Wednesday, October 22, 2008

As Your Sworn Enemy, We Have To Say We Like The Angry Old Guy

It seems our old friends in Al Qaeda would really, really like to see John McAngry in charge of the country after Bush, according to Matt Yglasias.

Interesting Associated Press report on al-Qaeda’s thinking about the upcoming election:

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if al-Qaida wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, al-Qaida will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

Now of course it would be silly for a voter to base his decision on a desire to spite al-Qaeda. The right thing to do is for everyone to reach an independent judgment about whose policies would best advance the public interest. This musing is, however, interesting:

“If al-Qaida carries out a big operation against American interests,” the message said, “this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaida. Al-Qaida then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”

There’s no telling what al-Qaeda is actually capable of doing at this point. But it’s well-known that al-Qaeda does try to influence western elections. We saw it with the Madrid bombings before the Spanish elections, and then we saw it with the October 2004 bin Laden tape that the CIA believes was designed to boost George W. Bush’s re-election fortunes. Al-Qaeda members will probably be able to come up with something to do between now and Election Day to help push things in the direction they prefer.

And that about wraps it up for the McSame campaign, I'm thinking. Even freaking Al Qaeda thinks McSame is a volcanic hothead whom they can manipulate into spending more blood and treasure in Iraq...after all we've already wasted trillions there, not to mention the thousands of American soldiers who were killed fighting a war with no real end in sight. They know McSame will continue Bush's wars...in fact they are counting on it so that they can continue to bankrupt us.

Let's look at what AQ has done: they have caused two recessions, tied us up in two wars, blown all our goodwill, and bankrupted us for a good five trillion plus, all done for the low low price of some martyrs, a couple of f'ckin box cutters, some fake IDs, a video camera, and internet access.

Can we all agree that we're being sandbagged now? Can we agree that McSame is just more Bush? Can we agree we need to ge the hell out of Iraq? Of course AQ wants McSame in charge, so they can give us enough outrage to hang ourselves with.

Our New Campaign Strategy Is Prayer

No, literally, that's Sarah Palin's solution to being 10 points down: not that Americans will do the right thing on November 4, but that God will.
In an interview posted online Wednesday, Sarah Palin told Dr. James Dobson of “Focus on the Family” that she is confident God will do “the right thing for America” on Nov. 4.

Dobson asked the vice presidential hopeful if she is concerned about John McCain’s sagging poll numbers, but Palin stressed that she was “not discouraged at all.”

“To me, it motivates us, makes us work that much harder,” she told the influential Christian leader, whose radio show reaches tens of millions of listeners daily. “And it also strengthens my faith because I know at the end of the day putting this in God’s hands, the right thing for America will be done, at the end of the day on Nov. 4.”

Dobson praised Palin's opposition to abortion rights, to which the governor affirmed that she is “hardcore pro-life.”

She said giving birth to her son Trig, who has Down syndrome, has given her the opportunity “to be walking the walk and not just talking the talk” in her long-standing opposition to abortion.

Dobson — who has never been warm to McCain — asked Palin if her “private conversations” with the Republican nominee had revealed a true commitment to the Republican party’s pro-life platform.

Palin assured Dobson: “John McCain is solidly there on those solid planks in our platform that build the right agenda for America.”

She also thanked her supporters — including Dobson, who said he and his wife were asking “for God’s intervention” on election day — for their prayers of support.

“It is that intercession that is so needed,” she said. “And so greatly appreciated. And I can feel it too, Dr. Dobson. I can feel the power of prayer, and that strength that is provided through our prayer warriors across this nation. And I so appreciate it.”

Yep, God will step in and save America from Barack Obama and the Democrats, she's sure of it.

McSame/Palin are literally down to "divine intervention" as a campaign strategy. Stop and think about that for a second, and what that means, about what Sarah Palain would do if given the chance to pull the levers of power.

It's not God influencing the GOP right now, it's the other guy.

Sarah Pay-lin

Sarah Palin, Alaska's super neato you betcha reformer maverick girl, has a bit of a problem with her own little finance scandal.
Gov. Sarah Palin charged the state for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited, and later amended expense reports to specify that they were on official business.

The charges included costs for hotel and commercial flights for three daughters to join Palin to watch their father in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the governor attended a five-hour conference and stayed with 17-year-old Bristol for five days and four nights in a luxury hotel.

In all, Palin has charged the state $21,012 for her three daughters' 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office in December 2006. She also has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls.

Alaska law does not specifically address expenses for a governor's children. The law allows for payment of expenses for anyone conducting official state business.

As governor, Palin justified having the state pay for the travel of her daughters -- Bristol, 17; Willow, 14; and Piper, 7 -- by noting on travel forms that the girls had been invited to attend or participate in events on the governor's schedule.

But some organizers of these events said they were surprised when the Palin children showed up uninvited, or said they agreed to a request by the governor to allow the children to attend.

Did I say finance scandal, singular? I meant scandals, plural.
Since her selection as John McCain's running mate, the Republican National Committee spent more than $150,000 on clothing and make-up for Gov. Sarah Palin, her husband, and even her infant son, it was reported on Tuesday evening.

That entertaining scoop -- which came by way of Politico -- sent almost immediate reverberations through the presidential race. A statement from McCain headquarters released hours after the article appeared bemoaned the triviality of the whole affair.

"With all of the important issues facing the country right now, it's remarkable that we're spending time talking about pantsuits and blouses," said spokesperson Tracey Schmitt. "It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign."

But even the most timid of Democrats are unlikely to heed this call for civility. For starters, the story has the potential to dampen enthusiasm among GOP activists and donors at a critical point in the presidential race. It also creates a huge PR headache for the McCain ticket as it seeks to make inroads among voters worried about the current economic crisis.

Mainly, however, Democrats (in this scenario) are not prone to forgiveness. After all, it was during this same campaign cycle that Republicans belittled the $400 haircut that former Sen. John Edwards had paid for with his own campaign money (the funds were later reimbursed). And yet, the comparison to that once-dominant news story is hardly close: if Edwards had gotten one of his legendary haircuts every singe week, it would still take him 7.2 years to spend what Palin had. Palin, in the end, had received the equivalent of $2,500 in clothes per day from places such as Saks Fifth Avenue (where RNC expenditures totaled nearly $50,000) and Neiman Marcus (where the governor had a $75,000 spree).

Petty and stupid? Sure. But let's remember Republicans are publicly accusing Democrats of being terrorist sympathizers, Socialists, Communists, they want them investigated for treason, and they accuse them of hating real Americans who believe in God.

The entire Republican Party has been reduced to petty and stupid.

StupidiNews!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

What's Next For Wall Street?

Another rate cut? Another round of bank credit injections? Something new and exciting?

How about white collar perp walks?
Investors and taxpayers angry about the government bailout of seemingly mismanaged financial firms can probably count on a wave of criminal indictments in the months ahead, say white collar crime experts.

“I think we're going to see some ‘perp’ walks,” says Columbia Law School Professor John Coffee, referring to the law enforcement practice of having the accused appear in public wearing handcuffs.

“I think its coming” says securities lawyer Jacob Zamansky, predicting the “outcry for culprits and scapegoats” will be met.

Zamansky, Coffee and others say the government is now busy investigating likely wrongdoing that took place at dozens of firms and that it is just a matter of time before it yields results. But crisis management is taking precedence.

“The government and the private sector are focused on bailing out the ship right now, and rightly so," says former SEC enforcement official Marvin G. Pickholz, now a partner at the New York law firm Duane Morris.

“I think most resources are being channeled toward solving the current crisis,” adds Harvey Pitt, who chaired the SEC during the government’s crackdown on accounting fraud at the beginning of the decade. "I think it will be months before any prosecutions occur, if at all."

I'm gonna have to go with "sooner" rather than "later." Bush especially is going to want to end his legacy on being populist.

The McSame Negative Attacks Aren't Working

The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll is a disaster for McSame.
With two weeks to go until Election Day, Obama now leads his Republican rival by 10 points among registered voters, 52 to 42 percent, up from 49 to 43 percent two weeks ago.

Obama’s current lead is also fueled by his strength among independent voters (topping McCain 49 to 37 percent), suburban voters (53 to 41), Catholics (50 to 44) and white women (49 to 45).

McSame is getting killed across the board. Obama is now ahead in PA, VA, and CO...meaning he can win without Florida or Ohio. So what's killing McSame? 3 things: the economy, nobody cares about Bill Ayers, and Sarah Palin's massive negative numbers.
That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

Pause and reflect on that...voters think Sarah Palin is now a larger problem for McSame than President Bush is.

He's done. 10 points with 2 weeks to go? Not going to happen.

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

I got a fiver says somebody on the GOP (not a blogger or El Rushbo, but an actual state/national GOP party official or McSame campaign official) denounces Obama's trip to Hawaii as:

  1. a campaign stunt to elicit sympathy,
  2. something that proves just how out of touch Obama is for being able to fly to Hawaii at a moment's notice,
  3. proof that Obama is using all that "suspect campaign money illegally for personal reasons",
  4. some combination of the above.
Just sayin.

More LIBOR Fun

LIBOR rates took another sharp decline this morning, the overnight rate is down to 1.58% and both the 1-month and 3-month rates fell 22 basis points. Granted, there's still a lot further to fall, but at least for now the credit emergency does appear to be over.

Now the next emergency begins. Hyper-inflation? Credit card defaults exploding? There are still plenty of shoes left to drop.
So there is now a growing chorus saying that the stock market has bottomed out, that is oversold and this is the time to buy. The problem is that all the possible good news about policy makers doing everything necessary to avoid a meltdown were already priced in the 10% jump in global equities on Monday while, from now on macro news, earnings news for financial and non-financial firms and additional surprises from systemically important components of the global financial system, will mostly surprise on the downside with considerable further downside risks to financial markets. These systemic financial risks include: a major surge in corporate defaults rates and fall in recovery rates as the recession becomes severe thus leading to a further widening of credit spreads; the risk of a CDS market blowout as corporate defaults start to spike; the collapse of hundreds of hedge funds that, while being small individually, will have systemic effects as hundreds of small funds make the size of a few LTCMs in terms of their common deleveraging and selling assets in illiquid markets (as the Wednesday equity meltdown showed); the rising troubles of many insurance companies; a slow motion refinancing and insolvency crisis for many toxic LBOs once covenant-lite clauses and PIK toggles effects fizzle out; the risk that other systemically important financial institutions are insolvent and in need of expensive rescue programs while the $250 bn of recap of banks is way insufficient to deal with their needs; the ongoing process of deleveraging in illiquid financial markets that will continue the vicious circle of falling asset prices, margin calls, further deleveraging and further sales in illiquid markets that continues the cascading fall in asset prices; further downside risks to housing and to home prices pushing over 20 million households into negative equity by 2009; the risk that some significant emerging market economies and some advanced ones too (Iceland) will experience a severe financial crisis.
We're nowhere near done with this mess. Nowhere near.

BarNeo-ConBama

Card-carrying neo-con Ken Adelman is voting for Barack Obama, his first ever vote for a Democrat for President.

Why so, since my views align a lot more with McCain’s than with Obama’s? And since I truly dread the notion of a Democratic president, Democratic House, and hugely Democratic Senate?

Primarily for two reasons, those of temperament and of judgment.

When the economic crisis broke, I found John McCain bouncing all over the place. In those first few crisis days, he was impetuous, inconsistent, and imprudent; ending up just plain weird. Having worked with Ronald Reagan for seven years, and been with him in his critical three summits with Gorbachev, I’ve concluded that that’s no way a president can act under pressure.

Second is judgment. The most important decision John McCain made in his long campaign was deciding on a running mate.

That decision showed appalling lack of judgment. Not only is Sarah Palin not close to being acceptable in high office—I would not have hired her for even a mid-level post in the arms-control agency. But that selection contradicted McCain’s main two, and best two, themes for his campaign—Country First, and experience counts. Neither can he credibly claim, post-Palin pick.

I sure hope Obama is more open, centrist, sensible—dare I say, Clintonesque—than his liberal record indicates, than his cooperation with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid portends. If not, I will be even more startled by my vote than I am now.

If THAT doesn't raise alarm bells about Obama's foreign policy, the fact that neo-cons are to the point where they are starting to publicly align themselves with Obama, and the fact they are expecting him to be "Clintonesque" (think Bosnia and Somalia), should scare the crap out of you.

If you think Obama will get us out of the quagmire, you need your head examined. Not going to happen. At best Iraq goes on the back-burner for a massive expansion of the war in Afghanistan and most likely into Pakistan as well.

We'll have a whole new quagmire to play with, and you're equally demented if you think Obama will have any more luck "capturing bin Laden."

Anyone bother to stop to wonder what he has in store for the Defense budget?

Not me. Take the one we have and make it bigger. Foreign policy under Obama won't be any different, other than which Muslim country we invade. It might be more competent. I doubt it will be.

StupidiNews!

Monday, October 20, 2008

Bribing Americans With Their Own Money

The Dems have been pushing another stimulus package, and today Helicopter Ben threw his weight behind more outright bribery of the American public.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Monday that another wave of government spending may be needed as the economy limps through what could be an extended period of subpar growth.

"With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate," Bernanke told a congressional panel.

It was the first time the central bank chairman had explicitly endorsed a second stimulus package. The government sent out about $100 billion in tax rebate checks over the summer to try to jump-start the economy, but consumer spending has struggled since then. Retail sales fell for three consecutive months through September.

The White House also appeared to be warming to the idea of another spending program. Spokeswoman Dana Perino said the Bush administration was "open" to a stimulus plan, depending on its makeup, and would look to Bernanke and others for guidance.

There's no way the White House can oppose this...not two weeks before the election. Well played by the Dems politically.

Of course, it was our money to begin with...

Somebody Explain This To Me

Why is Obama letting Colin Powell off the hook and giving this asshole a job?

Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell will be asked to serve as a White House adviser if Barack Obama is elected president, the Democratic nominee said today.

Mr Powell, a retired four-star general and widely-respected Republican, crossed party lines to back Mr Obama yesterday as he described his rival John McCain's campaign as petty and troubling.

The coveted endorsement will help Mr Obama tackle criticism that he is too inexperienced on foreign policy and military issues to become the 44th president of the United States.

Today, the 47-year-old Illinois senator said his high-profile supporter would have a key role in an Obama administration.

``He will have a role as one of my advisers,'' Mr Obama told NBC's Today show.

``He's already served in that function, even before he endorsed me.

``Whether he wants to take a formal role, whether that's a good fit for him, is something we'd have to discuss.''

Mr Obama also said he ``would love to have him at any stop'' on the campaign trail and added that Mr Powell has an ``open invitation'' to join him.

Once again this emphasizes my major problem with Obama: his foreign policy is in many ways just as bad as Bush/McSame. The fact that he's even considering Powell after his involvment in lying to the world about Saddam's "mobile chemical weapons labs" and being the worst SecState ever (yes, even worse than Condi Rice) means Obama should be measuring Powell for prosecution, not a goddamn job offer.

Colin Powell's endorsement is fine, if you consider an endorsement from a man with that much blood on his hands as a good thing. But there is no good reason for Obama to then turn around and say "Hey come join us."

Barry, we don't want the lying sack of crap. He's an albatross at best, he's using you to salvage his own reputation, and at worst, he's hoping you'll pardon him or something.

Tell him "thanks for the endorsement" and let him suffer out in the cold. He's responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands through the sins of cowardice and inaction. Why would anybody want him around Obama as an advisor?

Unless, surprise! Obama's foreign policy is really Bush's foreign policy, only with more talking before we fucking bomb civilians and create more terrorists.

The one thing that will not change is America's foreign policy. That's not change that Obama believes in, apparently.

Republicans Killed Fannie/Freddie Reform

...not the Democrats. In fact, Freddie Mac apparently forked over $2 million to a GOP consulting firm to scuttle the legislation.
Freddie Mac secretly paid a Republican consulting firm $2 million to kill legislation that would have regulated and trimmed the mortgage finance giant and its sister company, Fannie Mae, three years before the government took control to prevent their collapse.

In the cross hairs of the campaign carried out by DCI of Washington were Republican senators and a regulatory overhaul bill sponsored by Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb. DCI's chief executive is Doug Goodyear, whom John McCain's campaign later hired to manage the GOP convention in September.

Freddie Mac's payments to DCI began shortly after the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee sent Hagel's bill to the then GOP-run Senate on July 28, 2005. All GOP members of the committee supported it; all Democrats opposed it.

In the midst of DCI's yearlong effort, Hagel and 25 other Republican senators pleaded unsuccessfully with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., to allow a vote.

"If effective regulatory reform legislation ... is not enacted this year, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system and the economy as a whole," the senators wrote in a letter that proved prescient.

Unknown to the senators, DCI was undermining support for the bill in a campaign targeting 17 Republican senators in 13 states, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press. The states and the senators targeted changed over time, but always stayed on the Republican side.

In the end, there was not enough Republican support for Hagel's bill to warrant bringing it up for a vote because Democrats also opposed it and the votes of some would be needed for passage. The measure died at the end of the 109th Congress.

McCain, R-Ariz., was not a target of the DCI campaign. He signed Hagel's letter and three weeks later signed on as a co-sponsor of the bill.

By the time McCain did so, however, DCI's effort had gone on for nine months and was on its way toward killing the bill.

Both sides still are responsible for the Fannie/Freddie meltdown, let's not forget that the Dems blocked the reform efforts from the beginning, but Hagel reform measures included the elimination of programs for minority homebuyers. It turns out the "free market" took care of these subprime targets all too well, the only reason Republicans were willing to add "regulation" to Fannie and Freddie were so they could shut out minority homebuyers from federal mortgage cash by cutting funding for low-income housing programs.

But the Republicans also turned on ANY notion of reforming Fannie and Freddie once the lobbyist money started flowing, and they were able to buy off both sides of the aisle too. The mortgage companies then stepped into the gap, and when the GOP saw how much money was being made, they quickly abandoned efforts to fix Fannie and Freddie.

Still, the fact that the GOP-led Congress wouldn't even let the measure up for a vote says something.

Credit Markets Finally Thawing Out

LIBOR rates dropped dramatically today, even the 1- month and 3-month rates dropped by a massive 43 basis points and 36 basis points respectively. That's nothing short of incredible. The TED spread dropped 36 basis points too. This actually is good news (short-term anyway), and will stoke a pretty significant rally in the next few days, especially if these numbers keep dropping at this pace.

But the base problem of the world housing depression remains. Third quarter will be a recessionary one, guaranteed, as will 4Q 2008 and most likely 1Q 2009. It could spread deep into 2009, depending on the new administration's first few moves in January. We're still looking at a long-term bear market here. The good times are over.

And it will get worse before it gets better. We've set a huge land mine with trillions in the bailout plans. When that liquidity shakes loose in the money markets -- and indications are that's thawing out now -- the other shoe drops.

Hyper-inflation. We've solved one problem by making the base problem worse. Yes, the housing collapse means massive deflation. But the massive bailout means massive inflation too. Which one will win out?

Best case scenario is that we've taken trillions in real estate values and equity and given them to banks...a transfer of wealth on an unprecedented scale. We've taken away trillions of American homeowner wealth...not that we had all that much to begin with, and given it to banks and the market by creating fiat money instead.

I'm voting for inflation. Lots of it. And very, very soon. The credit markets are thawing only to reveal the the long frozen inflation beast hidden under all that ice like Godzilla buried under the North Pole, and it's about to wake up and go on a rampage.

Obama's Job Creation Versus McSame's Spending Freeze

The debate raging on how to fix the economy is the government's role in all of this, whether or not we should increase spending right now, or sharply curtail it and cut taxes instead. Both plans will increase the deficit. That's the important thing to remember. McSame wants to cut the tax rate on corporations and businesses and deregulate health care coverage, but cut spending across the board. Obama wants to increase spending on health care and education, and cut taxes on the middle class, but raise taxes on the wealthy.

The first approach, McSame's, is best described by Digby: Neo-Hooverism.
I see that Donna Brazile signed up for neo-Hooverism on the Sunday chat shows this morning, seeking to constrain a potential Democratic Administration by suggesting we have to tighten our belts in the middle of a recession, which is nothing short of economic suicide. I can tell you that this is not a unanimous view inside the Democratic inner circle, based on what I experienced yesterday.

I was fortunate enough to see Bill Clinton at a small-group discussion in Century City for a group of entertainment industry professionals. This was not a campaign event, and indeed the President was somewhat constrained by campaign finance laws to really advocate for any candidate. But aside from Clinton announcing his preference for Gray's Anatomy and Boston Legal, what was most notable was his discussion of the hypothetical "first 100 days" for a new President. This is from my notes:

The next President is going to face much different challenges than what I faced in 1993, and he can't do the same things... he shouldn't try to fix the deficit right away, but he's going to have to stimulate the economy by paying for things that are useful... we have had too much risk and not enough legislation... we need a government strong enough to prevent the market from devouring itself... I was happy to see Senator Obama call for a moratorium on foreclosures, and we also need to do what we did in the 1930s by buying up these mortgages and giving homeowners the ability to stay in their homes, to minimize disruption and maximize confidence... so let's stimulate the economy, and give birth to a new economy based on old-fashioned financing and modern products. It cannot be based on finance.


Obviously Clinton is part of a different side of the Democratic Party than Senator Obama. But there's a significant amount of overlap, and to hear the President who ushered in deficit reduction and fiscal responsibility in the 1990s recognize very clearly the need for stimulus, in the areas of infrastructure, job creation and the new energy economy, makes me very much reassured and hopeful. And indeed, in the last debate Obama pushed back on the idea of reinstituting PAYGO during a time of recession. This idea of helping state and local governments, putting money into infrastructure and green energy and jobs is very much a part of Obama's stimulus policies. They need to be bigger, but there's no trace of neo-Hooverism there.
If McSame's approach is Neo-Hooverism, then the opposite is what we need. If both the Clinton and Obama wings of the Dems agree that stimulus spending and job creation, a sort of Neo-New Dealism, is the way to go, like Digby I've got hope.

But the GOP will do everything they can to stop it, as will the Village. Neither one of them is interested in seeing Government help people. They yell "Socialism!" even as the financial system gets trillions in taxpayer money redistributed to it, with the full intention of saying "OK, we got ours, we simply can't afford to help YOU poor schmucks now. You're on your own. You get to use the free market, and since you can't compete with us...you lose. Have a nice day."

On the other hand, we will have to eventually massivley restrain spending or massively raise taxes. Bush doubled our national debt in 8 years. We have no choice, America is still in hock to China and Saudi Arabia, not to mention held hostage by entitlement programs. Obama has decided to go with raising taxes for a bit, while McSame wants to cut spending.

We've gone with 30 years or so of cutting taxes. Didn't work...and spending exploded anyway. It's time for a different approach.

That is if the economic system doesn't fall apart. There's no guarantee that we're out of the worst of the crisis yet...we've just punted into an undetermined point in the future.
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