McSame Reads The Riot Act

In Toledo, OH police there have been instructed to have riot gear on hand for today and tomorrow according to the local NBC affiliate.

TOLEDO, OHIO -- Toledo police are gearing up for possible "Civil unrest" during and after tomorrow's elections.

In an internal memo obtained exclusively by NBC 24 News, officers are ordered to "Have their riot equipment with them Tuesday and Wednesday". Police chief Mike Navarre confirms, officers will have gear similar to the equipment they used during the 2005 race riots. "They have been asked to have their helmets and their gas masks available tomorrow and Wednesday.", Navarre says, "That's the equipment they would not normally carry with them on a normal day".

Navarre also says, officers will not be stationed at individual polling stations. But the memo says otherwise. It reads, "On Tuesday, units shall be directed to patrol the polling locations".

Now, why would that be?

The McSame campaign issued a statement this morning warning Americans that once again all the exit polls will be wrong.

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

the McSame campaign is already preempting the exit polls and saying they will be wrong, just like in 2004. They say 2008 will be similar. If the polls are wrong by 5.5%, this will be a lot closer than any of us can imagine. The McSame camp is already warning they will be off by similar amounts.

Now why would that be?

McSame's campaign is predicting wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida again despite the polls.

Eight hours in to his 20-hour day on the campaign trail, a confident John McCain has already predicted victories in the battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, even though the polls in both of those states are leaning towards Barack Obama.

"We're going to win Pennsylvania tomorrow and I'm going to be the President of the United States," McCain said. "Pennsylvania will do it, and Pittsburgh will be the important area."

His campaign manager Rick Davis outlined a strategy where McCain could conceivably come from behind and win both here and in Florida, because he believes the polls in the urban areas of those states are overrepresented.

"You look at Pennsylvania, for instance. He's underperforming Kerry in almost every one of the Kerry counties outside of Philadelphia. We're over performing Bush in almost in almost every one of the Bush counties in Pennsylvania. So, I mean, he's not getting the Democratic vote and we're getting more than our share of the Republican vote, but his margin in Philadelphia, again, very much like Miami, it's 40-plus. The last poll I saw had him plus 40 in Philadelphia," Davis said.

"Bush lost Philadelphia by 18 percent, so you're not going to lose it by 40. If you can figure out what I'll lose it by, you'll know whether or not I can win Pennsylvania."

Those numbers will depend on voter turnout, which is why McCain is hitting seven different states today to try and rally his base to turn out. He still has events in Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, and his traditional last stop in Prescott, Arizona, before calling it a day.

Now, why would that be? Why does McSame's camp think urban numbers are overrepresented and that the polls are wrong across the board, and that they are confident they will win today?

Part of that I explained yesterday. Anything short of an Obama landslide will be challenged in court. However, the plan works much better if McSame can mysteriously squeak by in the precincts he needs to squeak by in.

It's not a done deal yet folks. McSame fully expects to win. He is now counting on the exit polls to not match voter totals. Police have been warned across the country to be on alert for not just today but tomorrow as well.

Now, why would that be?

We're not just peeking at his cards. He's showing us his hand full-on and daring us to beat him. He's telling us the polls in Florida, PA, and Ohio are going to be wrong and he's going to win there.

He's telling us that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, OH, PA, FL, NC, GA, VA, CO, NV, NM, IN, MO...

These are all states close to that 5.5% Kerry 2004 "poll margin of error" the the McSame camp claims is normal. Hell, PA would have to be off by 8 or 9 points. But he's still claiming a win there.

Now, why would that be?

GO. VOTE. And while you're there, be on the lookout for anyone turned away. Ask them why they were turned away. Help them if you can. Give them your cell phone, let them call 1-866-OUR-VOTE.

And pray the election isn't already decided. Because a lot of people seem to think McSame is going to win tonight...a lot more than realistically should.

Now, why would that be?

Zandar's Crystal Ball

I suppose it's prediction time for tomorrow.

It comes down to which models you believe in, the old 2004 turnout models, or the new 2008 turnout models. The new models are the ones showing Obama winning this by 8 points or so, a Clinton-Dole style victory that gives him 330-340 EVs or so (OH, FL, VA, CO, NM, NV) or if the turnout models are right, he scores a Democratic tidal wave that gives him a mind-melting 400+ Electoral Votes.

In this Blue Tsunami model, Obama takes GA, NC, MO, IN, and even AZ, MT and ND, giving him 406. It would be a complete meltdown of the GOP.

But the GOP insists that the 2008 turnout models are completely wrong, that low turnout favors the Republicans this year, high turnout favors the Dems, but extremely high turnout again favors the GOP because of the twin motivations of the media picking on Sarah Palin, and the press crowning Barack Obama beforehand.

The GOP "landslide" model works like this, basically, five groups of voters will be motivated to vote for the Republican ticket:

1. Disaffected Hillary Clinton voters, (PUMAs),
2. Centrist Democrats who think Obama's a Socialist (McSame/Blue Dog Dems),
3. White Voters who think Obama played the race card too often (Bradley Effectees),
4. Female Voters who think the Dems are sexist (Palinocrats)
5. Voters who have been convinced by the internet rumors swirling around Obama (Low-Infocrats)

And if enough of these voters show up, they will either counter Obama's ground game or simply overwhelm it. The polling outfits are all wrong, says this theory. The turnout percentages will be almost identical to 2004, and McSame will pull out victory in the tossup states (NC, FL, OH, CO, VA, MO, IN, AZ, NV) plus PA (in the narrow win scenario, McSame 281, Obama 257) and will actually go on to flip Minnesota, New Hampshire, and possibly even Wisconsin, giving the GOP a staggering victory.

They are especially counting on the defection of the PUMA voter and the Palinocrats to give them an unprecedented win. The model states that Obama's decision of Joe Biden over Hillary doomed him from the start.

It's crazy, I know. But it's certainly possible...people do win the lottery too.

So, the four outcomes are:

1. Obama total landslide (406-132)
2. Obama strong victory (340-198)
3. McSame squeaker (281-257, PA the decider)
4. McSame strong victory (310-228)

I'm betting on the second. I'm not ruling out the first or the third. The last one there is...not going to happen. I'm leaning towards the first however. The barrier between 1 and 2 there is not that much, frankly. If he holds on and takes PA and VA, the barrier falls if NC and GA go for Obama tomorrow night. If Obama scores either one of those it's going to be closer to scenario 1 (375+) than 2, if he gets both the national race could be over by 9 PM. Missouri and Indiana will tell the tale, if they too go Obama then he's looking at reaching 400 and #1 up there.

Likewise if PA falls, Obama is in serious trouble. You'll know McSame is on his way to victory should the Keystone state be the keystone and he holds on in NC and GA. Should he take VA too, it's going to be a very, very long night for the Obama campaign.

So, the states to watch tomorrow night are PA, NC, GA, and VA. Whoever takes 3 of 4 wins the election, because they will most likely go on to win both Florida and Ohio, and the Presidency.

Poll-nographic Images

Much has been made by the Right of the Gallup "traditional estimate" poll, made using past esitmates of turnout models (the so called "likely voters") as opposed to the other polls using current turnout models ("registered voters").

Gallup in fact has two polls, one likely voters, one registered voters. The McSame camp was giddy as a schoolgirl when the likely voter poll showed Obama's lead had narrowed from 7 points to just two points in three days, from October 24 (51-44%) to October 27th (49-47%).

The McSame camp and the wingnuts assured America that young people and minorities were simply not going to vote this year, that the turnout was going to follow more traditional models, and that John McCain would be able to pull out a close upset victory if not be ahead by the final weekend and go on to win. It was important because Obama had fallen below 50%, and McSame was within the margin of error. The McSame camp predicted that therefore this proved the race was in fact a tossup.

Smug and assured, they laughed at Obama's half-hour ad buy and said it would backfire, doing more harm than good. It would be Obama being "uppity and presumptuous" again, adressing the nation with a "crass infomercial".

And since October 27th, since Obama's half-hour "closing argument" ad buy on Wednesday night, they expected John McSame to be in control heading into the final weekend before Tuesday's election. The trends were clear, and they believed in the "likely voter" model.

But, there's one small detail they forgot to factor in, you see. The McSame campaign has been much been 100% WRONG about everything.

For you see, Obama is now leading the Gallup likely voter poll by ten points.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has taken the largest lead yet among likely voters against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the national Gallup poll released Saturday. Obama expanded his lead to ten percent from nine percent on Friday.

Obama's lead is a dramatic rise from the 49-47 percent margin that Gallup registered just four days ago.

Gallup added, "This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup's two likely voter models. Obama's lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup's traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama's identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions."

"Both of these likely voter estimates in turn are almost identical to Gallup's 52% to 41% registered voter estimate.

McSame had a chance if he stayed above 45 and Obama at 50. Now? Now he's in trouble. The dominoes are falling in the other direction. It greatly appears that Obama's ad buy may have in fact sealed the deal among undecided voters instead of hurting him.

We may have reached a tipping point here with less than 48 hours before polls open.

Really Early November Surprise

The gang at TPM Muckracker have the goods on how the story on Obama's aunt came out a convenient three days before the election.

The leaking of information about the immigration status of Barack Obama's aunt appears to directly violate guidelines for confidentiality laid out in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement memo obtained by TPMmuckraker.

As we reported earlier, ICE has begun an internal probe into the leak to the Associated Press, which revealed early this morning that Obama's aunt "is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago."

Surprise surprise! Somebody in a Bush-controlled Federal agency most likely leaked the story to help McSame in the last weekend before the election.

Still, from the available evidence, it appears ICE is the most likely source. And Dan Kowalski, a leading immigration law expert, told TPMmuckraker that there's "no question" the leak violated ICE's guidelines as laid out in the memo.

And he identified for TPMmuckraker some additional, pertinent questions, asking:

1. Did the leaker know it was a violation? 2. Was the leak politically motivated? 3. A solo action, or conspiracy of 2 or more? If the latter, who is the boss?

We'll be working to bring you answers...

Schmucks to the end.

Epic Train Wreck Omega Super Fun Time Fail

The train wreck that is McSame/Palin just got hit by another train the jumped the tracks from four counties over, and is now busy trying to make baby train wrecks with the first train wreck (h/t BooMan):

Wolf Blitzer: And this just coming into the "Situation Room," the Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin now speaking out openly about her intentions in 2012 if, if she and John McCain were to lose this contest next Tuesday. In an interview with ABC News, Sarah Palin is now saying, she would be interested in remaining a serious national political figure, going ahead to 2012. She was asked what happens in 2012 if you lose on Tuesday, would you simply go back to Alaska? Elizabeth Vargas of ABC News asked her and Palin said this, and I will read it to you verbatim according to an ABC News transcript: "Absolutely not," Sarah Palin says. "I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we've taken, that ... that would ... bring this whole ... I'm not doin' this for naught," and that is a direct quote from Sarah Palin. Clearly, leaving open the possibility that she would be interested in leading the Republican Party in 2012 if she and John McCain were to lose this presidential contest right now.

EPIC. CAMPAIGN. MESSAGE. FAIL.

Dick Morris Explains It All

...about how McSame wins the election:

1. TAXES!
2. JEREMIAH WRIGHT!
3. SOCIALISM!

Because of course that's been working so well over the last month.

This has been another episode of Dick Morris, Worst Pundit In America.

The Pennsylvania Polka

The GOP dirty tricks brigade in the Keystone State is bad enough to look like the Keystone Kops. First was the EPIC FAIL surrounding Ashley Todd's hoax, and now news that the PA GOP sent an email to 75,000 Jewish voters that warns Obama will cause another Holocaust.

The state GOP is now running away from that email as fast as it can. The AP leads with the state GOP's disavowal of the email, but it seems a bit more complicated than that. There doesn't seem to be any dispute that the state party or one of its committees sent the email. The party's defense seems to be that the consultant who the party hired wasn't authorized to send that particular email and was fired.

Except the AP got in touch with the consultant and that's not quite the story he tells:

Political consultant Bryan Rudnick was identified as the person responsible for it. Rudnick, reached Saturday night, confirmed that he no longer works for the party, which employed him a few weeks ago as a consultant to do outreach to Jewish voters.

"I had authorization from party officials" to send the e-mail, Rudnick said, but he declined to say who had signed off on it. "I'm not looking to drag anyone else through the mud, so I'm not naming names right now," he said.

That's a pretty good story in its own right: Another under-the-radar GOP sleaze tactic exposed and yet another low- to mid-level GOP operative scapegoated because he got caught on the wrong side of the McCain campaign's shifting line between what is just sleazy and what is too sleazy (a line that seems to get drawn immediately after the GOP gets busted).

But it gets better.

Like the state GOP, the McCain camp is running away from this email, and the spokesperson doing the distancing is none other than Peter Feldman. That's the same guy who on Thursday, the day the email went out, was pushing the mugging hoax to reporters as a politically motivated attack by a black Obama supporter, playing to the worst of white fears and racial prejudices.

Speaking of the email to Jewish voters and without any apparent hint of irony, Feldman told the AP Saturday night that McCain "rejects politics that degrade our civics."

Amazing.

No word on whether the AP asked Feldman about his role in pushing the mugging hoax.

McSame has no honor left. None. And yet the righty whackjobs out there are convinced this soulless piece of garbage is going to magically win, because Hillary supporters will defect en masse at the voting booth.

If McSame does end up President, we deserve the hell we cast ourselves into.

Off The Snowmobile Reservation

When you have CNN reporting as its front page story that your own campaign staff has come forward to say that your own running mate has deliberately sabotaged your campaign not ten days before the election, you've lost.

With 10 days to go until Election Day, long-brewing tensions between GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and key aides to Sen. John McCain have become so intense they are spilling out in public, sources say.

Several McCain advisers have suggested to CNN that they have become increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin "going rogue." A Palin associate, however, said the candidate is simply trying to "bust free" of what she believes was a damaging and mismanaged roll-out.

McCain sources say Palin has gone off message several times, and they privately wonder if the incidents were deliberate. They cited that she labeled robocalls -- recorded messages often used to attack a candidate's opponent -- "irritating" even as the campaign defended their use. Also, they pointed to her telling reporters she disagreed with the campaign's decision to pull out of Michigan.

A second McCain source tells CNN she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.

"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

"Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom."

They're done, ladies and gentlemen. It's over. The GOP base will be so demoralized by this that the Obama landslide is all but certain. Palin and her supporters are already angling for 2010 and 2012. The GOP is about to split down the middle, with moderate Republicans (Obamacans? Barackerfeller Republicans?) jumping ship and the diehard Palinites staying on, screaming at their own impotence.

The Schism is here. Politico.com has more.

The emergence of a Palin faction comes as Republicans gird for a battle over the future of their party: Some see her as a charismatic, hawkish conservative leader with the potential, still unrealized, to cross over to attract moderate voters. Anger among Republicans who see Palin as a star and as a potential future leader has boiled over because, they say, they see other senior McCain aides preparing to blame her in the event he is defeated.

"These people are going to try and shred her after the campaign to divert blame from themselves," a McCain insider said, referring to McCain's chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, and to Nicolle Wallace, a former Bush aide who has taken a lead role in Palin's campaign. Palin's partisans blame Wallace, in particular, for Palin's avoiding of the media for days and then giving a high-stakes interview to CBS News' Katie Couric, the sometimes painful content of which the campaign allowed to be parceled out over a week.

"A number of Gov. Palin's staff have not had her best interests at heart, and they have not had the campaign's best interests at heart," the McCain insider fumed, noting that Wallace left an executive job at CBS to join the campaign.

Wallace declined to engage publicly in the finger-pointing that has consumed the campaign in the final weeks.

"I am in awe of [Palin's] strength under constant fire by the media," she said in an e-mail. "If someone wants to throw me under the bus, my personal belief is that the most graceful thing to do is to lie there."

This public, unprofessional, and complete disintegration of coherence 10 days before the election is a sign of just how hopelessly split the entire GOP is over this. There are those who will blame Sarah Palin for the disastrous loss of the ticket, and those who will blame John McSame for the loss.

But they will lose. There is no way this public bloodletting will do anything but completely demoralize GOP voters to the point where the Republican Party may not survive as we know it. from the ashes, who knows what will arise.

It will not be the modern GOP. Whether it's a moderate party or a radical fringe movement, this complete crackup is liable to give the Democrats control of the country for a very, very long time.

Liberalgeddon!

McSame's almost out of time. With ten days to go, he's now making the argument that only he can save America from LIBERALGEDDON.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain on Saturday raised the prospect of a complete Democratic takeover of Washington as a reason to elect him over Democrat Barack Obama in 10 days.

McCain, struggling to defend New Mexico and other Western states that typically vote Republican from falling for Obama on November 4, used the argument to try to change a gloomy election picture.

Obama holds a commanding lead in national opinion polls and leading in several key battleground states that McCain needs to win. In a text of remarks he was to deliver later in Reno, Nevada, Obama hammers McCain as little different than President George W. Bush

At an Albuquerque rally, McCain accused the Illinois senator of seeking to raise taxes on most Americans, particularly small businesses responsible for much of the hiring during a severe economic downturn in which hundreds of thousands of jobs have been shed.

Obama says his plan to tax Americans making more than $250,000 would allow a tax cut for 95 percent of Americans.

McCain said having Democrats in control of the White House, the U.S. House of Representatives under Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and the Senate under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, would give Democrats unfettered power.

Riding Americans' desire for a change from the Bush administration, Democrats appear poised to make major gains in the House and Senate.

"Senator Obama's tax increase would put even more people out of work," McCain said. "We've seen this before in other countries. It doesn't work. The answer to a strong economy is not higher taxes."

"But that is exactly what's going to happen if the Democrats have total control of Washington. We can't let that happen. Are you ready for Obama, Pelosi and Reid?" the Arizona senator said.

The answer would appear to be an overwhelming yes, Senator.

America is indeed more than ready for a realignment election that repudiates the GOP totally and completely, and that election is a mere 10 days away.

How Does McSame Win?

With McSame all but surrendering Colorado, Virginia and Iowa, and playing directly for "low-information" white voters in rural Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, how does he get to 270?

The map for McSame is actually pretty simple: The battleground states are now IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, PA, and FL. McSame must now take ALL SEVEN of those states to win. His firewall, Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa, are gone. His back is against the wall...he simply cannot afford to lose any more states.

Polls are showing Florida and North Carolina may go to his column now, but Indiana, Nevada, and especially Ohio are slipping away, and Obama's lead is just too much in PA.

At this point he's going to need a miracle. We'll know more next week.

As Your Sworn Enemy, We Have To Say We Like The Angry Old Guy

It seems our old friends in Al Qaeda would really, really like to see John McAngry in charge of the country after Bush, according to Matt Yglasias.

Interesting Associated Press report on al-Qaeda’s thinking about the upcoming election:

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

Now of course it would be silly for a voter to base his decision on a desire to spite al-Qaeda. The right thing to do is for everyone to reach an independent judgment about whose policies would best advance the public interest. This musing is, however, interesting:

“If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests,” the message said, “this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”

There’s no telling what al-Qaeda is actually capable of doing at this point. But it’s well-known that al-Qaeda does try to influence western elections. We saw it with the Madrid bombings before the Spanish elections, and then we saw it with the October 2004 bin Laden tape that the CIA believes was designed to boost George W. Bush’s re-election fortunes. Al-Qaeda members will probably be able to come up with something to do between now and Election Day to help push things in the direction they prefer.

And that about wraps it up for the McSame campaign, I'm thinking. Even freaking Al Qaeda thinks McSame is a volcanic hothead whom they can manipulate into spending more blood and treasure in Iraq...after all we've already wasted trillions there, not to mention the thousands of American soldiers who were killed fighting a war with no real end in sight. They know McSame will continue Bush's wars...in fact they are counting on it so that they can continue to bankrupt us.

Let's look at what AQ has done: they have caused two recessions, tied us up in two wars, blown all our goodwill, and bankrupted us for a good five trillion plus, all done for the low low price of some martyrs, a couple of f'ckin box cutters, some fake IDs, a video camera, and internet access.

Can we all agree that we're being sandbagged now? Can we agree that McSame is just more Bush? Can we agree we need to ge the hell out of Iraq? Of course AQ wants McSame in charge, so they can give us enough outrage to hang ourselves with.

The McSame Negative Attacks Aren't Working

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll is a disaster for McSame.

With two weeks to go until Election Day, Obama now leads his Republican rival by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

McSame is getting killed across the board. Obama is now ahead in PA, VA, and CO...meaning he can win without Florida or Ohio. So what's killing McSame? 3 things: the economy, nobody cares about Bill Ayers, and Sarah Palin's massive negative numbers.

That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

Pause and reflect on that...voters think Sarah Palin is now a larger problem for McSame than President Bush is.

He's done. 10 points with 2 weeks to go? Not going to happen.

Obama's Job Creation Versus McSame's Spending Freeze

The debate raging on how to fix the economy is the government's role in all of this, whether or not we should increase spending right now, or sharply curtail it and cut taxes instead. Both plans will increase the deficit. That's the important thing to remember. McSame wants to cut the tax rate on corporations and businesses and deregulate health care coverage, but cut spending across the board. Obama wants to increase spending on health care and education, and cut taxes on the middle class, but raise taxes on the wealthy.

The first approach, McSame's, is best described by Digby: Neo-Hooverism.

I see that Donna Brazile signed up for neo-Hooverism on the Sunday chat shows this morning, seeking to constrain a potential Democratic Administration by suggesting we have to tighten our belts in the middle of a recession, which is nothing short of economic suicide. I can tell you that this is not a unanimous view inside the Democratic inner circle, based on what I experienced yesterday.

I was fortunate enough to see Bill Clinton at a small-group discussion in Century City for a group of entertainment industry professionals. This was not a campaign event, and indeed the President was somewhat constrained by campaign finance laws to really advocate for any candidate. But aside from Clinton announcing his preference for Gray's Anatomy and Boston Legal, what was most notable was his discussion of the hypothetical "first 100 days" for a new President. This is from my notes:

The next President is going to face much different challenges than what I faced in 1993, and he can't do the same things... he shouldn't try to fix the deficit right away, but he's going to have to stimulate the economy by paying for things that are useful... we have had too much risk and not enough legislation... we need a government strong enough to prevent the market from devouring itself... I was happy to see Senator Obama call for a moratorium on foreclosures, and we also need to do what we did in the 1930s by buying up these mortgages and giving homeowners the ability to stay in their homes, to minimize disruption and maximize confidence... so let's stimulate the economy, and give birth to a new economy based on old-fashioned financing and modern products. It cannot be based on finance.

Obviously Clinton is part of a different side of the Democratic Party than Senator Obama. But there's a significant amount of overlap, and to hear the President who ushered in deficit reduction and fiscal responsibility in the 1990s recognize very clearly the need for stimulus, in the areas of infrastructure, job creation and the new energy economy, makes me very much reassured and hopeful. And indeed, in the last debate Obama pushed back on the idea of reinstituting PAYGO during a time of recession. This idea of helping state and local governments, putting money into infrastructure and green energy and jobs is very much a part of Obama's stimulus policies. They need to be bigger, but there's no trace of neo-Hooverism there.

If McSame's approach is Neo-Hooverism, then the opposite is what we need. If both the Clinton and Obama wings of the Dems agree that stimulus spending and job creation, a sort of Neo-New Dealism, is the way to go, like Digby I've got hope.

But the GOP will do everything they can to stop it, as will the Village. Neither one of them is interested in seeing Government help people. They yell "Socialism!" even as the financial system gets trillions in taxpayer money redistributed to it, with the full intention of saying "OK, we got ours, we simply can't afford to help YOU poor schmucks now. You're on your own. You get to use the free market, and since you can't compete with us...you lose. Have a nice day."

On the other hand, we will have to eventually massivley restrain spending or massively raise taxes. Bush doubled our national debt in 8 years. We have no choice, America is still in hock to China and Saudi Arabia, not to mention held hostage by entitlement programs. Obama has decided to go with raising taxes for a bit, while McSame wants to cut spending.

We've gone with 30 years or so of cutting taxes. Didn't work...and spending exploded anyway. It's time for a different approach.

That is if the economic system doesn't fall apart. There's no guarantee that we're out of the worst of the crisis yet...we've just punted into an undetermined point in the future.

Zandar's Thought Of the Day

Obama's going to need that $150 million plus whatever he gets down the stretch here. Every penny of it. Despite all the ads and the spending and the debate wins and the economy and the weaknesses of McSame/Palin/Preznitman/Nameless One...he still has to get 270 electoral votes, the GOP is pulling out all the sleaziest, most horrific garbage imaginable, and they have lost control over their Hatenstein's monster.

Everything I have seen so far has indicated to me that this may be the most turbulent two weeks America has seen in generations, and I have my doubts that this election will be over by November 4. Once again I believe this will go to the courts, I just don't know which state will be the margin, perhaps NC or Missouri or Ohio or Florida or even Colorado.

I just don't believe in the Obama getting 350-400 EV theory. It's going to be one state deciding this election again.

But which one?

Virginia, West Virginia, And Real Virginia

McSame spokesperson Nancy Pfotenhauer isn't even trying to hide the "Dems are anti-American" slant anymore, directly calling the red parts of southern Virginia the "Real Virginia" on MSNBC. The Democrats that moved in from DC, you know -- hippies and colored people --they're polluting the Commonwealth or something. Nancy then got busy rattling off other "real" states like Minnesota's iron range, rural Pennsylvania and Indiana. Rest of the country is full of traitors, apparently.



The MSNBC host gives her an out on the "Real Virginia" crack. She then steps in it even further by saying it's the "part of the state that's more Southern in nature". Northern Virginia is apparently just "Metro DC". Hell, DC doesn't even have a Senator. It's not a real state, they aren't real people, and they're going to put "That One" in office. You don't have to be a genius to hear the "real Virginia is more Southernin nature" dog whistle when a black man is running.

They're not even trying to use the outs and free passes the media is giving them anymore. That's how much they hate America for turning on the GOP...Democratic areas of the country and the people who live there just don't count as Real America anymore.

Hell, just install McSame as President and take the right to vote away from registered Democrats. They're not real Americans.

Zandar's Thought Of the Day

When GOP party officials, sitting GOP members of Congress, and campaign officials up to and including the douchebag running for President say ACORN ACORN DEMOCRAT VOTER FRAUD REZKO BLOOGITY BLAH BLAH OSAMA BIN BIDEN ACORN MUSLIM PLANT SOCIALIST TERRORIST AYERS ACORN SCARY BLACK MAN IN THE FOYER I SAY OLD CHAP I MUST ABSCOND TO THE BILLIARDS ROOM AND RETRIEVE MY BLUNDERBUSS WHAT WHAT REZKO ACORN TRAITOR! *deep breath* what they really mean is:

1. Do not pay any attention to arguably the worst-kept secret in America that is our continuing effort to steal this election (which we admit isn't going so well right now.)
   
2. In case #1 is unsuccessful, our official excuse as to why our brilliant plan to steal the election didn't work is that Obama must have stolen the election. Get him.

So yeah, I wouldn't put it past these assholes to call for impeachment investigations into Obama's "unprecedented voter fraud" before he even takes office.

You thought they hated Bill Clinton? You have no clue what hate is.

And when the investigation and impeachment calls are laughed off the national stage, the only question is how long will it take before somebody decides to "martyr themselves to save America from Obama" after the hate merchants say "Who will rid me of this troublesome Negro?"

Watch the reaction to that when it inevitably happens. I'm calling now that the wingnuts say:

Despite the tragic actions of this individual, such unfair blanket condemnations of our efforts to have Obama explain the unanswered questions surrounding his so-called "victory" is an affront to free speech. Instead, Mr. Obama owes the people of America a detailed explanation in order to bring closure to the wounded nation to calm the fury against him.

You guys think I'm joking, or engaging in hyperbole that the wingnuts in this country will blame Obama for somebody trying to kill Obama.

I'm not. It's only a question of how long it will take.

Pointing Out McSame's Race-Baiting Proves Obama's A Racist

According to Chuck Krauthammer anyway. He's pissed at his own employer the NY Times calling McSame out on this, and insists that the only racism in this campaign is the stuff Obama's making up...

Let me get this straight. A couple of agitated yahoos in a rally of thousands yell something offensive and incendiary, and John McCain and Sarah Palin are not just guilty by association -- with total strangers, mind you -- but worse: guilty according to The New York Times of "race-baiting and xenophobia."

But should you bring up Barack Obama's real associations -- 20 years with Jeremiah Wright, working on two foundations and distributing money with William Ayers, citing the raving Michael Pfleger as one who helps him keep his moral compass (Chicago Sun-Times, April 2004) and the long-standing relationship with the left-wing vote-fraud specialist ACORN -- you have crossed the line into illegitimate guilt by association. Moreover, it is tinged with racism.

The fact that, when John McCain actually heard one of those nasty things said about Obama, he incurred the boos of his own crowd by insisting that Obama is "a decent person that you do not have to be scared (of) as president" makes no difference. It surely did not stop John Lewis from comparing McCain to George Wallace.

The search for McCain's racial offenses is untiring and often unhinged. Remember McCain's Berlin/celebrity ad that showed a shot of Paris Hilton? An appalling attempt to exploit white hostility at the idea of black men "becoming sexually involved with white women," fulminated New York Times columnist Bob Herbert. He took to TV to denounce McCain's exhumation of that most vile prejudice, pointing out McCain's gratuitous insertion in the ad of "two phallic symbols," the Washington Monument and the Leaning Tower of Pisa.

Hey Chuckles, keep telling yourself there's no racism in this campaign by Republicans that McSame isn't repudiating, especially when his entire campaign is based around plausible deniability of racist smears against Obama.

He then gets the assist from assholes like Chuckles here who clutch their pearls and want to know how dare Democrats (and Republicans and human beings in fact) get upset at this kind of thing, because pointing out these actions means Obama is "playing the cynical race card". The correct answer Chuckles is that when Republicans do this, they get called out on it, which probably explains why your boy Sidney there is losing by double digits.

Debate Deblogging: Parting Shots

One final note: The snap polls have Obama winning even more handily in this debate than the last two.

The first snap polls on the debate are out, and they're giving a resounding win to Barack Obama.

In the CBS poll of undecided debate-watchers, 53% say Obama won, only 22% say McCain won, and 24% say it was a tie.

The CNN poll was just read on the air, surveying all debate-watchers in general. It shows 58% saying Obama won, to 31% saying McCain won. Barack Obama's personal ratings are 66% favorable to 33% unfavorable, way ahead of McCain's score of 49%-49%.

Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were just read on TV. Obama was seen as stating his ideas more clearly by 66%-25%, was seen as the stronger leader by 56%-39%, and was more likable by 70%-22%. McCain did win in one category: He's the candidate who launched more attacks on his opponent, by a whopping 80%-7%.

Late Late Update: Independents, who made up 30% of CNN's sample, gave it to Obama 57%-31%, essentially the same as the overall margin for Obama.

Despite my economic worries...I'm glad it's most likely Obama at the helm and not McSame.

Debate Deblogging: Final Round -- FIGHT!

9:00 PM From Zandardad's alma mater of Hofstra University, Obama vs McSame live. Format is both candidates sit at a large desk with moderator Bob Scheiffer in the middle.

9:01 PM Bob lays out the rules, Domestic Policy, 10 questions, 2 minutes for each then 5 minutes of discussion, 9 minutes total on each question.

Question 1: The economic crisis. Why is your plan better? McSame first. Shoutouts to Nan Reagan. Americans are angry. Short and long term fixes. One short term fix: must put a floor on the housing market, buy mortgages. Disappointed at Paulson.

Obama: Looks at camera, not Bob. Talks about bailout lacking rescue plan for middle class, four points. Job tax breaks, tax cuts for middle class, I agree with my opponent on helping homeowners, I disagree with how he does it. Long term, fix energy, health care. Discussion. McSame tells story about how Obama will put small businesses out of business. No tax increase for you, Joe the Plumber! Obama discusses his tax policy: McSame cuts taxes on corporate America, I wand tax cut for 95% of America. McSame looking patient. My conversation with Joe was that fact he needed at tax cuts. 98% of small businesses will get tax decrease! McSame: Obama's gonna take Joe's money! Class warfare! Why increase ANYONE'S taxes right now? Obama: ExxonMobil and Warren Buffet can afford it. Nobody likes taxes. But we got em. McSame: TAXES! TAX RATE iS 35%! WE'LL LOSE JOBS! CUT BUSINESS TAXES!

Bob: Shut it. Wash, really.

9:13 Question 2: We ran the numbers. Each of you will add $200 billion to the deficit with your plans. I want specifics on what you will cut. Obama: I'm going paygo here, Bob. $15 billion on insurance subsidies and programs that don't work, we cut. We differ on investing in America. If we invest now in health care, we save later, energy too. McSame: HOLC bought up mortgages, they made money, Clinton brought that up. Bob: what are you cutting? McSame: Foreign aid to countries that don't like us. I like energy programs. Spending freeze, I will take the hatchet, ethanol subsidies, tarrifs, I can save billions! I will veto earmarks! Obama likes earmarks! I cut pork! Obama: Across the board spending is a hatchet, John. We need a scalpel. Earmarks are crap in the long run. Bush came in with a surplus, he then doubled the debt and the deficit. McSame voted for Bush. Bob: Can you balance the budget? McSame. Yep, and I'm NOT BUSH YOU WHIPPERSNAPPER! YOU RAISED TAXES! WE CAN TAKE A HATCHET! I will balance the budget, we can do it! OBAMA LOVES PORK! LOOK AT OUR RECORDS! You tell me ONE TIME you stood up to your leaders of your party!
Obama: Tort reform. Charter schools. Clean coal. Yeah, I stood up. If if mistake your policies for Bush's, it's because at the core THEY ARE. You stood up on torture. Economics? 8 more years Bush.
McSame: I got scars! I disagreed! I reject your argument.

Sorry John, you lost this one.

Question 3: Both of you ran mean ass commercials and had attack dogs. Are each of you willing to make those accusations in person, right here, right now? McSame: Town hall meetings would have stopped this. Obama refused. I blame him. I regret how we both attacked...BUT I'm calling Obama out on John Lewis. I repudiated all of the bad attacks unlike Obama. I took the high road and I tell the truth. Obama spent more money on negative ads than anyone in history! He gave up on campaign finance limits! He lied!
Obama: We expect campaigns to be tough. 100% of McSame's ads are negative. People want to hear about the issues instead. The notion that the town hall meetings justify your negative crap is silly. I don't mind being attacked. We can't afford your negative stuff. Stick to the issues. He's changing the subject. I want to see him talk on the economy. He won't. He's politics as usual.
McSame: CARDINALS! You attack my stuff. Your ads are terrible! Unprecedented negative attack ad spending! I'm talking about the economy! I'm talking about Joe the Plumber! I didn't hear your repudiation.
Obama: OK fine, you want to open this can of worms? Let's talk about Palin's hate rallies and people yelling "terrorist! Kill him!" Let's talk about how John Lewis called you on it. I did repudiate him. We have difference on real issues.
McSame: I'm proud of our people, and yeah we call em on it. I'm not gonna stand for anyone picking on my people! I won't stand for it! Yeah let's talk about your rallies! I have repudiated it all, you haven't! Won't stand for it.
Obama: We don't have time for this crap. We've have real issues.
McSame: AYERS! ACORN! GREATEST VOTE FRAUDS IN HISTORY! OBAMA PAID THEM OFF!
Obama: Fine. Bill Ayers is a professor. Let's talk about him. Let's talk about all the people who worked with Ayers, all the REPUBLICANS. ACORN? I helped them along with the Motor Voter laws. Here's who I associate with, Volker, Luger, Buffet, Joe Biden.
McSame: AYERS! ACORN! AYERS! FACTS ARE FACTS! WHAT ARE HIS DETAILS! WE MUST KNOW! Oh, an I'm about the economy. I won't raise taxes like he will.

Obama killed him.

Question 4: Why would your running mate make a better President than the other guy's? Obama: Easy. Joe Biden would kick ass in foreign policy, he's from Scranton, he's been through tough stuff and he's fought for the little guy. McSame: SHE'S A REFORMER! FRESH AIR! TAKE OUT THE OLD BOY NETWORK! Oh and she has a special needs kid. Bob: Hey Barry, you think she's qualified? Obama: She's done some commendable stuff. But we can't do what she wants if we TAKE A HATCHET TO SPENDING. McSame: Biden's a nice guy, but he's been wrong on policy. Obama wants to spend more! REFORM! REFORM! NEW SPENDING! MORE TAXES!

Obama by a mile.

Question 5: Give me a number. How much can we reduce foreign oil in your first term? McSame: We'll cut all Middle East and Venezualan oil. Obama's a punk. Obama: Ten years is realistic. We have to stop borrowing money from China for starters. Expand domestic production, use em or lose em on oil company leases...but we have to use less oil. We must invest in energy. And hey, let's talk about trade agreements we're getting our asses kicked on John. I make no apology for doing that.
McSame: DRILL NOW! Also I love free trade. Also Obama hates Colombia and likes drugs. Free trade is a no brainer. Hey, maybe you should go there you dumb ass. Obama: Yeah, let's talk about Columbia, and the human rights abuses they have against workers, unlike Peru. We have to use free trade, but we need to stand up on bad trade agreements. We need to make efficient autos and cut down on oil and make 5 million new jobs.
Obama: HE HATES COLUMBIA BUT HE'D TALK TO CHAVEZ! HE'S HOOVER!

Nope. Obama.

Question 6: Bob: Control health care costs or expand coverage? Obama: We gotta do both. Two women laid off, have no healthcare. We'll cut costs. You have coverage? You're fine. You don't? We'll combine for a huge pool and negotiate the best rates and prevent discrimination. It'll cost up front, but it'll fix it in the long run.
McSame: It's terrible, but the problem is cost, not coverage. We gotta have healthy people to save money. $5,000 Tax credit! Joe! Obama will fine you! TELL US THE FINE! HEALTH CARE BUREAUCRACY! Obama: The fine is zero you jagoff. I exempt small businesses, like I said LAST DEBATE. Uninsured people are costing you money. Let's talk about McCain's plan again...that $5,000 won't cover if, and YOU CHARGE TAXES ON HEALTH CARE FOR THE FIRST TIME! McSame: YOU'LL PAY A FINE JOE! BIG GOVERNMENT! My plan will save people money and shop plans and don't have to take the employer plan! BIG GOVERNMENT! HE'S SENATOR GOVERNMENT! I WANT YOU TO DO THE JOB! DEMOCRATS' FAULT!
Obama: Look, the US Chamber of Commerce says his plan sucks.

Obama.

Question 7: Bob: Would you appoint a person who disagrees with you on Roe v Wade?
McSame: No litmus tests. I voted for a long list of current justices. Obama voted against Roberts. I will find strict constitutionists. Bob: But would you nominate a pro-choice judge: McSame: Pro-choice judges aren't qualified. Obama: No litmus tests. But PEOPLE have the right to choose, right to privacy. I'd vote for qualified judges. We disagree. Like the Ledbetter case. Judges have to understand fairness and justice.
McSame: We have to change the culture of America. OBAMA VOTES TO KILL BABIES! HE'S AN EXTREMIST PRO-ABORTIONIST! Obama: Not true. I didn't get an exception for the health of the mother. But look, there's common ground: preventing unintended pregancy and options for adoptions. McSame: HE'S PRO ABORTION! WE ADOPTED KIDS! WE MUST DEFEND THE UNBORN!

Wash. Personal views here.

Question 8: Bob: We spend more than anyone on education, but we suck. Obama: The debate is more money vs reform, we need both. Early education, reduce dropout rates, recruit an army of new teachers, more pay in exchange for accountability, make college affordable. $4,000 tuition credit for community service. But the real key are parents. Take responsibility.
McSame: Education is the civil rights issue of the 21st century. We need charter schools and school choice. Competition! Free market! But money's not the answer. We must improve education. More loans, adjust loans.
Bob: More federal money/involvement in education? Obama: Yeah...just not like Bush's NCLB. We never funded the programs and it failed. I agreed with my opponent on charter schools and getting rid of bad teachers. Where we disagree? Vouchers...oh and McSame's record on college affordability. Gotta pay for it. McSame: Gee, vouchers worked in DC. School choice is the key, pay more attention son. Reauthorize NCLB. Head Start sucks though. Let's reform programs! Rewards! Accountability! Sarah Palin! We'll cure autism! Reform! I'm a reformer! Vouchers work!
Obama: He's right about DC schools sucking. But there's 50 states to worry about too. McSame: Hahahah! JACKASS!

Wash. Same crap we've heard before.

Bob: Make your closing statements.
McSame: I'm a new direction! I'm a reformer! I can do this! You can trust me! I'm asking you to look at me. I've served my country like my father and grandfather. I'll serve as your President.
Obama: Tough out there for ya. Worst crisis in 75 years, we need change, I'll bring it. We can do it. We must invest in health care, college, energy jobs. Not gonna be easy or quick, but we can do it. Sacrifice and service.
They shake hands.

It's done.

Obama 5, 3 ties...no contest.

Debate Deblogging: Final Round Preview

And we open up going into the last hurrah for McSame to stop the blood loss. What honestly can the old man do? If he goes on the attack, he reinforces the "mean old man" routine. If he doesn't go on the attack, he loses the base as he pusses out. All Obama has to do is keep counter-punching at his leisure, and he wins. McSame is unstable and is likely to make another "That one!" reference.

Short of the best debate of his life, Obama's lead will continue to grow. We'll see in about ten minutes. I predict another Obama win, but we'll see what the old man has left in the tank. He's not a quitter...and that might ultimately finish him.