Shutdown Countdown, Part 16

As the specter of a government shutdown looms, let's keep in perspective what the Democrats have done:  given up some $33 billion in spending, matching the GOP House Appropriations Committee and their original proposal some 2 months ago.  The problem is not the money.  It never was.  The problem is the Tea Party wants to punish everyone who does not believe as they do, and they are now willing to close the government indefinitely to do it.

Ezra Klein argues that we even know pretty much what the final 2010 funding deal will look like.

Eventually, a deal will be struck. It will either come in the next few hours, or after the federal government shuts down for some period of time. What makes the possibility of a shutdown so baffling is that we not only know what’s going to be in this deal, but approximately what it will look like. Here are the three elements:

1) the quantity of cuts, which most observers expect to fall between $33 billion and $40 billion when added to the $10 billion in cuts that have already passed;

2) the location of the cuts, which Republicans hope to concentrate in the 12 percent of the budget known as non-defense discretionary spending (here’s a useful guide to that category of spending), and which Democrats want to spread more widely across the federal budget;

3) the policy riders House Republicans attached to H.R.1, and in particular, the riders relating to abortion and the Environmental Protection Agency’s efforts to regulate carbon.

From talking to people involved in the negotiations, I’d say it’s a safe bet that the final deal will include about $35 billion in total cuts, a lot of which will come from non-defense discretionary spending but a fair amount of which won’t, and some sort of policy rider wherein Planned Parenthood can’t use the federal money it gets for abortions, but it can still receive federal money. This would be similar to the deal we saw on abortion funding in the health-care law.

To put that prospective package in context, the Republican leadership originally asked for $32 billion in cuts with no policy riders — they only upped their bid after conservatives in the House threatened to revolt. The deal they’re rejecting now far exceeds their opening bid — a very rare outcome in Washington. 

Ezra's nice about it.  I'm not.  The Dems have caved far enough that they have given the Republicans more than their original demands.  And considering the Republicans have already made their opening bid on 2012 that includes ending Medicare and destroying the social safety net in order to give a massive, multi-trillion dollar tax cut to the wealthiest Americans over the next decade, one has to wonder just how good of a deal the Republicans are going to get on next year's budget.

Yeah I know, it's getting close to firebagging territory here, but it's a legitimate question.  On the other hand, if the Democrats wanted to prove that the Republicans have no intent of negotiating in good faith, they've done a spectacular job in proving that as an absolute truth.  The Republicans are getting more than their original demands and saying no to the deal.  They cannot be considered rational at this point.

Keep that in mind today as they crawl towards putting hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work in this economy.

StupidiNews!

• Time is almost up for a deal to prevent a government shutdown, and while both sides are there on money, it's the social issues that Republicans are insisting need to be defunded or else.
• Corn futures have hit record highs on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, meaning Americans will be paying even more for food soon.
• Sesame Street is coming to Pakistan in order to educate children and try to prevent violence.
• As Germany turns away from nuclear power, Russian natural gas is looking to fill the country's energy gap.
• Facebook is taking on Google in the war for tech talent by open sourcing the design of their data centers.

Last Call

Turns out Donald Trump's birther nonsense path to the Presidency had but one weakness:

Bill Cosby!




Shove THAT Jell-O under your hairpiece, Trump.

To The Shores Of Tripoli, Part 9

Oh gosh, I am totally shocked and was not expecting this to come from the Pentagon, no sireee Bob.

The United States may consider sending troops into Libya with a possible international ground force that could aid the rebels, according to the general who led the military mission until NATO took over.

Army Gen. Carter Ham also told lawmakers Thursday that added American participation would not be ideal, and ground troops could erode the international coalition and make it more difficult to get Arab support for operations in Libya.

Ham said the operation was largely stalemated now and was more likely to remain that way since America has transferred control to NATO.

But...they said no ground force!

Right?

The use of an international ground force is a possible plan to bolster rebels fighting forces loyal to the Libyan leader, Ham said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Asked if the U.S. would provide troops, Ham said, "I suspect there might be some consideration of that. My personal view at this point would be that that's probably not the ideal circumstance, again for the regional reaction that having American boots on the ground would entail."

Jesus wept.  But you can bet we'll do it anyway.

Winning The Race To The Bottom On Race

Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling covers Magnolia State Republicans and makes some curious finds.

We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal. For the most part there aren't any huge divides in how voters view the candidates or who they support for the nomination based on their attitudes about interracial marriage but there are a few exceptions.

Palin's net favorability with folks who think interracial marriage should be illegal (+55 at 74/19) is 17 points higher than it is with folks who think interracial marriage should be legal (+38 at 64/26.) Meanwhile Romney's favorability numbers see the opposite trend. He's at +23 (53/30) with voters who think interracial marriage should be legal but 19 points worse at +4 (44/40) with those who think it should be illegal. Tells you something about the kinds of folks who like each of those candidates.

Yeah, this is more shark jumping into Rasmussen territory for Jensen and company, but...really?  46% of Mississippi Republicans think interracial marriage should be illegal in 2011?  Nearly half?  And those are the ones that are admitting it, meaning the real number is going to be higher.

Oh, and speaking of race...

That's enough dog whistle there from Lucianne Goldberg (mother of Jonah the Whale Goldberg) to pretty much shatter sheets of pure diamond.

You play Peoria to Peoria. You play Hazzard County to Hazzard County.

Shutdown Countdown, Part 15

Time's almost up on a government shutdown, and the Village is starting to move to "this in inevitable" mode.  I've given my reasons earlier today as to why I think a shutdown is not going to happen, but that is of course dependent on the Tea Party, not Orange Julius.  It's out of his hands now.

And it's looking like the Tea Party really does want to shut the government down over Planned Parenthood, NPR, and the EPA...hard-right social issues, not budgetary issues.  If that's the case, then Boehner has lost control completely, and the Tea Party is about 48 hours from completely wrecking the GOP.

Last night, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) appeared on Fox News to explain his uncompromising position over funding the federal government. At one point, Pence appeared to let the truth slip out about the true aims of Republican negotiators, telling host Greta Van Susteren that what Republicans are trying to do is score a victory for “the Republican people.” Soon after realizing that he said that out loud, he backtracked, saying that he wants to score a victory for “the American people,” not the Republican Party:

PENCE: Well, I don’t know if we’re checkmating. But we’re trying — we’re trying to score a victory for the Republican people, for — for the American — for the Republican people — trying to score a victory for the American people, not for the Republican Party. That victory is going to come in stages here.

A slip, maybe.  But one that reveals the truth:



It's a slip that you'll see played again and again if the government shutdown really does happen.  If the Tea Party is willing to shut the government down over women's health care, Car Talk, and air pollution quality, then they lose.  There's no way they can play the "well we don't belong to any one party" card anymore.  The Republicans also lose the "Bad cop, insane cop" game instantly, and Boehner and the GOP have been winning it handily since December.

A last minute deal here and Boehner escapes and moves on to the next battlefield of the debt ceiling fight with a massive advantage, where he can squeeze the Democrats for more and more.  But if it goes to a shutdown, his advantage disintegrates overnight.  And it's looking like Orange Julius has lost control of his party.

We'll see what happens.  I'm still counting on a last minute deal, and believe it or not all the Tea Party posturing that they want to shut the place down is making a deal even more likely in some respects.

But looking several moves down the chessboard, one has to ask what, if anything, the Dems will do other than cave.

Birthing Pains For The Next Generation

WASHINGTON – A new, ultra-fast wireless Internet network is threatening to overpower GPS signals across the U.S. and interfere with everything from airplanes to police cars to consumer navigation devices.

The problem stems from a recent government decision to let a Virginia company called LightSquared build a nationwide broadband network using airwaves next to those used for GPS. Manufacturers of GPS equipment warn that strong signals from the planned network could jam existing navigation systems.

A technical fix could be expensive — billions of dollars by one estimate — and there's no agreement on who should pay. Government officials pledge to block LightSquared from turning on its network as scheduled this year unless they receive assurances that GPS systems will still work.

It's time to make a choice.  What we choose now will affect the technology we build on for decades to come.  Ideally, compatibility will be on the minds of developers instead of competition.  If we are going to tear down walls and rebuild them, the time is now before we invest any more.  The problem is, there are a lot of questions about jurisdiction and precedence, and no obvious answers on the table.  Who gets to make these decisions, and who should oversee and be responsible for our data infrastructure?  The two interests that are fighting it out both have a fair interest in our future.  Instead of battling, cooperation will go a long way in making this work for everyone.

Excuse Me, There's Something In My Eye

While I sniffled all night after watching it, I had to share it.  Humanity at its best, from someone who fought enormous obstacles to save his family. If anything is going to redeem us as a species, this is the stuff from which salvation springs.

Two More Reasons Why There Won't Be A Shutdown

I've already given three reasons why I believe there won't be a shutdown back on Tuesday:  Wall Street, the fact that the Dems keep caving, and the fact that Boehner won't let the Tea Party take over.

Add two more to the list this morning, courtesy the latest Gallup poll:



So here we go:

4)  Americans are overwhelmingly against a shutdown, by some 25 points.  That's not even close.  The "will of the people" isn't to shut the government down.  Independents hate the idea by more than 2 to 1.  The Village would have you believe a shutdown would turn independents off to both parties.  A CNN poll taken last month finds similar numbers.  That brings us to...

5)  Only Tea Party Republicans want a shutdown, so they will be blamed.  And this is the big reason.  Boehner knows this.  When you have Michele Bachmann and friends saying "The Dems want to blame the Tea Party!" at a Tea Party rally where the people are chanting "Cut it or shut it!" then yes, Orange Julius knows exactly what's going to happen to him if the shutdown occurs.  1995 all over again.  Look back at that poll up there.  A majority of Republicans want to shut the government down, 51-44%.  Independents and Democrats do not by 30 plus points.  It will be blamed on the GOP.

So yes folks, once again I'm expecting a deal to be passed last minute and a shutdown avoided.  The Republicans are winning, and the only way they lose is if the Tea Party revolts and forces a shutdown.  That still could happen, but I doubt it.

Preparation H Is Back

H for "Hillary 2012" that is.  The only time Andrew Malcolm's Obama Derangement Syndrome factory at the LA Times is more Firebagtastic than when Malcolm is screaming at the President is when he has a guest conservative do it.

Hillary voters weren't swooned by Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries and many are abandoning him in public opinion surveys today. But are they mad enough to ride the elephant in 2012? 

Get out the saddle, because that's exactly what they did in 2010.

In the midterm elections, while it's true the Democrats were routed everywhere, they got especially creamed in states where Hillary did well. In House races, the Democrats lost four seats in Florida, six in New York, five in Ohio, four in Pennsylvania and three in Texas –- all states Hillary carried in the 2008 Democratic primaries. 

Meanwhile, the Democrats strengthened their hand in places that went heavily for Obama in 2008 –- with pickups in Hawaii, Delaware and the MSNBC prime-time lineup.

The lesson: Hillary voters aren't only willing to pull the plug on their fellow Democrats -– they're willing to yank it like they're starting a lawn mower.

While it's true the Clintons are ambitious people, they've never been known to go on suicide missions -– those are for terrorists and hotel chains willing to rent rooms to Charlie Sheen. 

Despite her contemporary denials, Hillary would only throw her hat in the ring if she thought she had a better than even chance at moving back into the White House. Obama is looking weak, but not weak enough to justify a primary challenge...yet.

If Libya turns into a full blown disaster...resulting in billions of dollars wasted, boots on the ground and abysmal public opinion numbers, my money is on Hillary resigning her post as secretary of State and jumping in the 2012 primary.

She can even rerun the "3 AM Phone Call" ad...with the tagline 'See, I told you so.'

This from radio knucklehead John Phillips, who wants to see Hillary run, because he believes the election is Obama's to lose, so you might as well nominate Sarah Palin and hope the country self-destructs badly enough that President Palin becomes a reality.

Not sure if he wants to see Hillary or Moose Lady in the White House more.  All he knows is, Obama is the worst everything ever and he needs to go, and that's all that matters when your job is ODS.

Birthers Get A Trump Card, Part 5

Donald Trump's plan to legitimize birtherism (and de-legitimize the President) continues unabated this week on the Today Show:

MEREDITH VIEIRA:
Do you think given all the issues that this country is facing that this is something that resonates with the public? That they care about this?
DONALD TRUMP:
The Constitution of the United States…great document. And you agree with it?
MEREDITH VIEIRA:
Yeah, sure.
DONALD TRUMP:
It says you have to be born in this country. Essential. Have to be born in this country, okay? If he wasn’t born in this country, he has conned the whole world.
MEREDITH VIEIRA:
But you’re saying it’s a con. That’s what you’re saying.
DONALD TRUMP:
I’m not saying anything. I’m saying--
MEREDITH VIEIRA:
Sure you are.
DONALD TRUMP:
I am saying I want to see the birth certificate. It’s very simple. I want to see the birth certificate. How come his own family doesn’t know which hospital he was born in? How come-- forget about birth certificates. Let’s say there’s no birth certificate. How come in the hospital itself, okay? This is one of the…in the hospital itself, there’s no records of his birth. In other words, it doesn’t say how much they paid, where is the doctor, here’s your room bill. You know, all the
MEREDITH VIEIRA:
You’ve been privy to all of this to know this?
DONALD TRUMP:
Well, I have people that actually have been studying it and they cannot believe what they’re talking.
MEREDITH VIEIRA:
You have people now out there searching-- I mean, in Hawaii?
DONALD TRUMP:
Absolutely. And they cannot believe what they’re finding. And I’m serious--

Yet, Donald Trump has basically bet his career on becoming a professional Birther.  But instead of being shunned by our "liberal media" who is "in the tank for Obama" Trump gets regular chances to say that Obama is conning the American people and keeps getting invited on TV again and again to peddle his own snake oil games.

Trump's not going away anytime soon, because our "liberal media" is more than happy to feed him on a regular basis.  He has yet to be challenged, nor will he be.

Remember, a vast majority of Republicans have doubts about Obama being a US citizen.  It makes it much easier to de-legitimize and demonize the man if he's portrayed as an evil con artist who tricked the good Real Americans out there.  Trump is playing this like a maestro, and he's doing so without his insanity being contested one iota.

And that's fine with the Republicans.  Look at New Hampshire.

The poll also found that among "birthers" and tea party Republicans, Trump fared even better, even surpassing the hands-down front-runner Mitt Romney with the group that believes Obama wasn't born in the U.S.

The poll also found that 42 percent of likely primary voters in New Hampshire do not believe Obama is a citizen, and among them Trump tops Romney 22-21 percent. In the wider cross-section of Republicans, Romney leads with 27 percent to Trump's 21 percent. 

Don't think Trump is a serious threat yet?  I do.  He's running on Obama Derangement Syndrome, and entire campaign built on a single massive lie.  And yet he's gaining on the GOP front-runners simply by giving into the far right-wing hatred of Obama.

Do not underestimate this hatred.  Nothing good will come of it.

StupidiNews!

• Defense Secretary Robert Gates made what observers say is most likely his last visit to Iraq before he retires this year.
• Senate Democrats fought back to stop an effort by Republicans to strip the EPA of regulating greenhouse gases.
• Some 24 states are fighting over the high-speed rail stimulus money that Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott rejected.
• Portugal will seek a $75 billion bailout from the EU as outgoing PM Jose Socrates declared the country had no other choice.
• Scientists are tackling the age old secrets of gravity, and one researcher argues that gravity is a result of thermodynamics.

Last Call

Bye, Glenny.

Fox News and Mercury Radio Arts, Glenn Beck’s production company, are proud to announce that they will work together to develop and produce a variety of television projects for air on the Fox News Channel as well as content for other platforms including Fox News’ digital properties. Glenn intends to transition off of his daily program, the third highest rated in all of cable news, later this year.

So "transition off" is the new "rightsizing" for FOX News.  Question is, where will he end up?  Maybe he's taking a cue from Olbermann...

An Oily Predicament

So, last week, Saudi Arabia continued to assure the world (and the US) that they could maintain oil export capacity to handle reduced OPEC exports from Libya in order to keep the world economy from flagging due to high oil prices, and to avoid another oil crash.

Two Saudi officials told Reuters on Tuesday that the extra rig activity would maintain rather than increase the kingdom's oil capacity. It completed a multi-year expansion in 2009 meant to boost spare capacity by more than 3 million barrels per day.

"It's not to expand capacity. It's to sustain current capacity on new fields and old fields that have been bottled up," one of the officials said.

State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco met leading oil service companies including Halliburton over the weekend to discuss plans to boost the country's rig count this year and next to 118, from around 92 now, Simmons & Co analyst Bill Herbert said on Monday.

Saudi Arabia increased its output to around 9 million bpd this month to help compensate for disruption of supply from fellow OPEC producer Libya.

That was last week.  This week, OPEC actually can't help with oil prices.

OPEC ministers on Wednesday brushed aside worries that inflated fuel prices will slow economic growth, saying there was little more they can do to rein in $120-a-barrel crude.

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussain al-Shahristani, a former oil minister, said OPEC had done all it could to calm the rally.

"All that OPEC can do is provide the market with the oil it needs and it is doing that," he told reporters at a Paris oil conference. "We have not seen any slowdown in growth."

Oil on Wednesday traded above $123 a barrel for Brent crude, its highest since August 2008, prompting another alarm call from the International Energy Agency, oil watchdog of the industrial economies.

"Oil at $120 or more has an effect on economic activity. We have seen similar levels during times of economic slowdown if not recession," its Deputy Director Richard Jones told Reuters in Dubai.

So, this should be fun.  OPEC is blaming speculators, the IMF is blaming Asian growth, and the world is blaming OPEC in return.  Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude is pushing $110 a barrel (and Brent Sea crude is pushing $125.)

Oiled up, indeed.

The Kroog Versus Cruelty And Wishful Thinking

Paul Krugman does not like Paul Ryan's budget, the way cops don't like naked arsonists running around elementary schools.

So Ryan is claiming that unemployment will plunge right away; that by 2015 it will be down to the levels at the peak of the 1990s boom (and far below anything achieved under the sainted Ronald Reagan); and that by 2021 it will be below 3 percent, a level we haven’t seen in more than half a century. Right.

Then there’s the Medicare business. According to the CBO analysis, a typical senior would end up spending more than twice as much of his or her own income on health care as under current law. As Dean Baker points out, this means that seniors would end up paying most of their income for health care. Again, right.

But in a way, the worst part isn’t the Medicare plan: it’s the fact — which so far has not penetrated the debate — that the biggest source of supposed savings in the plan isn’t actually health care, it’s an assumption that federal spending on everything except health and Social Security can somehow be squeezed, as a percent of GDP, to a small fraction of current levels.

And by "fraction" Ryan apparently means basically cutting discretionary spending in half, from 12% GDP to 6% of GDP, in 10 years...and continuing to shrink it.  (Or, keeping spending where it is and doubling the GDP in 10 years, but Ryan assumes only mildly fantastical GDP growth, so he just wants to slash everything.)

Either way, Ryan is full of crap.  Kroog calls him out.

That’s bigger than the assumed cut in health care spending relative to baseline; it accounts for all of the projected deficit reduction, since the alleged health savings are all used to finance tax cuts. And how is this supposed to be accomplished? Not explained.


This isn’t a serious proposal; it’s a strange combination of cruelty and insanely wishful thinking.

And that's the best summation of Republican economics I've heard in a very long time.  Cruelty and insanely wishful thinking, indeed.