Last Call For The Gaetz Of Heck

With House GOP Clown Wrangler Kevin McCarthy having cut a deal with Democratic House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries to punt the shutdown ball 45 days down the field, it's now incumbent upon the House Clown Caucus to make good on their threat to remove McCarthy as House Speaker, and Rep. Matt Gaetz says he'll try to do just that this week.

Speaking with CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union,” the Florida Republican said he intends to file a motion to vacate this week, which would force a vote on whether McCarthy will keep his job.

“Speaker McCarthy made an agreement with House conservatives in January and since then he’s been in brazen, repeated material breach of that agreement,” Gaetz said Sunday. “This agreement that he made with Democrats to really blow past a lot of the spending guardrails we set up is a last straw.”

He added, “I do intend to file a motion to vacate against Speaker McCarthy this week. I think we need to rip off the Band-Aid. I think we need to move on with new leadership that will be trustworthy.”

That promise from Gaetz is an escalation in the monthslong standoff between McCarthy and the right flank of his conference, which forced him to go through 15 rounds of votes in January to finally win the speaker’s gavel. As part of winning the top job in the House, McCarthy made a deal that would allow just one member to advance a motion to vacate. That deal has kept the California Republican walking a tight rope with his conference throughout the year as he tried to appease the right-wing of his caucus while also attempting to do the basic work of governing.

McCarthy’s response to Gaetz later on Sunday was straightforward, telling the Floridian to “bring it on.”

“That’s nothing new,” McCarthy said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“Yes, I’ll survive. You know, this is personal with Matt. Matt voted against the most conservative ability to protect our border, secure our border. He’s more interested in securing TV interviews than doing something.”

He added: “So be it, bring it on. Let’s get over with it and let’s start governing.”

McCarthy’s moment of reckoning may have finally come after President Joe Biden on Saturday signed the bill to keep the government open until mid-November just minutes before funding was set to expire at midnight. McCarthy made a sharp about-face earlier in the day and worked with Democrats to overwhelmingly pass a continuing resolution that would avoid a shutdown. The Senate also passed the bill on a bipartisan basis later on Saturday.

That move by McCarthy could well cost him his job, as Gaetz has been promising almost daily. CNN reported on Friday that Gaetz has been approaching Democrats about potential successors to McCarthy if he were to file a motion to vacate, which would force the House to vote on whether to oust the speaker.

McCarthy has been defiant and on Saturday challenged his detractors to try and push him out of the job.

“If somebody wants to make a motion against me, bring it,” McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju at a press conference. “There has to be an adult in the room. I am going to govern with what’s best for this country.”

The Florida Republican accused McCarthy of lying in negotiations over the continuing resolution.

“Look, the one thing everybody has in common is that nobody trusts Kevin McCarthy. He lied to Biden, he lied to House conservatives. He had appropriators marking to a different number altogether. And the reason we were backed up against the shutdown politics is not a bug of the system. It’s a feature,” he said.

A senior Democratic source told CNN that most members of their caucus are skeptical about saving McCarthy given that he has shown little interest in working with Democrats and launched an impeachment inquiry into Biden.

McCarthy, multiple sources said, has yet to reach out to Democratic leaders in a serious negotiation on this issue. But there could be some rank-and-file Democratic moderates who try to find a way to help McCarthy stay in power if they get something in exchange.

Another Democratic source said the caucus will give House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries room to navigate this and the caucus will discuss this week.

Still, Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Sunday in a separate interview on “State of the Union” that she would “absolutely” vote to oust McCarthy.

“I think Kevin McCarthy is a very weak speaker. He clearly has lost control of his caucus. He has brought the United States and millions of Americans to the brink, waiting until the final hour to keep the government open, and even then only issuing a 45-day extension,” she said.

So now we get to see fully what Rep. Jeffries has learned at the feet of the best House Speaker to ever play this game, Nancy Pelosi. What will the price be for McCarthy to save his job? Can Chuck Schumer get the Senate compromise announced last week passed? Will Mitch McConnell knife McCarthy in the front and scrap any deal, meaning House Dems will pull out and leave McCarthy to the tender mercies of Matt Gaetz? 

I think the latter is the most likely outcome, as I've been saying. If Gaetz can oust McCarthy because McCarthy can't keep his end of the bargain -- and at this point Jeffries and the Dems would be crazy to trust McCarthy at all -- who will replace him?

This is the real show, and it's about to begin.

Last Call For Hammer Heads

The security video of Paul Pelosi's attacker being released this weekend should end the ridiculous conspiracy theories, but as Vanity Fair's Bess Levin reminds us, we all know that the Right-Wing Noise Machine will just move the goalposts.

 

In the immediate wake of a man breaking into Nancy Pelosi’s San Fransisco home and viciously attacking her husband, the right-wing media, Republicans, and their conservative followers got into formation to do what they do best: spread baseless rumors about the assault and mock the victim.

Tucker Carlson fueled conspiracy theories that Paul Pelosi and his attacker, David DePape, were lovers. Elon Musk, who’d become the owner of Twitter just three days prior, shared a story with his 112 million followers from a website known to traffic in false information, that the man was a prostitute with whom Pelosi had gotten into a dispute. (He later deleted the tweet but not before writing, “There is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye.”) Donald Trump Jr. retweeted a “Paul Pelosi” Halloween costume made up of simply underwear and hammer, writing: “The internet remains undefeated.” Representative Claudia Tenney commented “LOL” on a photo of a group of men holding hammers beside a gay pride flag, before deleting the tweet. Charlie Kirk, the conservative YouTube host, said on his podcast he hoped an “amazing patriot” would go bail out DePape, “ask him some questions,” and become a “midterm hero.”

On Thursday, Fox News host Sean Hannity had a guest on his show who speculated that set-to-be-released footage of the attack would “not help the prosecution” and raise “more questions than it answers.”

On Friday, footage of the attack was released. In addition to being deeply difficult to watch—viewers can see the moment when DePape beats the 82-year-old Pelosi with a hammer—it also makes the gang at Fox News and beyond not only look very stupid but like the depraved ghouls they are. Will they see it that way and apologize to the victim and his family? We’re going to go out on a limb and assume the answer starts with an “h” and ends with a “—ell f--king no.” Are you familiar at all with how these people operate? They’re about to double down, if they haven’t already.

 

Yep. This is going to be an enduring conspiracy theory, and your Fox-watching uncle will go to his grave believing it.

 

 

Shutdown Countdown, Con't

The omnibus spending bill to keep the government open passed easily in the Senate, despite Republican efforts to sabotage the bill with poison pill amendments. The better news is several long-awaited and badly-needed pieces of legislation were added to the bill, including the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, and the big one, the Electoral Count Reform Act.

The bill overcame a last-minute snag late Wednesday over a GOP-demanded amendment to keep the Trump-era Title 42 border policy in place. Democrats agreed to hold a vote on their amendment alongside a Democratic alternative. Both failed, and the delicate coalition for the bill stayed intact. Other amendments were approved.

After a yearslong fight, senators approved including the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act as part of the omnibus package, offering protections against discrimination for pregnant workers. The last-ditch effort was led by Sens. Patty Murray, D-Wash., Richard Burr, R-N.C., Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Bob Casey, D-Pa.

“For far too long, too many workers excited about welcoming a new baby had to worry about losing their jobs — all because their employers could deny them basic, low-cost accommodations like a bathroom break or a stool to sit on,” Murray said in a statement, calling the measure “a big and important step forward.”

Another bill to expand accommodations for pumping in the workplace also passed as part of the tranche of amendments, cementing another victory for pregnant women and new moms. It was offered by Sens. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.

In a statement, Murkowski called the amendment's passage “good progress toward ensuring no mother ever has to choose between a job and nursing her child.”

The omnibus bill moved forward 75-20 in the Senate on Tuesday, overcoming staunch opposition from conservative Republicans to win the 60 votes necessary to ensure passage. Before the final vote Wednesday, the Senate defeated a series of amendments that GOP members had demanded in exchange for dropping their threats to drag out the bill for days.

One of those opponents, Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, pushed back against McConnell's view. “I don’t understand how that’s a big win for Republicans,” he said. “I do think this is harmful to Republicans. We have a Republican leader in the House and a Republican leader in the Senate taking diametrically opposed positions. And I’m with McCarthy on this one.”

GOP leaders in the House are pressuring members to vote against the bill, which will have to rely on mostly Democratic votes to pass.

The office of House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., told Republicans the bill was "designed to sideline the incoming Republican House Majority by extending many programs for multiple years" and criticized its "large funding increases" for Democratic priorities.

The legislation also includes a rewrite of an 1887 federal election law to close loopholes that then-President Donald Trump and his team sought to exploit on Jan. 6, 2021, to make it harder for presidential candidates to steal elections. It would also grant extra funds to the Justice Department for Jan. 6 prosecutions.

Schumer said the election measures in the bill would “preserve our democracy for generations to come.”

Trump said it was "probably better" to reject the election changes.

"I don’t care whether they change The Electoral Count Act or not, probably better to leave it the way it is so that it can be adjusted in case of Fraud," he wrote on his social media platform, arguing that the desire in Congress to clarify the law validates his belief that the vice president had the power to overturn the 2020 result.

Proponents of the changes say that the 1887 law is poorly written and that it was never intended to give the vice president such power — and that the new legislation would make that abundantly clear.

“It’s going to stop the kind of stuff we saw on Jan. 6, where a sitting president tried to take the election and become dictator of this country,” Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, a moderate Democrat, said Wednesday on MSNBC’s "Morning Joe." “It’s an important piece of legislation that was worked on in a bipartisan way.”

 

The fight's not over, however. House Republicans have vowed to scuttle the bill Friday and shut down the government on Christmas Eve, but they'll need Democratic votes to do it. And frankly, the legislation locks funding into place for a lot of programs for two years, meaning Kevin McCarthy and the Dumbass Crew won't be able to take things apart this time next year.

No, I expect Nancy Pelosi's final act as the most effective and powerful House Speaker in generations will be to guide the House to pass the Senate version and hang up her gavel as the GOAT one last time.

America will miss her when it comes to whatever Republican takes her job in a couple weeks, because whoever it is, they are doomed. And I still say that it won't be McCarthy.

Last Call For The Old Guard And The New Blood

House Democrats elected new leadership for 2023, with Speaker Nancy Pelosi turning the caucus leadership over to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the first Black man to lead a House or Senate party conference.

 

House Democrats elected their new leadership team Wednesday, ushering in a younger generation of leaders after Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer decided to step aside after Democrats narrowly lost the majority this month.

Pelosi, 82, of California, the first female speaker of the House, will pass the torch to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., 52, who ran unopposed for minority leader and will make history as the first Black lawmaker to lead a political party’s caucus in either chamber.

"Today, with immense pride, I stood in front of the House Democratic Caucus as a candidate for Democratic Leader, and I am eternally grateful for the trust my colleagues placed in me with their votes," Jeffries said in a statement.

Jeffries’ top deputy will be Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Mass., 59, a progressive who served under Jeffries as vice chair of the Democratic Caucus and rose to assistant speaker this Congress. She was elected minority whip, the party’s top vote counter.

Rounding out the trio of new leaders is Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., 43, a Congressional Hispanic Caucus member and former mayor who was elected Democratic Caucus chairman — the role Jeffries has held for the past four years.

The election of Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar represents a changing of the guard for House Democrats who have seen the powerful triumvirate of Pelosi, Hoyer, D-Md., 83, and Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., 82, occupy top leadership posts for the past two decades.

“This is a moment of transition,” Jeffries told a small group of reporters in the Capitol on Tuesday night. “We stand on the shoulders of giants, but are also looking forward to being able to do what’s necessary at this moment to advance the issues.”

Of the current “Big Three” Democrats, only Clyburn, the current majority whip, has opted to stay in leadership in the new Congress. He will run for the job of “assistant leader,” which has been considered the No. 3 post in the minority in the past but will shift down to the No. 4 job this Congress.

 

Clyburn will run for the opportunity to assist, but at this point the House Democratic Caucus now belongs to Gen Xers like myself, and it's about time. Hell, Aguilar counts as an Elder Millennial, and not a white dude in sight, either.

 

I have a damn good feeling about this, especially given that the Republicans will be throwing paint on the walls for the next two months. The Dems are ready to go now.

 

Go get 'em, team.

 

 

Long Train Runnin', Con't

As I mentioned last week, the Biden administration's deal with rail unions to avert a rail strike has all but fallen apart, to the point where President Biden is calling on Congress to force them to accept the deal, and that was always going to be the endgame.

As a proud pro-labor President, I'm reluctant to override the ratification procedures and views of those who voted against the agreement.

But in this case – where the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt millions – I believe Congress must use its powers to adopt this deal.

— President Biden (@POTUS) November 29, 2022

 

The railroad companies are still terrible, and the deal is an improvement, but the unions are going to be broken here and they're choosing to go down swinging.

Yes, I know the $2 billion per day figure is probably going to be a lot more damage due to secondary and tertiary effects, and it's going to crater the holiday shopping season. The unions could technically strike as soon as Monday and frankly they have a ton of leverage here.

The leverage the rail unions have in extracting concessions from the rail industry is why unions were created in the first place. They have kids, medical bills, and debts to pay too. They have a reason for this fight.

Granted, the September agreement is more than the unions had, but yes, Pelosi and the House are expected to vote on the package very soon.

If a deal is not reached -- or forced by Congress -- then a strike could begin after the Dec. 9 deadline. Outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a statement Monday night that the House will soon take up such legislation and won't modify the agreed-upon terms from September.

Like Biden, she said, "We are reluctant to bypass the standard ratification process for the Tentative Agreement -- but we must act to prevent a catastrophic nationwide rail strike, which would grind our economy to a halt."

The tentative contract included a 24% compounded wage increase and $5,000 total in lump-sum payments.

Pelosi praised certain elements of that deal but said, "Democrats are continuing to fight for more of railroad workers' priorities, including paid sick leave." Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., a member of the Democratic caucus, has said his colleagues should do more for workers.

The two largest unions had initially highlighted how the tentative agreement included "wage increases, bonuses, with no increases to insurance copays and deductibles" and improved time-off policies, which had become a sticking point.

While eight of the 12 rail unions then went on to formally ratify the agreement, four rejected it -- including the largest in the nation, with 50.8% of its workers voting against the deal.

Some of the workers' groups who rejected the agreement cited frustration with compensation and working conditions, particularly a lack of paid sick days.

They have the right to do that, but ultimately they can be broken by Congress and the President, and again, that was always going to be the outcome. They get to say they fought for it tooth and nail and they did.

On the other hand, Bernie Sanders, or any Senator, could delay a vote until after the strike deadline and that could get very messy very quickly.

We'll see if this train derails the entire economy.

Nancy, Steny, Jim, Hakeem And The Animal House Remake

Republicans have secured 218 House seats to secure control of the lower chamber of Congress, and will probably end up at 221 or 222 (in a dark mirror of the Dems' current 222-213 margin) when the smoke clears and the dust settles. As such, current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced she's stepping down from Democratic leadership.

 

Nancy Pelosi, the first female speaker of the House, who helped shape many of the most consequential laws of the early 21st century, said Thursday that she will step down after two decades as the Democratic Party’s leader in the chamber.

“With great confidence in our caucus I will not seek re-election to Democratic leadership in the next Congress," Pelosi said in a speech on the House floor.


Pelosi was speaker from 2007 to 2011 and returned to the top job in 2019. She announced her decision just a day after NBC News and other news outlets projected that Republicans had flipped control of the House in last week’s midterm election, sending Pelosi and the Democrats back to the minority.

More personally, just weeks ago, her husband of nearly 60 years, Paul Pelosi, survived an assault by a hammer-wielding intruder at the family’s home in San Francisco.

Pelosi won't be leaving Congress after winning her 19th term last week. She is expected to remain, at least temporarily, given the GOP’s razor-thin majority.

As Pelosi took the mic, the chamber was packed with Democratic lawmakers, while the Republican side of the aisle was largely empty — a symbol of how politics have changed over Pelosi’s three and a half decades in the House. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., did not attend the speech in person, but House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., was present. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., crossed the Capitol to watch Pelosi speak, while the front row on the Democratic side of the chamber was filled with fellow female lawmakers from California.

 

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is bowing out along with Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, meaning that Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is the favorite to take control of the House Democrats. 

 

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn (S.C.) announced Thursday they will remain in Congress next year but won’t seek a leadership position, joining Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who had announced the same decision moments before.

The surprise development clears the way for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), the current chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, to jump several rungs up the leadership ladder to replace Pelosi in the next Congress, when Republicans will take control of the lower chamber.

In a letter to fellow Democrats, Hoyer said he’s proud of his work in leadership, but “now is the time for a new generation of leaders.” He quickly endorsed Jeffries, who faces no other challenger.

“I look forward to serving as a resource to him, to the rest of our Democratic leadership team, and to our entire Caucus in whatever capacity I can best be of assistance as we move forward together to address the nation’s challenges,” Hoyer wrote.

Hoyer, a 42-year veteran of Capitol Hill, said he intends to return to the powerful Appropriations Committee — a post he had held before joining leadership — to work on issues including education, health care and efforts to boost domestic manufacturing.

“I also look forward to continuing my focus on voting rights, civil rights, and human rights which I have made priorities throughout my public life,” he wrote. 

 

The torch is being passed to a new generation in the House Democratic caucus.

 

But voters having handed control of the House over to the GOP, Republicans are focusing on the important issues to the American voter, like Hunter Biden's laptop and shutting the government down in order to force Medicare and Social Security cuts.

Although House Republicans will still face a Democratic White House and Senate aimed at blocking their legislative aims, McCarthy — who is working feverishly to cement his ascension to speaker despite growing discontent in his ranks — has already made it clear the party plans to launch investigations into the Biden administration and at least one of the president’s family members.

But McCarthy and other leaders will have their hands full as they try to keep their wafer-thin majority united and corral conservative bomb throwers who are clamoring to shut down the government and impeach President Joe Biden and his top allies.

"The era of one-party Democrat rule in Washington is over. Washington now has a check and balance. The American people have a say in their government," McCarthy, flanked by his new leadership team, said Tuesday after he won his race to be the party's nominee for speaker.

Here’s what the new 118th Congress will look like under House GOP rule:

Investigations will dominate the new Congress, from the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and allegations of politicization at the Justice Department to America's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. But none will attract as much attention as the GOP’s planned investigation into the business dealings of the president’s son Hunter two years before a potential Biden re-election bid.

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., the incoming Oversight Committee chairman, has said an investigation into Hunter Biden and other Biden family members and associates will be a priority as Republicans try to determine whether the family’s business activities “compromise U.S. national security and President Biden’s ability to lead with impartiality.”

Republicans allege that Hunter Biden has used his father’s successful political career to enrich himself: He joined the board of a Ukrainian natural gas company in 2019, and an investment firm he co-founded helped a Chinese firm buy a Congolese cobalt mine from a U.S. company in 2016, among other financial endeavors. 

 

Get used to James Comer making Kentuckians look like fools, America.

Last Call For Shutdown Countdown: The Shutdownening

Control of the House remains up for grabs tonight, and may do so for days. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is making it clear that the first order of business in the lame duck session is disarming the debt ceiling bomb that Republicans will try to use next year in order to detonate the US economy.

Congressional Democratic leaders on Sunday vowed to tackle the nation's debt ceiling in coming weeks, saying their party's election victories offer them leverage even as Republicans have promised a potentially explosive fight.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would act while President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats control both chambers.

"Our best shot, I think, is ... to do it now," Pelosi told ABC News' "This Week" program. "Winning the Senate gave us a lot of leverage for how we go forward... in the lame duck," she said.

Schumer said that Senate Democratic leaders would meet this week to discuss the legislative path forward, though he declined to offer any specifics.

"The debt ceiling of course, is something that we have to deal with. And it's something that we will look at over the next few weeks," he said.

Democrats clinched control of the Senate late on Saturday. It is still not clear which party will control the House.

Biden's Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has urged lawmakers to act before the new Congress is seated in January, with the nation's $31.4 trillion line of credit expected to be exhausted sometime in the first quarter of 2023.

The debt ceiling must be approved each time it needs to be raised in order to ensure that the United States avoids a default, which would have catastrophic effects.

The mechanism is meant to control the nation's rising debt, although it has been ineffective in recent decades.

Republicans have said the debt ceiling would be an "important tool" to rein in federal spending if they take control of the House.

Pelosi warned Republicans would use the debt fight to take aim at two popular health and income insurance programs for older Americans, Medicare and Social Security.

Pelosi and Chuck Schumer need to ditch the debt ceiling completely.  It's been done before, and it's frankly a 105-year-old relic. Move on.

Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

The home of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was broken into last night, and Pelosi's husband Paul was hospitalized after being brutally beaten with a hammer by the assailant.

 

Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was attacked and severely beaten by an assailant with a hammer who broke into their San Francisco home early Friday, according to people familiar with the investigation.

Pelosi, 82, suffered blunt force injuries to his head and body, according to two people who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing probe.

The attack was not random; the assailant specifically targeted the home, the people said. The assailant was in custody.

Pelosi was being treated by doctors for bruising, severe swelling and other injuries. Nancy Pelosi’s spokesman Drew Hammill said he was expected to make a full recovery.

“The Speaker and her family are grateful to the first responders and medical professionals involved, and request privacy at this time,” Hammill said in a statement.

While the circumstances of the attack are unclear, the attack raises questions about the safety of members of Congress and their families as threats to lawmakers are at an all-time high almost two years after the deadly Capitol insurrection. The attack also comes just 11 days ahead of midterm elections in which crime and public safety have emerged as top concerns among Americans.

 

Even if this somehow doesn't turn out to be a terrorist attack, and all the available evidence indicates that this was an assassination attempt on Nancy Pelosi's life,. it does call into question the safety of members of Congress. This wasn't protesting or even vandalizing property, this was felony assault on the spouse of the Speaker of the House.

 

We forget that a man walked up to Gabrielle Giffords at a campaign event and put a bullet in her skull, then attacked almost 20 others in 2011.

 

The message is clear: if Pelosi's family isn't safe, no Democratic lawmaker's family is.  And if Pelosi herself was there in her home, would she have been attacked, maybe killed just days before the midterms?

I warned this was coming. Expect a lot more of this in the days, weeks, and months ahead.

Ridin' With Biden, Con't

Despite my serious misgivings and a last-minute Kyrsten Sinema tantrum that almost sank the entire bill, Senate Democrats got it done on Sunday, passing the Inflation Reduction Act.

The Senate on Sunday passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) along party lines, 51-50, handing Democrats a crucial legislative win as the midterm cycle ramps up -- despite GOP objections at the billions in spending and drug pricing reforms.

The sprawling climate, tax and health care legislation is now set up for quick passage in the Democratic-controlled House, with timing still to be announced, before President Joe Biden signs it into law.

Included in the bill, supporters are quick to highlight, are measures to foster job creation, raise taxes on large corporations and the wealthy, allow Medicare to negotiate down some prescription drug costs, expand the Affordable Care Act health care program and invest in combating climate change by implementing tax credits for clean energy initiatives, among other things.

Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate with all Democrats in support of the legislation and all Republicans opposed. The proposal was passed via the budget reconciliation process, which requires a simple majority rather than the 60 votes typically needed to overcome a filibuster.

The rules of reconciliation, however, limit what can and cannot be passed with 51 votes -- strictures that narrowed the legislation's scope even in the final days before the vote.

The legislation's tax provisions, prescription drug-pricing reform, as well as boosted IRS tax enforcement measures, are anticipated to raise an estimated revenue of $739 billion -- $300 billion of which Democrats say would go toward reducing the deficit.

The plan would reduce federal budget deficits by $102 billion over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Despite the bill's name, however, the CBO found that it would have a minimal affect on high inflation in the short-term -- something Democrats have conceded when pressed.

The bill passed the Senate after a punishing, approximately 16-hour "vote-a-rama," in which any senator could introduce an amendment to the bill as part of the reconciliation process.

The amendment process fueled painful votes for each party.

Vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for reelection this year had to dance around a vote on the Biden administration's decision to scrap Title 42, a Trump-era order using coronavirus concerns to prevent migrants from entering the country while seeking asylum. Republicans, meanwhile, mostly voted against a Democratic amendment that would have capped out-of-pocket insulin costs at $35 a month for people with private health insurance.

 

These two things are not the same, but Both Sides Forever.

 

Seriously though, the bill passed the Senate.  Things still can go wrong in the House, but I'm feeling confident about Nancy Pelosi being able to line up the votes. 

Not a law until Biden signs it, but we're over the rough part.  For now.

Another Day In Gunmerica, Con't

President Biden gave a White House speech to the nation last night about gun safety legislation, but it almost certainly fell upon deaf ears.

In remarks from a candle-lined Cross Hall at the White House, Biden recalled his visits to the memorials of recent mass shootings in Uvalde, Texas, and Buffalo, New York. Fifty-six candles burned behind him to represent victims of gun violence in all US states and territories. 

"Standing there in that small town like so many other communities across America, I couldn't help but think there are too many other schools, too many other everyday places, that have become killing fields -- battlefields -- here in America," Biden said of his visit to Uvalde. 

He added, "For God's sake, how much more carnage are we willing to accept?" 

The remarks amount to Biden's most fulsome speech about guns since a massacre at a Texas elementary school last week. 

He said the recent spate of horrific mass shootings must impel the nation to take action to prevent further massacres by passing gun restrictions. 

After meeting families mourning their slain loved ones in Buffalo and Uvalde, Biden said the message from them was clear: "Do something." 

"Nothing has been done," Biden said. "This time that can't be true. This time we must actually do something." 

He issued a call to reinstate a ban on assault weapons that he said had helped prevent horrific murders but expired in 2004. 

'We should reinstate the assault weapons ban," Biden said, seeking a new prohibition on the types of high-capacity weapons used in the Uvalde and Buffalo shootings. 

Biden said that in the 10 years the law was in place, mass shootings decreased. 

"After Republicans let the law expire in 2004, those weapons were allowed to be sold again. Mass shootings tripled," the President said. 

He said the weapons inflicted gruesome damage on their victims, particularly children, and he used very vivid language to describe the shootings and their aftermath. 

"The damage is so devastating, and in Uvalde, parents had to do DNA swabs to identify the remains of their children, 9 and 10 years old," he said. 

In the little more than a week since the Uvalde shooting, a string of additional mass shootings have unfolded in states across the country, including in Tulsa on Wednesday. That shooting left five dead, including the gunman. 

It's the second time that Biden has delivered an emotional evening speech at the White House on mass shootings, also speaking in the wake of the Robb Elementary School assault. Since then, however, Biden has only selectively waded into the debate over gun control, stopping short of endorsing any specific legislative action to prevent further carnage. 

However, he broke with that trend on Thursday. Biden said the age to purchase assault weapons must be raised from 18 to 21 if lawmakers cannot agree on an outright ban on those firearms. 

"We must at least raise the age to be able to purchase one to 21," the President said.

 

It was a good speech, with Biden laying out specific legislation that he wants. Nancy Pelosi will be in the House taking up all of these measures in the days ahead.

The problem of course is that the legislation will never get past Mitch McConnell and the GOP, and there isn't one Republican voter who will suddenly have a change of heart and want to punish the GOP for blocking every single bit of this.

Not only will voters not punish the GOP for this in November, they will most likely reward them with control of the House and Senate assuring no gun safety legislation is even considered.

And so "never again!" will be "until the next time it happens and Republicans are rewarded for it."

Just another day in Gunmerica.

Ryan Versus The Hillbilly Hypocrite

 I've still not forgotten how Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan went after Nancy Pelosi with the intent of replacing her as Speaker and got his ass so thoroughly handed to him that he had to put out his palms to sit down.

But here we are in 2022 and Ohio's US Senate race is Ryan versus JD Vance, and Ryan wasted no time going after Hillbilly Hypocrite.

JD Vance doesn’t care about Ohioans and he thinks our country is a joke.

Now he wants to represent us in the Senate? You’ve got to be kidding. pic.twitter.com/UM7A5nL3al

— Tim Ryan (@TimRyan) May 4, 2022

 

Ryan it seems actually has learned his lesson, and remembers which team he actually works for. Vance is an absolute clown and this is a winnable seat for the Dems now. You'd better believe Trump will be all over this race, and that's exactly what Ryan needs in order to turn out voters to remind them of what the other side actually represents.

Oh yeah, and Roe v. Wade is dead and a number of other civil rights are going down, so suddenly flipping this Senate seat because an absolute priority.

Give to Ryan here.

 

 

 

 

The GOP Grift Never Stops, Con't

Six months ago I noted that Nebraska Congressman Jeff Fortenberry had been caught up in the illegal donation scandal involving Lebanese-Nigerian Billionaire Gilbert Chagoury, and his straw donations to several Republicans in 2020. Fortenberry went to trial this week, and now the hammer has come down on Fortenberry, as a jury took all of two hours to ring him up on all three charges.

History hit Jeff Fortenberry with a devastating blow Thursday.

A federal jury deliberated less than two hours before convicting the nine-term Nebraska congressman on one count of concealing conduit campaign contributions and two counts of lying to federal agents.

Fortenberry, a 61-year-old Republican, is the highest-ranking elected official to be convicted of a felony in Nebraska history.

Fortenberry betrayed little emotion as the verdict was read. After the guilty verdict was read on the concealment charge, Fortenberry closed his eyes and kept them closed for at least a minute.

His youngest daughter dropped her head into her hands and heaved. His oldest daughter doubled over in the courtroom gallery, her boyfriend comforting her.

Celeste Fortenberry, who had testified earlier Thursday, remained mostly stoic. She comforted her daughters, then her husband, cupping his face with her hands and giving her husband of 26 years a kiss.

U.S. District Judge Stanley Blumenfeld Jr. set sentencing for June 28. The congressman faces up to five years in prison on each count, although he could also receive supervised release.

Ironically, he does not have to give up his congressional seat. Federal law requires members of Congress to give up their seats only for crimes that are tied to treason.

It is unclear whether Fortenberry’s campaign will continue. He faces a Republican challenger in the May primary: State Sen. Mike Flood. Two Democrats, including State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks, are also vying for the seat.

Fortenberry’s staff, including his current chief of staff Andy Braner, sat outside a courtroom, stunned. Braner left the courthouse with his hands stuffed in his suit pockets.

Fortenberry exited the courtroom to a gaggle of about seven members of the Nebraska press corps.

“Thank you all for coming out here; this is important to Nebraska,” Fortenberry said. “We always thought it was going to be hard to get a fair process out here. This appeal starts immediately.”

Actually, any appeals typically would have to wait until after the June sentencing, although attorneys can ask for a new trial before then.

Fortenberry — the judge determined he was not a flight risk and allowed him to remain free pending sentencing — said his phone was buzzing off the hook. One of the texts: a note from one of his five daughters.

“She said ‘I love you Daddy, no matter what anyone else accuses you of,’” Fortenberry said. “Just remember so many other people do too.”

Asked if he would continue his campaign, Fortenberry said his family is going to sit down and evaluate next steps.

The jury of four men and eight women convicted the congressman after watching several tapes of him making incriminating statements.

The investigation ramped up when the FBI discovered that a Nigerian billionaire, Gilbert Chagoury, had been funneling cash into the campaigns of four Republican politicians: former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, current California Rep. Darrell Issa, former Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Fortenberry.

It is illegal for U.S. elected officials to accept foreign money.

 

You'd think that would be it, but as the article points out, being convicted of a felony is no guarantee of being expelled or even being voted out of office.  Remember, former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill resigned over a relationship with a staffer that happened before she was in office, and this guy is frankly going to get another term.

 

Why? Kevin McCarthy thinks he should resign, and nobody in the GOP cares about what he has to say anymore.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on Friday suggested Rep. Jeff Fortenberry should resign from Congress, hours after the Nebraska Republican was convicted of lying to the FBI over illegal campaign contributions.

“I think when someone’s convicted, it’s time to resign, ” McCarthy told reporters at a press conference on the final day of the House GOP retreat.

“I am going to discuss with him today. I think he had his day in court. I think if he wants to appeal he can do that as a private citizen,” McCarthy added, noting that he had texted Fortenberry late last night after the conviction.

Minutes after McCarthy’s remarks, Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued a more declarative statement on the matter, calling on Fortenberry to immediately resign.

“Congressman Fortenberry’s conviction represents a breach of the public trust and confidence in his ability to serve. No one is above the law,” she said.

But that's how Republicans work, Nancy. Laws only apply to Democrats and their voters.

I fully expect Fortenberry to simply walk this off.

Pelosi Plays Through

 House Speaker Nancy Pelosi isn't going anywhere in 2022 as she announced on Tuesday.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced Tuesday that she is running for reelection, citing the “crucial” need to defend American democracy through legislation on voting rights and other issues.

Pelosi, 81, has served in Congress since 1987.

“While we have made progress, much more needs to be done to improve people’s lives,” Pelosi said in a video posted to her Twitter feed. “Our democracy is at risk because of assaults on the truth, the assault on the U.S. Capitol, and the state-by-state assault on voting rights. This election is crucial. Nothing less is at stake than our democracy.”

She added: “But as we say, we don’t agonize, we organize. And that is why I am running for reelection to Congress and respectfully seek your support. I would be greatly honored by it and grateful for it.”

Pelosi has led House Democrats for 19 years through the presidencies of George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now President Biden. She was instrumental in ensuring the passage of the Affordable Care Act during Obama’s tenure; Democrats’ focus on preserving the law helped the party reclaim the House majority in 2018.

In 2018, Pelosi said this term would be her last as speaker, but she made no mention of her plans in the announcement Tuesday.

Pelosi, the first woman to be elected House speaker, has managed to unite the moderate and liberal factions in her party to pass legislation, while previous speakers — most notably John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) — often struggled with the fractious GOP.

In her video Tuesday, Pelosi spoke directly to the camera, with the San Francisco skyline behind her. She thanked her constituents for “giving me the privilege to represent our city and our San Francisco values in the Congress — human rights, reproductive justice, LGBTQ equality, respect for immigrants and care for each other.”

“When people ask me what are the three most important issues facing the Congress, I always say the same thing: Our children, our children, our children,” she added.

Her reelection announcement was expected, but it remains to be seen whether she will remain the Democratic leader after the current Congress.

“The Speaker is not on a shift, she’s on a mission,” Pelosi’s spokesman, Drew Hammill, said in an email when asked whether Pelosi plans to run again for speaker or minority leader.

 

I really don't understand the raging hatred against Pelosi. She's been the most effective House Speaker of my lifetime, easily, outlasting a clown car full of Republicans. The damn House office building should be named after her for crying out loud. Dems have been lucky to have her.

 

Compare her to Boehner or Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, all bumbling oafs by comparison. Pelosi beat them time after time and in McCarthy's case still is. 

Let her keep the job.

It's Still Nancy's World, You're Just In It

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may stay on after 2022 elections after all, in what should be a surprise to nobody, as she's been the most effective House Speaker (of either party) and House Democratic leader in general for decades.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi will stay until at least after the midterm elections, extending her nearly 20-year run as the House's top Democrat after she turns 82 and, perhaps, beyond. 

She is planning to file and run for reelection in her San Francisco district next year -- at least for now -- in keeping with her pattern of deciding about staying in Congress after the elections, when she likely will have won an 18th full term. 

And sources familiar with Pelosi's thinking say she isn't ruling out the possibility of trying to stay in leadership after 2022, despite her original vow to leave as the top House Democrat. She'll devote much of next year to raising money for Democrats as they try to hold their narrow majority, those sources tell CNN, adding to the nearly $1 billion her office calculates she has already raised for Democrats in her time as leader. 

The months of tortuous negotiations over President Joe Biden's legislative initiatives are inspiring a contradictory mix of emotions. Many House Democrats are more eager than ever to see the California Democrat go and give way to younger leadership. But even many of those same lawmakers are terrified that, without her, they will be consumed by squabbling instead of fighting back against House Republicans at a moment when the fundamentals of American democracy appear to be on the line. 

"Where do we go from here?" one member said, expressing the stress. "I don't know." 

In a series of interviews with key aides and more than two dozen House Democratic members -- across age, ideology and geography, and including Pelosi supporters and critics alike -- a portrait emerges of a leader who still commands respect, and no small measure of fear, within her caucus. (Many of those members requested anonymity to speak frankly with CNN and did not want to anger Pelosi or be seen feeding a narrative about Democratic infighting.) She shepherded Biden's Covid-19 rescue plan last spring and his massive infrastructure plan this fall, and then delivered the most transformative social spending program in generations through her chamber. Each one could be a capstone to an already historic career. 

For all the critics, I have to say, who do you think should replace her right now, or in 2023?  Steny Hoyer, maybe, but that's about it. Those who have tried have failed to make the case to the caucus that she should go.

Pelosi is still the best at her job, and I don't understand the hate.

Last Call For Building Back Better, Con't

A new NPR/Marist poll finds that a majority of Americans approve of the Democrats' accomplishments in 2021, namely the infrastructure bill (56%), the stimulus checks (80% of the 62% of Americans who say they got them), and the child tax credit payments of $300 per month (79% of the 59% of Americans who are parents of kids under 18).

The bad news is that Biden's Build Back Better plan has only 41% support, with a full 25% unsure of what's even in the plan at all, with 61% of Americans saying the country is headed in the wrong direction (88% of Republicans and two-thirds of independents). NPR seems to think the problems are inflation and bad messaging.

Americans don't feel the direct payments or expanded child tax credits doled out earlier this year helped them much, according to the latest NPR/Marist poll, and they don't see Democrats' signature legislation as addressing their top economic concern — inflation.

Additionally, they're down on the job President Biden is doing, don't give him much credit for the direct payments or tax credits, and have soured on the direction of the country.

The results, out Thursday, come as Democrats prepare a nationwide push to sell voters on their policies ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, when the party will defend its slim majorities in both the House and the Senate.

Americans do mostly endorse the new infrastructure law but are less supportive of Democrats' Build Back Better bill that has passed the House. And while that legislation would expand the social safety net, survey respondents weren't convinced that it would help people like them.

"They [Democrats] don't have a unified message for what they're doing, and that does not bode well for the party," said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist Poll.

 

It certainly doesn't help when all of NPR's coverage of Democrats is either "Manchin and Sinema are against the Biden bill", "Vice President Harris is a weird loser who would lose to Mayor Pete" or  "Nancy Pelosi has lost control".

Just saying.

The Gavel Crashes Down Once More

Late last night, the five members of The Squad, plus Brooklyn Rep. Jamaal Bowman, called Nancy Pelosi's bluff on passing the Senate infrastructure bill in the House. With their five no votes, the Senate bill could not pass on Democratic votes alone. They thought they had finally beaten her.

And then a baker's dozen House Republicans voted for the bill.

The House on Friday passed the biggest U.S. infrastructure package in decades, marking a victory for President Joe Biden and unleashing $550 billion of fresh spending on roads, bridges, public transit and other projects in coming years.

The vote was 228-206 and sends the legislation to Biden for his signature. It capped a day in which Speaker Nancy Pelosi was forced to deal with a last-minute standoff between party progressives and moderates that took hours of intense negotiations and the president’s intervention to resolve.

Pelosi and Biden, however, were unable to land a House vote at the same time on a more than $1.75 trillion tax and spending package that makes up much of the rest of Biden’s domestic agenda. The House instead is set to approve a procedural measure teeing up a vote after lawmakers return from next week’s break and the Congressional Budget Office delivers a cost analysis.

That was a last-minute concession to a small group of moderates who refused to vote for the spending package without the CBO score. Progressives also made a concession by supporting the infrastructure legislation before a vote on the larger spending package.

“I’ve spoken to the president a number of times today and the president appreciates that we are working in good faith with our colleagues agreement,” Representative Pramila Jayapal, head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in a statement. “We’re going to trust each other because the Democratic Party is together on this, we are united that it is important for us to get both bills done.”

Sure, it was all kabuki, Pelosi allowed the Squad to have their purity tantrum and demonstrated to everyone by getting thirteen Republican votes that the bill's passage was preordained. Despite the drama the bipartisan bill passed and Pelosi had a dozen plus Republicans help her, just as more than a dozen Republican senators helped Chuck Schumer 3 months ago.

In the end, never bet against Pelosi when her chips are in and the vote is on. That's the good news. the bipartisan bill is headed for Biden's desk this weekend.

Now the bad news.

The thing is that there's a higher stakes game the next table over in two weeks, the Build Back Better plan. President Manchin has all the chips in that pot. He can trash the game and the Biden plan now...

...but if he does, he's the villain. Is he really okay with that? Is Sinema?

We'll see.

The Manchin On The Hill, Con't

President Joe Biden Manchin has decreed that we will not have a House vote today on the infrastructure bills, or soon, or maybe at all.

Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) on Monday called on Democrats to slow down in their work to advance a $1.75 trillion plan to overhaul the country’s health care, education, climate and tax laws, raising new doubts about the party’s timeline to advance a critical piece of President Biden’s economic agenda as soon as this week.

Speaking to reporters, Manchin lamented some of the “social” spending in the still-forming package, the means by which Democrats have crafted it, and the potential that it could add to the deficit while spurring new inflation. He called for more time to evaluate its broader fiscal effects.

“I will not support a bill that is this consequential without thoroughly understanding the impact it will have on our national debt, our economy and the American people,” Manchin said. “Every elected representative needs to know what they are voting for and the impact it has, not only on their constituents, but the entire country.”

“I’m open to supporting a final bill that helps move our country forward,” the senator added. “But I’m equally open to voting against a bill that hurts our country.”

In making his remarks, Manchin also rebuked liberal House Democrats who have refused to vote on a parallel measure to improve the nation’s roads, bridges, pipes, ports and Internet connections. These left-leaning lawmakers, represented by the powerful Congressional Progressive Caucus, have held up the infrastructure plan in the hopes of securing Manchin’s firm commitment on their other spending priorities — a strategy that the senator chastised on Monday.

“Holding this bill hostage is not going to work,” he said, urging an immediate vote on the $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan.

Manchin’s statement immediately generated new uncertainty about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan to hold a vote this week on both of Biden’s long-sought economic packages. Liberal lawmakers have held firm in insisting that the chamber must vote on both bills in tandem, a position that some maintained despite the senator’s stern criticism.

“We intend to pass both bills in the next couple of days,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said during an interview Monday on CNN.

Reacting to Manchin’s allegation that liberals had held the infrastructure bill “hostage,” Jayapal dismissed the critiques, urged lawmakers to “keep tempers down” and stressed that Democrats should trust that the president can ultimately deliver the 51 votes necessary to pass it in the Senate.

“Pramila Jayapal is right,” Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, added in a tweet shortly after her interview ended on CNN. “Let’s vote these two bills out of the House this week.”

The White House, meanwhile, saw in Manchin’s comments a cause for optimism. In her own statement, press secretary Jen Psaki said that the $1.75 trillion bill meets the senator’s criteria to combat inflation, create jobs and cover its costs in full.

“As a result, we remain confident that the plan will gain Senator Manchin’s support,” Psaki said.

 

Manchin cutting off the Biden administration, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer by holding this press conference on Monday is a clear sign that he continues to hold all the leverage.  Rep. Jayapal and the House progressive caucus are already signaling that they will no longer hold the Senate bipartisan bill up, and that they recognize Manchin has all of the power here because unlike Jayapal, he's ready to destroy both bills.

People keep forgetting this. Manchin has the motive, the means, and the opportunity to commit a double homicide here and he's said at every opportunity that he will pull the trigger.

Biden is trying to ignore him, Jayapal is trying to go around him, but any solution is going to have to go through him.

That's just the damn truth. And should Jayapal and Pelosi relent and the House vote on the Senate plan get wrecked a third time and delayed once again, I don't think any of it's going to pass.

At all.

Last Call ForThe Good Package, Con't

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are going back to the drawing board, or back to the mattresses, depending on how you look at the fact that the House vote of the God Package has been delayed until Halloween.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Saturday set a new deadline of Oct. 31 for the House to pass the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.

In a "Dear Colleague" letter released on Saturday, Pelosi said that “more time was needed” to pass the infrastructure bill along with the larger, $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package after scrambling over the past two days to get enough votes.

The Speaker said she wants to pass the bipartisan bill by Oct. 31, when the 30-day reauthorization of federal highway programs expires. The House passed the extension Friday night amid the Democratic infighting over infrastructure.

“There is an October 31st Surface Transportation Authorization deadline, after last night’s passage of a critical 30-day extension,” Pelosi wrote. “We must pass BIF [bipartisan infrastructure framework] well before then – the sooner the better, to get the jobs out there.”

House Democrats tried to break an impasse between moderates and progressives on the bipartisan infrastructure package after progressives threatened to sink it if the larger “human infrastructure” bill would not pass via budget reconciliation.

President Biden visited Democrats on Friday seeking to ease tensions between the two factions, during which he told moderates that the vote would not happen that day. However, he also called for the liberal wing of the party to be willing to compromise.

Both bills are critical to realizing Biden's domestic agenda.

 

Vice-President Kyrsten Sinema smells blood in the water after she called Nancy Pelosi's cards earlier this week and got her to pull the vote.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on Saturday slammed the decision to delay a vote this week on the bipartisan infrastructure deal that she helped negotiate, calling it “inexcusable.”

Good-faith negotiations, the Arizona centrist argued, "require trust."

"Over the course of this year, Democratic leaders have made conflicting promises that could not all be kept — and have, at times, pretended that differences of opinion within our party did not exist, even when those disagreements were repeatedly made clear directly and publicly," Sinema said in a statement.

“Canceling the infrastructure vote further erodes that trust. More importantly, it betrays the trust the American people have placed in their elected leaders and denies our country crucial investments to expand economic opportunities,” Sinema continued.

 

Sinema clearly believes she has won this fight. Time will tell if she actually has won or not. The biggest loser is Rep Pramila Jayapal and her progressive caucus in the House. Sinema beat all of them with one manicured hand tied behind her back. 

Like Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe did during the Obama stimulus fight, the "moderates" know they hold 100% of the power, the leverage, and the votes.

What passes will only be what Sinema and Manchin allow, and it was never going to be any different.

 

Time For Dems To Burn It All Down

With the House vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Good Package scheduled for tomorrow, Josh Marshall says that House Democrats should be prepared to kill the bipartisan bill and force the Good Package through.

Back in 2004 and 2005, President Bush tried to partially abolish Social Security. There was huge pressure on Democrats to negotiate, to put up a counter-proposal, to get involved in the process to limit the damage. At the time, Republicans had unified control of the federal government. They could do the thing if they wanted to. Democrats finally settled on the right approach which was: no. No negotiations. No support. No nothing. Democrats couldn’t control the outcome. But they could clarify what was happening. Democrats support Social Security. Republicans want to abolish it.

In the event, Bush’s plan collapsed. Democrats were ready to lose well and that helped them win.

But it’s worth thinking through the alternative scenario. What if Bush had in fact abolished most of Social Security. That would have been a policy disaster for hundreds of millions of Americans. But if the Democrats had been part of it it would have been disastrous for them as a party. The cases are very different but there are some similarities to now. If the upshot of the Biden presidency is that Democrats delivered the votes for Kyrsten Sinema’s infrastructure bill vanity project and got nothing else it will be profoundly self-discrediting for the Democratic party in addition to being a disaster for the climate future and much else. Democrats and the White House need to be ready to kill the infrastructure bill.

It is perverse and bizarre since the Democrats, though tenuously, now have unified control of the government rather than being a beleaguered opposition with no holds on any levers of power. How we’ve gotten to the point that they cannot collectively control the outcome … well, that’s crazy. But that’s where we are. Largely because of Kyrsten Sinema. But look at what we’re talking about here. Is the reward for her betrayal having the party she is betraying passing her infrastructure bill? That’s too crazy to allow to happen. It is a basic element of life for individuals that we must strive to confront with dignity things we cannot control. It shapes who we are. And something similar applies to political coalitions and parties.

Now there are potentially lots of ways to skin this cat. Maybe the House passes the bill but Speaker Pelosi declines to send it to the President until there’s movement on the reconciliation bill. Or the President would hold it for a week himself. As has been the case throughout this maddening year there are just too many factors that aren’t visible to us. Democrats will have to rely on Nancy Pelosi and others make good decisions based on knowledge of details they cannot share. But to the extent we can be clear on goals, to the extent we must shape transitory tactics with a clear understanding of where we want to end up, a final outcome that is an infrastructure bill and nothing else is just not tenable. It leaves too many critical priorities unaddressed – especially climate – and makes a mockery of the whole Democratic coalition.

If it’s the BIF and nothing else, kill the BIF. 

 

On the Senate side, Greg Sargent argues that Democrats need to put a permanent end to the debt ceiling nonsense as well.

Democrats appear likely to opt for Plan B, which is to raise the debt limit in the reconciliation process. But if so, they have another option: They can try to use reconciliation to effectively nullify the debt limit, which if it works would end this nonsense for good.

What just happened makes this option newly relevant. Indeed, what Democrats themselves are thinking about what just happened forcefully argues for giving this option serious consideration.

Punchbowl News reports that Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Democrats are steamed because McConnell is forcing them to raise the debt limit, which is all you can do in reconciliation, rather than suspend it, which is politically easier:

Schumer and his fellow Senate Democrats remain furious about McConnell’s handling of this issue, although there doesn’t seem to be much they can do about it. Yet it’s impossible to overstate the level of frustration among Democrats right now. Democrats say McConnell is cynically using this issue to force Democrats up in 2022, such as Sens. Maggie Hassan (N.H.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.), to vote for a debt-limit increase.

But if this is a problem, then there is something that can be done about it. David Super, a law professor at Georgetown, has suggested that Democrats use reconciliation to tie the size of the debt limit to whatever is necessary to cover the national debt at any given moment.

Before, Democrats had an understandable reason for refraining from this. They didn’t want to use reconciliation to deal with the debt limit at all, because it will complicate passing their multitrillion-dollar social policy bill.

But now, if Democrats may have to use reconciliation on the debt limit anyway, why not consider using the process to nullify it?

Dems are terrified. The last time they moved on a big stimulus package and big social plan, they were butchered in Congress and in states, leading to the current Midwestern realignment towards the GOP. States Obama won in 2008 like Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and came close in like Missouri and Kansas are now blood red, along with thousands of state legislature seats. Democratic state parties were wiped out of a dozen states, on a semi-permanent basis.

But Obamacare was the right thing to do. It could have been far better.

This time around, the compromise option is a loser. If Dems wait around for the rules to line up correctly and proceed with a timid, minimal response, then yes, they will lose 40, maybe 60 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats.  Maybe more. That's a guarantee.

But if they kill the debt ceiling garbage fire and pass the Good Package, well...

They just might pull it off.

The Good Package, Con't

President Biden Manchin and Vice-President Harris Sinema will meet separately with former US Senator Joe Biden today to discuss what the people will be allowed to have going forward.

 

Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are expected to meet with President Biden at the White House on Tuesday as administration officials and congressional Democrats seek a path forward on the president's economic agenda.

The two senators will meet with Biden separately, a source familiar with the plans said. Manchin and an aide confirmed the West Virginia senator would head to the White House later Tuesday.

The meetings mark the third time in as many weeks the two key centrist Democrats will visit the White House to discuss Biden's agenda. Both Sinema and Manchin have raised concerns about the size of a proposed $3.5 trillion spending package put forward by Biden and other Democrats.

But the two have frustrated progressives, in particular, as they have largely stopped short of articulating what specifically they want to see in the reconciliation package, which Democrats hope to pass without Republican support. Sinema gave an interview to an Arizona news outlet in which she talked about the urgent need to address climate change.

Manchin, meanwhile, threw cold water on the prospects of getting the reconciliation bill done in time for a planned Thursday House vote on a bipartisan infrastructure bill that already passed the Senate.

Democratic leaders are seeking to thread the needle between satisfying moderates, who want to see the bipartisan infrastructure bill pass the House as soon as possible, and appeasing progressives, who want to see the party prioritize the sweeping reconciliation package that includes funding for child care, health care and climate initiatives.

 

Manchin keeps shitting on everything but won't say what he does actually want, and Sinema does the same, only with a healthy dose of Manic Pixie Dream Senator.  Both are racking up the fundraising from corporations and lobbyists opposed to actually having to pay taxes, with Sinema practically salivating over the prospect of becoming a major K Street player herself after she's booted from her office.

Meanwhile the prospects of any infrastructure package passing is becoming dimmer every hour. Republicans aren't going to allow anything to pass, and the Dems are going to have to attach the debt limit suspension bill to the Good Package too.

All that has to happen in the next few days or the economy crashes, and everyone's juggling chainsaws.