Darn Good Conway

Not sure if this is the best plan of attack for Jack Conway, touting his credentials as an elected official (in this case this ad about his tenure as a strict law and order drug warrior as Kentucky's AG) given the country's anti-incumbent mood right now and Rand Paul's "outsider cred".

On the other hand, Kentucky is a state where Democrats run as relatively sane Reagan Republicans, and Republicans run as completely insane Ron Paul Libertarians.

Democratic nominee Jack Conway has a new ad in the Kentucky Senate race, touting the support of the state Fraternal Order of Police -- and declaring that he's "darn good" at his job as state Attorney General.

"Jack Conway is the chief law enforcement officer for Kentucky and a darn good one," says Calloway County Sheriff Bill Marcum. Notably, the ad also points to Conway's record in a major drug bust in the state, which nabbed 518 people. As the Conway camp's press release says: "Conway's record stands in stark contrast to that of opponent Rand Paul, who has come under fire for saying illegal drugs aren't a 'real pressing issue' in Kentucky."

Still, sticking Rand Paul on the "Let the states deal with meth labs and leave the Feds out of it" seems to actually be working for Conway.  We'll see.

Bully For You

The human capacity for justification is a truly amazing thing.  Seems Focus on the Family is worried that trying to help schools prevent bullies from harassing students over being gay is of course, turning kids gay.  Or something.

Candi Cushman, an education analyst for the James Dobson-founded group, told The Denver Post this weekend that gay rights advocates have inserted their agenda into anti-bullying efforts, at the expense of Christian values.

"We feel more and more that activists are being deceptive in using anti-bullying rhetoric to introduce their viewpoints, while the viewpoint of Christian students and parents are increasingly belittled," Cushman told the Post.

In an email to TPM, Cushman expanded her argument. "Listing certain categories creates a system ripe for reverse discrimination, sending the message that certain characteristics are more worthy of protection than others," she said.

Cushman's argument has two levels: first, she says anti-bullying efforts wrongly put the focus on the "characteristics of the victim" instead of the "wrong actions of the bullies." Second, she thinks that gay rights activists are using the whole issue to sneak their agenda into the nation's schools.

She denounced the Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN).

"In many cases, these politicized bullying policies are being used as tools to undermine parental rights," she said, "and censor or marginalize students and parents with differing viewpoints."

Look, it's hard enough being a teenager in this completely screwed up America we live in right now.  It was agonizing being different in the 80's and early 90's when I grew up, but I was just the tuba-playing nerdy fat kid who kept blowing the school test curves in science classes.  I was lucky, the school's AD was a good friend of my grandfather's and the soccer and wrestling coach lived a couple doors down from us, so people left me alone.  It's got to be full-scale war these days for anyone who has to deal with homosexuality on top of it all.

Now people are actually saying "Your campaign to stop bullies is really advocating your deviance"?  Really?  Trying to stop bullies is "undermining parental rights"?

What's the alternative?  Saying "Well son, I understand he beat the crap out of you, but really you're interfering with his right not to be around anyone who's gay.  You're making him uncomfortable" or something?  Really?

The advocation of bigotry is one thing.  Doing so and using school bullies as an excuse, giving the implication that some of the reasons they may have to attack students are justified, is entirely something else.  Or do we forget when school bullying over sexuality turns fatal?

Bridge too far, guys.

Enemies Both Foreign And Domestic (Mostly Domestic)

Our old friends the Minutemen are back in the news and they've got a new battle to fight:  American Muslims!

In an e-mail last week, the Minuteman PAC used an attack on Rep. Andre Carson (D-IN) to fundraise against his re-election campaign, referring to Carson as an "Islamist" who is "championing Islam, the Ground Zero Mosque and Sharia law in America!"

The release, sent out by political arm of the more-grassroots Minuteman Movement, also accused Carson of being funded by "terror-linked Islamists," and of having ties to Louis Farrakhan, who the release describes as "an extremist black Muslim who spews vile racial hatred and virulent anti-Semitism whenever he gets the chance!" It requests donations to help Minuteman PAC defeat Carson.

Carson, one of two Muslim representatives currently serving in Congress, has come out strongly in support of the proposed Islamic center near Ground Zero, asking: "Are we a country of laws and principles? Or are we a country who will be moved by the winds of emotion each and every time there are issues that come up to divert us from the true meaning and intent of the founding fathers?"

But the Minuteman PAC has also found a way to tie recent wave of Islamophobia to its raison d'être. One of the "projects" featured on its website is called "Third Jihad Watch," and a post about it describes how "nothing makes the U.S. more vulnerable to another 9-11 attack like open borders."

"The threat of terrorism has no borders," it says. "No one is safeguarded against the deadly threat that terrorism poses around the world."

It's getting tiresome.  I understand the root cause of the unrest in the country is the economy and much of this is misdirected and projected anger coming from those looking for anyone to scapegoat for America's unemployment situation.

But you have to admire the wingers, instead of directing anger at the banks that nearly wrecked out economy playing Big Casino games with trillions is CBOs and derivatives, we're going after Muslims instead.

Now the Minutemen want in on the action and they're going after Andre Carson because, of course, he has to be a terrorist if he's a Muslim.

It's depressing.

Too Little, Too Late

Obama did get around to mentioning another jobs initiative in the coming weeks in his Rose Garden speech yesterday.

"So, as Congress prepares to return to session, my economic team is hard at work in identifying additional measures that could make a difference in both promoting growth and hiring in the short term, and increasing our economy’s competitiveness in the long term. Steps like extending the tax cuts for the middle class that are set to expire this year. Redoubling our investment in clean energy and R&D. Rebuilding more of our infrastructure for the future. Further tax cuts to encourage businesses to put their capital to work creating jobs here in the United States. And I’ll be addressing these proposals in further detail in the days and weeks to come."

I'm sure he'll make a big show of shuffling money around.  He may even be able to scrape up $20 billion or so for some new initiatives before the election.  It's not going to be anywhere near large enough to help.

At this point Obama needs to go for broke with a major brand new stimulus package.  No, it will not get passed.  Let it be on the Republicans for blocking it weeks before an election on the economy.  At this point the House is lost and the Senate is all but gone depending on who you ask.  Exactly what does Obama lose politically by trying to pull out all the stops here?  Conventional wisdom is that he's doomed anyway.

As Booman said, make the election the Obama stimulus package against Republicans doing nothing.  Go down swinging at least.

Limit Break

So how's that massive IMF-backed European bailout of Greece going, anyway?  Surely everything's fine, right?

Back in April, when we discussed the inception of the IMF's then brand new New Arrangement to Borrow (NAB) $500 billion credit facility, we asked rhetorically, "If the IMF believes that over half a trillion in short-term funding is needed imminently, is all hell about to break loose." A month later the question was answered, as Greece lay smoldering in the ashes of insolvency, and the developed world was on the hook for almost a trillion bucks to make sure the tattered eurozone remained in one piece (leading to such grotesque abortions as Ireland, whose cost of debt is approaching 6%, funding Greek debt at 5%). Well, if that was the proverbial canary in the coalmine, today the entire flock just keeled over and died: today the IMF announced it "expanded and enhanced its lending tools to help contain the occurrence of financial crises." As a result, the IMF has as of today extended the duration of its existing Flexible Credit Line (FCL) to two years, concurrently removing the borrowing cap on this facility, which previously stood at 1000 percent of a member’s IMF quota, in essence making the FCL a limitless credit facility, to be used to rescue whomever, at the sole discretion of the IMF's overlords. Additionally, as the FCL has some make believe acceptance criteria (and with countries such as Poland, Columbia, and Mexico having had access to it, these must certainly be sky high), the IMF is introducing a brand new credit facility, the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL), which will be geared for members with "sound policies [which just happen to need an unlimited source of rescue funding] who nevertheless may not meet the FCL’s high qualification requirements." In other words everyone. In yet other words, the IMF as of today, has a limitless facility to bail out anyone in the world, without a maximum bound in how much is lendable. One wonders who would be stupid enough to take advantage of the gullibility of IMF's biggest backers (the US), to borrow an infinite amount of money for any reason whatsoever... And just what all this means for the imminent explosion of the amount of money in circulation...Not to mention the brand new Ben Bernanke smokescreen of having a new justification to print a few trillion dollars when Europe unexpectedly collapses yet again.

Oh.  Well then.  That explains it.   Limitless borrowing from the IMF to prevent any sort of sovereign debt crisis, eh?  Gosh, that's not a huge flashing red alert signal about where Europe is heading or anything.

In The Absence Of A Clear Message...

...misinformation fills the vacuum.

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats -- one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

The stark reality is if voting patterns hold true to these numbers, the House is lost to the Democrats and the Senate is all but gone.  The Dems were up six points just six weeks ago...and then the bottom fell out.  Booman at least has an idea or two.

Rather than looking helpless, the administration should just start making the argument that we have a choice between prolonged high unemployment or another big stimulus package. Make the election a referendum on that choice. 

While he's right, this is the argument that should have been made, oh, six to nine months ago.  Given what I expect to happen economically for the rest of the year, there's really not anything Obama can say that won't be met by voters with an avalanche of complete indifference.

Americans are tired, depressed, and for the most part they're looking elsewhere for a message of hope.  In the absence of a clear message from the Democrats, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and John Boehner have filled the void over the last month.

We see where that has gotten the Democrats in this country:  up against a wall where Obama's critics believe he is the greatest threat to the country ever conceived and that he must be removed, and Obama's supporters really don't give a damn anymore.

Exciting New Horizons In Obama Derangement Syndrome

A new Newsweek magazine poll contains what would be shocking results about what Republicans think about Barack Obama, but by this point I don't think anyone's shocked at the depth and breadth of the pure hatred GOP voters have for the man.

The survey-takers asked:

Thinking about Barack Obama and what he has said about issues like the proposal to build an Islamic cultural center and mosque a few blocks from the World Trade Center site in New York City… Do you think Obama favors the interests of Muslim Americans over other groups of Americans, or do you think he has generally been even-handed?

A clear majority of Republicans, 59 percent, said President Obama favors Muslim interests over everyone else. By contrast, just 9 percent of Democrats felt that way.
Then, questioners asked:

Some people have alleged that Barack Obama sympathizes with the goals of Islamic fundamentalists who want to impose Islamic law around the world. From what you know about Obama, what is your opinion of these allegations?

Shockingly, 52 percent of Republicans answered "definitely true" or "probably true," compared to 27 percent of independent voters and 17 percent of Democrats.

Yeah, that's right:  a majority of Republicans think Obama wants to impose Sharia law around the world.  That's insanity, mass delusion on a staggering scale, and yet among Republicans it is now the majority belief, the definition of mainstream Republicanism.

I can't think of why this is happening save that A) hard-core Republicans will believe anything talk-radio says, and that B) just as I believe "Obama is a Muslim" is a dog-whistle euphemism for race, "Obama supports Sharia law" is a euphemism for reparations and vengeance for America's bloody history of enslavement.

There are millions of folks out there who honestly believe that Obama is trying to destroy the economy and the country out of revenge for slavery.  All this paranoid shuddering, playing the victim card again and again, the belief that Obama is a traitor to America and not even American himself, it all stems from fears that Obama is the agent of vengeance for hundreds of years of slavery, segregation, Jim Crow laws, lynchings, you name it.

But hey, it's called Obama Derangement Syndrome for a reason.

StupidiNews!

• President Obama will give his second Oval Office speech tonight, this time to mark the end of combat operations in Iraq.
• An Illinois state legislator is pushing for not just high speed rail but 150+ mph bullet trains along the Midwest.
• Alaska's Libertarian party has voted not to put Sen. Lisa Murkowski on their ticket should it come to that.
• Ireland's faltering economy is leaving behind empty hotels and financial ruin in the wake of its devastated tourism industry.
• Google is introducing its "Priority Inbox" feature for enterprise and home users of its Gmail service.

Last Call

Three words for you.  President.  John.  Bolton.

Asked if he gives any credit at all to the president for increasing drone attacks against terrorists in Pakistan and elsewhere, and tripling troop levels in Afghanistan – both moves that have upset his left flank – Bolton said they were moves the president was forced to take.

“Well, certainly he has done things that have been unexpected in Afghanistan and certain aspects of the War on Terrorism. I think those are steps he has taken because it has been impossible – even for him – to avoid taking them,” Bolton proffered. “For example, much of what he has done in terms of interrogation or Guantanamo Bay or aspects of the War on Terrorism are things that are driven either by the imperative of defending executive branch prerogatives under the Constitution or because he has come to realize that the Bush administration looked at a lot of alternatives and couldn’t find any. So it is not that he has done these things happily or willingly.”

Bolton has been unabashed in his view that military action will be necessary to stop Iranian nuclear proliferation. When asked whether he thinks that the president would ever order such strikes, Bolton said he couldn’t imagine it.

“I don’t see it. I just kind of think it is contrary to his ideological DNA. I’d love to be proven wrong and the future will tell. But I don’t see it,” he said.

One area Bolton has been particularly critical of the president’s foreign policy is in the president’s handling of the U.S-Israel relationship. He told TheDC that he thinks the president’s push for a peace process will not only not lead to peace, but will ultimately make an unstable region even more so.

Peace is war, and war is like peace, only with explosions and more awesome.  New tag :  John Bolton.

 

Walrus Man and Moose Lady in 2012!

Somehow I see all John Bolton tags automatically getting the Iran, Military Stupidity, Warren Terrah and Wingnut Stupidity tags as well.  Just a guess.

Score One For Science

Virginia's GOP Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, not only sued the government over "Obamacare" but also went after Penn State climatologist Dr. Michael Mann over his work at the University of Virginia, basically saying that since the official state position on climate change apparently is that it's a "fraud" and that at the time Dr. Mann was a state employee teaching at UVA, that the state was therefore entitled to sue him over a state grant, subpoenaing the records of Mann's tenure there.

Luckily a judge called Cuccinelli out and quashed the subpoena.

An Albemarle County Circuit Court judge has set aside a subpoena issued by Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to the University of Virginia seeking documents related to the work of climate scientist and former university professor Michael Mann.

Judge Paul M. Peatross Jr. ruled that Cuccinelli can investigate whether fraud has occurred in university grants, as the attorney general had contended, but ruled that Cuccinelli's subpoena failed to state a "reason to believe" that Mann had committed fraud.

The ruling is a major blow for Cuccinelli, a global warming skeptic who had maintained that he was investigating whether Mann committed fraud in seeking government money for research that showed that the earth has experienced a rapid, recent warming. Mann, now at Penn State University, worked at U-Va. until 2005.

According to Peatross, the Virginia Fraud Against Taxpayers Act, under which the civil investigative demand was issued, requires that the attorney general include an "objective basis" to believe that fraud has been committed. Peatross indicates that the attorney general must state the reason so that it can be reviewed by a court, which Cuccinelli failed to do.

Peatross set the subpoena aside without prejudice, meaning Cuccinelli could give the subpoena another try by rewriting the civil demand to better explain the conduct he wishes to investigate. But the judge seemed skeptical of Cuccinelli's underlying claim about Mann, noting that Cuccinelli's deputy maintained in a court hearing that the nature of Mann's fraud was described in subsequent court papers in the case.

"The Court has read with care those pages and understands the controversy regarding Dr. Mann's work on the issue of global warming. However, it is not clear what he did was misleading, false or fraudulent in obtaining funds from the Commonwealth of Virginia," Peatross wrote. 

Yeah.  Oops indeed.  Maybe the AG should quit wasting taxpayer money as a state employee on frivolous lawsuits before, you know, somebody sues him for fraud.

The Amazing Vanishing Unemployment Rate

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Robert Barro, the macroeconomics version of Brett Favre.

To get a rough quantitative estimate of the implications for the unemployment rate, suppose that the expansion of unemployment-insurance coverage to 99 weeks had not occurred and—I assume—the share of long-term unemployment had equaled the peak value of 24.5% observed in July 1983. Then, if the number of unemployed 26 weeks or less in June 2010 had still equaled the observed value of 7.9 million, the total number of unemployed would have been 10.4 million rather than 14.6 million. If the labor force still equaled the observed value (153.7 million), the unemployment rate would have been 6.8% rather than 9.5%.

Consider how the prospects for Democrats in the November elections would look if the unemployment rate were now only 6.8%. Obviously, this change would make all the difference, and President Obama can reasonably blame his economic advisers. They should have protected their boss by standing firm and arguing that a reckless expansion of unemployment-insurance coverage to 99 weeks was unwise economically and politically. Congressman Boehner's advice to Mr. Obama seems correct, though possibly too late to matter.

Yeah, consider how better off Obama would be if he was claiming, right now, that the number of people on long-term unemployment never would have exceeded 24.5% and therefore the unemployment rate can't be higher than 7%.

In other words, all the folks currently between 26 and 99 weeks of unemployment would either A) vanish from the labor force and not be counted as unemployed making the unemployment rate 6.8% or B) magically would have found jobs from the Magic Employment Fairy.

No really, this is coming from a famous Harvard economist.  It's awesome.

Wait'll Krugman finds out.  It'll be like 300, only with aggregate demand.

The Real Lesson Of Park51

People outside America now know that America's Constitution doesn't mean jack when it comes to Muslims, and that the real bad guys are using our bigotry as a recruiting tool.

"By preventing this mosque from being built, America is doing us a big favor," Taliban operative Zabihullah tells NEWSWEEK. (Like many Afghans, he uses a single name.) "It's providing us with more recruits, donations, and popular support."

America's enemies in Afghanistan are delighted by the vehement public opposition to the proposed "Ground Zero mosque." The backlash against the project has drawn the heaviest e-mail response ever on jihadi Web sites, Zabihullah claims -- far bigger even than France's ban on burqas earlier this year. (That was big, he recalls: "We received many e-mails asking for advice on how Muslims should react to the hijab ban, and how they can punish France.") This time the target is America itself. "We are getting even more messages of support and solidarity on the mosque issue and questions about how to fight back against this outrage."

Zabihullah also claims that the issue is such a propaganda windfall -- so tailor-made to show how "anti-Islamic" America is -- that it now heads the list of talking points in Taliban meetings with fighters, villagers, and potential recruits. "We talk about how America tortures with waterboarding, about the cruel confinement of Muslims in wire cages in Guantanamo, about the killing of innocent women and children in air attacks -- and now America gives us another gift with its street protests to prevent a mosque from being built in New York," Zabihullah says. "Showing reality always makes the best propaganda."

Mission accomplished, 70% of America against the "Ground Zero Mosque."  Keep up the good work!

Bonus lesson on Park51 and the crazy month of August:

"There is no doubt that the election season has had a major impact upon the nature of the discourse," Abdul Rauf said in an interview with Abu Dhabi's The National newspaper.

The imam said the issue was "not between Muslims and non-Muslims, but between moderates of all the faith traditions and the radicals of all the faith traditions."

You got that right.

In AD 2012 Moose Was Beginning

All your Palin are belong to us.

Two days after Sarah Palin fired up a large crowd at Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor rally in Washington, a newly released survey suggests a clear majority of Americans don't think the former vice presidential nominee has the right credentials to be president.


According to the new survey from Vanity Fair and CBS News' 60 Minutes, only 1 in 4 of all adults thinks Palin is qualified to be commander-in-chief while 60 percent say she is not.

By a narrow 47-40 percent margin however, Republicans do feel Palin has the right stuff to be president. But self identified conservatives – constituting the segment of the GOP largely thought to most favor the former Alaska governor – are essentially split 41-40 percent on her abilities to govern the country.

Dear Republican primary voters in 2012:  feel free to nominate Sarah Palin for President.  Do everything in your power to make that happen.  Go for it.

Please.  (For great justice.)

Because I really can't think of any better way to assure America four more years of Obama.

A Tax Credit Where Credit Is Due

Another homebuyer tax credit, that is.  Could the Obama administration throw an even larger tax credit our way, and this time for all Americans to benefit from, in order to be the defibrillator to the cardiac arrest the housing market is in?

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan, appearing on CNN's State of the Union this weekend, didn't rule out another tax credit. He did say it's "too early to say," but then added that "we're going to be focused like a laser on where the housing market is moving going forward, and we are going to go everywhere we can to make sure this market stabilizes and recovers."

After that several Congressional candidates in Florida threw their voices behind the possibility, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist then chimed in on the same show, saying that another tax credit, "would stimulate the economy. It would increase home sales in Florida." He finished with: "I would absolutely encourage the president to support that because it would certainly help my fellow Floridians."

Or should we let the patient go under and liquidate what's left?  Hmm, there's that argument again:  stimulation versus liquidation.  Funny how it's always big business on the side of liquidation and letting the chips fall where they will...

Austerity Hysteria, Meet Liquidation Nation

Add mega-billionaire Jim Rogers to the list of folks who say -- surprise! -- the US needs European austerity measures now!

"I'd rather have the Europeans running the U.S. central bank than the people running the U.S. central bank, least they know how to try to build for the future," Rogers told CNBC Monday.
“In America, Bernanke just says we'll print more money, we'll spend more money, even though the United States is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world."

Rogers reiterated that economies in trouble should be allowed to go under, like bad companies.

"The things that have worked in the past... will be you go bankrupt then you re-organize and you start over. You have a painful period for awhile, and then you start over. This has been done in the past 3 or 4 thousand years, and that's the way you do it," said Rogers.

"Trying to push the problem out to the future, and printing money, we just had another example here in the U.S., it didn't work and it's not going to work."

Rogers said that with central banks "flooding the world with money", the only place to invest right now is in real assets, whether it's in "silver, or rice or natural gas".

"Paper money is not going to do it for you," he added.

Lemme translate for you.

Who benefits if the US economy is forced to sell off real assets like failed, bankrupt businesses at fire-sale prices?

Who benefits if there's a rush from cash to commodities like "silver, or rice or natural gas"?

Who benefits if the major problem becomes a serious lack of liquidity and having the bulk of your real wealth tied up in, say, your mortgage?

Why, that would be the guys with heavy investments in commodities and lots of liquidity to spare because they are a billionaire investment guru, like, oh I dunno, this Jim Rogers fellow.

Just sayin'.