Last Call

Tom Goldstein at SCOTUSBlog covers today's Supreme Court oral arguments on Prop 8, and where things go from here.

The Justices seem divided on the constitutionality of Proposition 8 on ideological lines, four to four – i.e., all the members other than Justice Kennedy.  For the more liberal members of the Court, there was no clarity on how broadly they would rule.

But Justice Kennedy seemed very unlikely to provide either side with the fifth vote needed to prevail.  He was deeply concerned with the wisdom of acting now when in his view the social science of the effects of same-sex marriage is uncertain because it is so new.  He also noted the doubts about the petitioners’ standing.  So his suggestion was that the case should be dismissed.

If those features of the oral argument hold up – and I think they will – then the Court’s ruling will take one of two forms.  First, a majority (the Chief Justice plus the liberal members of the Court) could decide that the petitioners lack standing.  That would vacate the Ninth Circuit’s decision but leave in place the district court decision invalidating Proposition 8.  Another case with different petitioners (perhaps a government official who did not want to administer a same-sex marriage) could come to the Supreme Court within two to three years, if the Justices were willing to hear it.

Second, the Court may dismiss the case because of an inability to reach a majority.   Justice Kennedy takes that view, and Justice Sotomayor indicated that she might join him.  Others on the left may agree.  That ruling would leave in place the Ninth Circuit’s decision.

(The puzzle will be what judgment the Court will enter if there are, for example, three votes to dismiss as improvidently granted, two to find no standing, three to reverse, and one to affirm.)

The upshot of either scenario is a modest step forward for gay rights advocates, but not a dramatic one.  The Court would stay its hand for some time for society to develop its views further.  But combined with a potentially significant ruling in the DOMA case being argued tomorrow, the Term will likely nonetheless end up as very significant to gay rights.

In other words, the court really seems to want to punt.  Both liberal and conservative justices appear to be saying that a narrow ruling that would only affect California is not in the cards, so a tie or a punt would effectively be SCOTUS getting a ruling that would only affect California without having to actually make it.

But the ruling on DOMA won't be as easy to duck, it being a federal law and all.  Still, SCOTUS could conceivably punt there too and say that a call this big has to be made by the people through the legislative and executive branches.

My gut feeling says they're ducking Prop 8 because the big money decision is on DOMA.  We'll see what the Justices have to say tomorrow.

Shot In The Back

Once again, the GOP (and my senator in particular) believe they know better then the overwhelming will of the 91% of Americans who support reasonable background check legislation.  They instead serve a tiny percentage of the the leadership of the NRA, itself less than 2% of the population in total.  Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee don't care:  they will block all firearms regulations regardless because FREEDOM.

Sens. Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Mike Lee are threatening to filibuster gun-control legislation, according to a letter they plan to hand-deliver to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s office on Tuesday.

“We will oppose the motion to proceed to any legislation that will serve as a vehicle for any additional gun restrictions,” the three conservatives wrote in a copy of the signed letter obtained by POLITICO.

In other words, they are confident they can block the measure, period.  They are confident you will let them, and that you will throw up your hands and say "It's Congress, what can you do?"

You can do a lot.

Sen. Ted Cruz's office is (202) 224-5922.
Sen. Rand Paul's office is (202) 224-4343.
Sen. Mike Lee's office is (202) 224-5444.

Especially if you live in Texas, Utah, or Kentucky (like myself) let them know just how many people support universal background checks for all gun sales.

Let then know.

Coming (Out) To America

Will Portman, son of Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman, explains his side of the story about coming out as gay through his father's change of heart on same-sex marriage.  Sure, it's political as hell and Democratic senators have politically convenient changes of heart too and appear to be coming out of the woodwork in Portman's wake, but the younger Portman lays out a good case.

I worried about how my friends back home would react when I told them I was gay. Would they stop hanging out with me? Would they tell me they were supportive, but then slowly distance themselves? And what about my friends at Yale, the “Gay Ivy”? Would they criticize me for not having come out earlier? Would they be able to understand my anxiety about all of this? I felt like I didn’t quite fit in with Yale or Cincinnati, or with gay or straight culture.

In February of freshman year, I decided to write a letter to my parents. I’d tried to come out to them in person over winter break but hadn’t been able to. So I found a cubicle in Bass Library one day and went to work. Once I had something I was satisfied with, I overnighted it to my parents and awaited a response.

They called as soon as they got the letter. They were surprised to learn I was gay, and full of questions, but absolutely rock-solid supportive. That was the beginning of the end of feeling ashamed about who I was.

I can't fault the guy.  It still take courage to come out, and the fact that Rob Portman, while a senator with many positions I vehemently disagree with, was and remains a supportive father for his gay son Will.  That's a point in his favor.

As Bon said last night, the pendulum is indeed swinging.  The question of same-sex marriage goes before the Supreme Court this week, with a ruling expected in both the California Prop 8 and federal DOMA cases in late June.

We'll see how fast and how far that arcing swing is in a matter on months.  More on the SCOTUS arguments later on tonight in Last Call.

StupidiNews!

• Italy's Supreme Court has ruled that American Amanda Knox must be retried for the crime of murder in the 2007 death of Meredith Kercher.
• The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today and tomorrow in two landmark same-sex marriage cases.
• The controversial George W. Bush Presidential Library is set to open to the public on May 1 at Texas's Southern Methodist University.
• The BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- are set to approve their own international development bank at a summit this week in Durban.
• A new study by the Federal Trade Commission finds that video game retailers have the best compliance records in keeping kids away from products rated for adults.

Last Call: Claire McCaskill Hits A Home Run

Claire McCaskill has gracefully and thoughtfully decided to support gay marriage.  We knew this time had to come, and it's finally here.  Let the GOP clown car stop, and the idiots unload.  The pendulum is swinging.  The sun of logic has broken through the clouds of stupidity.  Grab your bag of cliches and metaphors and pick one, the important thing is that change is coming.  And it's about damned time.

I have come to the conclusion that our government should not limit the right to marry based on who you love. While churches should never be required to conduct marriages outside of their religious beliefs, neither should the government tell people who they have a right to marry.

My views on this subject have changed over time, but as many of my gay and lesbian friends, colleagues and staff embrace long term committed relationships, I find myself unable to look them in the eye without honestly confronting this uncomfortable inequality. Supporting marriage equality for gay and lesbian couples is simply the right thing to do for our country, a country founded on the principals of liberty and equality.

That says it all.  It isn't complicated, and the people who have a reputation for intelligence can no longer fake a logic train that promotes discrimination.  It's that simple.  In a country where beliefs and freedom are respected, a shrieking clan of self-righteous nutjobs cannot make us forget that people can make personal choices.  Their bigotry is our legacy of shame, but I truly believe we have reached the tipping point where accountability trumps trendiness.

She doesn't just advocate justice for the LGBT population, however.  She points out that churches shouldn't have to act outside of their beliefs, while she also acknowledges that government should not regulate lawful personal decisions.  She reminds us that liberty and equality should be our default for all citizens, and that it is hard to look our gay friends in the eye while doing anything less than championing for their equality.   Her message holds up because it is truly about respect, for all sides and all people.  It never had to be an either / or solution.

That isn't to say it will be a smooth road, but we can see the progress.  On a larger scale, it seems reason is taking hold and common sense is returning to the land.  The Tea Party leftovers are ridiculed as they should have been all along, and people who want to appear rational are separating themselves from the GOP core values as fast as they can.  Meanwhile, those who frankly waited too long to speak are at least refusing to make their error worse.  Voices that were silent or dodging for way too long are finally coming out in support of freedom and choice.

Better late than never.  Well done, madam.

We've Been Here Before

House GOP intel chairman Mike Rogers of Michigan is one of the many House Republicans still in office after voting to put us in Iraq after assurances of weapons of mass destruction just waiting to be used by a vile dictator.  Now he wants to put us in Syria for the same reason.

You're an idiot and a fool if you believe him.

There's mounting evidence that over the last two years the Assad regime has used "at least a small quantity" of chemical weapons against rebel forces in Syria's raging civil war, House Intelligence Committee chair Mike Rogers, R-Mich., said today on "Face the Nation," adding that the time is now for U.S. intervention.

Amid debate over an alleged chemical weapons attack out of Syria last week, President Obama during a visit to Israel doubled down on his claim that such an attack would be considered a "game changer" for his administration, but qualified that it's important to find out "precisely whether or not this red line was crossed" before making a decision that could lead to an act of war.

"I think that it is abundantly clear that that red line has been crossed," Rogers said. "There is mounting evidence that it is probable that the Assad regime has used at least a small quantity of chemical weapons during the course of this conflict." 

Sure, just like Saddam is going to nuke the Kurds and has mobile weapons labs driving around the desert.  Why is anyone taking this guy seriously, or at least expressing that "Gosh Congressman Rogers, after the Iraq debacle that you voted for, shouldn't the bar for US troops on the ground in Syria be much higher than this?"

Rogers said Mr. Obama "can do this in a way that doesn't lure the United States into a big, boots-on-the-ground conflict." Intervention, he said, "doesn't mean 101st Airborne Division and ships; it means small groups with special capabilities reengaging the opposition, so we can vet them, train them, equip them so they can be an effective fighting force."

"The president went to the Middle East and said, 'This is a hard decision: If I go in, it might be wrong, if I don't go in it might be wrong,'" Rogers said. "Indecision, in this case, is dangerous."

This is true (as Libya proved) but the point still stands.  I still thought Libya was a bad idea, but we got in, got out, and cleaned up after Qaddafi and we were done with it once it happened.  We need an imminent reason to intervene militarily in Syria and even then I damn sure don't see a coalition of folks lining up like there was in Libya, and I'm guessing there's a reason why.

That imminent reason sure is hell not going to be legitimate coming from Mike Rogers.

Operation Cypriot Slip, Part 4

As I alluded to in this morning's StupidiNews, Cyprus got a last minute bailout deal from the ECB, but the cost is pretty steep.

The agreement came hours before a deadline to avert a collapse of the banking system in fraught negotiations between President Nicos Anastasiades and heads of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Swiftly endorsed by euro zone finance ministers, the plan will spare the Mediterranean island a financial meltdown by winding down the largely state-owned Popular Bank of Cyprus, also known as Laiki, and shifting deposits below 100,000 euros to the Bank of Cyprus to create a "good bank".

Deposits above 100,000 euros in both banks, which are not guaranteed under EU law, will be frozen and used to resolve Laiki's debts and recapitalize Bank of Cyprus through a deposit/equity conversion.

The raid on uninsured Laiki depositors is expected to raise 4.2 billion euros, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijssebloem said.

Laiki will effectively be shuttered, with thousands of job losses. Officials said senior bondholders in Laiki would be wiped out and those in Bank of Cyprus would have to make a contribution.

So, goodbye to the island's number 2 bank, and at least a 30% haircut through "unwinding" of Laiki on big Russian whale accounts, a clever maneuver that's not exactly a tax...oh yeah, and the loss of maybe half a percent of the nation's total jobs.  We'll see who signs off on the deal in the rest of Europe, because this deal is being done as a "bank restructuring" which the Cypriot parliament has already approved, they can't vote on this and sink it again.  Now, the rest of the EU however does have to sign off, and that's expected to happen.  After all, they're not going to burn over this, just Cyprus and Russia.

The Russians, I expect, will arrive for their payback quite soon.  Meanwhile, expect Cyprus to slip into a full-blown depression, as the Offshore Money Laundering industry was the island's major industry.  With that dead, yearly GDP contraction in the double digits isn't out of the question.  Big time depression coming here.  The real losers are the Cypriots themselves, who I expect will be in the riot stage before the end of the year, if not the end of spring.

Gotta love austerity.  In the end, the little people always pay.

StupidiNews!

• A single winning ticket for the latest $338 million Powerball jackpot has been sold in New Jersey this weekend.
• Protests against the NYPD continued over the weekend as the funeral of a sixteen-year old boy, shot and killed by police, sparked marches and demonstrations.
• Tighter US rules on lead emissions mean more companies are shifting battery production to Mexico.
• A last second deal will spare Cyprus and raise the $13 billion in bailout funds at the cost of the country's second largest bank and deposits larger than 100,000 euros.
• A jury has hit networking giant Cisco with a $70 million patent infringement penalty for misuse of a patent in its help centers in 2004.

Last Call

Mike Lillis over at The Hill can barely suppress his glee as President Obama's political obituary is written once again over gun regulations being dead, dead, dead in Congress.

An assault weapons ban is on life support and Senate Democrats have failed to entice a single Republican to back universal background checks. Congress also this week solidified four gun-friendly laws as part of legislation to fund the government through September.

To some observers, the shift in momentum comes as no surprise at all.

"[NRA CEO] Wayne LaPierre made terrible mistakes early on. They took two very bad spills," Ross Baker, political scientist at Rutgers University, said Friday in a phone interview. "But they quickly recovered and they assumed their usual position of dominance.

"They may do poorly in the first quarter, but they rally and they're usually ahead by halftime," he added. "They've been at it a long time. They know what buttons to push."

Adam Winkler, a constitutional expert at the UCLA School of Law, offered a similar explanation this week, arguing that even when the NRA is on the ropes, it "still sways a lot of voters."

"The NRA didn't become the political powerhouse it is by losing high-profile battles," Winkler, the author of "Gunfight: The Battle over the Right to Bear Arms in America," said Friday in an email.

"Even though the NRA had a poor showing in the November elections, the people whose job it is to know who sways voters — members of Congress — still think it can deliver."

In the world of The Hill -- again, about as inside the Beltway as it gets -- the NRA does indeed rule triumphantly.  I've warned time and time again that Wayne LaPierre's seemingly insane babbling makes perfect sense to the doomsday prepper crowd, and they're millions strong.  Barack Obama has been the best thing for firearms manufacturers and ammo makers since the beginning of time.  Record sales, huge shortages, and demand growing by double digits quarterly?  Tell me the NRA is crying.  They exist to get Americans to buy guns and ammo and brother, are they ever buying.

Like it's the end of the world or something.

Denial Ain't Just A River In Ross Douthat's Mind

I've decided that the "We're sorry we got suckered into supporting the Iraq War apologists" crew in both liberal and conservative circles alike can suck it, of course (and Ezra Klein's mostly sincere apology still means he will always have that strike against him).  Thanks for reminding us who lacked character, credibility, and judgment back then so we're all inclined to take anything you've said in the last ten years or anything you say now with an entire salt mine.  The number of dead Iraqis and coalition troops your apologies have resurrected remains precisely zero, which coincidentally is the quantity of damns I give about your tortured consciences.  Live with it.  You still have that option, unlike the dead.

But Ross Douthat singularly compounds his idiocy by deciding that liberals should really be grateful for Bush's bungled war because it gave us Obama.

No, seriously.  That's his argument.

History is too contingent to say that had there been no Iraq invasion in 2003, there would be no Democratic majority in 2012. (It’s easy enough to imagine counterfactuals that might have put Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office.) But the Democratic majority that we do have is a majority that the Iraq war created: its energy and strategies, its leadership and policy goals, and even its cultural advantages were forged in the backlash against George W. Bush’s Middle East policies. 

Not mentioned anywhere in Douthat's piece:  The fact that liberals AND conservatives may have been angry about Iraq, but hey, Afghanistan and Bin Laden still happened.  Oh, and that whole nearly collapsing our economy thing in his second term.

Barack Obama couldn't possibly have won election or re-election based on his policies and performance, right?  He couldn't have beaten the most powerful Democratic party machine in modern history (or at least since Camelot) without Bush Bungles Baghdad, right?  What's next, telling me how slavery, the Civil War, and the Jim Crow era were an awesome lucky break for black folk like me?

Douthat's one of those people who lack character, credibility, and judgment.  So why would anyone listen to his self-serving nonsense now?

I can't think of a reason.

Baby You're A Rich Man

Want to know why reducing the deficit, cutting social programs, repealing Obamacare and cutting taxes for the rich are Washington's only real priorities right now?  They're the top priorities of the people who have bought Washington, of course, as the LA Times discovers.

We recently conducted a survey of top wealth-holders (with an average net worth of $14 million) in the Chicago area, one of the first studies to systematically examine the political attitudes of wealthy Americans. Our research found that the biggest concern of this top 1% of wealth-holders was curbing budget deficits and government spending. When surveyed, they ranked those things as priorities three times as often as they did unemployment — and far more often than any other issue.

The game is always about money and power.  It always has been, it always will be.

Two-thirds of the respondents had contributed money (averaging $4,633) in the most recent presidential election, and fully one-fifth of them "bundled" contributions from others. About half recently initiated contact with a U.S. senator or representative, and nearly half (44%) of those contacts concerned matters of relatively narrow economic self-interest rather than broader national concerns. This kind of access to elected officials suggests an outsized influence in Washington.

Imagine if two-thirds of Americans donated $4,633 rather than just the rich.   Course, we don't have that kind of money.  The people who do will forever own our country's politicians.

While the wealthy favored more government spending on infrastructure, scientific research and aid to education, they leaned toward cutting nearly everything else. Even with education, they opposed things that most Americans favor, including spending to ensure that all children have access to good-quality public schools, expanding government programs to ensure that everyone who wants to go to college can do so, and investing more in worker retraining and education.

The wealthy opposed — while most Americans favor — instituting a system of national health insurance, raising the minimum wage to above poverty levels, increasing the Earned Income Tax Credit and providing a "decent standard of living" for the unemployed. They were also against the federal government helping with or providing jobs for those who cannot find private employment.

Unlike most Americans, wealthy respondents opposed increased regulation of large corporations and raising the "cap" that exempts income above $113,700 from the FICA payroll tax. And unlike most Americans, they oppose relying heavily on corporate taxes to raise revenue and oppose taxing the rich to redistribute wealth.

If this sounds like 100% of the Republican party's austerity platform, and the votes of Blue Dog Dems, there's a reason for that.  The rich bought and paid for the campaigns, and they expect delivery.  Sure, it will come at the expense of the rest of us, but we never mattered anyway.

We could if we wanted to.  We don't.

Operation Cypriot Slip, Part 3

Cyprus, facing Monday's ECB deadline to pull the plug on their banking system, and a re-opening of banks that have seen their depositor's confidence shattered, is in a huge bind.  They called the ECB's bluff by voting down the first bank levy plan to tax all depositors.  The ECB responded with the Monday deadline which will lead to the country's economic collapse unless averted.  Cypriot leaders see they now have no choice other than to cough up cash by dropping a huge bank levy on only the island's biggest accounts, most of which are held by Russian oligarchs.

Cyprus is considering a levy of about 25 percent on bank deposits over 100,000 euros ($130,000) in the island's largest local lender, Bank of Cyprus, Finance Minister Michael Sarris said on Saturday.

Sarris told reporters that "significant progress" had been made in talks with officials from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - the so-called 'troika' - and that the discussions may conclude on Saturday evening.

If that's true, the Russians are going to blow a gasket.  It also means that oligarchs in other EU countries are going to look at this in horror.  They know they're next.

Stay tuned.

StupidiNews, Weekend Edition!

• Senate Democrats have passed a budget raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans and closing loopholes to raise $1 trillion in revenues, but it will not survive the House.
• North Dakota lawmakers have sent a bill outlawing all abortions in the state to voters in a planned 2014 referendum.
• After being filibustered by Senate Republicans for 33 months, DC Circuit Court judicial nominee Caitlin Halligan has withdrawn her nomination.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping's first state trip to Russia has resulted in a major oil deal with Moscow and increased cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Apple's rollout of two-stage verification for passwords has exposed a major bug that could easily allow hackers to reset Apple ID passwords.

Last Call

Dinosaur Steve comes through in the end with a veto of the unconstitutionally stupid KY House Bill 289, the "Religious Freedom Act" but there are enough Blue Dogs (and in Frankfort, all the Dems are Blue Dogs) to most likely override the veto and make us the laughingstock of the nation again.

Gov. Steve Beshear vetoed a controversial religious-freedom bill Friday afternoon, saying the measure was well intended but would spark costly taxpayer-funded court cases and bring an array of unintended consequences.

"I have significant concerns that this bill will cause serious unintentional consequences that could threaten public safety, health care and individuals' civil rights," Beshear said in a statement. "As written, the bill will undoubtedly lead to costly litigation."

House Bill 279 would allow someone with "sincerely held" religious beliefs to disregard state laws "unless the government proves by clear and convincing evidence that it has a compelling governmental interest in infringing" the person's religious freedom. Gay rights and human rights groups have said the bill could be used to challenge local anti-discrimination laws that protect gays and lesbians in Lexington, Louisville, Covington and Vicco. 

"My religious beliefs are that (non-white people/LGBT people/non-Christians/women) are cursed by God, and I refuse to serve them.  It's now up to the Commonwealth to prove with clear and convincing evidence that they can infringe on my right to be a racist bigot."

Sure, this law won't cause lawsuits or anything.  I wonder how long this lasts if you replace the category up there with "white men".  Odds are we're going to find out really soon.

The sponsor of House Bill 279, Rep. Bob Damron, D-Nicholasville, said he thinks he'll have the 51 votes required to override the veto if House leaders decide to take a vote. Damron said Beshear, a Democrat, did not ask him or Democratic House leaders to refrain from trying to override the bill during a conversation of more than an hour Friday in the governor's Capitol office.

In a written statement, Senate President Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, said, "The Senate is prepared to override the veto of HB 279 if and when the Speaker moves to do so. As a House bill, that chamber must act on the bill first."

House Speaker Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg, said in a statement that Democratic leaders "will be discussing what action to take with our caucus."

The House passed the bill earlier this month with only seven dissenting votes. The Republican-led Senate passed it 29-6.

Lawmakers return to Frankfort on Monday for the final two days of the legislative session. Damron said there will be enough time to override the veto by midnight Tuesday.

So yeah, unless House Speaker Stumbo can talk the Blue Dogs down, Kentucky's about to become the land of 4.4 million theocracies.  Still, I'd love to see some atheists start refusing to serve anyone with religious beliefs.

In fact, I think that needs to happen...

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2013/03/22/2569508/beshear-will-veto-religious-freedom.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2013/03/22/2569508/beshear-will-veto-religious-freedom.html#storylink=cpy

A Little Perspective Music, Please

To recap, the House has passed the Senate 2013 Continuing Resolution.  The Senate CR bill makes the sequestration cuts permanent and makes several pro-gun NRA policy riders permanent.   Every Dem but two and both Independents voted for the CR (with the exception of New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg, who didn't vote and Jon Tester's no vote) along with several Republicans.  You want to know what the Republicans were getting in exchange for Reid's gun control bill even getting a vote?  Now you know.  That price came up front for the GOP, and they'll probably find a way to kill Reid's bill anyway.  Even if it does move through, it faces the House.

This means that Liz Warren, Tammy Baldwin, Bernie Sanders, Tom Harkin, Al Franken, all these bastions of progressive purity, voted for this in order to prevent a government shutdown next week, knowing that the gun control bill is in serious trouble and the GOP now has no real reason to negotiate in good faith.  It's the price of doing America's business, right?

Keep that in mind when President Obama signs the bill Congress gives him into law.  That sausage making machine is a pretty awful process to watch, ya know.  Tester and Lautenberg aren't exactly the bluest of blue, either, if you're planning on holding them up as more liberal than Liz Warren or anything.

And yes, this is me going after the usual suspects.  Nobody is pure in Congress.  They all play the game.  There are times when it doesn't matter how liberal the Dems are if you don't have the number of votes needed to win.  This is the result.  If you think the answer is the throw the impure Dems out and not the real bad guy Republicans, this result will continue to be permanent, too.