Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The McSame Negative Attacks Aren't Working

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll is a disaster for McSame.
With two weeks to go until Election Day, Obama now leads his Republican rival by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

McSame is getting killed across the board. Obama is now ahead in PA, VA, and CO...meaning he can win without Florida or Ohio. So what's killing McSame? 3 things: the economy, nobody cares about Bill Ayers, and Sarah Palin's massive negative numbers.
That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

Pause and reflect on that...voters think Sarah Palin is now a larger problem for McSame than President Bush is.

He's done. 10 points with 2 weeks to go? Not going to happen.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

I got a fiver says somebody on the GOP (not a blogger or El Rushbo, but an actual state/national GOP party official or McSame campaign official) denounces Obama's trip to Hawaii as:

  1. a campaign stunt to elicit sympathy,
  2. something that proves just how out of touch Obama is for being able to fly to Hawaii at a moment's notice,
  3. proof that Obama is using all that "suspect campaign money illegally for personal reasons",
  4. some combination of the above.
Just sayin.

More LIBOR Fun

LIBOR rates took another sharp decline this morning, the overnight rate is down to 1.58% and both the 1-month and 3-month rates fell 22 basis points. Granted, there's still a lot further to fall, but at least for now the credit emergency does appear to be over.

Now the next emergency begins. Hyper-inflation? Credit card defaults exploding? There are still plenty of shoes left to drop.
So there is now a growing chorus saying that the stock market has bottomed out, that is oversold and this is the time to buy. The problem is that all the possible good news about policy makers doing everything necessary to avoid a meltdown were already priced in the 10% jump in global equities on Monday while, from now on macro news, earnings news for financial and non-financial firms and additional surprises from systemically important components of the global financial system, will mostly surprise on the downside with considerable further downside risks to financial markets. These systemic financial risks include: a major surge in corporate defaults rates and fall in recovery rates as the recession becomes severe thus leading to a further widening of credit spreads; the risk of a CDS market blowout as corporate defaults start to spike; the collapse of hundreds of hedge funds that, while being small individually, will have systemic effects as hundreds of small funds make the size of a few LTCMs in terms of their common deleveraging and selling assets in illiquid markets (as the Wednesday equity meltdown showed); the rising troubles of many insurance companies; a slow motion refinancing and insolvency crisis for many toxic LBOs once covenant-lite clauses and PIK toggles effects fizzle out; the risk that other systemically important financial institutions are insolvent and in need of expensive rescue programs while the $250 bn of recap of banks is way insufficient to deal with their needs; the ongoing process of deleveraging in illiquid financial markets that will continue the vicious circle of falling asset prices, margin calls, further deleveraging and further sales in illiquid markets that continues the cascading fall in asset prices; further downside risks to housing and to home prices pushing over 20 million households into negative equity by 2009; the risk that some significant emerging market economies and some advanced ones too (Iceland) will experience a severe financial crisis.
We're nowhere near done with this mess. Nowhere near.

BarNeo-ConBama

Card-carrying neo-con Ken Adelman is voting for Barack Obama, his first ever vote for a Democrat for President.

Why so, since my views align a lot more with McCain’s than with Obama’s? And since I truly dread the notion of a Democratic president, Democratic House, and hugely Democratic Senate?

Primarily for two reasons, those of temperament and of judgment.

When the economic crisis broke, I found John McCain bouncing all over the place. In those first few crisis days, he was impetuous, inconsistent, and imprudent; ending up just plain weird. Having worked with Ronald Reagan for seven years, and been with him in his critical three summits with Gorbachev, I’ve concluded that that’s no way a president can act under pressure.

Second is judgment. The most important decision John McCain made in his long campaign was deciding on a running mate.

That decision showed appalling lack of judgment. Not only is Sarah Palin not close to being acceptable in high office—I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency. But that selection contradicted McCain’s main two, and best two, themes for his campaign—Country First, and experience counts. Neither can he credibly claim, post-Palin pick.

I sure hope Obama is more open, centrist, sensible—dare I say, Clintonesque—than his liberal record indicates, than his cooperation with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid portends. If not, I will be even more startled by my vote than I am now.

If THAT doesn't raise alarm bells about Obama's foreign policy, the fact that neo-cons are to the point where they are starting to publicly align themselves with Obama, and the fact they are expecting him to be "Clintonesque" (think Bosnia and Somalia), should scare the crap out of you.

If you think Obama will get us out of the quagmire, you need your head examined. Not going to happen. At best Iraq goes on the back-burner for a massive expansion of the war in Afghanistan and most likely into Pakistan as well.

We'll have a whole new quagmire to play with, and you're equally demented if you think Obama will have any more luck "capturing bin Laden."

Anyone bother to stop to wonder what he has in store for the Defense budget?

Not me. Take the one we have and make it bigger. Foreign policy under Obama won't be any different, other than which Muslim country we invade. It might be more competent. I doubt it will be.

StupidiNews!

Monday, October 20, 2008

Bribing Americans With Their Own Money

The Dems have been pushing another stimulus package, and today Helicopter Ben threw his weight behind more outright bribery of the American public.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Monday that another wave of government spending may be needed as the economy limps through what could be an extended period of subpar growth.

"With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate," Bernanke told a congressional panel.

It was the first time the central bank chairman had explicitly endorsed a second stimulus package. The government sent out about $100 billion in tax rebate checks over the summer to try to jump-start the economy, but consumer spending has struggled since then. Retail sales fell for three consecutive months through September.

The White House also appeared to be warming to the idea of another spending program. Spokeswoman Dana Perino said the Bush administration was "open" to a stimulus plan, depending on its makeup, and would look to Bernanke and others for guidance.

There's no way the White House can oppose this...not two weeks before the election. Well played by the Dems politically.

Of course, it was our money to begin with...

Somebody Explain This To Me

Why is Obama letting Colin Powell off the hook and giving this asshole a job?

Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell will be asked to serve as a White House adviser if Barack Obama is elected president, the Democratic nominee said today.

Mr Powell, a retired four-star general and widely-respected Republican, crossed party lines to back Mr Obama yesterday as he described his rival John McCain's campaign as petty and troubling.

The coveted endorsement will help Mr Obama tackle criticism that he is too inexperienced on foreign policy and military issues to become the 44th president of the United States.

Today, the 47-year-old Illinois senator said his high-profile supporter would have a key role in an Obama administration.

``He will have a role as one of my advisers,'' Mr Obama told NBC's Today show.

``He's already served in that function, even before he endorsed me.

``Whether he wants to take a formal role, whether that's a good fit for him, is something we'd have to discuss.''

Mr Obama also said he ``would love to have him at any stop'' on the campaign trail and added that Mr Powell has an ``open invitation'' to join him.

Once again this emphasizes my major problem with Obama: his foreign policy is in many ways just as bad as Bush/McSame. The fact that he's even considering Powell after his involvment in lying to the world about Saddam's "mobile chemical weapons labs" and being the worst SecState ever (yes, even worse than Condi Rice) means Obama should be measuring Powell for prosecution, not a goddamn job offer.

Colin Powell's endorsement is fine, if you consider an endorsement from a man with that much blood on his hands as a good thing. But there is no good reason for Obama to then turn around and say "Hey come join us."

Barry, we don't want the lying sack of crap. He's an albatross at best, he's using you to salvage his own reputation, and at worst, he's hoping you'll pardon him or something.

Tell him "thanks for the endorsement" and let him suffer out in the cold. He's responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands through the sins of cowardice and inaction. Why would anybody want him around Obama as an advisor?

Unless, surprise! Obama's foreign policy is really Bush's foreign policy, only with more talking before we fucking bomb civilians and create more terrorists.

The one thing that will not change is America's foreign policy. That's not change that Obama believes in, apparently.

Republicans Killed Fannie/Freddie Reform

...not the Democrats. In fact, Freddie Mac apparently forked over $2 million to a GOP consulting firm to scuttle the legislation.
Freddie Mac secretly paid a Republican consulting firm $2 million to kill legislation that would have regulated and trimmed the mortgage finance giant and its sister company, Fannie Mae, three years before the government took control to prevent their collapse.

In the cross hairs of the campaign carried out by DCI of Washington were Republican senators and a regulatory overhaul bill sponsored by Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. DCI's chief executive is Doug Goodyear, whom John McCain's campaign later hired to manage the GOP convention in September.

Freddie Mac's payments to DCI began shortly after the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee sent Hagel's bill to the then GOP-run Senate on July 28, 2005. All GOP members of the committee supported it; all Democrats opposed it.

In the midst of DCI's yearlong effort, Hagel and 25 other Republican senators pleaded unsuccessfully with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., to allow a vote.

"If effective regulatory reform legislation ... is not enacted this year, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system and the economy as a whole," the senators wrote in a letter that proved prescient.

Unknown to the senators, DCI was undermining support for the bill in a campaign targeting 17 Republican senators in 13 states, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press. The states and the senators targeted changed over time, but always stayed on the Republican side.

In the end, there was not enough Republican support for Hagel's bill to warrant bringing it up for a vote because Democrats also opposed it and the votes of some would be needed for passage. The measure died at the end of the 109th Congress.

McCain, R-Ariz., was not a target of the DCI campaign. He signed Hagel's letter and three weeks later signed on as a co-sponsor of the bill.

By the time McCain did so, however, DCI's effort had gone on for nine months and was on its way toward killing the bill.

Both sides still are responsible for the Fannie/Freddie meltdown, let's not forget that the Dems blocked the reform efforts from the beginning, but Hagel reform measures included the elimination of programs for minority homebuyers. It turns out the "free market" took care of these subprime targets all too well, the only reason Republicans were willing to add "regulation" to Fannie and Freddie were so they could shut out minority homebuyers from federal mortgage cash by cutting funding for low-income housing programs.

But the Republicans also turned on ANY notion of reforming Fannie and Freddie once the lobbyist money started flowing, and they were able to buy off both sides of the aisle too. The mortgage companies then stepped into the gap, and when the GOP saw how much money was being made, they quickly abandoned efforts to fix Fannie and Freddie.

Still, the fact that the GOP-led Congress wouldn't even let the measure up for a vote says something.

Credit Markets Finally Thawing Out

LIBOR rates dropped dramatically today, even the 1- month and 3-month rates dropped by a massive 43 basis points and 36 basis points respectively. That's nothing short of incredible. The TED spread dropped 36 basis points too. This actually is good news (short-term anyway), and will stoke a pretty significant rally in the next few days, especially if these numbers keep dropping at this pace.

But the base problem of the world housing depression remains. Third quarter will be a recessionary one, guaranteed, as will 4Q 2008 and most likely 1Q 2009. It could spread deep into 2009, depending on the new administration's first few moves in January. We're still looking at a long-term bear market here. The good times are over.

And it will get worse before it gets better. We've set a huge land mine with trillions in the bailout plans. When that liquidity shakes loose in the money markets -- and indications are that's thawing out now -- the other shoe drops.

Hyper-inflation. We've solved one problem by making the base problem worse. Yes, the housing collapse means massive deflation. But the massive bailout means massive inflation too. Which one will win out?

Best case scenario is that we've taken trillions in real estate values and equity and given them to banks...a transfer of wealth on an unprecedented scale. We've taken away trillions of American homeowner wealth...not that we had all that much to begin with, and given it to banks and the market by creating fiat money instead.

I'm voting for inflation. Lots of it. And very, very soon. The credit markets are thawing only to reveal the the long frozen inflation beast hidden under all that ice like Godzilla buried under the North Pole, and it's about to wake up and go on a rampage.

Obama's Job Creation Versus McSame's Spending Freeze

The debate raging on how to fix the economy is the government's role in all of this, whether or not we should increase spending right now, or sharply curtail it and cut taxes instead. Both plans will increase the deficit. That's the important thing to remember. McSame wants to cut the tax rate on corporations and businesses and deregulate health care coverage, but cut spending across the board. Obama wants to increase spending on health care and education, and cut taxes on the middle class, but raise taxes on the wealthy.

The first approach, McSame's, is best described by Digby: Neo-Hooverism.
I see that Donna Brazile signed up for neo-Hooverism on the Sunday chat shows this morning, seeking to constrain a potential Democratic Administration by suggesting we have to tighten our belts in the middle of a recession, which is nothing short of economic suicide. I can tell you that this is not a unanimous view inside the Democratic inner circle, based on what I experienced yesterday.

I was fortunate enough to see Bill Clinton at a small-group discussion in Century City for a group of entertainment industry professionals. This was not a campaign event, and indeed the President was somewhat constrained by campaign finance laws to really advocate for any candidate. But aside from Clinton announcing his preference for Gray's Anatomy and Boston Legal, what was most notable was his discussion of the hypothetical "first 100 days" for a new President. This is from my notes:

The next President is going to face much different challenges than what I faced in 1993, and he can't do the same things... he shouldn't try to fix the deficit right away, but he's going to have to stimulate the economy by paying for things that are useful... we have had too much risk and not enough legislation... we need a government strong enough to prevent the market from devouring itself... I was happy to see Senator Obama call for a moratorium on foreclosures, and we also need to do what we did in the 1930s by buying up these mortgages and giving homeowners the ability to stay in their homes, to minimize disruption and maximize confidence... so let's stimulate the economy, and give birth to a new economy based on old-fashioned financing and modern products. It cannot be based on finance.


Obviously Clinton is part of a different side of the Democratic Party than Senator Obama. But there's a significant amount of overlap, and to hear the President who ushered in deficit reduction and fiscal responsibility in the 1990s recognize very clearly the need for stimulus, in the areas of infrastructure, job creation and the new energy economy, makes me very much reassured and hopeful. And indeed, in the last debate Obama pushed back on the idea of reinstituting PAYGO during a time of recession. This idea of helping state and local governments, putting money into infrastructure and green energy and jobs is very much a part of Obama's stimulus policies. They need to be bigger, but there's no trace of neo-Hooverism there.
If McSame's approach is Neo-Hooverism, then the opposite is what we need. If both the Clinton and Obama wings of the Dems agree that stimulus spending and job creation, a sort of Neo-New Dealism, is the way to go, like Digby I've got hope.

But the GOP will do everything they can to stop it, as will the Village. Neither one of them is interested in seeing Government help people. They yell "Socialism!" even as the financial system gets trillions in taxpayer money redistributed to it, with the full intention of saying "OK, we got ours, we simply can't afford to help YOU poor schmucks now. You're on your own. You get to use the free market, and since you can't compete with us...you lose. Have a nice day."

On the other hand, we will have to eventually massivley restrain spending or massively raise taxes. Bush doubled our national debt in 8 years. We have no choice, America is still in hock to China and Saudi Arabia, not to mention held hostage by entitlement programs. Obama has decided to go with raising taxes for a bit, while McSame wants to cut spending.

We've gone with 30 years or so of cutting taxes. Didn't work...and spending exploded anyway. It's time for a different approach.

That is if the economic system doesn't fall apart. There's no guarantee that we're out of the worst of the crisis yet...we've just punted into an undetermined point in the future.

StupidiNews!

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Zandar's Thought Of the Day

Obama's going to need that $150 million plus whatever he gets down the stretch here. Every penny of it. Despite all the ads and the spending and the debate wins and the economy and the weaknesses of McSame/Palin/Preznitman/Nameless One...he still has to get 270 electoral votes, the GOP is pulling out all the sleaziest, most horrific garbage imaginable, and they have lost control over their Hatenstein's monster.

Everything I have seen so far has indicated to me that this may be the most turbulent two weeks America has seen in generations, and I have my doubts that this election will be over by November 4. Once again I believe this will go to the courts, I just don't know which state will be the margin, perhaps NC or Missouri or Ohio or Florida or even Colorado.

I just don't believe in the Obama getting 350-400 EV theory. It's going to be one state deciding this election again.

But which one?

Why Is It So Hard For The Democrats To Stop Cowering?

Digby once again brings us yet another example of Democrats pissing themselves with abject fear rather than realizing the American people are about to give them a complete mandate for real change.
On Stephanopoulos this morning:

Newt Gingrich: If Obama won and had a moderate House and a moderate Senate, he would probably be a moderate president. His temperament would lead him to be much more like Richard Daley than like Eeverend Wright. He's not gonna have that. he';s gonna have card check to take away your right to a secret ballot. He's going to have an effort to eliminate freedom of speech for Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. He's going to have a congress that wants to raise taxes, that wants to increase government --- is he really going to veto and fight with Pelosi and Reid? ... As the Wall Street Journal said on Friday, here is what their promising their allies they're going to do.

Donna Brazile: Yeah, but they're not in office Mr. Speaker. Senator Obama wil inherit a 10 trillion dollar deficit and he's going to have to put things on the table that perhaps many of us would not like to see a Democratic president put on the table in terms of cutting back on spending, freezing hiring and making some real tough decisions. So, I think he will be constrained by the deficit and also by the fact that we're still in two major wars.


That's a relief. No need for anyone to worry that Obama isn't going to govern like a Republican. Except, you know, Republicans are really unpopular.

Gingrich is playing for 2010, here, preparing his troops to run against the already unpopular congress. He's calling Obama a wimp for being unable to stand up to his crazed, radical base. It's a natural move for the Republicans.

But there is no excuse for Brazile to fall into the rhetorical fetal position and help him. My God, we are in the final two weeks of a presidential campaign which is taking place in the middle of an economic crisis and is this the best she can do? He gave her the perfect opening in the world --- "the Republicans are more worried about a non-existent free speech threat to multi-millionaires like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity than they are about the real threat to average Americans financial security. Obama is going to be dealing with real problems of average people and will do what it takes to get this country back on the right track after the Republicans drove it off the rails over the last eight years."
After a generation of Democrats cringing from the mere sight of the whip hand, they have a chance to take this country in a brand new direction...but they are still so afraid of the Right Wing Noise machine that they're still afraid to even try to resist.

Not all of them are. Obama's core team stands as testament to the power of belief. But the rest of the Washington Democratic apparatus is terrified that Contract With America II is going to come for them and put another 12-year lock on the House door. It hasn't occured to them that rolling over like dogs was what cost them in 1994, 1996, 1998 and 2000. Capitulation got us Bush in the White House for 8 years after that, a good 14 years of conservative bullshit that culminated in catastrophe after catastrophe, and yet like Stockholm Syndrome the Village Dems are petrified that they will offend their righg-wing overlords.

It's time to decide who we keep and who we toss overboard in November, folks. Village idiots? They get jettisoned first. Digby's brilliant summation:
No wonder Gingrich looked like a very fat cat with a mouthful of yellow feathers when she said that. He's winning even as he's losing.
Stop fearing them. Start fighting them. Look at what Obama is doing. Let him DO it. Help him DO it.

Not Even He Deserves This

Now, I have my problems with Colin Powell, but not even Colin Powell deserves to be called a racist by El Rushbo of all people.
Rush Limbaugh said Colin Powell's decision to get behind Barack Obama appeared to be very much tied to Obama's status as the first African-American with a chance to become president.

"Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race," Limbaugh wrote in an e-mail. "OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with."

As for Powell's statement of concern this morning about the sort of Supreme Court justices a President McCain might appoint, Limbaugh wrote: "I was also unaware of his dislike for John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia. I guess he also regrets Reagan and Bush making him a four-star [general] and secretary of state and appointing his son to head the FCC. Yes, let's hear it for transformational figures."
You'd better believe race is now front and center in this campaign for the GOP. They aren't even hiding it any more. Colin Powell is now Just Another Uppity Negro to them, and in a heartbeat he has gone from the poster boy for Big Tent Republicanism to a racist shill for Obama.

Not that Colin Powell doesn't deserve some time alone in the wildnerness with his sins when he DIDN'T stand up and do the right thing in 2002. Believe me, endorsing Obama doesn't begin to make up for his crimes.

But he's being burned at the stake for the wrong thing. Irony, Schadenfreude, call it what you will. I call it two wrongs don't make a right. Because I'm human, I do feel a bit sorry for the man.

Then I remember the fact he helped lie us into a war where we killed hundreds of thousands, and that was THIS war...not Vietnam. He still has to answer to the Gods Above And Below for My Lai, for example.

He's got nobody now. He has plenty of time for reflection, I'd imagine.

Perhaps Obama should offer him a position as Outreach Advisor To Black People Crazy Enough To Vote Republican. I know a few. If the GOP is willing to have El Rushbo crucify the man, no black person in the GOP is safe, or even above suspicion at this point.

But there you have it. We're now into full blown public racism territory here with 16 days to go.

[UPDATE] George Will equates Colin Powell to Al Sharpton, and basically accuses America of reverse racism.



Colin Powell is now as black as coal to the GOP. Absolution by public flogging by the right won't save him in my eyes, but again, that doesn't change the fact the GOP is now run and represented by racist, bigoted assholes.

In this case I think this is his way of receiving penance, scourging himself by way of public flogging by the right. Maybe he's trying to break with the administration and the GOP for good and this was the last straw.

But if that's the case, he's doing this for the benefit of Colin Powell, not Barack Obama. Which means he deserves no absolution.

You have to actually be sorry to be forgiven. He had years to make this break.

Too little. Far too late.

Another Link From Zandardad

Pop's a good man, sending me links to articles when he has time. Today's offering is a heads up on Andrew Sullivan's piece this morning on Sarah Palin, serial liar.

This is indeed odd. Here is Palin answering Hannity's question about her decision to accept the vice-presidency:

"It was a time of asking the girls to vote on it, anyway. And they voted unanimously, yes. Didn't bother asking my son because, you know, he's going to be off doing his thing anyway, so he wouldn't be so impacted by, at least, the campaign period here. So ask the girls what they thought and they're like, absolutely. Let's do this, mom."

But here's the official tick-tock of the announcement from McCain communications director Jill Hazelbaker on August 29:

"Later that morning, John McCain departed for Phoenix and Governor Palin departed with staff to Flagstaff, Arizona. Governor Palin, Kris Perry, Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter proceeded to the Manchester Inn and Conference Center in Middleton, Ohio. They were checked into the hotel as the Upton Family. While there, Governor Palin’s children, who had been told they were going to Ohio to celebrate their parents’ wedding anniversary, were told for the first time that their mother would be a nominee for Vice President of the United States of America."

In other words, Sarah Palin isn't telling the truth in a campaign where she's publicly calling Barack Obama a lying, terrorist pallin', un-American socialist.

And people wonder why McSame/Palin is losing this election.

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