Last Call For Thune Out, Turn On, Drop Out

Although the story of congressional retirements heading into 2022 remains the nearly two dozen Democrats in the House heading out, Republican Senate number two John Thune of South Dakota is reportedly also looking for the exit off Capitol Hill.

Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the second-ranking Senate Republican and a potential future leader, is seriously considering retiring after next year, a prospect that has set off an intensifying private campaign from other Republicans urging him to seek re-election.

Mr. Thune is only 60, but a combination of family concerns and former President Donald J. Trump’s enduring grip on the Republican Party have prompted the senator, who is in his third term, to tell associates and reporters in his home state that 2022 could be his last year in Congress.

His departure would be a blow to South Dakota, which has enjoyed outsize influence in Washington, and could upend Senate Republicans’ line of succession. Mr. Thune has been open about his ambition to lead his party’s caucus after Senator Mitch McConnell makes way, and quiet but unmistakable jockeying is already underway between him and Senators John Cornyn of Texas and John Barrasso of Wyoming.

“John is the logical successor should Mitch decide to not run again for leader,” Senator Susan Collins of Maine said of Mr. Thune, while noting that Mr. McConnell’s hold on their caucus remained “very secure.”

That Mr. Thune would even entertain retirement with the chance to ascend to Senate Republican leader illustrates both the strain of today’s Congress and the shadow Mr. Trump casts over the party. The senator’s departure would represent yet another exit, perhaps the most revealing one yet, by a mainstream Senate Republican who has grown frustrated with the capital’s political environment and the former president’s loyalty demands. The exodus began in 2018 with Senators Jeff Flake and Bob Corker retiring rather than facing primaries, and has accelerated this year.

Part of Mr. Thune’s hesitation owes to Mr. Trump and the potential for the former president — who lashed out at Mr. Thune early this year when the senator rejected his attempts to overturn the election — to intervene in South Dakota’s Senate primary race. But the larger factor may be the longer-range prospect of taking over the Senate Republican caucus with Mr. Trump still in the wings or as the party’s standard-bearer in 2024.

Mr. Thune has said he will decide his intentions over the holidays. Yet a number of his friends and colleagues have become convinced that he is serious about leaving public life.

Among those alarmed is Mr. McConnell himself, who one adviser said had “leaned in” on pushing Mr. Thune to run again.

“I certainly hope that he will run for re-election, and that’s certainly what I and others have been encouraging him to do all year long,” Mr. McConnell said in an interview.

 

Jon Martin at the Times makes it clear that doing Trump's personal bidding for another decade after Mitch settles back down here in KY is absolutely not in his cards, and he basically has that seat for life. To give that up makes me think there's a lot more to the story.

It's certainly not that Thune is a moral man, he's a Republican after all.

Sadly, it just means he'll be replaced by a Republican 100% loyal to Trump instead of say, 95%.

Straw Mitt Argument

Mitt Romney was the clear winner in Saturday's New Hampshire GOP straw poll for 2012, taking 35% of the vote.  The top ten vote getters:

Mitt Romney 35.14%
Ron Paul 10.51%
Tim Pawlenty 7.61%
Sarah Palin 6.88%
Michele Bachmann 5.07%
Jim DeMint 5.07%
Herman Cain 3.99%
Chris Christie 3.26%
Rick Santorum 3.26%
Mitch Daniels 2.90%

Of course, that means 65% of Republicans in New Hampshire think Mitt sucks.  Going to be really interesting to see what happens, considering 5% of New Hampshire's GOP muckity-mucks want to see Michele Bachmann as president.

If guys like Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich are coming in behind Rick Santorum and the Bachmanniac, and getting less than 3% of the vote (and my math shows 16.31% of the total vote was split among at least 10 other people) there's no hope for a "moderate" GOP at all, folks...unless you think Romney's going to survive.  Once the rest of the field realizes the game's wide open once Mittens has to be made to exit, it's going to be the craziest winger left standing in 2012.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

Popcorn time!

The new Quinnipiac poll shows Sarah Palin holding a narrow plurality among Republicans across the country for the party's presidential nomination in 2012. And at the same time, the poll makes clear that while President Obama is vulnerable in a closely-divided country, Palin would be the GOP's worst possible nominee for the general election race.

Among Republicans and GOP-leaners: Palin 19%, Romney 18%, Huckabee 17%, Gingrich 15%. Bringing up the rear are Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Haley Barbour 2%, Mitch Daniels 2%, and John Thune 2%. The Republican primary poll has a ±3.1% margin of error.

And for the national match-ups against Obama:
• Obama leads Palin by 48%-40%
• Romney edges Obama by 45%-44%.
• Obama edges Huckabee by 46%-44%.
• Obama leads the lesser-known Daniels by 45%-36%.
The survey of registered voters has a ±2% margin of error.

As I've said before, the only guy who has a real chance vs Obama is Romney, and there's no way he wins the primary.   Let's not forget Quinnipiac was the most accurate of the major pollsters, either.  That 4 way tie for first is not going to last long.  The real battle begins as soon as Sarah Palin declares.

Thune Enough

As widely expected, South Dakota Republican Sen. John Thune has tossed his hat into the ring of 2012 contenders.

“He thinks his family would be on board. ‘I’m taking a very full look at it,’ he says. And why not. The Republican field is wide open. And Obama is vulnerable.”

Thune gets a high-level endorsement, from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)
“I think he’s the complete package and is the kind of person who could conceivably go the distance in a race for the presidency,” McConnell told Hayes. “I think he’s an extraordinary talent, and I hope that he will run and win.’”

Hayes adds that Thune faces “many obstacles”: “He has virtually no national profile. He worked briefly as a lobbyist. He voted for TARP. He is a defender of earmarks. He would be running against Washington from Washington. … Despite his proximity to those who craft the Republican agenda, Thune does not have a signature issue—something Thune skeptics point to as a liability for a potential presidential candidate.”

In other words, in an arena with Huckabee's religious baggage, Romney's religious, social, and economic baggage as Massachusetts' Mormon Governor, and the looming specter of Sarah Palin, John Thune emerges as "the kinda harmless, not-crazy one".

He will go far with that.  That is, right up until the Tea Party demands he chug the hard-core right-wing Purple Drank.  The reality is unless Thune goes full Birther lunatic fringe, he'll never advance past the primary.  And if he does, he'll never win the general.

A Thune/Palin ticket however might be the compromise he's looking for...but I don't ever see Sarah Palin playing second fiddle again.

New tag:  Mostly Harmless John Thune.