Invasion Of The Centrist Daleks

The "sensible center" of the Dems, think tank Third Way, is ready to make Obama triangulate by any means necessary, apparently.

The group has spent months preparing to capitalize on this moment and take a more central role in the party.

And it’s coming down squarely on the side of centrism — and planning to vigorously challenge the left.

“The party is about to come to a major fork in the road,” said Jonathan Cowan, Third Way’s president. “A left turn at this juncture is a turn toward permanent minority status.”

Hey firebaggers? Here's your bad guy, not Obama.

The group is commissioning a post-election poll, to go into the field Wednesday, which will explore why people who voted to elect Obama president in 2008 either backed Republicans or stayed home Tuesday. A sample of 500 “flippers” and 500 “droppers” will be questioned about what they want to see from Democrats going forward. The results are due next week.

In addition, the group’s fellows and policy advisers will start rolling out memos and studies that offer a framework for how Democrats could reach common ground with Republicans. The economic team is developing a proposal that it thinks could win bipartisan support. It includes tort reform and incentives for research and development. And Cowan’s writing a paper with a colleague about “the danger of left-wing economic populism.”

With cap and trade effectively dead in a Republican House, Third Way will release a “Plan B” for energy reform. On Dec. 7, it’s hosting a summit on nuclear energy — one of the group’s big causes — with Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Obama energy czar Carol Browner.

It will come out with a paper on the need for changes that could save Social Security, which it presents as a direct challenge to economist Paul Krugman, a New York Times columnist who has said Obama didn’t go far enough with the stimulus and other programs.

And the group will advocate for education reform that focuses on middle-class, not low-income, schools. Third Way is also pushing for more trade agreements and a new approach to immigration.

Let's be honest here. These guys want to make Obama into a moderate Republican with Social Security reforms cuts for younger Americans, education reforms cuts, alternative energy reforms cuts, and working with surrendering to Republicans, everything they figure they need to get baby boomers back into the Democratic fold.

If you think that'll fool anybody, I'm sure the Republicans are counting on your vote.

Compromising Position

If anyone still at this late hour is convinced that House Republicans have any intention of working with President Obama to solve America's problems, allow Dan Benishek of Michigan to disabuse of the notion.  Here's his commercial against Bart Stupak of MI-1:



Any questions on that whole "work together to help the American people" thing?

You're So Vain, You Probably Think This Moose's About You

Would someone care to explain to me why this election is supposedly really about a woman who lost in 2008, quit in 2009, and isn't on the ballot or in office in 2010?

“There is a determined, focused establishment effort ... to find a candidate we can coalesce around who can beat Sarah Palin,” said one source.

“We believe she could get the nomination, but Barack Obama would crush her.”

Speaking on Fox News, where she is employed as an analyst, Mrs Palin said: “This is a joke to have unnamed sources tearing somebody apart limb by limb.

“If they would man up and if they would, you know, make these claims against me then I can debate them, I can talk about it, but to me they’re making stuff up again.”

She continued: “I don’t think the paper that we just printed this article on, you know, it’s not worth even wrapping my King Salmon in. I’ll just ignore this crap.”

Earlier, she called KTVA television station in Alaska “corrupt bastards” after a recording emerged in which reporters were purportedly discussing how to sabotage the Senate campaign of Joe Miller, the Tea Party candidate backed by Mrs Palin.

“I can’t wait until it busts out all over the nation to show what it is that we, kind of what I put up with for two years now with the media,” she said. 

Do we not have more serious things to worry about here in 2010 other than Sarah Palin's obviously bruised ego, people?

Geez.

The Sixteen Percent Solution

Sixteen percent:  that's Nate Silver's final odds of the Dems keeping the House.

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms.

Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model.

However, the same factors that could provide Republicans with extraordinarily large gains if their turnout is strong tomorrow could also cut against them if Democrats turn out in greater numbers than expected, or if the polling has underestimated the Democrats’ standing.

It's that last caveat that I think will break in the Dems favor in a lot of close races.  Yes, a lot of seats are in play, 100+ by some counts.  The odds of the GOP taking all 100 of them are slim to none, but if the polls are underestimating the Dems, it could be a very shocking night.  Nate also has his reasons to believe the Dems may survive this mess and it's worth a read.  He concludes:

The case that Democrats could do better than expected — not well, by any means, merely better than expected — rests a little more in the realm of what artists call negative space: not what there is, but in what there isn’t. There aren’t 50, or even more than about 25, districts in which Republican candidates are unambiguous favorites. There isn’t agreement among pollsters about how the enthusiasm gap is liable to manifest itself. There isn’t any one poll or one forecasting method that is clairvoyant, or that hasn’t made some pretty significant errors in the past.

Instead, the case for Democrats is basically: yes, the news is bad, it just isn’t exactly as bad as you think, or at least we can’t be sure that it is. This isn’t a sexy argument to make.

Nor, probably, will it turn out to be the correct one; more likely than not, Republicans will indeed win the House, and will do so by a significant margin. But just as Republicans could beat the consensus, Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do.

Not a lot to hang your hat on as a Dem, but there are legitimate ways the Dems can hold the House, just as there are legitimate ways the Republicans could have the best midterm in a century.

Vote.  I did.  I live in freaking Kentucky.  Odds are pretty good you live in a state with somewhat better prospects for the Democrats.

Other Propositions

It's not just candidates out there being decided on, but a number of propositions as well.  None is more controversial than California's Prop 19 legalizing marijuana, but that faces an uphill battle as California seniors are overwhelmingly against it by a nearly 3 to 1 margin.

Kevin Drum has a rundown of the rest of California's propositions this year.  The most interesting one is Prop 23, which would strike down the state's greenhouse gas emissions laws until the state was under 5.5% unemployment, effectively meaning never.

Prop 25 would allow California to pass a budget with a simple majority instead of requiring a 2/3rds majority, and given the state's hideous budget battles, I bet it passes.

On the other hand, Prop 26 would add the 23rds majority requirement on any local fee increases, and Prop 27 would eliminate all the state's redistricting reforms, so there's a lot at stake in the Golden State other than Mary Jane.

Remember, one out of seven of us live in California, so these propositions will have a major impact on the country as well.

Vote.  I'm heading out right now.

StupidiNews, Election Day Special!

Polls are open here in Kentucky folks, so as soon as I get done with this, I'm going to go take care of business.

• The San Francisco Giants claimed their first World Series since the team went West Coast, four games to one over the Texas Rangers.
• With the 9th Circuit granting a full stay on removing DADT, the policy will remain in place into 2011.
• California's law banning the sale of violent video games to minors goes before the Supreme Court.
• All eyes are on the Fed's expected decision to buy half a trillion dollars worth of treasuries tomorrow.
• Scientists have discovered there may be some basic differences in how men and women perceive pain based on spinal nerves.

So after you get done reading this, get out there and vote if you haven't already.

Last Call

This Tea-ranny of the majority stuff is getting serious.  Scott Rasmussen of Rassmussen Reports on the election:

Voters today want hope and change every bit as much as in 2008. But most have come to recognize that if we have to rely on politicians for the change, there is no hope. At the same time, Americans instinctively understand that if we can unleash the collective wisdom and entrepreneurial spirit of the American people, there are no limits to what we can accomplish.

In this environment, it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.

Elected politicians also should leave their ideological baggage behind because voters don't want to be governed from the left, the right, or even the center. They want someone in Washington who understands that the American people want to govern themselves.

And remember, Scotty here is a professional, serious pollster here basically justifying mob rule.  Ben Franklin had one for this situation too:  "A republic, if you can keep it."

Looks like we're about to cash ours in for some good old fashioned pitchforks and torches.

Vote tomorrow, folks.

Reality Check

Here's the kind of thing that shows what Dems are up against tomorrow.

Numerous Fox affiliates and an ABC affiliate are broadcasting a vicious 25-minute infomercial that accuses President Barack Obama of harboring "hostility" towards America and ties him to malicious rhetoric.


The ad, called "Breaking Point," was paid for by The National Republican Trust PAC, and since Friday has run in Iowa, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Its existence was highlighted by the liberal blog ThinkProgress, a project of the progressive thinktank, Center for American Progress.

It chides the "destructive ideology of leftist revolutionaries," refers to the president as a "socialist," and claims the views of Democrats are "far too extreme for Americans to accept."

"During the 2008 campaign, President Obama pretended to turn his back on some extremists from his past," the infomercial says. "You want freedom? You’re gonna have to kill some crackers! You gonna have to kill some of those babies."

It also accused President Obama of raising campaign cash from Hamas.

“During his presidential election, he wound up with a record-shattering $750 million in his campaign," the ad intones. "To this day he refuses to report from whence it came. One reason might be that some of it originated from the terrorist group Hamas, which also endorsed Obama.”

And thanks to the Supreme Court, the National Republican Trust PAC can get all the airplay out of this they can here tonight and tomorrow.  It's all complete garbage, but you're infringing on free speech if you refuse to air it, and plus the donors to this PAC are...wait for it...anonymous!

To recap, one side is saying "I know times are tough but we have a lot of work to do and we need your vote."  The other side is saying "President Obama wants to kill Whitey and takes Muslim terrorist cash!"

But I know, I know, "both sides are guilty", right?

Zandar's Thought Of The Day

Steve M. on tomorrow's likely scenario:

We're going to get trounced because the vast majority of people in the Democratic coalition are people who don't read political blogs all day and who watch CSI rather than Rachel Maddow. No one's given them a reason to feel hope, and no one's made a case they find persuasive for why they should remain patient -- not the administration, not the Democratic Party, and not us (our message doesn't even filter down to them indirectly, the way the right blogosphere's does to rank-and-file right-wingers, via Fox and talk radio). And we never laid the groundwork to make these people progressive Democrats, not just folks who happened to vote Democratic in 2006 and 2008. I think we just assumed they'd keep turning out, based on their demography and our expectation that they'd continue to loathe the GOP and admire Obama.

It doesn't work that way. The party and especially the White House needed to find a way to keep their hope alive over the past two bleak years; we needed to recognize the fact that they aren't us and therefore they don't instantly see what we see when we look at the right wing. They don't obsess over politics in general the way we do, so they don't grasp the very subtle arguments for why Obama's been at least a partial success.

I say this kind of thing all the time. I'm just saying it again because blaming people like ourselves for the enthusiasm gap is one more sign that we don't understand our own coalition, and thus one more reason we have such trouble preventing it from falling apart.

I'll go one step further.

If you voted for Obama two years ago and have since lost your job, home, or a loved one in Afghanistan or Iraq, why the hell should you get off your ass and pull the lever for anyone?  I can certainly see that.

I've laid out the reasons why over the last two years.  Now how do I compete with FOX News on that message?

Answer?  I don't.  When reality has a well known liberal bias, you win by simply creating a new reality.  Obama is a Muslim.  Obama raised your taxes.  The stimulus cost jobs.  Health care reform will destroy the country.  Obama is the most hated President ever.

The reward for doing the right thing is to lose.

So our country goes, straight to hell.  Hope the GOP can fix the economy, Foreclosuregate, too big to fail, currency wars with China and Europe, global warming, aftereffects of the Gulf oil disaster, Iran, Afghanistan, the budget, education, and everything else.  When they don't, will voters remove them from office in two years?

Doubt it.

The Coming Wrath Of The 99ers

More and more Americans are now starting to fall off the 99 week cliff, and right before the holidays too.  That has prompted at least one state, Indiana, to increase security at unemployment offices...just in case.

Armed security guards will be on hand at 36 unemployment offices around Indiana in what state officials said is a step to improve safety and make branch security more consistent.

No specific incidents prompted the action, Department of Workforce Development spokesman Marc Lotter told 6News' Norman Cox. 

Lotter said the agency is merely being cautious with the approach of an early-December deadline when thousands of Indiana residents could see their unemployment benefits end after exhausting the maximum 99 weeks provided through multiple federal extension periods.
"Given the upcoming expiration of the federal extensions and the increased stress on some of the unemployed, we thought added security would provide an extra level of protection for our employees and clients," he said.

Just in case, you see.  Tyler Durden says you'll see more of this nationally.

As America reaches its two year anniversary from the immediate economic collapse that followed the Lehman bankruptcy, punctuated mostly by vast and broad layoffs across every industry, arguably the most relevant topic that few are so far discussing is the expiration of full 99 weeks of maximum claims (EUC + Extended Benefits) for cohort after cohort of laid off Americans.

And since these people are certainly not finding jobs in the broader labor market (which continues to contract and thus make the unemployment percentage far better optically than the 10%+ where U-3 should be), their next natural response will be to get very angry at the teat that has suckled them for so long, and is now forcing them to go cold turkey.

Which is why we read with little surprise that now in Indiana, and soon everywhere else, unemployment offices are starting to add armed security guards. Of course, the official explanation if a benign one: "Armed security guards will be on hand at 36 unemployment offices around Indiana in what state officials said is a step to improve safety and make branch security more consistent." Why the need to improve safety all of a sudden? The 99 weeks cliff of course.

More people will fall off this cliff as we move ahead, meaning our economy will continue to crumble along with foreclosuregate home prices.  Putting the GOP in charge so they can concentrate on getting rid of Obama will surely help Bob in Evansville get a job after two years...

The Real Tea Party Victory

The real, long term win by the GOP will be the state races in a census year giving total GOP redistricting of the upper Midwest, turning them from battleground states to permanently red as MoJo's Nick Baumann reports.

Five states bordering the Great Lakes—Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are the central battleground in the fight to control redistricting. Sure, the Republicans might take back the House of Representatives on election night. But winning gubernatorial and state legislative races in these five states could allow the GOP to dominate the House for much longer than the next few years.

The Republicans now control four of the ten legislative chambers in the five states in question. They also hold the governor's office in Indiana. But after Tuesday's election, Republican governors could be running all five states—and the Dems could easily lose their grip on the six legislative chambers they control today.

That's a prospect that has national Democrats very worried. Carolyn Fiddler, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which aids Dems in state legislative races, says that she's seen maps that corral all of the Democrats in Ohio into just four districts—down from ten current Democratic-leaning districts. (Ohio is also set to lose two representatives in post-Census population adjustments.) GOP redistricters in Pennsylvania could easily cut that state's Dem delegation in half, Fiddler adds. That would mark a dramatic change from the current balance of 12 Dems to seven Republicans. (Pennsylvania is also likely to lose a seat.)

The result would be that the GOP could count on an extra 16-20 seat swing in their favor for holding the House, and midwest Dems would all be herded into one or two districts in a state, with Dems winning in those districts overwhelmingly, but the rest of the state would have easy GOP victories because all the urban vote would be in one place.

I woudn't put it past Ohio Republicans to create an I-71 corridor district to connect the urban centers of Cincy, Columbus and Cleveland and give it to Kucinich...and he'd literally be the only Dem in the state come 2012.

That's what's really at stake here, and that means the GOP will be able to keep the House for a long, long time.

Operation Dumbo Drop

I'll tell you what, Ben Smith's propaganda outfit is doing a hell of a job.

Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.

Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.

There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.

Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years.

Steve M.'s pessimistic to the point where the economy's so bad in 2012, even Palin can win when the economy is in shambles. He may be right. I personally think since Palin's entire raison d'etre is being a professional victim as politician, this is playing right into her hands.

The Republican political class clearly wants to disengage from the Tea Party in 2012 and win with a non-Moose Lady type, but they don't have a choice now, as Steven D. points out.

"A line has been crossed between all levels of government and the American people," said Angela Cox, president of the Johnson County Tea Party. "We are not shy when it comes to raising our voices when need be and also praising those and their actions that actually do the 'will' of the American people.

"We will be keeping a watchful eye on all in Congress and state legislatures and maintaining open communications with those that are smart enough to listen," she said. "Those who neglect the voice and opinion of the American people will be repaid with very short terms in office, and their political careers will quickly come to an end."

This is not an idle threat, as the remaining GOP centrists in the House found out. The handful of centrists left in the Senate will be purged in 2012.

So that brings us back to Ben Smith's game at Politico: Going after Palin pleases the political class, rallies the Tea Party Anger Machine, and drives traffic.

Three for three is a good night in anyone's book. it doesn't matter if Politico is right or not. Palin loves being a victim, the political class loves being elite, and Politico loves the traffic. Winners all around.

Except of course for the Dems, which is the larger point, and why this mummer's show of "GOP establishment versus Sarah Palin" will continue through 2012. The next election is already being framed as GOP versus Tea Party for control of the board, and the Dems don't even matter anymore.

Not even as enemies.

Turn On The Lights, Watch The Roaches Scatter, Part 35

In yet another sign of the times that we're back in the bad old days of 2008 heading towards another financial meltdown, monoline insurer Ambac is now 30 days from bankruptcy after missing its bond payment.

Ambac will miss an interest payment on its 7.5 percent of May 2023 notes that’s due today, according to a regulatory filing, which says the company has a 30-day grace period until a default is triggered and bondholders can accelerate full payment. “The company has been unable to raise additional capital as an alternative to seeking bankruptcy protection,” the filing said.

The bond insurer, based in New York, is seeking a prepackaged restructuring as it tries to preserve a $7 billion net operating loss tax benefit, according to the filing. The company’s ability to use the so-called tax carry forward would be limited if stock issued to debt holders in a bankruptcy filing causes shareholders owning 5 percent or more of the company’s stock to increase their ownership in the company by 50 percent or more.

In March, Wisconsin Insurance Commissioner Sean Dilweg seized $35 billion of Ambac’s risky mortgage-insurance policies and said he was splitting the insurance unit in two to segregate policies on which Ambac expects to pay significant claims. The move was needed to keep the company afloat and forestall an “uncontrollable scramble for assets” among policyholders and counterparties, Dilweg said.

Wisconsin insurance regulators released a report in May showing that Ambac’s losses on 18 collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, backed by mortgages would result in claims of as much as $8.7 billion. CDOs parcel fixed-income assets such as bonds or loans and slice them into new securities of varying risk intended to provide higher returns than other investments with the same rating. 

And as the housing market still has a long way to drop now due to Foreclosuregate all but stopping all transactions, there will be more bond monolines that get eaten by bankruptcy when their "assets" are revealed to be nothing more than  toxic CDO mortgage cole slaw, chopped up and repackaged for investment.

Those investments are all going rancid at once.

Stomp Out Loud

Tim "Headstomp" Profitt is facing a 4th degree misdemeanor assault charge, he could see 12 months in jail and a $500 fine.

A central Kentucky man who police said was videotaped stepping on a woman's head outside of a U.S. Senate debate on Monday night has been charged with misdemeanor assault.

Tim Profitt and other Rand Paul supporters were filmed restraining a woman attempting to give the Republican candidate a mock award, WLKY reported.

Profitt is set to go before a judge in Lexington next month on a fourth-degree assault charge.

The Paul campaign dropped 53-year-old Profitt as a coordinator in Bourbon County after the incident, WLKY reported.

My guess is Profitt gets off with a warning after a little suggestion by Rand Paul, who'll probably have Senator-Elect in front of his name by then.  Boys will be boys.

Thank You Readers

October was the best month ever here at ZVTS, twice our usual traffic last month as we approach election day!

Thanks to Crooks and Liars:, Balloon Juice, BooMan Tribune, and Memeorandum for the links in October, and the guys who've been with me since the beginning:  the always excellent TBogg, Yellow Dog and crew at They Gave Us a Republic, Kevin K and the Rumproast team, and a big thanks to Steve M. at No More Mister Nice Blog for letting me guest blog over at his place.

Special thanks too to Bon the Geek for joining me in this little endeavor.

But most of all, thanks to you, the readers, for sticking with me over the last two years and change.  We're still going to have a lot to talk about ahead...trust me.