Great Expectations

Steve M. notes that Rasmussen's latest Virginia gubernatorial poll finds Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a huge 17-point lead (double the lead seen in other recent polls) over GOP Tea Party favorite Ken "Your Cooch" Cuccinelli, and wonders if Rasmussen isn't inflating the numbers on purpose.

Maybe this race really is turning into a blowout -- but I have to wonder whether Rasmussen, seeing that McAuliffe is solidly but not overwhelmingly ahead, is exaggerating the Democrat's lead in the hope that a single-digit McAuliffe victory will now be interpreted as McAuliffe falling short of expectations. 

I don't have to remind you that Republicans sneeringly discounted the 2012 polls that showed President Obama leading, claimed that these polls were skewed, then cooked up a lot of excuses for the Obama victory -- Dick Morris said it was because of Sandy, Karl Rove said it was an act of voter suppression for Obama to say negative things about his opponent.In any case, Republicans didn't accept that Obama really won.

The creative interpretation of electoral results by Republicans continues -- Cory Booker, we're told, kinda-sorta lost his Senate race in New Jersey because his victory margin over Steve Lonegan was in the low double digits, and now Lonegan says the government shutdown, which he supported, cost him the election.

The fact that this makes sense to me, and that I wouldn't put it past Rasmussen to do this, sums up everything you need to know about the organization's accuracy and partisanship.  After all, this is the joint that has decided that the only thing that matters with Obama's approval ratings is not the totals (latest numbers have him up 50-49%) but the percentage of people with strong opinions about him:

The latest figures include 25% of all likely voters who Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president and 38% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13.

So yes, Rasmussen goes out of their way to make Democrats look as bad as possible as they've been pulling this "Presidential Approval Index" crap for years now.  Should McAuliffe not win by 17, as with Booker, Republicans will then say that the failure of a blowout is proof that the shutdown really isn't hurting them, and that they are performing far better than expected.  The real story, by the way, is the fact that Obama's approval numbers have been hanging around the 45-50% mark since the 2010 election.

There's a reason I call Rasmussen's entirely invented number the "Obama Derangement Index".

Skewed, Screwed, And Tattooed

If we're to believe the likely voter model for the latest USA/Today Gallup poll, then Mitt Romney will win in a cakewalk.

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

If that's true, Obama's dead.  Gone.  Toast.  Tied among women and a 12 point edge among men pretty much equals a Romney win equivalent to Obama's margin over John McCain in 2008.

The Obama camp doesn't buy it for a second.

"In the last election, Gallup's registered voter model — not its likely voter model — was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," Benenson says. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women."

Among all registered voters in the survey, Obama leads by nine points among women and by two points overall, 49%-47%. 

So, Gallup's likely voter model is skewed toward Mitt Romney here by seven to nine points overall, which is the equivalent of 14-18 points with women voters.  If you believe that's how this election will play out, then yes, he'll win and win handily.

But that's ignoring the fact that Gallup's likely voter model was a disaster 2 years ago.  It looks to be equally disastrous now.

Your Tainted Love Of Polls

As I mentioned last night on Twitter, Team Romney is furious with this week's Washington Post/ABC poll, because it dares to show President Obama might actually win.

Mitt Romney’s campaign is publicly arguing that the methodology of a WaPo/ABC poll tainted its finding that his national numbers are tanking. However, polling experts who talked to TPM say that the survey is in line with a broad set of evidence that Romney’s general election appeal is declining — even if the poll’s approach is less than ideal.

The poll in question couldn’t have looked much worse for Romney’s presidential hopes. While it indicated he was still strong in the primary, his national numbers showed a rapid fall with Obama leading him 51-45 among registered voters. Romney pollster Neil Newhouse says these top line numbers should be disregarded because the question came after a series of queries referencing various recent stories surrounding Romney, including whether voters think his wealth is a positive or negative, whether they think he did more to create or cut jobs at Bain Capital, whether they feel his 14% tax rate is fair, and whether his Mormon religion affects their views of his candidacy.

“The poll introduced specific negative information about Governor Romney immediately prior to asking the ballot match-up against President Obama,” Newhouse wrote. “While I certainly understand the difficulty of designing a questionnaire to learn as much information as possible about a campaign, and the compromises that sometimes have to be made, the questionnaire design used by the Post/ABC Poll in this case is seriously flawed.”

Only one problem:  the right's favorite pollster, Scott Rasmussen, says President Obama will most likely be re-elected.

Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports predicted on Monday that President Barack Obama would win the 2012 election if the economy continued to improve.

The latest Rasmussen poll showed Obama with a 7 point lead over the Republican frontrunner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

“The trends are moving in President Obama’s direction,” Rasmussen said during an appearance on Fox Business. “Consumer confidence this morning is at the highest level in more than a year, and by the way it is getting near the highest level of the past four years. A plurality of investors now think the economy is getting better.”

Folks, if even Rasmussen is finding that President Obama has a lead over Romney, the argument that "polls are all biased if I'm losing!" is not only stupid, but delusional.   It's pretty clear that Team Romney is not going to be able to handle the general election with anything approaching competence.

Picking A Fight With Rasmussen's House Effect

I've been talking about Rasmussen's "house effect", how every poll they have seems to favor the Republicans, no matter what the situation, for quite some time now.  Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight has cataloged this effect as well, but the outfit's been able to defend itself by using a likely voter model rather than polling all adults.

But there is one poll where Rasmussen has consistently polled all adults rather than defaulting to its likely voter model, on the issue of party affiliation.  And that shows Rasmussen's clear bias towards the Republicans.  Nate Silver explains:

The argument goes like this: those people who vote most reliably in midterm elections tend to be older, whiter, and to have higher social status -- which are also characteristics of voters that generally lean toward the Republican candidate. When coupled with what also appears to be a Republican enthusiasm advantage this cycle, it is quite reasonable to believe that a poll of likely voters (like Rasmussen's) should show more favorable results for the Republicans than one of registered voters or adults (like most others).

This argument is completely true, insofar as it goes. But it is not sufficient to explain the bulk of the Rasmussen house effect, particularly given that Rasmussen uses a "fairly loose screening process" to select likely voters.

In fact, this is quite readily apparent. Although Rasmussen rarely reveals results for its entire adult sample, rather than that of likely voters, there is one notable exception: its monthly tracking of partisan identification, for which it publishes its results among all adults. Since Labor Day, Rasmussen polls have shown Democrats with a 3.7-point identification advantage among all adults, on average. This is the smallest margin for the Democrats among any of 16 pollsters who have published results on this question, who instead show a Democratic advantage ranging from 5.2 to 13.0 points, with an average of 9.6.



To be clear, the partisan identification advantage among registered or likely voters is much smaller. A 3- or 4- point gap would be quite normal there. When making an apples-to-apples comparison to other polls of all adults, however, it is something of an outlier and would reflect a house effect of about 6 points when measuring the net difference between Democratic and Republican preferences.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of pollsters have begun to publish results among likely voters in their take on the Congressional generic ballot. Six pollsters apart from Rasmussen, in fact (these are GWU, Bloomberg, NPR, Democray Corps, OnMessage and McLaughlin) have done so since December. They show the Republicans leading the generic ballot by an average of 2.8 points among likely voters, on average (if explicitly partisan-affiliated polls are included, the margin is similar at R +3.3). This is a potentially excellent result for them -- one which might imply a massive, 50+ seat swing in the House, but is less than the 9-point advantage that Rasmussen now shows, and has shown consistently throughout this period.



Note that the house effect here, again, is about 6 points (the difference between the R+9 that Rasmussen shows and the R+3 that the other likely voter polls do). This is of the same magnitude of the 6-point house effect that was introduced in their construction of the all-adult sample, as described above. In other words, Rasmussen does not appear to be applying an especially stringent likely voter model. Instead, the house effect is endemic to their overall sample construction and is "passed through" to their likely voter sample.

In other words, Rasmussen is stone cold busted.  Just about any Rasmussen poll has to be taken with a six point or more bias towards the Republican position.  The numbers just don't lie, they strongly, strongly favor the Republicans in everything they do.

There's a reason why Republicans are constantly quoting Rasmussen polls as proof the Democrats are doomed.  Nate's got them dead to rights, and the numbers prove it.

As far as I'm concerned, Rasmussen is a GOP polling outfit.

Your ODI Update

Rasmussen has Obama at -15, Pollster.com's average is +1.9%, our ODI is now back down to where it's been for quite some time, in the upper teens. 16.9%.

Meanwhile, Gallup shows Obama at 53%-40%, his best numbers since Turkey Day and six points up from his late January nadir.

The Question Time Bounce

Obama's rise in Rasmussen's ODI continues as his rating there is up to only -4.  Pollster.com also shows him at -1.5, meaning the ODI is almost approaching parity...I repeat...ALMOST APPROACHING PARITY.

My my my.

Obama Picks Up Ten Points In Two Days At Rasmussen

President Obama has picked up ten points in two days in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll, going from -17 on Friday to -7 today, his best Rasmussen number since November 7th.

This is the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted since the State-of-the-Union Address and it reflects a bounce for the President. The number who Strongly Approve is the highest in more than four months (since September) and the overall Approval Index rating is the best in more than three months (since October).

The bounce comes almost entirely from those in the president’s party. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats now Strongly Approve, up from 50% before the speech. However, the speech appears to have had the opposite impact on unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 50% now Strongly Disapprove. That’s up from 42% before the speech. The next few days should give an indication as to whether these changes will fade or if they signify the beginning of a new phase in the political environment. 

We'll see if this trend continues.  Right now that -7 is actually pretty damn close to Pollster.com's -2.5% bringing the ODI down to the lowest number I can remember seeing it at, -4.5%.  Still, as you can see, Rasmussen's doing everything they can to spin this as far down the GOP lanes as they can.

I will be very, very interested to see what effect Friday's Question Time had on the polls by mid-week.

Last Call

Well whaddya know.  Looks like the Powers That Be have decided that Rasmussen's constantly outlying poll numbers are now A Story Of Some Measure.  Oh, but this is Politico, you see...so the story is "How the mean Democrats pick on Scott Rasmussen's polling firm."

“I don’t think there are Republican polling firms that get as good a result as Rasmussen does,” said Eric Boehlert, a senior fellow with Media Matters, a progressive research center. “His data looks like it all comes out of the RNC [Republican National Committee].”

“Whether intended or not, Rasmussen polls have been used by conservative voices as talking points, and when that happens on one side it inevitably produces a reaction from the other,” explained Mark Blumenthal, a polling analyst and the editor and publisher of Pollster.com. “Rasmussen produces a lot of data that appear to produce narratives conservatives are promoting, and that causes a reaction.”

Now I've been complaining about Rasmussen's polls for months now.  It's not just his oddball "likely voter" samples, either...that skews the respondents heavily towards older white voters who have voted before and heavily under-samples minority and young voters.  Scott Rasmussen himself freely admits this.   Rasmussen's questions are heavily suggestive too.

(More after the jump...)

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

You have to ask yourself why our "liberal media" is running a story on a President with a 90% plus approval rating among African-Americans where the central tenet of the story is this:

But when asked how they personally feel about Obama's presidency, only 42 percent of black respondents say they're thrilled, with nearly half of those questioned saying they are happy but not thrilled.

The 42 percent who are thrilled is down from 61 percent in January, when Obama was inaugurated.

"African-Americans are still big fans of the first black president in U.S. history, but the thrill is gone," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Really.  The thrill is gone.  Not even 90% plus is good enough if you're Obama.  His approval ratings are slipping!  Even black people are starting to turn on him!

You realize what CNN's done here...substitute "thrilled" with "strongly approve" and you have a Rasmussen presidential daily tracking poll.  Obama's numbers among blacks down 19 points since January!

Honestly.  I weep for this country.

Epic Wingers Fail At Math Fail

I'd almost pay Nate Silver to teach Wingnuts how to read polls correctly.  Jim "Gateway Pundit" Hoft gleefully declares that Obama now has worse numbers than Bush did when he left office eleven months ago and that the Kenyan Usurper is "more loathed".

Now, what polling outfit would Jimbo there be able to pull that number from?  I'll give you three guesses, and the first five don't count.  Yep, our old ODI friends at Rasmussen had Dubya's "Strong Disapproval" numbers at 43%, while the same question for Rasmussen's "fair and balanced" poll shows Obama at 46% on Tuesday who Strongly Disapprove of the Other in the White House.  This is proof America hates Obama more than Bush to Jim there, and that Obama is the Worst Person on Earth.

Well, before you fire up the pitchforks and chainsaws, note that Bush's Rasmussen number was a whopping -30, still 8 points ahead of Obama's worst day in Rasmussen's deranged Obama landscape, and Obama's average at RCP is still 49.7%  with a +4.8 spread, while Rasmussen has him at negative 10.

When your approval poll is almost a full 15 points off the average, your poll is useless.  Even the more grueling and thorough Pollster.com average finds Obama at 48.0% to 46.7%, a slight positive spread where Rasmussen is off the charts.

The ODI for Tuesday would then be a massive -23.3%, a number so far off the scope of reality as to prove Rasmussen's numbers useless.  Naturally, the Wingers are grasping at generalized pictures of straws miles out of reach to prove their Obama Derangement Syndrome issues...but that's why they EPIC FAIL time and time again.

Your ODI Update

Rasmussen's latest imaginary "We Hate Obama" number is at a record low -19, while Pollster.com's average is at +2.4%, giving a brand new record high ODI of -21.4%.

It's starting to get bad out there for Obama on health care. His approval rating average on Pollster.com is down to 52.3% against, only 40.8% in favor. Congress is killing his numbers on this, ever since the House passed their version with the Stupak Amendment, the numbers have gone belly up.

Your ODI Update

Rasmussen's arbitrary We Hate Obama number is at -11, but for the first time, Obama's Pollster.com average has his disapproval higher than his approval at 47.8%,  bringing the ODI down a bit to -9.2.

Amazingly enough, this is the closest to zero the ODI has been pretty much since inception.

The Method To Rasmussen's Madness

Now, I give Rasmussen a hard time, I think their Presidential approval number polls are heavily skewed against Obama.  The fact they are so far off from the majority of other polls has begun to bother them somewhat (not to mention being constantly called out on it) but as TPMDC's Eric Kleefield points out, even Rasmussen's curious as to why.

Rasmussen has released a new set of polls illustrating how the exact questioning of a poll can subtly affect the answers -- and perhaps explaining why their own daily survey puts President Obama's approval lower than nearly everyone else.
Respondents were asked their approval of Obama using Rasmussen's usual format: Do they strongly approve, somewhat approval, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove? The answer here is 47% approval, with 28% strongly approving, to 52% disapproval, including 41% who strongly disapprove.

However, Rasmussen got a different result when they asked the question as a simple "approve" or "disapprove." Obama then enters positive territory at 50% approval, 46% disapproval -- in line with a lot of other polls, such as the Gallup survey.

Now that's quite curious...but as I keep mentioning, Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index ignores everyone who doesn't have a strong opinion either way.  It's completely the strongly approve versus the strongly disapprove, and that has had Obama deeply in the negatives for basically all of his Presidency so far.
I've called this discrepancy the ODI -- the Obama Derangement Index.  I've been tracking it since late July, and this set of Rasmussen polls shows what I've been saying for months now:  Rasmussen goes out of its way to make Obama look bad.

Indeed, 50% to 46% gives Obama a +4 in Rasmussen's book, but using their method, he's at -13.  There's something lousy going on there.

Your ODI Update

Rasmussen's Made Up Presidential Number is -14, and Pollster.com's reality-based average is 55.7%, meaning we've got a new record ODI low: -19.7%.

Suddenly that poll yesterday showing 52% of Republicans thinking ACORN stole nearly 10 million votes across America to give Obama the win and another 21% going "Yeah, ACORN's probably that powerful!" makes a lot more sense now, doesn't it?

(9% of Democrats thought Obama stole the election too, according to that poll. Hi PUMAs! How are you?)

Your ODI Update

Rasmussen's number is -10, Pollster.com's Favorable average for Obama is at 56.4%, meaning your ODI is - 16.4% today.

Just so you know.

ODI Watch: Halloween Edition

Rasmussen's "Presidential Approval Index" is -10, while Pollster.com's Obama approval rating average back in reality is 56.1%, giving us an ODI number of -16.1. Not quite as bad as last week, but then again that's the scary part.

Time To Check The ODI Again

It's time to check the Obama Derangement Index, i.e. how far off Rasmussen's "approval index" is from reality.

Today's Rasmussen numbers are -12, and the Pollster.com average for today is 55.8%, meaning that we're at an impressive ODI number of -17.8%, which is pretty much a new record.

Last Call Plus

Your ODI number with Rasmussen's "approval index" at - 14 and the Pollster.com average at 50.2% is now a whopping -14.2.

Just being helpful.

Your ODI Update

The ODI is getting worse, after narrowing last week, Rasmussen's number is at -9 and the President's approval ratingas are down to 51.4% at Pollster.com, still leaving the ODI at -10.4%.

Not good.

Your ODI Update

Today's Obama Derangement Index is down from last week, Rasmussen has Obama at -6, the Pollster.com average is 53.4, giving us an ODI figure of -9.4, down from last week's -11.9 number.

Things are looking up for the President. We'll see how it goes next week.