How To Steal An Election, Con't

The massively immoral and anti-democratic power grab in North Carolina by Republicans bent on permanent one-party rule despite voters electing a Democratic party governor is just a preview of the GOP in the age of Trump, says Boston Globe columnist Michael Cohen.

Republicans, having barely lost the governor’s mansion, have launched an anti-democratic legislative coup. In a hastily called emergency session — and with little deliberation or public review — GOP state legislators have proposed a series of antidemocratic measures that would fundamentally erode the power of Roy Cooper, the newly elected Democratic governor. The goal is simple: to use the authority of state law to ensure continued Republican political dominance.

The GOP’s power grab is both terrifying and comical in its breadth. Proposed legislation would force Cooper’s cabinet picks to be confirmed in the state Senate. Previously they were appointed without Senate confirmation.

It would reduce the number of political appointees that Cooper can chose, from 1,5000 to 300. This would reverse the Legislature’s earlier decision, when Cooper’s Republican predecessor, Pat McCrory became governor, to expand the number of appointees. It would also allow McCrory’s partisan picks to keep their jobs and become career state employees.

Cooper would be stripped of the right to appoint members to the state university’s boards of trustees — and that right would be transferred to the state Legislature, which, not surprisingly, has a Republican supermajority. That huge GOP advantage was obtained by a discriminatory and unconstitutionally drawn legislative map. A federal court has in recent weeks overturned the map and demanded it be redrawn, while also mandating a new election for the state Legislature to be held next year.

But since, apparently, North Carolina Republicans feel they haven’t done enough to rig the state’s voting system, they are now trying to radically erode Cooper’s control over state and local election boards. In perhaps the GOP’s most creative move, proposed legislation would also mandate that the board of elections be rotated between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats having the chairmanship in odd-numbered years and the GOP in even-numbered years. Guess which years most elections in North Carolina are held?

Just in case you think that state courts can reverse these decisions, the Legislature is also considering a bill that would make it more difficult to bring cases to the state Supreme Court, which — and you guessed it — is now controlled by Democrats.

The GOP’s actions fit a familiar pattern. This is the same group of legislators that in another emergency legislative session passed HB2, the so-called transgender bathroom law, which also prevented local jurisdictions from putting in place antidiscrimination laws to protect the rights of LGBT North Carolinians.

Together with McCrory, North Carolina Republicans cut unemployment benefits and funding for early childhood education. They gave generous tax breaks to the state’s wealthiest citizens while scrapping the earned-income tax credit. Perhaps most famously, the GOP passed the most onerous voting restriction law in the country, one that was overturned by a federal court because of evidence that the legislation “targeted African Americans with almost surgical precision.”

I’ve had my hair on fire for months now about the existential threat to democracy that Donald Trump represents. We’re already seeing evidence of his authoritarian tendencies and lack of respect for democratic norms in the five weeks since he won the presidency. But what’s happening in North Carolina right now is the real deal. This is a frontal assault on democracy.

McCrory signed these measures into law last night and there's nothing Democrats can do right now.  He'll get to re-appoint nearly all of his state board choices for a four-year stint starting December 30, and Cooper will not have the ability to fire a single one of them, meaning that McCrory will get to appoint all of Cooper's picks.

The state's GOP Lieutenant Governor, Dan Forest, is even more rabidly right-wing than McCrory and will get to make a number of appointments himself, without any oversight from Cooper at all.

In short, this is a coup.  This would be like Congress and and outgoing Republican president signing a bill that would allow the outgoing president to pick all the new president's cabinet members, and a bill that would put Republicans in charge of elections in all 50 states during even-numbered years when federal elections were held.  It would be a disaster.

But that's exactly what will happen in NC now.  It's a banana republic, and I hope that voters throw the bums out.

 

How To Steal An Election, Con't

I've talked about NC Republicans actively trying to steal the election of Democratic AG Roy Cooper to the Governor's seat several times, and when I thought current NC GOP Gov. Pat "Bathroom Bill" McCrory conceded ten days ago that Cooper would be able to take office and move the state towards the light again.

How absolutely wrong I was.

Expanding beyond the disaster recovery legislation the General Assembly approved Wednesday, Republican lawmakers quickly proposed sweeping changes to state government, including proposals that would diminish the governor’s authority to make appointments. 

Lawmakers want to hobble the incoming Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, before he takes office Jan. 1 by making his Cabinet appointments subject to approval by the state Senate and cutting his ability to appoint members to UNC schools’ boards of trustees and the state Board of Education. 

Another proposal in the mix would equally divide election boards between the two major political parties, ending control by the governor’s party. 

Yet another provision would cut the number of employees who serve at the governor’s pleasure from 1,500 to 300, reversing an expansion approved for Republican Gov. Pat McCrory at the start of his term. 

Of the two dozen bills filed by both Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday night, only a handful are likely to be voted on during this special session. Those that are likely to move forward represent a significant shakeup by the Republican-controlled legislature.

Rick Hasen reads the fine print and discovers that the GOP, having been thwarted in stealing the election, are now trying to steal the office of governor itself.

It is much, much worse than it looks now that the bill is posted. The Democratic party appointees to the election board would chair in odd numbered years, and the Republican party appointees would chair in even numbered years (see page 4 of the bill), meaning that they would chair in each of the years in which there are legislative, congressional, and presidential elections. 

The state supreme court would be limited in reviewing state constitutional and federal challenges, giving the power instead first to an en banc panel of intermediate appellate court judges (who of course are Republican majority) and limiting appeals as of right (see from pages 20 on in the bill). 

If the bill passes in this form, I could see potential Voting Rights Act and federal constitutional challenges here, in part because the legislature would potentially be diluting minority voting power and making minority voters worse off, just at the time that their candidate of choice (Gov. Cooper) is poised to assume power.

Guess how far such a challenge would go in Trump's Supreme Court or Justice Department voting rights or civil rights divisions?

Folks, NC Republicans are essentially transferring all the governor's power to the GOP controlled assembly in an attempt to completely neuter Democrats, for the sole reason that a Democrat dared to win the race.

This is how America works now.

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article120832758.html#storylink=cpy

Last Call For McCrory's Nemesis

Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling takes a look at why NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory lost his bid for re-election, finally conceding yesterday to Democratic state AG Roy Cooper.  PPP is based in NC, and Jensen notes a lot of credit for McCrory's defeat needs to be given to the Moral Monday movement in the state.

McCrory really could claim somewhat of a mandate when he was elected. He won by 12 points in 2012 even as Mitt Romney carried the state by only 2 points, and our polling found him winning independent voters 2:1 and winning about 25% of Democrats. He was seen as being a different kind of Republican, and he got significant crossover support because of that.

But despite going into office with all that popularity and goodwill, he had a negative approval rating by July of 2013, just 8 months after his triumphant election. And he stayed with a negative approval rating every single month until this October in our polling- 39 months in a row of an under water approval rating. Only positive reactions to his handling of Hurricane Matthew got him back in positive territory at the very end, but in the end hostility towards his tenure as Governor was deeply ingrained enough in voters that it only allowed him to lose by a smaller margin than he would have if not for the Hurricane.

What happened in the summer of 2013 to make McCrory so permanently unpopular? He allowed himself to be associated with a bunch of unpopular legislation, and progressives hit back HARD, in a way that really caught voters' attention and resonated with them.

And that's where Moral Mondays came in, constantly protesting against the NC GOP's agenda in a visible and effective manner.

McCrory spearheaded or went along with all of this. And he might have gotten away with it without much impact on his image. Most voters don't pay close attention to state government.

But the Moral Monday movement pushed back hard. Its constant visibility forced all of these issues to stay in the headlines. Its efforts ensured that voters in the state were educated about what was going on in Raleigh, and as voters became aware of what was going on, they got mad. All those people who had seen McCrory as a moderate, as a different kind of Republican, had those views quickly changed. By July McCrory had a negative approval rating- 40% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapproved. By September it was all the way down to 35/53, and he never did fully recover from the damage the rest of his term.

Moral Mondays became a very rare thing- a popular protest movement. In August 2013 we found 49% of voters had a favorable opinion of the protesters to only 35% with an unfavorable opinion of them. And their message was resonating- 50% of voters in the state felt state government was causing North Carolina national embarrassment to only 34% who disagreed with that notion.

The lesson for the Trump era, according to Jensen (and it's a good one):

Pushing back hard on McCrory worked. The seeds of his final defeat today were very much planted in the summer of 2013. And it's a lesson for progressives in dealing with Trump. Push back hard from day one. Be visible. Capture the public's attention, no matter what you have to do to do it. Don't count on the media to do it itself because the media will let you down. The protesters in North Carolina, by making news in their own right week after week after week, forced sustained coverage of what was going on in Raleigh. And even though it was certainly a long game, with plenty more frustration in between, those efforts led to change at the polls 42 months after they really started.

A national version of the Moral Monday movement is what we need to help push back against Trump. North Carolina's progressives showed us the way.

How To Steal An Election, Con't

The sad, strange tale of Pat McCrory comes to an end as the NC GOP governor, now more than 10,000 votes away from beating Democratic AG Roy Cooper for the gubernatorial race, has been forced to concede by mean old reality.

Gov. Pat McCrory announced Monday that he’s conceded the election to Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s attorney general, and will support transition efforts. 

McCrory made the concession in a video message posted around noon Monday as a recount he requested in Durham County entered its final hours. Durham officials plan to finish the recount later Monday, but early results from the recount showed virtually no change in the vote tally there. 

“ I personally believe that the majority of our citizens have spoken, and we now should do everything we can to support the 75th governor of North Carolina, Roy Cooper,” McCrory says in the video. “The McCrory administration team will assist in every way to help the new administration make a smooth transition. 

“It’s time to celebrate our democratic process and respect what I see to be the ultimate outcome of the closest North Carolina governor’s race in modern history.” 

McCrory’s concession comes nearly a month after Election Day, following dozens of election complaints filed by Republicans with help from the governor’s campaign. The majority of them were dismissed by GOP-controlled county election boards. 

Cooper had a lead of 10,263 votes over McCrory in nearly final election tallies on the State Board of Elections website Monday afternoon. 

With the concession, McCrory becomes the state’s first governor to lose a re-election bid. His defeat followed the nation’s second costliest gubernatorial race and North Carolina’s most expensive ever.

I honestly thought McCrory was going to try to force this into overtime and have the state's GOP-controlled General Assembly install him as Governor, but apparently that's even too much evil for the NC GOP to handle.  There really wasn't any legitimate way for McCrory to have won, either.

For now at least Democrats in the Tarheel State get a victory.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article118942758.html#storylink=cpy

How To Steal An Election, Con't

Well, I mentioned Sunday that NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory was trailing his Democratic opponent, AG Roy Cooper, in his re-election race, and that McCrory refuses to concede the race. I also mentioned that it looked like McCrory might try to stall or pull some other chicanery so that the Republican-dominated NC General Assembly would then declare McCrory the winner.

As of today this definitely looks like the plan, and Republicans in NC are definitely moving forward with it and then some.  But first, any good heist needs the setup:

N.C. House Speaker Tim Moore said Monday that the legislature could revisit voter ID requirements and other election laws in the wake of complaints filed with help from Gov. Pat McCrory’s campaign.

During a news conference announcing House Republican leaders for next year’s legislative session, Moore was asked about the complaints filed amid a tight governor’s race – making claims that dead people and convicted felons voted in this year’s election.

“The fact that there are a number of protests related to the election at least make it an issue that it’s something that needs to be dealt with,” Moore told reporters.

The speaker said GOP legislators still support the voter ID law that was struck down by a federal court this year.

“We believe firmly that the voter ID law that we passed should have passed constitutional muster in every way, and certainly we’ll continue to work on that because we believe voter integrity is very important,” he said.

Did you catch that?

The NC GOP are now heavily implying the idea that, because part of the state's effort to disenfranchise black voters was struck down by the courts, that McCrory's loss can be attributed to lack of "voter integrity". 

Pay close attention to that setup, because the heist is now in the works. Mark Jospeh Stern at Slate explains:

This chicanery will be easier to pull off than you might expect. Thus far, McCrory has questioned votes in more than half of North Carolina’s counties. One attorney monitoring the proceedings called these challenges “silly, small in number, poorly researched and often defamatory,” which is undeniable: Republican-controlled county election boards have forcefully rejected McCrory’s challenges, concluding that there is simply no proof of widespread fraud or malfeasance as McCrory claims. Frustrated by these setbacks, McCrory petitioned the Republican-controlled State Board of Elections to take over the review process. The board refused, but it agreed to meet on Tuesday to set guidelines for how county boards should address complaints.

Despite the utter lack of evidence to support allegations of fraud, McCrory’s team has launched a misinformation campaign to cast a pall of suspicion over the results. His campaign spokesman asked, “Why is Roy Cooper fighting to count the votes of dead people and felons?” McCrory’s close ally and current state budget director, Andrew T. Heath, also tweeted that Durham County has 231,000 residents over the age of 18 but 232,000 registered voters, implying fraud. (In reality, Durham’s 2015 voting-age population was about 235,600, and the county has only 193,659 active registered voters; its Republican-controlled election board already unanimously rejected a complaint alleging malfeasance.) Now McCrory’s lawyers are targeting black American voter outreach groups for purportedly violating minor procedural rules while helping voters fill out absentee ballots. The governor has falsely accused these groupsof conducting a “massive voter fraud scheme.”

McCrory can, and probably will, still ask for a statewide recount. But he must know that a recount will not close such a sizable gap. His real goal appears to be to delegitimize the results to such an extent that the state legislature—which holds a Republican supermajority—can step in and select him as the winner. North Carolina state law states that when “a contest arises out of the general election,” and that contest pertains “to the conduct or results of the election,” the legislature “shall determine which candidate received the highest number of votes” and “declare that candidate to be elected.” By alleging fraud, mishandling of ballots, and irregular vote-counting, McCrory is laying the groundwork for the legislature to proclaim that a “contest” has arisen as to “the conduct or results of the election.” At that point, it can step in, assert that McCrory received “the highest number” of legitimate votes, and “declare [him] to be elected.”

The best part? Under the law, the legislature’s decision is “not reviewable” by the courts. Republican legislators can simply step in, overturn the decision of the voters, and grant McCrory another term. The courts have no authority even to review the legality of their actions.

So McCrory is trying to imply Cooper stole the election with the help of those people, and clearly the NC General Assembly is buying this argument, so much so that it's already blaming the federal court that struck down NC's unconstitutional "omnibus voter bill" before the election.  This setup is important because it's going to be what McCrory uses as justification for stealing this election, full stop.

And he's expecting a friendly Trump administration to refuse to take any real federal action.  After all, the NC GOP's voter suppression laws, and similar laws in Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania  were the major reason why Trump won the state and the election.

This is a huge deal and I'm definitely keeping an eye on it.

How To Steal An Election

That's a pretty bold claim in the blog post title, but that's the only possible conclusion at this point back home in North Carolina as even with a 8,000 vote lead in the governor's race, Democratic candidate and NC Attorney General Roy Cooper still has not gotten a concession from NC GOP Governor Pat McCrory.

Democrats and Republicans in this fiercely contested political battleground have regularly resorted to creative legal maneuvers and election-law changes in their efforts to wring every last vote from the state’s nearly seven million voters. But even by that standard, the disputed, hairbreadth race for governor is plowing litigious and acrimonious ground.

Scrambling to save the incumbent governor, Pat McCrory, Republicans said they were pursuing protests in about half of North Carolina’s 100 counties, alleging that fraud and technical troubles had pushed the Democratic nominee, Attorney General Roy Cooper, to a statewide lead of more than 6,500 votes. But Republican-controlled county elections boards, including one here in vote-rich Durham County, turned back some of the challenges on Friday.

The legal and political jockeying raised the specter of a recount, and it could ultimately climax in a political wild card: Mr. McCrory using a state law to contest the election in the state’s Republican-dominated General Assembly.

“We’re supposed to have an inauguration on Jan. 7,” Theresa Kostrzewa, a Republican lobbyist, said Friday. “Are we going to have a governor? That, I think, is what most people are going to start wondering pretty soon.”

The governor’s race this year was among the most bitterly contested campaigns in the country. The state was a prime battleground in the presidential election, and it has been fractured by debates about voting, transgender rights, Medicaid and abortion. Republicans largely prevailed here on Election Day: Donald J. Trump won North Carolina by more than three percentage points, and Senator Richard Burr was re-elected by a larger margin — but Mr. McCrory struggled.

The contest’s aftermath has become a protracted spectacle. Mr. McCrory’s campaign said this week that there were “known instances of votes being cast by dead people, felons or individuals who voted more than once.” A spokesman for Mr. Cooper, Ford Porter, replied that the governor had “set a new standard for desperation.”

Understand that Pat McCrory is openly saying the election results in his state, with many of the counties controlled by Republican-led election boards, are fraudulent.  And there is a method to that madness: state law may allow McCrory to steal the election by giving it to the Republican-dominated state legislature to determine.

Under state law, the legislature could order a new election or, “if it can determine which candidate received the highest number of votes,” it may declare a winner. The law asserts that the legislature’s decision in such a contest is “not reviewable” by the courts.

Mr. Diaz said talk about legislative involvement “seems to be media-driven speculation, but we’re not going to discuss possible future steps that the campaign may or may not take.”

He added, “We are extremely concerned about the voter fraud revelations that are emerging across the state and intend to ensure that every vote is counted and counted properly.”

A lawyer for Mr. Cooper, Marc E. Elias, who also played down the possibility that the General Assembly might decide the election’s outcome, said Republican challenges were “calculated at nothing other than needless delay.”

“There is nothing,” he added, “that Gov. McCrory or his legal team are going to be able to do to undo what is just basic math.”

Believe me when I say this is McCrory's plan.  He knows he has a lot of power here as Governor, and with the General Assembly in his pocket, he knows that if he can stall here long enough legally that the NC House will have to step in for "the good of the state".  That's why McCrory is saying the election is fraudulent and that the contest will have to be determined by Republicans in the Assembly, because there "won't be a way to know" otherwise who truly won...and the Assembly decision is final by law.

The mechanism for theft of an election is in place.  And Pat McCrory is going to try to use it.

Last Call For North Carolina Goes Down The Crapper, Con't

It looks like NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is crumbling on the state's bigots in the bathroom bill, with the NBA and NCAA pulling events and the state having lost $100 million in business from boycotts, cancellations and protests.  His new strategy remains his initial one: blame Charlotte's LBGTQ city ordinance protecting equality for the mess and demanding its repeal.

Gov. Pat McCrory could call lawmakers into session as soon as next week to repeal House Bill 2 – but only if the Charlotte City Council first drops the ordinance that prompted it, his office confirmed Friday. 

The North Carolina Restaurant & Lodging Association has been working to broker a compromise to stop the economic damage from HB2, which this week included the loss of major NCAA and Atlantic Coast Conference sporting events. 

Losing the games is expected to cause an economic loss of tens of millions of dollars.
“Our industry and the hospitality industry at large has been collateral damage in this,” said Lynn Minges, president and CEO of the restaurant group. “It’s obviously been impacting our businesses and employees. We’ve chosen to have a seat at the table rather than have an adversarial role.” 

A McCrory spokesman said the governor is willing to call lawmakers back. 

“For the last nine months, the governor has consistently said state legislation is only needed if the Charlotte ordinance remains in place,” said spokesman Josh Ellis. “If the Charlotte City Council totally repeals the ordinance and then we can confirm there is support to repeal among the majority of state lawmakers … the governor will call a special session. 

“It is the governor’s understanding that legislative leaders ... agree with that assessment.” 

But repealing the Charlotte ordinance, which broadened LGBT protections before it was nullified by HB2, would meet resistance. One gay rights spokeswoman Friday called the proposed compromise “the same cheap trick” lawmakers have floated before. It’s unclear whether the council would have the votes to repeal its ordinance. 

It’s also unclear whether businesses would return to North Carolina if the compromise involved Charlotte giving up legal protections for gay, lesbian and transgender individuals. And a deal might not end the legal challenges.

So we're back to where we were when the Charlotte city ordinance was passed: McCrory will end the bill as long as Charlotte makes it legal again to fire people for being gay, and it only cost the state $100 million.

Hopefully it will cost McCrory the election, too.

Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article102251942.html#storylink=cpy

North Carolina Goes Into The Crapper, Con't

Apparently since losing the NBA All-Star Game wasn't enough to make NC Gov. Pat McCrory and the rest of the NC GOP in the legislature to drop the state's ridiculous and discriminatory HB2 law, it's time to hit the Tarheel State where it hurts: March Madness.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association said on Monday that it would relocate all seven previously awarded championship events from North Carolina during the 2016-17 academic year because of concerns over laws passed by the state that it said violated the civil rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people.

The N.C.A.A. said the decision by its board of governors was based on “the cumulative actions taken by the state concerning civil rights protections” that conflicted with the organization’s commitment to “fairness and inclusion.”

“Fairness is about more than the opportunity to participate in college sports, or even compete for championships,” Mark Emmert, the N.C.A.A. president, said in a statement. “We believe in providing a safe and respectful environment at our events and are committed to providing the best experience possible for college athletes, fans and everyone taking part in our championships.”

The move by the N.C.A.A. comes less than two months after the National Basketball Association said it would move next February’s All-Star Game from Charlotte as a protest against a North Carolina law that canceled anti-discrimination protections for L.G.B.T. people. Earlier, a number of performers canceled concerts in the state, including Bruce Springsteen, Ringo Starr and Itzhak Perlman.

The N.C.A.A. said on Monday that the legal situation facing L.G.B.T. people in North Carolina was unique because of what it called “four specific factors.”

Among them were laws that barred transgender people from using public restrooms that correspond to their gender identity and laws that allow government officials to refuse to provide services to L.G.B.T. people.

The N.C.A.A. also criticized a North Carolina law that forbids local municipalities from passing their own anti-discrimination laws that included sexual orientation or gender identity. Five states and a number of cities have also passed laws that bar public employees and representatives of public institutions from traveling to North Carolina, which the organization said could be interpreted to include student athletes and university athletics staff members.

In addition to losing the first and second round NCAA men's basketball regionals in Greensboro, the state is also losing soccer, lacrosse, tennis and baseball regional and championship events.  Losing the women's College Cup soccer championship is a blow, but being the Governor that lost March Madness in North Carolina is something that really will get Pat McCrory ejected from office faster than you can say "Demon Deacons".

The Southeast regionals get held in Greensboro pretty much every year, as we take our college basketball pretty damn seriously back home in ACC country, and believe me when I say this is damn well going to get the attention of voters in NC. McCrory is in real trouble because of this.

And I can't wait for him to get the hook.

North Carolina Goes Down The Crapper, Con't

If this week's Monmouth University poll of North Carolina is any indication, GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's re-election bid is in real trouble.

In the contest for governor, Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper holds a significant 52% to 43% lead over incumbent Pat McCrory. Another 3% say they will vote for Libertarian Lon Cecil and 3% are undecided. 

Cooper has the support of 93% of Democratic voters, while McCrory gets the backing of 89% of Republicans. Independents are divided at 47% for Cooper and 45% for McCrory. Cooper has a net positive personal rating of 38% favorable and 18% unfavorable, with 44% expressing no opinion of him. McCrory’s personal rating is more divided at 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable, with 20% having no opinion of him. 

Importantly, Tar Heel voters are split on the incumbent’s performance as governor, with 45% approving of the job McCrory has done and 46% disapproving. A key element in the governor’s rating is his support for House Bill 2 or HB2, the controversial law that prohibits local governments from allowing for transgender public restrooms.

A majority of voters (55%) disapprove of HB2 compared to fewer than 4-in-10 (36%) who approve of HB2. Among voters who approve of the law, 74% are backing McCrory in the governor’s race. Among those who disapprove of it, 72% are voting for Cooper.
“McCrory is trying to take control of the HB2 debate with a new TV ad. As of right now, though, North Carolina voters feel it has hurt the state, which is helping Cooper’s bid to unseat the incumbent,” said Murray. 

The Monmouth University Poll found that 7-in-10 voters (70%) feel the passage of HB2 has been bad for North Carolina’s reputation nationally. Only 9% say it has been good for the state’s image and just 14% say it has had no impact. Even among those who approve of the law itself, 41% say HB2 has been bad for the state’s reputation compared to 21% who say it has been good and 28% who say it has had no impact.

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton up by 2, and GOP Sen. Richard Burr up by 2 in his re-election run against Deborah Ross, and even with the poll's high 4.9% MOE, McCrory is definitely running behind.

In fact, regardless of the Monmouth poll, the news for McCrory, Burr, and other NC Republicans is looking pretty grim.

Although the state has voted for a Republican president all but twice since 1968, the national tea party wave in 2010 brought the state legislature and governor’s mansion under Republican control for the first time since Reconstruction. North Carolina then moved rapidly to the right with several conservative reforms that caused an uproar among liberals in the state. 

Now, over the last few weeks as the possibility of tough election losses sinks in, top Republicans and some donors — who have had much to celebrate over the last six years — are trying to plot contingency plans to make up for the lack of field organization and advertising dollars from the Republican Party’s nominee to boost down-ballot candidates, sources say. 

Their fear is that a Trump loss by more than four or five points could put a dent in the party’s super majorities in the state legislature and a Democrat in the governor’s mansion, reversing the political course of the state. 

“I do think that people need to be very open eyed about what could potentially go wrong,” said one such top Republican who has been involved in discussions. “The sky isn’t falling, but it’s cloudy and we need to get in gear. It’s going to require a different level of organization and intervening from the top of the ticket than we’ve seen, and it’s going to require support from outside groups.”

So if support for Trump and McCrory starts to soften considerably, my home state could finally find the votes it needs to free itself from the Republicans who have been destroying it for the last six years.

Here's hoping.

Last Call For Voting Rights And Wrongs

As expected, NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is demanding that the Supreme Court immediately reinstate the unconstitutional "voting reform" law passed by Republicans to disenfranchise black and Latino voters.

North Carolina officials asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday to keep a voter identification requirement and 10 days of early voting for the November election, even after a lower appeals court ruled these changes illegally restricted voting by blacks.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory said his lawyers and those for other officials, including some hired by GOP legislative leaders who championed the 2013 law, asked the court to delay enforcement of last month's ruling by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The delay would occur while attorneys draft an appeal for the justices to consider the inherent issues in the case more deeply. 

The ruling struck down the photo ID mandate and returned early voting to 17 days.
The attorneys wrote that altering the voter laws would create voter confusion weeks before the election inNorth Carolina, a presidential battleground state with races for governor and U.S. Senate also on the ballot. The voter ID requirement already was used in this year's primary elections. 

"North Carolina should not be forced to scramble mere months before the general election to rejigger settled election plans at the 4th Circuit's command," the state's attorneys wrote to Chief Justice John Roberts. Roberts receives such appeals for North Carolina matters. 

A three-judge panel of the 4th Circuit already refused to delay their July 29 ruling, which found the Republican-led General Assembly enacted the law with intentional discrimination in mind. The court ruled the changes targeted black voters more likely to support Democrats. 

McCrory has said the ruling is factually wrong and maligned the state, adding that requiring photo ID makes common sense and protects the integrity of elections at a time when people must show IDs all the time. 

"The 4th Circuit's ruling is just plain wrong and we cannot allow it to stand," McCrory said in a release.

So we'll see what the Supreme Court does.  Given the 4th Circuit's pretty substantial findings, especially given that the state's Republican party went out of their way to target black NC voters in particular with practices that would specifically limit their ability to vote, I can't see the Supreme Court saying "Hey, yeah, we need to keep those practices going until we can decide this."

Then again, all Chief Justice Roberts would need to do is say "It's too close to the election in order to make any changes" and punt, which is why McCrory waited several weeks in order to petition the court for an injunction.

How the court will proceed, I don't know.  We'll find out soon, I suspect.

Last Call For NC Goes Down The Crapper, Con't

Looks like the NBA has finally pulled the plug on the 2017 All-Star Game in Charlotte over Pat McCrory's bigoted bathroom bill.

Without any movement by state legislators in North Carolina to change newly enacted laws targeted at the LGBT community, the NBA is pulling the 2017 All-Star Game out of Charlotte, league sources told The Vertical. 

The NBA is focused on the New Orleans’ Smoothie King Center as the host for All-Star Weekend and the All-Star Game on Feb. 19, league sources told The Vertical. 

For now, there are still other cities trying to lure the All-Star Game, sources said. 

A formal announcement on the NBA’s withdrawal out of Charlotte is expected as soon as this week, league sources said Thursday. 

NBA commissioner Adam Silver had threatened to move All-Star Weekend out of Charlotte unless a discriminatory North Carolina law aimed at the state’s lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community was changed – and time to do so has run out because of the logistics and planning the NBA needs to run its marquee midseason event, league sources said. 

The issue is centered on North Carolina’s House Bill 2, a law that mandates transgender people use public restrooms corresponding to the sex listed on their birth certificates. The law also omits LGBT people from North Carolina’s anti-discrimination protections, forbids local governments from widening LGBT protections and excludes all forms of workplace discrimination lawsuits from North Carolina state courts. 

Charlotte Hornets owner Michael Jordan had been counting on All-Star Weekend as a signature event for his franchise, and the economic impact of losing the All-Star Game for the franchise and region promises to be dramatic.

Dramatic, you say?  Yeah, try tens of millions of dollars.  So guess what, North Carolina? Republicans just cost you a crapload of money and made you look like bigoted assholes in front of America.

The good news is you can fix it in November.

North Carolina Goes Into The Crapper, Con't.

The Charlotte Chamber of Commerce is raging mad at NC GOP Gov. Pay McCrory and the state's GOP lawmakers as so far the state's idiotic HB2 "bathroom bill" has cost the state $285 million in lost business...

...and that's just Charlotte.

Mecklenburg County has suffered an economic blow of $285 million and a loss of as many as 1,300 jobs as a result of House Bill 2, a new Charlotte Chamber report says. 

The report also says inquiries about new economic development are down 58 percent since lawmakers passed the bill in March, and client visits down 69 percent from last year. 

“We have said all along that the economic loss has been real, the risk of further loss is great, and this is potentially catastrophic to our economy,” Chamber President Bob Morgan said. 

The report was distributed to Charlotte City Council members and some lawmakers. The council voted 7-4 Monday night against considering a repeal of the city ordinance that prompted lawmakers to pass HB2.

That toll is expected to climb higher if the law stays in place, too.  $285 million in lost business and 1,300 jobs is nothing to sneeze at, and that's not counting any other of North Carolina's other 99 counties that have lost business and jobs because of NC Republican bigots.

That's the kind of losses that look bad to lawmakers, and look even worse to voters around election day.  Hopefully my home state will finally kick these idiots out of office in November, starting with McCrory.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article79503287.html#storylink=cpy

NC Goes Straight Into The Crapper, Con't

With the Justice Department making good on their threat to sue the state over HB2's Title IX violations of the Civil Rights Act, NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory wants Republicans in Congress to maybe, you know, get rid of that part of the law altogether.

Speaking to CNN host Jake Tapper on Wednesday, McCrory accused Democrats of starting a fight over transgender bathroom rights by passing an ordinance in the City of Charlotte that allowed transgender people to visit public restrooms that correspond to their gender identity. 

“I think that this was an argument that we didn’t need to have,” McCrory opined. “But this is an agenda by the far left. And for some reason, the national media is saying the far right brought this up. I had no interest in this subject.” 

“But the Justice Department is basically making a civil rights claim that every private sector employer in the U.S. and every university in the United States must have gender expression or gender identity bathroom choices for individuals,” the governor complained. 

Tapper pointed out that transgender children “have a very difficult time fitting in, they have very high suicide rates.” 

“What are you telling the teachers at schools in North Carolina where, say, a 12-year-old who identifies as a girl, though her birth certificate says boy, what do you tell teachers about her if she’s using the girl’s bathroom?” the CNN host wondered. 

McCrory argued that the solution was to “make special circumstances” by allowing the transgender girl to use a segregated bathroom. 

“But now the Civil Right Division of the U.S. Justice Department has deemed those types of arrangements to be discriminatory,” McCrory remarked.

Right.  Charlotte's bathroom ordinance made it necessary for Republicans to pass a law in 12 hours that dealt with eliminating local minimum wage and ending the right to sue over labor discrimination in state courts.  Yeah,  Sure.  THEY picked that fight.

“But to have the Justice Department come out with a massive interpretation of the Civil Rights Act for every employer in the United States now is something that I think need clarification by the federal courts.” 

In fact, McCrory suggested that Congress should take a look at gutting the entire Civil Rights Act over the issue. 

“I think there’s a time where the Republicans and the Democrats in this Congress need to revisit the 1964 Civil Rights Act, and revisit all this issue,” the first-term governor opined. “Because these are complex issues and North Carolina for whatever reason politically has become the target by the left on this agenda.”

Gosh, we don't know why anyone would pick on us when all we did was make a state law enshrining discrimination against a certain minority class of people.  I can't imagine why the federal government would be upset at a Southern state doing that.

Meanwhile, let's talk about who are the bullies in this scenario.

While Republican state leaders have complained about being "bullied" by the federal government over House Bill 2, lobbyists in Raleigh tell WRAL News they and the businesses they represent are being bullied by state lawmakers seeking to silence business opposition to the new law.

Lobbyists say they've been told – either directly by legislative leaders or by lawmakers' staff – that, if they or the businesses they represent speak out publicly against House Bill 2, they can expect retribution from House and Senate leaders. 

Legislation they want won't move, and other bills could actually target them. 

WRAL News spoke with 11 lobbyists who have experienced or are aware of such actions, but none would speak on the record for fear they would lose business or be targeted for retribution. One has already lost business. 

One long-time lobbyist called the pressure a "gross abuse of power." Another veteran lobbyist labeled it "vicious," adding, "I've never seen anything like it." 

Rep. Chris Sgro, D-Guilford, an outspoken critic of House Bill 2, said he's heard about the problem. 

"It's really disturbing. It's a bullying tactic that potentially leadership is using," Sgro said. "If it’s true that businesses are being threatened that they need to ignore their bottom line in favor of terrible public policy, that’s just irresponsible. That needs to stop immediately.

It's one thing for a private business to say "we don't agree with this law."  It's another thing entirely for a government to punish private businesses for disagreeing with them, and that is literally the definition of the Freedom of Speech clause in the First Amendment.

So yeah, there's yet another civil rights violation that NC can look forward to being sued over.

North Carolina Goes Into The Crapper, Con't

NC GOP Gov. Pat McCrory isn't waiting around for the Justice Department to make good on its implied threat (deadline today) to withhold Title IX federal funding over civil rights violations in the state's HB2 "Bathroom Bill".  Rather, it seems the state's Republicans are going to sue the Obama administration for the right to discriminate against transgender people instead.

Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina on Monday escalated the nation’s clash about transgender rights and sued the Justice Department, which said last week that the state had violated the Civil Rights Act of 1964 when it passed a law that prohibited people from using public restrooms that do not correspond with the gender listed on their birth certificates. 

In the suit, the governor accused the Justice Department of a “radical reinterpretation” of the law. 

“The department contends that North Carolina’s common sense privacy policy constitutes a pattern or practice of discriminating against transgender employees in the terms and conditions of their employment because it does not give employees an unfettered right to use the bathroom or changing facility of their choice based on gender identity,” said Mr. McCrory’s lawsuit, which was filed in a Federal District Court in North Carolina. “The department’s position is a baseless and blatant overreach.” 

A spokeswoman for the Justice Department did not immediately respond to a message.

McCrory is betting that he can run out the clock on the Justice Department taking any actions while the suit is pending, and clearly he's hoping for both a a friendlier administration in 2017 who will drop the case completely, and a banner issue for NC Republicans to rally around for his re-election campaign in November. By saying that the law "needs to be resolved at a federal level" and that he's "taking the initiative to protect federal funding" for the state, he's framing the left as the bullies here, rather than "suing for the right to tell trans folks where to pee."

It's not an entirely stupid move, that is if you're going to stick with the entirely stupid move of HB2.

We'll see how far he gets, but he's clearly fishing for an injunction preventing any DoJ action pending a Supreme Court ruling, and that could take years.

As a countermove, the Justice Department sued NC right back.

The Department of Justice sued North Carolina on Monday, saying the state’s recently-passed “bathroom law” violates federal civil rights laws. 

The move comes hours after North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory sued the Department of Justice over its interpretation of the law. 

Last week, the Department of Justice sent a letter to McCrory saying the controversial law — which bans transgender people access to restrooms that match their gender identity in government buildings and schools — violates Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. 

“The state is engaging in a pattern or practice of discrimination against transgender state employees,” U.S. Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Vanita Gupta wrote in the letter to McCrory. 

Gupta gave McCrory until Monday, May 9, to respond with a solution to “remedy the situation.”

So now the battle begins.

NC Goes Down The Crapper

North Carolina Republicans are calling out federal Justice Department officials, saying they will openly defy a deadline to modify the state's HB2 "bathroom bill".  At stake: billions of dollars in federal Title IX funding for state schools and universities as lawmakers face civil rights violations.

The Republican leaders of North Carolina’s General Assembly defiantly announced Thursday that they would not meet a Monday deadline to suspend or repeal a state law limiting bathroom access for transgender people, setting up a potential legal showdown over what has become one of the nation’s most explosive cultural issues.

“We will take no action by Monday,” said Tim Moore, the speaker of the State House of Representatives, referring to the deadline the Justice Department gave the state to tell federal officials whether the law would stand. “That deadline will come and go.”

Though Mr. Moore criticized the deadline as “unreasonable,” he also seemed to signal that Republicans might eventually agree to alter the law, which forbids people to use public building restrooms that do not match the gender listed on their birth certificates.

“The legislative process doesn’t work where a response can be given by just a few days,” he said, “so we’re going to move at the speed that we’re going to move at to look at what our options are at this point.”

His comments, as well as a private meeting later with a leading critic of the law, Mayor Jennifer Roberts of Charlotte, were indications that lawmakers here may be concerned about the potentially damaging consequences of keeping the law intact and defying the Justice Department.

The Obama administration contends that the law violates the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and its finding could push the federal government to withhold in federal aid.

The law puts more than $4.8 billion in federal funding to state and local governments at risk, according to a recent analysis by the Williams Institute, a research organization at the University of California, Los Angeles, law school that focuses on sexual orientation and gender identity law. The bulk of those losses would be from education funds, though the state could also lose money for career services, health care, housing and other purposes.

$5 billion is real money folks, and I'm not sure what's going to happen to my home state if the feds make good on this threat.  This leverage is there for a reason, but ten million people in North Carolina are going to be hurt if this happens. That's $500 a person roughly, and that's not trivial, especially in the poorer parts of the Tarheel State.

Beyond that, the political fallout isn't going to be fun either.  We'll see which side the voters blame for this, the Obama administration or GOP Gov. Pat McCrory and the NC GOP.  A major court battle isn't out of the question either, so this could drag on for years, especially if McCrory wins re-election in November and voters keep the NC GOP in power.

A Mess Of Carolina BBQ, Con't

The fate of the 2017 NBA All-Star Game has been up in the air for a while now, with the NBA expressing its disappointment with GOP Gov. Pat McCrory over HB2 initially and then the NBA denying rumors that it was going to move the All-Star Game last week.

Well, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver put all that to rest in a big way with a very unambiguous statement to McCrory and the NC GOP this week: Change the law, or lose the 2017 NBA All-Star Game, period.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said Thursday that if North Carolina’s LGBT law remains unchanged, the 2017 All-Star Game would have to be moved from Charlotte. 

Silver’s comments on the state’s controversial House Bill 2 came at the Associated Press Sports Editors’ commissioner meetings Thursday, according to attendees. Earlier in the day, Silver again called the law “problematic” for the league as it stands, but he said he’s confident state lawmakers will “do the right thing.” 

“We’ve been, I think, crystal clear a change in the law is necessary for us to play in the kind of environment that we think is appropriate for a celebratory NBA event,” Silver said at the APSE event. 

And speaking on ESPN’s Mike & Mike morning radio show, Silver said the NBA is more interested in working with local businesses and governments to effect change in the law, rather than in setting ultimatums about the 2017 All-Star Game, which is to take place in Charlotte. 

“They know what’s at stake in terms of the All-Star Game. But at least at the moment, constructive engagement on our part is the best way to go as opposed to putting a gun to their head and saying ‘do this or else,’” Silver said. 

It’s the same message he had last week following the NBA board of governors meetings in New York, when Silver said no decisions had been made about moving the game from Charlotte.

Your move, NC GOP.  But hey, losing the All-Star Game will only cost the state and businesses tens of millions, and I'm really sure that'll look good in November when you're up for re-election.

Good luck with that, guys.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article73086142.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article73086142.html#storylink=cpy

Last Call For Sense Of The Senate

The latest call on US Senate races from Larry Sabato's team at the University of Virginia definitely puts control of the upper chamber in play in November.

When you look at the big picture of presidential elections, and you try to discern the connection between the White House contest and the 34 Senate elections on the same ballot, it becomes obvious there are two types of years. 

The first type we might call “disjointed.” Voters seem to be separating their judgments about these very distinct offices in most competitive races. The presidential candidate who wins adds only a handful — or fewer — additional Senate seats to his party’s total. The presidential coattails are short. 

The second type could be termed “intertwined.” The candidates for the White House are very polarizing and distinct, and one or both major-party contenders color the voters’ perceptions of all officeholders on the same partisan label. The party whose letter (D or R) becomes toxic loses a substantial number of Senate seats; thus, the presidential coattails are long. 

The second type is somewhat rarer, to judge by the elections for president since World War II, as shown in Table 1. However, the six-year cycles of the three different Senate classes and the current party makeup of each class obviously matter. For instance, the Democrats only gained two net Senate seats in 1964, a seemingly small increase considering Lyndon Johnson’s landslide victory. But six years earlier the Democrats netted 15 Senate seats in the 1958 midterm election, meaning they already controlled a large majority of seats in Class 1, the group of states up in 1964. Conversely, the Republicans won 12 net seats in 1980 when the Democrats entered the cycle controlling 24 of the 34 seats up in Class 3 (which is the same class up in 2016). 

No one can say for sure to which category 2016 will belong, but our early expectation is “intertwined.” Considering the rise of Donald Trump, the polarization in U.S. politics, and a higher rate of straight-ticket voting, this could be bad news for the GOP. We have already sketched out a “Trumpmare” doomsday presidential scenario for the Republicans, who control the Senate now by a margin of 54 to 46. Assuming the GOP nominee for the White House is either Trump or Ted Cruz, we think the Democrats will fare reasonably well down-ballot (more so with Trump than Cruz, though Cruz will also have a difficult time carrying many swing states). As shown in Chart 1, in recent presidential cycles, about 80% of states with Senate elections have backed the same party for the presidency and the Senate. In light of the fact that Republicans control 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, including many in states that President Obama won in 2008 and/or 2012, straight-ticket voting could bode poorly for the GOP.

Indeed, the latest map is good news for the Donks.



Giving the Dems a shot at six seats with two pick-ups likely in Wisconsin and Illinois, is definitely an improvement.  That means the Dems would have to keep Harry Reid's seat, and get two more (if Clinton/Sanders wins) or three more (if Trump/Cruz wins).

Pennsylvania and Florida are definitely winnable, as are Ohio and New Hampshire.  It's even possible that Roy Blount, Richard Burr, and yes, even John McCain's seats are possible pickups for the Democrats if Trump or Cruz wrecks the place as much as I think they will.

But there are a dozen governor's seats up for grabs in November too, and the biggest ones are Mike Pence in Indiana and Pat McCrory in North Carolina.  Sabato's call:

Indiana: One of the surprising margins on Election Night 2012 was now-Gov. Mike Pence’s (R) closer-than-expected win over former state House Speaker John Gregg (D). Pence won by just three percentage points and ran about 4.5 points behind Mitt Romney, who easily carried the state in the presidential race after Barack Obama very narrowly won it in 2008. Gregg is running again. Since winning, Pence has had some shaky moments, most notably a controversy over a 2015 bill that some believed would legitimize discrimination against gays and lesbians. More recently, Pence signed a bill that made Indiana just the second state (along with North Dakota) to outlaw abortions that parents seek because the fetus has been diagnosed with a disability. Gregg, who opposes abortion rights, argues that the bill goes too far. While Indiana is the most conservative state in the Midwest, it’s fair to wonder whether social issues could hurt Pence in his reelection bid. But the bigger problem for Pence is one he shares in common with the other incumbents discussed here: The GOP’s problems at the top of the ticket could potentially trim the Republican presidential nominee’s margins in Indiana, or even allow the Democratic nominee to carry the state, as Obama did once. Obama’s 2008 victory didn’t prevent Pence’s predecessor, Mitch Daniels (R), from easily winning reelection with 58% of the vote, but Pence isn’t Daniels, and he has not yet displayed the kind of crossover appeal that his predecessor enjoyed. Pence remains a favorite in his rematch with Gregg, but we’re moving the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. 

North Carolina: The Tar Heel State’s statehouse race has always been the marquee gubernatorial contest this cycle. Not only is North Carolina the most populous state holding a gubernatorial race this year, but it’s also one of only two gubernatorial states (the much-smaller New Hampshire is the other) that are likely to be presidential swing states in the event of a close national race. Gov. Pat McCrory (R) has generally had fairly weak approval numbers throughout his time in office, and he is now dealing with a challenge similar to the one Pence faced last year: McCrory just signed a bill that bans cities from creating local policies dealing with gender-identity discrimination and forces transgender students in public schools to use the bathroom that corresponds with their birth gender. There’s been a backlash over the law, and it has so far led PayPal to cancel plans to create 400 jobs in the state. Republicans have long recognized the threat that Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) presents to McCrory, and both sides are gearing up for an expensive, nasty race. Because of incumbency, we were giving McCrory the benefit of the doubt. But no longer: A Donald Trump or Ted Cruz nomination could very well allow the Democratic nominee to win North Carolina, and even if the GOP nominee does carry North Carolina in the fall there’s no guarantee that McCrory will run ahead of the presidential ticket. McCrory’s reelection bid moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

I'd love to see Pence and McCrory gone in a Trump/Cruz meltdown that wipes the GOP out in this election cycle, and I'm sure most of you would love it too.  Equality issues doing both of them in? Sign me up.