear to be re-elected, while 41% think the Attorney General will win.

Kentucky voters oppose the current state laws that ban abortion in nearly all cases, with no exception for rape or incest, 55% to 28% who support it; 17% are unsure.

“Majorities of both men and women voters oppose the abortion law,” Kimball said. “Fifty-two percent of men and 58% of women voters oppose the laws, while support is relatively similar: 30% of male voters and 28% of women voters support the abortion laws.”

Three-quarters (75%) of Democrats in Kentucky oppose the current abortion laws, while a plurality of independents (47%) say the same. Republicans are more divided on the issue; a plurality (42%) support the no-exception abortion laws, while 37% oppose, and 21% are unsure.

“The strongest opposition to the abortion law is among voters under 30 at 68%, opposition decreases with age culminating with voters 70 years of age and older at 52% in opposition to the law,” Kimball noted. “Support for state abortion laws is highest among voters ages 50 to 59 at 37%.”

A significant majority (83%) of voters who support Andy Beshear for governor oppose the state’s no-exception abortion laws. In comparison, a slight majority (51%) of voters who support Cameron support the state’s abortion laws.

 

Beshear has been hitting Cameron hard on the the unpopular abortion ban here. But Cameron has been hitting Beshear back with the even more unpopular Joe Biden. The President is...not...popular here in the Commonwealth, and that's just fact.  The most recent Morning Consult poll finds Biden's popularity here at 23%.

Cameron hasn't missed a chance to compare Beshear to "Washington liberals like Biden and Pelosi" in the last six weeks and it's working. The ads have been running non-stop. You'd think Kentucky was Times Square in 1978 or something with all the crime and drugs in Cameron's ads, but they are certainly rallying the GOP base here.

But the fact that Beshear has an even chance of winning Tuesday shows you just how well he's liked in a state that hates Biden. Even 41% of Republicans think he's doing a good job, as opposed to the 4% of Republicans who think Biden is doing a good job here in Kentucky.

I still think Beshear will win, but it's going to be close. Early voting is underway here in KY through today. Get that ballot in today or Tuesday.

We need you. Vote like your country depends on it, because it does.

Coal Plant Collapse In Kentucky

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has declared a state of emergency in Martin Count on the border with WV after a coal plant facility building collapsed last night and officials are telling folks to expect the worst.

One is confirmed dead following a building collapse at an idled coal production plant in Martin County that trapped two workers Tuesday evening, according to the Martin County Sheriff’s Office.

Early Wednesday morning, Gov. Andy Beshear declared a State of Emergency as crews continued to search for the trapped workers.

Gov. Beshear announced the State of Emergency on social media.

The collapse at the idled coal production plant was reported around 6:30 p.m. Tuesday.

Just more than 15 minutes later, first responders arrived to find a more than 10-story coal preparation plant had collapsed while the men were working inside to prepare the structure for demolition.

Sheriff Kirk explained that the coal preparation plant had been idle for some time. He said the two workers were salvaging the plant, taking some machinery out of it when it collapsed.

The sheriff said, to the best of investigators’ knowledge, the workers were on the bottom floor when the collapse happened. The building essentially toppled all around the two workers.

Around 11 p.m., at least four firefighters were inside the building and maintained contact with the one trapped worker.

The Martin County Sheriff confirms the worker crews had made contact with is the one that passed away Wednesday morning. That rescue mission has now turned into a recovery mission, officials say.

No word if any contact has been made with the second worker trapped under the collapsed building.

The family of the deceased worker has been notified, but officials have not released a name.

Crews from a number of agencies are on the scene, including Pikeville, Ashland, Warfield, Inez, Martin, and Prestonsburg.

The American Red Cross is providing canteen services for first responders on scene.

A warming station is being opened for the families of the two men trapped at Buck Branch Church in Pilgrim, Kentucky. Donations are also being accepted at the church for the families.

 

King Coal is a hard monarch. Certainly this part of Kentucky is used to industrial and mining accidents, but it's never a good thing when it happens. Even cleaning up after coal can lead to tragedy, and the last thing Eastern KY needs is more tragedy after fires, floods, mine disasters, and even a tornado or two over the time I've lived in the state. 

Coal keeps on taking.

Beshear Audacity Of It All, Con't

 As we close in on the final month before Kentucky goes to the polls to determine whether or not Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear gets to keep his job, a new Emerson College poll finds the incumbent with a huge lead going into the 30-day mark.

 

A new poll from Emerson College and Fox 56 shows Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear with a commanding 16-point lead over Republican nominee attorney general Daniel Cameron.

Out of 450 registered Kentucky voters polled Oct. 1-3, 49% told the independent, nonpartisan pollster they would vote for Beshear if an election between him and Cameron were held today. 33% said they would vote for Cameron. 13% of the respondents were undecided, and 5% said they’d vote for “someone else” despite there being no one else on the ballot.

With 450 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error on the results is +/-4.6%.

The 16-point lead is the largest in any publicly released poll, by a wide margin. Polls conducted from June to late September showed Beshear with anywhere from a 10-point lead to mid-single digits. A poll recently released by the conservative group Club For Growth showed Cameron down six percentage points to Beshear but gaining on the governor in the month of September.

Elections analysis website fivethirtyeight.com gives Emerson College an “A-” rating as a pollster.

Beshear’s campaign has outspent Cameron’s significantly throughout the general election season. Even with multiple political action committees (PACs) supporting Cameron, the amount of pro-Beshear advertisements on television thus far this month has outnumbered Cameron and groups supporting him. During the first full week of October, $1.8 million was spent on ads supporting Beshear compared to roughly $600,000 on ads for Cameron.

Unlike in 2019 — when Beshear defeated controversial former GOP governor Matt Bevin by a razor-thin 0.4 percentage point, 5,000-vote margin — there is no third-party candidate on the ballot this year. In 2019, Libertarian candidate John Hicks received 2% of the vote.

The responses to the poll roughly match up with Kentucky voters’ political behavior in a couple key ways: a majority voted for former Republican president Donald Trump in 2020, and most of them do not like current Democratic President Joe Biden. 55% said they voted for Trump in 2020 while 32% said they voted for Biden — Trump won that election 62-36.

In Kentucky, roughly 46% of registered voters are Republican, 44% are registered Democrat and a little more than 10% are registered as something else, according to State Board of Elections data from September.

However, the responses indicate the population surveyed was registered Democrat at a much lower rate than Kentucky voters on the whole and registered as independent at a much higher rate than the commonwealth’s voters. 31% said they were Democrats, 47% said they were Republicans and 22% said they were Independent or “other” when asked about their party registration.

 

Oversampling of independents isn't a huge deal in a state where basically one in five Democrats are Joe Manchin. If anything, it favors the huge lead.for Beshear.

 

People like the guy. He's been a good governor, he's personable and charismatic, his dad Steve was governor for eight years and like his father, Andy won because the Republican running for reelection was an asshole (back then it was Ernie Fletcher and his state hiring scandal).

Then again, Matt Bevin surprised everyone in 2015 when what the pollsters said was a big Jack Conway win turned into a nine-point loss, so badly called that it spelled the end of the state's biggest polling firm at the time.

So yeah, I'm taking an entire salt mine with these results. Beshear needs to run like he's nine points down, because for all we know, he is.

The Turtle's Sad Ending, Con't

Mitch McConnell needed another reboot at an event in nearby Covington, KY on Wednesday afternoon.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell appeared to freeze again Wednesday, this time during a gaggle with reporters in Covington, Kentucky, stopping for more than 30 seconds after he was asked if he would run for re-election.

The Kentucky Republican froze in July at a news conference on Capitol Hill, going silent for 19 seconds before being escorted away from the cameras. McConnell, 81, returned shortly afterward and continued his news conference, telling reporters, “I’m fine.”

When it became apparent that McConnell had frozen again on Wednesday, an aide came up to him and asked, “Did you hear the question, senator?” McConnell continued to be unresponsive.

Once McConnell re-engaged, he responded briefly to another question about Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a Republican; his aide needed to repeat the question to him. McConnell was then asked about former President Donald Trump, another question that had to be repeated. McConnell brushed off the question because he does not usually engage in Trump-related topics.

He then left. Reporters did not ask McConnell about the episode before he departed.

"Leader McConnell felt momentarily lightheaded and paused during his press conference today," a McConnell spokesperson said.

McConnell "feels fine," but will consult a doctor before his next event as "a prudential measure," an aide said.

McConnell spoke for about 20 minutes on Wednesday before the question-and-answer session with reporters.

 

Again, as someone who has been opining on Kentucky politics for 15 years now, I am telling you right now that there are zero scenarios where McConnell isn't replaced by an even worse Republican. Daniel Cameron, James Comer, Kelly Craft, Ryan Quarles, Thomas Massie, hell, even Matt Bevin might be on the list. 

 

Kentucky Republicans in the legislature get to decide who Gov. Beshear gets to choose from, and precisely none of those folks will be anyone other than a screaming MAGA chud. The party in control of the Senate seat gets to pick three names, and the Governor has to choose within 21 days.

Beshear might try to appoint a Democrat to the seat should McConnell not be able to continue and I hope he does challenge the law.

I don't see him winning however. Kentucky's Supreme Court is not going to side with him on this. Beshear's argument when he vetoed the bill doing this was that it violated the 17th Amendment of the US Constitution, and if it's a federal battle before SCOTUS, he'll 100% lose.

We'll see what happens, but this battle is going to get closer as the days roll on, and it may decide the Senate in 2024 at least temporarily. A special election would be a jungle primary mess, almost certainly coming down to two Republicans, so even if Beshear wins the legal fight, Kentucky political gravity will kick in and we'll have another GOP senator anyhow.

Like I said, there's no scenario where McConnell isn't replaced by a worse Republican.

The Turtle's Long Road

Senate GOP minority leader Mitch McConnell has been having a rough time of it as of late.

 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tripped and fell disembarking from a plane at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport this month, two sources familiar with the incident said.

McConnell, 81, was not seriously hurt, and he was seen later that day at the Capitol, where he interacted with at least one reporter.

The fall, which has not been previously reported, occurred July 14 after the flight out of Washington was canceled while everyone was on board. McConnell, R-Ky., who was a passenger, had a “face plant,” someone who was on the plane at the time but did not witness the fall told NBC News. That passenger also said they spoke to another passenger who helped tend to McConnell.

McConnell has also recently been using a wheelchair as a precaution when he navigates crowded airports, said a source familiar with his practices.

McConnell, a polio survivor who has long struggled to navigate stairs and other obstacles, has had a difficult recent history with falls. He sustained a concussion and a cracked rib in a fall in Washington this year, and he spent six weeks away from the Senate. He fractured a shoulder in a fall in Kentucky in 2019, requiring surgery.

McConnell’s nearly 20-second freeze during a news conference Wednesday renewed concerns about his overall health after the concussion.

“He’s definitely slower with his gait,” said a Republican senator who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. In closed-door GOP meetings, “he doesn’t address it,” the senator said, referring to health issues.

McConnell’s office declined to comment for this article Wednesday night.

McConnell, who told reporters he was “fine” after his freeze-up Wednesday, spoke with President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy after the incident.

“The president called to check on me. I told him I got sandbagged,” McConnell joked to reporters, an apparent reference to Biden’s fall last month.

 

I remind folks that the KY GOP changed the rules for appointing a US Senator should the need arise, while Gov. Beshear would get to make the ultimate choice, tit's the GOP-dominated General Assembly that chooses the list of candidates. 

 

I can't help but think if anything happened to Mitch now, that the GOP may decide Daniel Cameron would make a good Senator even though he's running for Beshear's job this year, as it's ultimately where he's headed. I don't know if Cameron can be replaced on the gubernatorial ticket this late in the game, but the KY GOP will just change the rules anyway and force Beshear to accept it.

Besides, if Mitch wasn't Senate minority leader, Tom Cotton or Rick Scott would be.

Beshear Audacity Of It All

Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear continues to be broadly popular in 2023 heading into his reelection race against GOP Attorney General Daniel Cameron later this year. 

 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — a Democrat running for re-election this year in a deep-red state — remains among America’s most popular governors ahead of the November contest. His approval rating among GOP voters is stronger than any other Democratic governor, resisting drag from President Joe Biden’s poor standing in the Bluegrass State and setting up a formidable challenge for Republicans hoping to unseat him.

The other incumbent governor up for re-election this fall, Republican Tate Reeves of Mississippi, is among the country’s least popular, according to our latest quarterly data. His state’s partisan bent and the power of incumbency are likely to be enough to push him across the finish line in November, though strengthened antipathy from the state’s large share of Black voters could make him sweat.

A strong 64% majority of Kentucky voters approve of Beshear’s job performance, while 32% disapprove, according to our second quarter surveys conducted April 1-June 30. This marks Beshear’s highest approval rating since Biden took office in January 2021.

Along with receiving solid marks from Kentucky Democrats and independents, Beshear wins approval from roughly half of the state’s Republicans, making him the country’s most popular Democratic governor with GOP voters.

Even with his father’s esteemed name in state politics, Beshear’s current standing is remarkable given Kentucky’s partisan bent. While he defeated Republican Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019 by a razor-thin margin due largely to the incumbent’s deep unpopularity, Trump would go on to win the state by 26 percentage points in 2020.

Despite that wide presidential margin, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have rated the race as leaning Democratic, with Cook citing Beshear’s approval rating in Morning Consult surveys, buoyed by his handling of natural disasters and Kentucky’s economic performance. (Another race-rater, Inside Elections, currently sees the contest as a toss-up.)

Beshear is entering the heat of the campaign with strong popularity despite voters’ deep dislike of Biden in his state. Kentucky voters are 37 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Biden’s job performance (30% to 67%). But to Beshear’s credit, even those who dislike the president more often than not give the governor positive marks.

 

Cameron keeps attacking Beshear as a liberal, but even half of Republicans here say he's doing a good job. We'll see what polling looks like after Labor Day, but Beshear has a really good shot.

Last Call For Crafting A Disaster In Kentucky

The GOP primary for governor is next Tuesday here in Kentucky, and while I definitely have my problems with Turtle High Priest Daniel Cameron, the even worse alternative is definitely form Trump regime UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, trying to buy the seat with her millions so she can purge state schools of trans folk.

 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft made sweeping, explicit anti-transgender remarks at a virtual town hall on Monday, escalating her transphobic rhetoric in the lead-up to the primary election.

Craft, a former ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, said Kentucky would “not have transgenders in our school system” if she were elected governor, according to a transcript of the town hall reported by the Lexington Herald Leader.

Weston Loyd, communications director for Craft’s campaign, said Craft was referring to “ideologies.”

“Of course Kelly [Craft] was referring to the woke ideologies being pushed in our schools,” Loyd said. “She has been advocating for the best for all children this entire campaign.”

But Craft’s statement that transgender students should not exist in Kentucky schools goes beyond even her previous anti-trans stances throughout her campaign, such as her opposition to trans athletes competing in women’s sports and support of a sweeping new law, sponsored by her running mate, that bans gender affirming medical care for minors.

Chris Hartman, executive director of the Kentucky Fairness Campaign, said he wasn’t surprised by Craft’s comments in light of her previous anti-trans remarks and legislative agendas.

“You cannot force or legislate trans kids out of existence. You can’t push them back into the closet,” Hartman said. “Trans kids exist. They will always exist, and they will always be in Kentucky schools, no matter what Kelly Craft and Max Wise have to say about it.”

GOP state Sen. Max Wise, Craft's running mate, sponsored Senate Bill 150, one of the strictest anti-trans laws in the country, which passed in the Kentucky Legislature this year. It bans gender-affirming medical care for transgender kids and imposes rules on public schools that negatively affect trans students.

The ACLU of Kentucky filed a lawsuit last week challenging parts of SB 150 that ban trans kids from receiving gender affirming care like puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones like testosterone and estrogen.

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear vetoed the bill, though the GOP-led legislature easily overrode him. In his veto message, Beshear wrote that SB 150 “allows too much government interference in personal healthcare issues and rips away the freedom of parents to make medical decisions for their children.”

Hartman said anti-trans rhetoric is taking a toll on trans kids’ mental health – and it’s coming from politicians and legislatures across the country, not just from Craft. The ACLU identified nearly 500 anti-LGBTQ bills in the United States in just the 2023 legislative session.

“I don’t believe that kids are hearing Kelly Craft’s words any louder than they are hearing the state legislatures all across the United States, and the coordinated national efforts to eradicate transgender kids for the cheapest political points,” Hartman said.

 

Understand that Republicans like Craft will not stop at getting rid of trans kids -- trying to make their existence illegal felonies -- and as horrific as that is,  they will do the same to all trans folk in Kentucky and in multiple other states.

I'd say this is the 1939 playbook from Germany only with trans folks, but Republicans hate Jews too, so there you are.

 

Needless to say, a second term for Andy Beshear may be the only force that halts a slide towards actual genocide here.

Last Call For Trans-Specific Railroading

Sadly, but not unexpectedly, Kentucky is about to quickly join several other red states in making trans kids illegal, and criminalizing anyone who "assists in physical or social transition" in any way with felony charges, loss of license, loss of state funding, and worse.

 

A sweeping new piece of anti-transgender legislation is being fast-tracked through Kentucky’s legislature, quickly being assigned to a committee and racking up 20 co-sponsors after its Tuesday filing.

Under House Bill 470, gender transition services for trans kids would be virtually barred statewide. “Gender transition” is broadly defined in the bill, applying to any service meant to “(assist) a person with a gender transition.” This would include things to help youth transition socially like using the student's correct pronouns or new name.

Physical and mental health care providers found to have helped provide transition-related services, which are backed by major medical organizations, to those under 18 would lose their licenses. If those providers work at a place receiving public money, the funding would be pulled.

Health care providers would be required to report providing any type of gender-affirming care to someone under the age of 18 within 30 days. If they don't, they could face criminal charges. They also would be liable should someone sue over services they provide, while providers who refuse to provide such services would be protected against legal, professional licensing and disciplinary pursuits.

In school, educators would be required to out trans and non-binary kids to their parents if they ask for a new name or pronouns, change their gender expression or there is an “inconsistency” between the sex or gender they were born as and how they feel.

Anyone under 18 could no longer legally change their name if the change appears tied to a “social or physical gender transition.” Documents like birth certificates also couldn’t be amended.

The bill, which is sponsored by Rep. Jennifer Decker, R-Waddy, says it would take effect in January 2024 so any minors currently using puberty blockers would have time for the appropriate medication tapering.

 

We're making being a trans kid in this state 100% illegal and if anyone doesn't report a soon-to-be illegal trans kid to the authorities, they'll go to jail. The bill essentially classifies medical or social transition as felony child abuse and makes failure to report it a crime as well.

Here's the most insidious part:

 

Decker’s bill is dubbed the “Do No Harm Act,” although several trans individuals and their allies have testified already this session that even small acts of affirming trans students’ identities, like using the correct pronouns, are shown to reduce the chances that student will consider suicide.

 

These bastards are going to run this bill through in a matter of days and override a Beshear veto easily even if he does veto it. I'm hoping the bill can be tied up by the Kentucky courts, but I expect it will become law by next year.

 

And then the state will begin hunting down trans kids. "Do No Harm" act my ass. This will get trans kids killed in KY and they damn well know it, because that's the point of the bill. Make a group illegal to exist and they either flee, die, or end up in jail.

Won't stop there, of course...

Last Call For Beshear's Bluegrass Blitz

Over at Sabato's Crystal Ball, J. Miles Coleman handicaps the 2023 Kentucky Gubernatorial race.

 

Of the 3 states seeing governors races this year, Kentucky will likely see the most vigorous 2-party competition. Four years ago, Kentucky voters ousted an unpopular governor from a popular party. This year, the Bluegrass State will weigh whether to keep a popular governor from an unpopular party.

In 2019, then-state Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) narrowly beat then-incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R). Bevin was originally elected in 2015 to replace Beshear’s father, who was term-limited as governor. Bevin, an anti-establishment conservative, burnt a few too many bridges during his term and, despite the state’s friendly lean, was weighed down by poor approval ratings.

Now, facing reelection himself, Beshear is in essentially the opposite situation as Bevin was 4 years ago. According to Morning Consult’s April 2022 polling, Beshear was the most popular Democratic governor in the country. In Morning Consult’s more recent October 2022 poll, he retained that title. But Kentucky is also the reddest state (by 2020 presidential results) that currently has a Democratic governor — so, as impressive as Beshear’s approvals are, they are not necessarily enough to guarantee reelection.

On Friday, filing for the gubernatorial contest closed. On the Republican side, about a dozen candidates, including 3 current statewide officials, filed to run in the May 16 primary. Though Kentucky has the earliest primary of the 3 states that will elect governors this year — in other words, Republicans won’t be beating up on each other into the fall, as has been the case in recent Louisiana races (more on that later) — state GOP consultant Scott Jennings quipped that “crazy things” could happen.

Still, the nominal frontrunner in the Republican contest is Daniel Cameron, who currently holds Beshear’s old job as state Attorney General. Cameron, a Black Republican who is 37 and has connections to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), first ran for office in 2019 — he easily defeated then-state Rep. Greg Stumbo, an Appalachian Democrat who had a lengthy resume in state politics. As Beshear did with Bevin, Cameron has battled the governor while in office, most notably on COVID measures. Shortly after Cameron entered the race, last May, he received Donald Trump’s endorsement.

The other statewide Republicans who are running for a promotion are Auditor Mike Harmon and Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles. Harmon first got to office in something of an upset, defeating then-Auditor Adam Edelen, who was thought to be a rising star in state Democratic politics (Edelen later lost to Beshear in the 2019 gubernatorial primary). Quarles has fundraised competitively with Cameron, while Harmon’s totals have been less impressive. Kelly Knight Craft, who served in the Trump Administration as ambassador to Canada and then to the United Nations, is another serious Republican. Craft is both a billionaire and an ample fundraiser, so money should not be an issue for her campaign.

Beshear, although he is expected to win his primary easily, will have 2 opponents, the more notable of whom is Geoff Young. A perennial candidate, Young has been denounced by fellow Democrats for, among other things, his pro-Vladimir Putin stances. In any case, the non-Beshear vote in the primary will likely be a protest vote more than anything else.

Aside from the potential for a chaotic Republican primary, there are more local factors working in Beshear’s favor. In 2017, the Crystal Ball looked at the types of political implications that natural disasters can have. Governors who are perceived to handle disasters well often get an electoral boost. Last year, though he was already favored, Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) response to Hurricane Ian likely padded his margin. Since 2019, Kentucky has been hit by tornadoes in the west, while the Appalachian east has seen historic flooding. Beshear’s responses to the state’s crises have enabled him to cultivate something of a postpartisan image.

The 2022 election cycle, at least in terms of its partisan results, was not especially kind to Kentucky Democrats: though they retained representation in the federal delegation by holding the open and very Democratic Louisville-based KY-3, Republicans expanded their already-robust majority in the state House — the GOP captured 80 of the chamber’s 100 seats. But the result of one of last year’s state referendums may give Democrats more encouragement. Amendment 2 was supported by many prominent Republicans — if passed, it would have confirmed that the state constitution does not guarantee a right to abortion. Amendment 2 failed by close to 5 points.

Though the status of abortion in Kentucky is being settled in the courts, from a purely electoral perspective, the anti-Amendment 2 vote may provide something of a template for a Beshear win this year. The state’s 2 largest counties, Louisville’s Jefferson and Lexington’s Fayette, both voted over 70% against the amendment — in 2019, Beshear himself received about two-thirds of the vote in each of those large counties. (Those are the pockets of dark blue on the map.) The 3 northernmost counties, which are in Cincinnati’s orbit, also voted, in aggregate, against Amendment 2. Beshear’s overperformance in northern Kentucky was key to his 2 previous statewide wins. It is hard to transfer every element of a referendum to an actual partisan contest, but a similar vote in Kansas last summer presaged Gov. Laura Kelly’s (D-KS) victory in another red state.

Considering the governor’s personal popularity and the potential for uncertainty in the Republican primary, we are starting Beshear off as a slight favorite and calling the Kentucky contest Leans Democratic.

 

People like Andy Beshear, but he's going to get drilled in campaign ads over the next 11 months and the GOP is not going to let up. Cameron is Mitch McConnell's personal pick to succeed him, and winning the governor's mansion in 2023 and then running for Mitch's seat in 2026 is the plan.

We'll see. I think Beshear can win, but he absolutely is going to be the number one national target this year for the GOP. Mitch will see to that.

The Big Bluegrass Breakdown

Kentucky Republicans, in a position where they can pass anything they want with a supermajority and override any veto by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, are set to turn the commonwealth into the poorest state in the nation.

 

The top priority bill of the Kentucky General Assembly's Republican supermajority, which would lower the state's individual income tax rate to 4% beginning in 2024, passed through the state House Thursday.

House Bill 1, which would also codify an automatic reduction of the tax rate from 5% to 4.5% for Jan. 1 of this year, was passed out of the chamber on a near party-line vote of 79-19, advancing the GOP supermajority's long-term plan to eventually eliminate Kentucky's income tax.

The tax cut bill passed through the House budget committee earlier that morning, with Republicans touting it as a way to put more money back into the pockets of taxpayers and spur future economic and population growth.

"It's putting more money back (to) the hard-working Kentuckians across the commonwealth," said Rep. Brandon Reed, R-Hodgenville, the lead sponsor of the bill and budget committee vice chair. "They'll be able to spend their money like they see fit, they'll be able to pay down debt, they'll be able to save for their families and spend accordingly."

All four Democrats on the budget committee voted against HB 1, arguing it would deprive the state's General Fund of more than $1 billion in tax revenue annually from the previous 5% rate, while largely benefiting the wealthiest in the state.

"This particular piece of legislation hurts lower-income Kentuckians and helps the wealthier, higher-income Kentuckians," said Rep. Ruth Ann Palumbo, D-Lexington. "It is not sustainable. Future legislators will have to raise taxes and we are not being fiscally responsible."

The tax cut bill is a product of Republicans' landmark House Bill 8 that passed in the 2022 session, which seeks to trigger automatic reductions of .5% to the individual income tax rate each year — so long as two budget conditions are met — until the income tax is eliminated.

Those HB 8 conditions are that the budget reserve trust fund (often called rainy day fund) is at least 10% of tax revenue for the previous fiscal year, and those same receipts exceed spending by at least the amount of revenue that would be lost by cutting the tax rate a full percentage point.

While the reduction of the tax rate from 5% to 4.5% beginning this year was automatic due to those conditions being met, HB 1 codifies that change, while also approving the further reduction to 4% beginning Jan. 1, 2024.

A fiscal note for HB 1 estimated it would reduce state tax revenue by $316 million through just the first half of 2024.

Pam Thomas with left-leaning think tank Kentucky Center for Economic Policy told the committee a 4% tax rate would result in state revenues dropping by roughly $1.2 billion annually from what they would be at 5% — more than what the state appropriates for its entire higher education system.

Noting the income tax reduction under the bill would be permanent, Thomas said the sales tax may have to be raised in the future if the economy hits a downturn and the state doesn't have enough revenue to meet critical obligations, disproportionately hurting lower-income people.

However, Rep. Jason Petrie, the Republican chair of the budget committee, dismissed those fears, saying Democratic critics have warned of pending increases to the sales tax rate since the legislature cut individual and corporate income tax rates from 6% to 5% in 2018, which hasn't happened.

"The rate of the sales tax remains the same," Petrie said. "We have every intent of continuing with that same sales tax rate."

Under House Bill 8, dozens of services previously exempt from a sales tax lost that exemption, though the estimated revenue from those moves was roughly $100 million — far from making up for revenue lost from the income tax cut.

 

The goal of course is to eliminate the state's income tax completely in a decade, leaving the state dependent on double digit sales taxes on goods and services, while also cutting as much as they can from schools, roads, social programs and basic government services.   The state's budget surplus will vanish, and the wealthiest Kentuckians will get tens of thousands of dollars.

Without income tax, the state's general fund will collapse, or have to be replaced with billions in additional sales tax, which is exactly what's going to come in the years ahead.

Like A Troubled Bridge Over Waters, Con't

President Biden will be in town today to kick off the new year and to remind everyone why he was elected as he visits the Brent Spence Bridge, with work funded by his historic infrastructure bill beginning later this year to replace the nearly 70-year old structure. 

 

President Joe Biden is visiting northern Kentucky on Wednesday to tout spending more than $1 billion in federal grants to improve congestion on the aging Brent Spence Bridge.

The bridge links Covington and downtown Cincinnati over the Ohio River along Interstate 75, one of the busiest trucking routes in America.

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced last week it would award $1.635 billion for the construction of a companion bridge to help unclog bridge traffic by separating truck traffic from local vehicles. This is from an infrastructure law Congress passed in late 2021 to help repair or rebuild 10 of the most economically significant bridges in the country.

“The grant to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet will fund improvements to the Brent Spence Bridge, which is currently the second worst truck bottleneck in the nation and carries more than $400 billion in freight per year over the Ohio River,” reads a news release Wednesday from DOT.

The project also will improve “delays in the movement of freight that currently raise costs for American families.”

President Biden is expected to fly into Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport around 11:25 a.m.

Expect traffic delays on I-275 and I-71/75, as well as streets around the Brent Spence Bridge in Covington.

The president will hold a news conference near the bridge around lunchtime, making a rare joint appearance with Senate Republican Majority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Other elected officials plan to attend, adding to the bipartisan mix of the event: Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, former Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican.

I'll of course be following the project over the next couple of years. Remember, proposing that the companion bridge be built with toll money is what cost Matt Bevin reelection. Keeping the bridge toll-free might get Beshear another term.

Last Call For It's A Gas, Gas, Gas Con't

Gasoline prices have fallen sharply since Election Day, but the news behind that price drop at the pump isn't exactly great.

 

The cost of gasoline is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of drivers, defying earlier projections and offering an unexpected gift for the holidays.

Filling up is now as cheap as it was in February, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine touched off a global energy crisis. AAA reported the average nationwide price of a gallon of regular Wednesday was $3.50, and gas price tracking company GasBuddy projected it could drop below $3 by Christmas. And all of that relief probably helped drive robust shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.

“People are realizing that they might be back to spending $50 to fill their tank instead of $80,” said Emma Rasiel, a professor of economics at Duke University. “It is the main signal consumers notice on inflation. It is the one thing they are likely to track, how much it has gone up or down, because every week they need to fill up their car.”

But Rasiel cautioned that less-expensive gas can also give consumers the wrong idea. Prices of other goods and services are much less volatile, and there is no indication that this moment of more-affordable fuel is pushing the cost of other things down.

Even as the plunge in prices at the pump helps fuel a national holiday shopping spree, it is a reflection of the financial strain consumers and businesses are confronting worldwide. Prices are going down because demand for oil and gas is falling as countries brace for recession, coronavirus outbreaks in China threaten major financial disruption and drivers cut back on gas-guzzling as they try to save money to cover skyrocketing mortgage payments and stock market losses.

Earlier worries that sanctions on Russian oil would create a shortage in supply and send prices soaring toward the end of the year have, for now at least, given way to ailing economies and jittery financial markets.

“We’re heading into serious recession in Europe and further economic slowdown in the U.S. as people struggle with high interest rates and worry about their personal wealth and savings,” said Ben Cahill, an energy security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Add it all up and it creates a bleak picture for oil demand. Prices are reflecting that.”

Also helping keep prices low at the moment are some key U.S. oil refineries that returned to churning out gasoline after months of being out of commission for maintenance and repairs.

But just as big a factor is the turmoil in China. As its leaders signal that new coronavirus lockdowns are imminent, touching off protests throughout the country, the expected economic fallout has turned oil traders bearish.

China alone accounted for 16 percent of global oil demand last year, according to the research firm Capital Economics, which projects its purchase of oil will drop by 1 million barrels per day in December as coronavirus infections spread. The effect of such a drop on global oil markets is considerable, reducing the price of Brent crude by as much as $10 a barrel, or more than 10 percent.

 

So the Russian oil doomsday scenario hasn't come to pass quite yet, but the global economy is headed for some bad times in 2023. How hard the landing is going to be is still up in the air, but at least gas prices are headed back under $3 for a while. 

Diesel out here in the Midwest is still $4.50-$5 a gallon though, so that's still costing consumers more at checkout. Still, gas prices here in KY are below $3 in several counties.

Beshear also applauds gas prices dropping across the state. ^AH pic.twitter.com/OkQuwvG56l

— Bluegrass Politics (@BGPolitics) December 1, 2022

We'll see what the Fed decides to do with interest rates later this month.

Climate Of Emergency, Local Edition Con't

President Biden yesterday visited Eastern Kentucky counties devastated by flooding two weeks ago and pledged more FEMA aid to the region.

 

President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden on Monday witnessed the damage from deadly and devastating storms that have resulted in the worst flooding in Kentucky’s history, as they visited the state to meet with families and first responders.

At least 37 people have died since last month’s deluge, which dropped 8 to 10-1/2 inches of rain in only 48 hours. Gov. Andy Beshear told Biden that authorities expect to add at least one other death to the total. The National Weather Service said Sunday that flooding remains a threat, warning of more thunderstorms through Thursday.

The president said the nation has an obligation to help all its people, declaring the federal government would provide support until residents were back on their feet. Behind him as he spoke was a single-story house that the storm had dislodged and then left littered on the ground, tilted sideways.

“We have the capacity to do this — it’s not like it’s beyond our control,” Biden said. “We’re staying until everybody’s back to where they were.”

In the summer heat and humidity, Biden’s button-down shirt was covered in sweat. Pacing with a microphone in his hand, he eschewed formal remarks as he pledged to return once the community was rebuilt.

“The bad news for you is I’m coming back, because I want to see it,” the president said.

The Bidens were greeted warmly by Beshear and his wife, Britainy, when they arrived in eastern Kentucky. They immediately drove to see devastation from the storms in Breathitt County, stopping at the site of where a school bus, carried by floodwaters, was crashed into a partially collapsed building.

Beshear said the flooding was “unlike anything we’ve ever seen” in the state and credited Biden with swiftly approving federal assistance.

He praised responders who “have moved heaven and earth to get where we are, what, about nine days from when this hit,” he said.

Attending a briefing on the flooding’s impact with first responders and recovery specialists at Marie Roberts Elementary School in Lost Creek, Biden told a delegation of Kentucky leaders that he would do whatever was necessary to help.

“I promise you, if it’s legal, we’ll do it,” he said. “And if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law.” 

 

That would be a threat coming from The Former Guy.

 

I'm glad the Commonwealth will get the aid it needs, and I guarantee you that if GOP Rep. Thomas Massie can find a way to vote against it, he will. 

Watch.

Climate Of Emergency, Local Edition

Here in Kentucky, massive flash flooding over the last 24 hours has trapped hundreds of residents in the eastern part of the state as emergency crews are working to rescue people from rapidly rising floodwaters.

Several people in Southeastern Kentucky reported being trapped inside their homes early Thursday by rising waters as “catastrophic” flash flooding hit the region. “We are dealing with a catastrophic and historic flash flooding situation in parts of the region,” WYMT anchor Steve Hensley said on Twitter.

“I’ve never seen water come off the hill behind my house like this. There are people trapped and homes and roads flooded. A flash flood emergency continues for several counties. I pray nobody has lost their life. I’m afraid the devastation we will see after daybreak will be significant.” 

There is flooding reported in several southeastern Kentucky counties, including Breathitt, Floyd, Perry, Knott, Leslie, Pike and Magoffin.

Gov. Andy Beshear signed a state of emergency Thursday morning in response to severe flooding late Wednesday and early Thursday in Eastern Kentucky.

Beshear called last night and early this morning “one of the worst, most devastating flooding events in Kentucky‘s history.” At a 9:30 a.m. presser he called the situation “dynamic,” and said that in most places the rising waters had not even crested yet. Beshear said that the administration expects loss of life to occur because of the flooding. ‘

Todd Depriest, mayor of Jenkins in Letcher County, said the water came up quickly in and around town Thursday morning, preventing people from getting out.

At 10 a.m. Thursday, there were still people trapped in the upper floors of their houses in an area just outside the city, he said. ”I’ve never seen it do this,” said DePriest, who has lived in Jenkins for 54 years. “Been a rough one.” 

DePriest said he had not heard of any injuries or deaths in the Jenkins area, though he had heard a report of a car being swept away with someone in it.

Kentucky's has a number of extreme weather events, ice storms, tornadoes, and now flash flooding, in just the last six months. Expect more of this, more often, as the era of climate change continues. Even if Democrats pass the climate change funding provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer came to an agreement on yesterday, we're still trillions behind in carbon reduction.

Extreme weather that destroys lives will be a function of the rest of our lifetimes.

Last Call For Weathering The Storm

The AP's Adrian Sainz and Bruce Schreiner report on Eastern Kentucky's recovery from the devastating night of December tornadoes that claimed 81 lives, dozens in the town of Mayfield alone.

 

Audible evidence of rebuilding in Mayfield has been difficult to miss: the cracking and crashing of excavators breaking apart wood and glass, the beep-beep-beep of heavy machinery reversing, the popping of roofers’ nail guns.

In an AP interview, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said removing debris and finding temporary housing were early priorities after the tornado. More recently, attention has turned to keeping residents in Kentucky.

“These are towns that have almost been wiped off the map,” Beshear said. “We will continue to be concerned about getting people back on their feet and concerned about not losing the population of these towns.”

Some have moved to more permanent shelter, including travel trailers, the governor said. In Graves County, tiny homes were approved for displaced residents, and several larger homes are being built in Mayfield, emergency management Director Tracy Warner said.

“We really hold the future of Mayfield and Graves County in our hands,” Warner said. “And that is scary, yet exciting.”

Although there’s cause for optimism, progress remains slow in places. In Dawson Springs, where Bullock and her family now live in a camper, the 54-year-old registered nurse said she has seen just a few houses being rebuilt, and some friends say they won’t stay.

Bullock and her husband had paid off their home but didn’t have insurance. A disaster-response charity is helping them build a new house on their property, and Bullock hopes to see a day when their family gatherings resume.

“Sundays were fun days. ... I just want to have that again,” she said.

Beshear, a Democrat, said millions in housing assistance payments from a state relief fund are being distributed. About $64 million in federal assistance has been approved for storm victims in Kentucky, with some aid targeting temporary housing, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said.

Recovery will take “a couple of years, but it shouldn’t take any longer,” Beshear said. “There are days that it’s a little more frustrating, ... but we are going to get this done.”

 

The recovery effort in Eastern Kentucky has been arguably the one thing Kentucky Republicans haven't heavily politicized as a weapon against Beshear, mainly because the damage was so widespread in areas that are heavily rural and Republican.  But as Beshear said, the recovery will still take years to complete.

The bigger problem is that more nights like this are coming as climate change revs up storm fronts into tornado-spawning nightmare fuel across the country, with more damage, more devastation, and more deaths. It will only get worse in the months and years ahead.

Like A Trouble Over Water, Bridge

The Brent Spence Bridge replacement project has always been a political landmine around here, former GOP Gov. Matt Bevin lost reelection because his plan was to charge tolls in Northern Kentucky to get to work in Cincinnati, which cost him just enough support in NKY counties in 2019 to lose. 

After decades of being blocked by Kentucky GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell, making a new span alongside the JFK Camelot-era bridge is finally getting off the ground thanks to the Biden Infrastructure bill and Ohio GOP Gov. Mike DeWine and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

 

The Brent Spence Bridge between Ohio and Kentucky could finally be getting its companion bridge – and it won't require new tolls.

At a news conference Monday, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced plans to apply for two federal grants totaling up to $2 billion to fund a new bridge to carry Interstates 71 and 75 over the Ohio River.

"I want to be able to break ground next year,'' said Beshear, a Democrat, during the news conference.

The application for funding is expected to be submitted within the next few months and a final decision on the funding could happen in the fall of 2023, officials said.

The total cost of the new bridge would be about $2.8 billion, according to DeWine, a Republican. Kentucky and Ohio will contribute whatever funds aren't covered by the federal government.

Both states will apply for the grants together once the U.S. Department of Transportation releases guidance on the application process. Governors DeWine and Beshear said it's unclear exactly when that may be.

Transportation officials estimated construction of the companion bridge and improvements to the Brent Spence would take about five years to complete.

Beshear and DeWine said the new bridge would be built without tolls.

In the 1990s, the Federal Highway Administration declared the Brent Spence functionally obsolete because its narrow lanes carried more cars than it was designed for – with no emergency lane.

The Brent Spence was built in 1963 to handle 80,000 vehicles a day, but is now used by double that number.

Improvements to the existing bridge and building a new companion bridge would add much-needed capacity by separating local and through traffic to ease the ongoing traffic backups and accidents.

 

Now there's still quite a bit that could go wrong here, but it's the Brent Spence Bridge that put Andy Beshear in office, and getting ground broken on that project before election day next year will be the only shot he has of winning a second term. 

 

Considering the bridge was out of commission for six weeks in November and December 2020 after a major truck accident, getting it replaced has suddenly become a major local priority for Democrats and Republicans considering how much damage was done to NKY's economy.

 

Mike DeWine gets to avoid being the bad guy here, too. He gets to look like the sensible, bipartisan type (despite being a screaming right-wing nutjob) and he gets to put something on the board other than the state's massively corrupt GOP state legislature.

 

But I'm guessing, cynically, that McConnell will take credit for the eventualy groundbreaking for the bridge in 2024, when Kentucky almost certainly has a new Republican governor.

The Return Of Kynect...For Now

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has kept a major campaign promise: the return of the state's wildly successful Obamacare health exchange Kynect, eliminated by previous Gov. Matt Bevin because it was so successful and Bevin needed to prove that Kynect was a failure. When Bevin couldn't, he just killed it. Now Beshear has brought it back.

 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, with help from U.S. Health and Human Services Secrertary Xavier Becerra, rolled out the reopening Friday of Kynect, the state-based health insurance exchange.

Friday was the start of open enrollment for existing recipients of Medicaid, the government health plan for low-income people and those with disabilities. Open enrollment for private health plans on Kentucky’s exchange is from Nov. 1 to Jan. 15.

The exchange was started by Beshear’s father, former Gov. Steve Beshear, under the federal Affordable Care but was shuttered in favor of the federal health exchange by his successor, former Gov. Matt Bevin.

“I’m really excited about today. Kynect was the gold standard,” Andy Beshear said in a Zoom news conference with Becerra. “Health care coverage is neither red nor blue, Democrat or Republican. It is necessary for survival in a pandemic and it is necessary for Kentucky to thrive.”

Becerra praised Kynect, calling it a “Kentucky-made, Kentucky-driven and Kentucky-based product” and that no one knows better the health care needs of Kentuckians than Beshear. He labeled Beshear a “true champion of health care.”

Beshear said the goal is to get health insurance to 280,000 uninsured Kentuckians.

Beshear announced last year that he was bringing back Kynect, the online health exchange where people can shop for and buy health insurance, as well as sign up for Medicaid.

Kentucky received national praise for the program that brought about one of the lowest rates of uninsured in the country. Bevin, though, said it was too costly and redundant of the federal website to buy health insurance. He stopped it in 2017.

Beshear said Friday that Kentuckians now can browse plans and explore benefits at kynect.ky.gov that take effect Jan. 1, 2022.

Compared with current federal exchange offerings, Kentuckians will benefit in 2022 from more health care insurance providers and the opportunity to tailor coverage to address their unique needs, said Beshear.

He said the change is expected to save Kentuckians at least $15 million a year.

 

I'd take advantage of it while you can,  I fully expect the KY GOP supermajority to move Kynect under the aegis of Attorney General Daniel Cameron's office in January and then dismantle it in the spring, but it will be nice for a couple of months to live in a state when not everyone in political power wants poor people to die in order to stop burdening the commonwealth.

 

Don't expect Kynect to last more than a few months. Use it if you need to.

Last Call For The Road To Gilead, Kentucky Edition

Abortion went before the Supreme Court again today, this time with Kentucky GOP AG Daniel Cameron saying he has the exclusive right to defend the state's abortion ban in court if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear will not do so, and as far as the Supremes go, they seemed to heavily side with Cameron.

The Supreme Court heard arguments in an abortion case on Tuesday, but the issue for the justices was a procedural one: Could Kentucky’s attorney general, a Republican, defend a state abortion law when the governor, a Democrat, refused to pursue further appeals after a federal appeals court struck down the law?

As the argument progressed through a thicket of technical issues, a majority of the justices seemed inclined to say yes.

“Kentucky maybe ought to be there in some form, and the attorney general is the one that wants to intervene,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. said.

More important abortion cases are on the horizon. In December, the court will hear arguments on whether to overrule Roe v. Wade in a case concerning a Mississippi law banning most abortions after 15 weeks. And the justices have been asked to take another look at a Texas law that prohibits most abortions after six weeks, which the court allowed to go into effect last month by a 5-to-4 vote.

Tuesday’s case, Cameron v. EMW Women’s Surgical Center, No. 20-601, concerned a Kentucky law that challengers said effectively banned the most common method of abortion in the second trimester of pregnancy, dilation and evacuation. The justices barely discussed the law during Tuesday’s argument.

Rather, they focused on the tangled history of the case and the complicated jurisdictional and procedural questions that arose from it.

The case started in 2018, when the state’s only abortion clinic and two doctors sued various state officials to challenge the law. The state’s attorney general at the time, Andy Beshear, a Democrat, said his office was not responsible for enforcing the law and entered into a stipulation dismissing the case against him, agreeing to abide by the final judgment and reserving the right to appeal.

The state’s health secretary, who had been appointed by a Republican governor, defended the law in court. A federal trial court struck the law down, saying it was at odds with Supreme Court precedent. The health secretary appealed, but the attorney general did not.

While the case was moving forward, Kentucky’s political landscape shifted. Mr. Beshear, who had been attorney general, was elected governor. Daniel Cameron, a Republican, was elected attorney general.

Mr. Beshear appointed a new health secretary, Eric Friedlander, who continued to defend the law on appeal. But after a divided three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati, affirmed the trial judge’s ruling, Mr. Friedlander declined to seek review from the full appeals court or the Supreme Court.

Mr. Cameron, the new attorney general, sought to intervene in the appeals court, saying he was entitled to defend the law. The appeals court denied his request, ruling that it had come too late.

On Tuesday, the justices probed the significance of the stipulation and the standards for when appeals courts should allow parties to intervene in the late stages of a case.

Justice Clarence Thomas, who has taken to asking the first questions during arguments, said “there isn’t much law” on the appropriate standards.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor said the Sixth Circuit was entitled to take account of the fact that the attorney general had failed to file an appeal after losing in the trial court, notwithstanding the later election of a new attorney general.

“Why would we call it an abuse of discretion for a court of appeals, after it’s rendered its judgment, to say we don’t really care what has happened in the political arena?” she asked.

Matthew F. Kuhn, a lawyer for Mr. Cameron, said his client was acting in a different capacity when he sought to intervene. He was now, Mr. Kuhn said, representing the interests of the state.

About 45 minutes into the argument, Justice Stephen G. Breyer described what he said was really going on the case. “First the Republicans are in, then the Democrats are in,” he said, “and they have different views on an abortion statute.”

He described the history of the case, ending with the ruling from the three-judge panel of the appeals court.

“At that point, for the first time, we have an attorney general who thinks it’s a pretty good statute,” Justice Breyer said. “He wants to defend it.”

“Why can’t he just come in and defend the law?” Justice Breyer asked.

 

At this point it's looking like a 7-2 or even 8-1 decision in favor of Cameron. I know, predicting Supreme Court decisions is a mug's game, but I don't see how he loses if Breyer is asking questions like this.

 

Besides, it's not going to be Kentucky that gets in the history books for ending abortion next summer, it's Mississippi. Cameron wants it so, so badly though. It would be a guaranteed trip to the Governor's mansion and possibly higher office. 

 

Either way, it's another mile closer to Gilead.