Last Call For Ohio Takes Your Vote

The Ohio GOP's first order of business: permanently disenfranchising Black voters in the state's largest urban counties with photo ID requirements and by limiting all counties to one early voting drop box.

 

Gov. Mike DeWine signed a major overhaul of state election laws on Friday that will require voters to present a photo ID at the polls.

Under the new law, voters must present a photo ID when they cast their ballot in person, although the ID doesn't need to have their current address on it. Qualifying IDs include an Ohio driver's license, state ID, U.S. passport, passport card, military ID or interim identification issued by the Bureau of Motor Vehicles.

Voters could previously use alternative forms of identification at the polls, such as utility bills or bank statements.

As part of the new rules, any Ohioans 17 and older will be eligible to receive a free state ID card. Ohio licenses and ID cards must also note if the person is not a U.S. citizen.

The law also:

• Requires completed mail-in ballots to arrive within four days of Election Day, instead of 10.
• Requires voters who want to vote by mail to submit an application at least seven days before Election Day, instead of three.
• Permits only one ballot drop box per county that's installed at the county board of elections office.
• Eliminates in-person voting the Monday before Election Day and reallocates those hours to another time.
• Gives provisional voters until four days after the election to provide missing information to election officials, instead of seven days.
• Give boards of elections until eight days after the election to determine whether provisional ballots can be counted.
• Eliminates most special elections in August unless the county, municipality or school district is under a fiscal emergency.
• Prohibits curbside voting, unless the voter has a disability and is unable to enter their polling place.
• Allows all 17-year-olds to serve as election officials, not just high school seniors.

 

Nearly every one of these measures is designed to make it more difficult for voters in large, urban counties like Hamilton and Cuyahoga to vote, particularly if they are not able to vote in person, or unable to spend a day at the DMV getting a state ID. The citizenship requirement is also there to scare off Hispanic voters.  

Ohio remains one of the most lawless states in the nation when it comes to the GOP ignoring state supreme court rulings and vote suppression tactics, and there's zero reason to believe things will improve in the state at all.

A Big Nasty Wedge Salad

One of the biggest reasons that Republicans are ruthlessly trying to destroy LGBTQ+ folks and trans folks in particular is because it's successfully being used as a wedge issue to try to crack the Obama coalition apart, and Black voters in particular.

 

Republicans and Democrats in the United States differ widely in their views on gender identity and transgender issues. But there are notable differences among Democrats, too, especially by race and ethnicity.

Overall, 60% of U.S. adults say that whether someone is a man or woman is determined by their sex at birth, while 38% say someone can be a man or woman even if that is different from their sex at birth, according to a May 2022 Pew Research Center survey. Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (86%) say someone’s gender is determined by sex at birth, while a majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (61%) say someone’s gender can differ from their sex at birth.

But Democrats’ views differ widely by race and ethnicity. Around two-thirds of Black Democrats (66%) say that whether someone is a man or woman is determined by their sex at birth. By contrast, 72% of White Democrats, 61% of Asian Democrats and 54% of Hispanic Democrats say that someone can be a man or woman even if that is different from their sex at birth. On this question, Black Democrats’ views are closer to those of Republicans than to the views of other Democrats.

 

And the differences are also pretty stark when it comes to trans kids as well.

Among Democratic K-12 parents, views again differ by race and ethnicity. Majorities of Black and Hispanic Democratic parents either prefer that their K-12 children learn that sex at birth determines whether someone is a boy or girl – or say that their children should not learn about this subject at school at all. By contrast, nearly two-thirds of White Democratic K-12 parents (64%) prefer that their children learn at school that someone can be a boy or girl even if that differs from their sex at birth. (There were not enough Asian American Democratic K-12 parents in the September 2022 survey to analyze separately.)

What explains Black Democrats’ differences with other Democrats on questions related to gender identity and transgender people?

Black Democrats are generally more likely than other Democrats to describe their political views as moderate and less likely to describe their views as liberal. Black Democrats have also differed from other Democrats on certain social issues, including whether the legalization of same-sex marriage has been good for society. They tend to be more religious than other Democrats as well – and more likely to say religion influences their views on gender identity, according to the Center’s May 2022 survey.

Around four-in-ten Black Democrats (37%) say their religious views have a great deal or fair amount of influence on their views about whether someone’s gender can differ from their sex at birth. Fewer White (11%), Hispanic (21%) and Asian Democrats (22%) say the same. White Democrats, by comparison, are more likely than Democrats in all other major racial and ethnic groups to say their views on gender identity are influenced a great deal or fair amount by knowing someone who is transgender. White Democrats are also more likely than most other Democrats to say their views are influenced a great deal or fair amount by what they’ve learned from science.

 

So yes, the gap between Black and white Democrats on trans issues is pretty big, and Republicans are more than happy to keep pounding on that in order to try to break off Black support.  Ron DeSantis in particular is using this tactic to great success in Florida against both Black and Hispanic Dems.

This is something Democrats are going to have to deal with, or we're going to continue to bleed support from both communities.

And yes, I've known trans friends for decades now, they are awesome, they are wonderful, and they are very much under assault on a daily basis.

The Big Bluegrass Breakdown

Kentucky Republicans, in a position where they can pass anything they want with a supermajority and override any veto by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, are set to turn the commonwealth into the poorest state in the nation.

 

The top priority bill of the Kentucky General Assembly's Republican supermajority, which would lower the state's individual income tax rate to 4% beginning in 2024, passed through the state House Thursday.

House Bill 1, which would also codify an automatic reduction of the tax rate from 5% to 4.5% for Jan. 1 of this year, was passed out of the chamber on a near party-line vote of 79-19, advancing the GOP supermajority's long-term plan to eventually eliminate Kentucky's income tax.

The tax cut bill passed through the House budget committee earlier that morning, with Republicans touting it as a way to put more money back into the pockets of taxpayers and spur future economic and population growth.

"It's putting more money back (to) the hard-working Kentuckians across the commonwealth," said Rep. Brandon Reed, R-Hodgenville, the lead sponsor of the bill and budget committee vice chair. "They'll be able to spend their money like they see fit, they'll be able to pay down debt, they'll be able to save for their families and spend accordingly."

All four Democrats on the budget committee voted against HB 1, arguing it would deprive the state's General Fund of more than $1 billion in tax revenue annually from the previous 5% rate, while largely benefiting the wealthiest in the state.

"This particular piece of legislation hurts lower-income Kentuckians and helps the wealthier, higher-income Kentuckians," said Rep. Ruth Ann Palumbo, D-Lexington. "It is not sustainable. Future legislators will have to raise taxes and we are not being fiscally responsible."

The tax cut bill is a product of Republicans' landmark House Bill 8 that passed in the 2022 session, which seeks to trigger automatic reductions of .5% to the individual income tax rate each year — so long as two budget conditions are met — until the income tax is eliminated.

Those HB 8 conditions are that the budget reserve trust fund (often called rainy day fund) is at least 10% of tax revenue for the previous fiscal year, and those same receipts exceed spending by at least the amount of revenue that would be lost by cutting the tax rate a full percentage point.

While the reduction of the tax rate from 5% to 4.5% beginning this year was automatic due to those conditions being met, HB 1 codifies that change, while also approving the further reduction to 4% beginning Jan. 1, 2024.

A fiscal note for HB 1 estimated it would reduce state tax revenue by $316 million through just the first half of 2024.

Pam Thomas with left-leaning think tank Kentucky Center for Economic Policy told the committee a 4% tax rate would result in state revenues dropping by roughly $1.2 billion annually from what they would be at 5% — more than what the state appropriates for its entire higher education system.

Noting the income tax reduction under the bill would be permanent, Thomas said the sales tax may have to be raised in the future if the economy hits a downturn and the state doesn't have enough revenue to meet critical obligations, disproportionately hurting lower-income people.

However, Rep. Jason Petrie, the Republican chair of the budget committee, dismissed those fears, saying Democratic critics have warned of pending increases to the sales tax rate since the legislature cut individual and corporate income tax rates from 6% to 5% in 2018, which hasn't happened.

"The rate of the sales tax remains the same," Petrie said. "We have every intent of continuing with that same sales tax rate."

Under House Bill 8, dozens of services previously exempt from a sales tax lost that exemption, though the estimated revenue from those moves was roughly $100 million — far from making up for revenue lost from the income tax cut.

 

The goal of course is to eliminate the state's income tax completely in a decade, leaving the state dependent on double digit sales taxes on goods and services, while also cutting as much as they can from schools, roads, social programs and basic government services.   The state's budget surplus will vanish, and the wealthiest Kentuckians will get tens of thousands of dollars.

Without income tax, the state's general fund will collapse, or have to be replaced with billions in additional sales tax, which is exactly what's going to come in the years ahead.

Last Call For Biden Working It Out

The Biden Administration is making a move to put an end to non-compete contracts, which could benefit workers by hundreds of billions in pay raises in the years ahead.

 

In a far-reaching move that could raise wages and increase competition among businesses, the Federal Trade Commission on Thursday unveiled a rule that would block companies from limiting their employees’ ability to work for a rival.

The proposed rule would ban provisions of labor contracts known as noncompete agreements, which prevent workers from leaving for a competitor or starting a competing business for months or years after their employment, often within a certain geographic area. The agreements have applied to workers as varied as sandwich makers, hair stylists, doctors and software engineers.

Studies show that noncompetes, which appear to directly affect roughly 20 percent to 45 percent of private-sector U.S. workers, hold down pay because job switching is one of the more reliable ways of securing a raise. Many economists believe they help explain why pay for middle-income workers has stagnated in recent decades.

Other studies show that noncompetes protect established companies from start-ups, reducing competition within industries. The arrangements may also harm productivity by making it hard for companies to hire workers who best fit their needs.

The F.T.C. proposal is the latest in a series of aggressive and sometimes unorthodox moves to rein in the power of large companies under the agency’s chair, Lina Khan.

“Noncompetes block workers from freely switching jobs, depriving them of higher wages and better working conditions, and depriving businesses of a talent pool that they need to build and expand,” Ms. Khan said in a statement announcing the proposal. “By ending this practice, the F.T.C.’s proposed rule would promote greater dynamism, innovation and healthy competition.”

The public will be allowed to submit comments on the proposal for 60 days, at which point the agency will move to make it final. An F.T.C. document said the rule would take effect 180 days after the final version is published, but experts said that it could face legal challenges.

 

Expect this to be tied up in courts well into 2024, when Republicans hope there will be a new FTC chair and a new President. Expect significant resistance to this from business groups and especially Silicon Valley as well.

 

As much as this needs to happen, I predict that the new rules will never take effect.

Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

Federal law enforcement agencies have upped the reward for information on the January 5th DC pipe bomber to a cool half-million.

 

The FBI, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Washington, DC, Metropolitan Police Department are now offering $500,000 for information leading to an arrest of the person who placed pipe bombs near the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, DC, the night before the 2021 US Capitol riot, the FBI announced Wednesday.

The announcement represents a sharp increase in the amount of money the government is willing to pay for information in the investigation: the monetary reward had previously stood at $100,000 prior to Wednesday, up from the $50,000 the bureau initially offered in the wake of the riot.

The increased amount comes days before the two-year anniversary of the insurrection. Little information has been released about the investigation since the pipe bombs, which were viable but never detonated, were discovered.

“With the significantly increased reward, we urge those who may have previously hesitated to contact us – or who may not have realized they had important information – to review the information on our website and come forward with anything relevant,” said David Sundberg, the assistant director in charge of the FBI field office in DC, in a statement.

“Despite the unprecedented volume of data review involved in this case, the FBI and our partners continue to work relentlessly to bring the perpetrator of these dangerous attempted attacks to justice,” Sundberg added.

The statement said that investigators have “conducted around 1,000 interviews, visited more than 1,200 residences and businesses, collected more than 39,000 videos, and assessed nearly 500 tips” about the pipe bomber.

The bombs were discovered within minutes of each other around 1 p.m. ET on January 6, just around the time that a mob of angry supporters of then-President Donald Trump descended on the building after a nearby rally with the president, according to an account the acting chief of the US Capitol gave to lawmakers in January and the FBI poster.

According to the FBI, the individual placed the two pipe bombs between 7:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. on January 5, 2021.

Security footage released by the FBI shows the person was carrying a backpack in their hand and wearing a face mask, gray hooded sweatshirt and black and light grey Nike Air Max Speed Turf sneakers with a yellow logo.

 

Two years ago to the day that these devices were planted, and we're still no closer to a suspect. Whoever did this knew what was coming on January 6th. If it was one of the Proud Boys or the other terrorists who came into DC for the Capital insurrection attempt, they would have talked by now.

It was somebody higher up, already in DC at the time. We know how several Republicans in Congress assisted the insurrection, but of course won't be touched in any investigations. I think the most likely scenario is that these bombs were set by someone connected to one of them.

But that's just me.

Seems that after two years, we'd have someone if they weren't being protected for some reason.

We'll see.

Mississippi Burning, Con't

Texas and Florida may be in the news more when it comes to Republican-run state governments, but in the end, there's no better example of what Republicans want to accomplish with governance than the state of Mississippi and reducing its infrastructure to rubble in order to privatize and profitize as much of basic services as possible in one of the poorest states in the nation. 

This goes for schools, it goes for roads, it goes for voting, it goes for water in the capital city of Jackson, and it sure as hell goes for the state's failing health care system, facing financial collapse, especially for majority Black counties and cities.

Mississippi’s healthcare crisis is worsening and an overhaul of the state’s “current system of care is unmistakably essential,” a leading medical group warned hours before the State Legislature was set to begin its 2023 session at noon Monday.

“The lack of access to healthcare for many Mississippians is currently a crisis, not a new crisis, but one that has been fermenting — and is getting worse,” the Mississippi State Medical Association said in a press release this morning. “As hospitals close across Mississippi, access to life-saving medical care becomes a real threat to all Mississippi. While the debate rages on as to why our hospitals are closing, the immediate crisis progressively engulfs us.”

Across the state, several hospitals have closed or cut services in recent months. During a hearing with lawmakers in November, Mississippi State Health Officer Dr. Daniel Edney warned that 38 of Mississippi’s rural hospitals, or about 54%, could close. Mississippi is already the poorest state with some of the worst health outcomes, including during the pandemic.

“That is a situation that is intolerable from an economic standpoint — to lose 54% of our hospitals in the state — much less from an access to care perspective,” PBS reported Edney saying in November.

For years, health-care professionals, including those at MSMA, have said that the State’s refusal to expand Medicaid to more working Mississippians has contributed significantly to hospital closures. Medicaid expansion was part of former Democratic President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare law, giving states funds to expand Medicaid access to people who make too much money for traditional Medicaid, but who do not earn enough to afford private insurance and are not eligible for ACA subsidies.

“Again, the healthcare crisis Mississippi now faces has been foreseeable for years and was indeed predicted,” MSMA said in its statement. “The fact is, there is a sizable gap that exists for working Mississippians who cannot afford private insurance, yet whose income is too much to qualify for Mississippi Medicaid. When these individuals need healthcare, hospitals are required to treat them regardless of their inability to pay. And because these individuals are uninsured, the hospital is not compensated for necessary care. Such an economical strain on hospitals is not one that even the most successful private business could not endure.”

Republicans don't want hospitals that work. They want sick, broken people who are forced into serfdom or worse, in communities that are sick and broken, so they can blame the Black, Native, and Latino people in those communities and write them off. They don't want them to be alive, because they're going to vote Democratic, and if they are dead and dying, Republicans will continue to always win and always be in power so they can continue to get rich. 

They don't want government to help the poor, the disenfranchised, the minority, the struggling. They want those parts of government permanently dismantled. They need a permanent underclass to exploit, and that means refusing to fund the parts of government that provide help to those who need it the most, because Republicans figure those people are the least productive to exploit and the most likely to vote against them for trying to exploit them anyway.

Since 2013, Mississippi’s Republican leaders have rejected more than $10 billion from the federal government that could have been used to expand Medicaid, even with the federal government offering to pay between 90% and 100% of the cost.

As it sought a buyer last year, the struggling Singing River Health System in Jackson County said the lack of Medicaid expansion was a primary driver of its financial troubles and those of other hospitals that “provide significant care for underinsured and uninsured populations.” Singing River employs about 3,500 people across three hospitals and three-dozen clinics.

Gov. Tate Reeves has long opposed expanding Medicaid, dating back to his time leading the Mississippi Senate as lieutenant governor when he dismissed it as “Obamacare expansion.” The current Republican lieutenant governor, Delbert Hosemann, has expressed interest in expanding Medicaid, but Reeves and GOP leaders in the Mississippi House have continued to oppose the idea.

Mississippi is one of just a dozen states that have declined to expand Medicaid. Despite representing less than a quarter of the country, states that refused to expand Medicaid accounted for 74% of all rural hospital closures between 2010 and 2021, an American Hospital Association report found last year.

No health care, no schools, no roads, no water, all misery to exploit. That's what they want. Survival for those who can maybe struggle hard enough to maybe afford to see a doctor, the rest worked so hard that they die young and never see a dime in Social Security or Medicare and never qualify for any other government programs because they "make too much money." 

States keeping their subjects poor, uneducated, and too tired to do anything about it.

The Republican way.

Last Call For The Circus Of The Damned, Con't

GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy was the biggest loser on Tuesday, unable to secure enough of his own caucus to reach the 218 mark for electing a House Speaker, and in fact he was nowhere close, with a good 20 defectors.

It only got worse for him today.

The House voted Wednesday to adjourn for the second time of the day — as Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said he wanted more time to negotiate after six rounds of voting on the speakership resulted in deadlock. It will resume at 12 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Driving the news: “I think it's probably best to let people work through some more. I don't think a vote tonight does any difference but votes in the future will," McCarthy said before the second vote to adjourn.He lost three speaker election bids on Tuesday and three more on Wednesday.

Why it matters: It's the first time since 1923 that the speaker vote has required multiple ballots and it's unclear when — or how — lawmakers will eventually break the deadlock.

The latest: The California Republican's latest defeats came hours after former President Trump urged Republicans to back him — and with his colleagues voting instead for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) multiple times.20 Republicans voted for Donalds during each round Wednesday. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who voted for McCarthy three times on Tuesday, voted present Wednesday.

Republicans started looking for other options this afternoon. Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) — who backed McCarthy over six ballots — told CNN: "He either needs to make a deal to bring the 19 or 20 over, or he needs to step aside and give somebody a chance to do that." Other Republicans are waiting in the wings as they struggle with this same calculus, GOP lawmakers and aides tell Axios.

It's abundantly clear that McCarthy won't get enough GOP votes to be Speaker. It's unclear if there's an Republican who actually can.

Enter the Democrats.  

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) on Wednesday said “preliminary talks” had begun with Democrats about supporting a “consensus candidate” for Speaker.

Bacon told CNN, however, he wanted to hold back on the details of the conversations so as to not get ahead of the negotiations.

“There are preliminary talks, but we don’t want to go too fast on this because that then hijacks what Kevin is trying to do, and we want to support Kevin, he’s worked hard to get this,” Bacon said.

Kevin's already sold his soul to Trump.  But maybe, just maybe, there's someone on the GOP side willing to cut a real deal with the Dems and blindside McCarthy, the holdouts, and a lot of the circus clowns to boot.

I'm not saying it'll happen. I'm not saying there's anyone on the GOP side I'd trust to make this happen.

What I'm saying is Kevin McCarthy won't be Speaker. 

We're back at it tomorrow...

Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

Right-wing domestic terrorists continue to call for violent sedition in order to take control of the country, this time in Colorado.

 

A far-right conservative leader known for his gun shop’s reality TV show is warning that “it’s almost time to switch from ballots to bullets.”

Rich Wyatt, president of Jefferson County’s Mountain Republicans Club, made the suggestion of coming political violence on a December 28 episode of the conservative podcast, The Chuck and Julie Show.

“It’s almost time to switch from ballots to bullets. Because that’s what wins the hearts and minds,” Wyatt said. “And there’s no arguing with a bullet. You can argue about ballots, but you can’t argue with bullets.”

When reached by phone on Tuesday, Wyatt declined to say who specifically would be targeted by the political violence. Wyatt also declined to say whether he plans to participate in political violence. As a convicted felon, Wyatt is prohibited from possessing firearms and ammunition.

Wyatt declined to answer questions via phone or email.

“I’d be happy to come on your show,” Wyatt said. “But if you’re afraid to do that, that’d be fine with me.”

Wyatt, of Evergreen, is best known for the Discovery Channel show “American Guns,” which featured his Wheat Ridge gun shop, Gunsmoke, from 2011 to 2012.

In 2018, Wyatt was convicted and sentenced to 78 months in federal prison plus three years of supervised release for conspiracy to deal in firearms without a license and tax fraud. Wyatt appealed the conviction and was given one year in prison and one year of supervised release. His supervised release ended in June 2021.

Wyatt was ordered to forfeit nearly 500 firearms at sentencing.

Wyatt unsuccessfully appealed to former President Donald Trump for a pardon in December 2020, which would have restored Wyatt’s firearms rights.

 

We have convicted Republican felons calling for armed sedition, openly.

 

The failure to put multiple Republicans in prison after January 6th continues to be a threat to the nation's stability, and the longer it takes to do that, the more chance there is of a major domestic terrorism even larger than January 6th. 

Like A Troubled Bridge Over Waters, Con't

President Biden will be in town today to kick off the new year and to remind everyone why he was elected as he visits the Brent Spence Bridge, with work funded by his historic infrastructure bill beginning later this year to replace the nearly 70-year old structure. 

 

President Joe Biden is visiting northern Kentucky on Wednesday to tout spending more than $1 billion in federal grants to improve congestion on the aging Brent Spence Bridge.

The bridge links Covington and downtown Cincinnati over the Ohio River along Interstate 75, one of the busiest trucking routes in America.

The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) announced last week it would award $1.635 billion for the construction of a companion bridge to help unclog bridge traffic by separating truck traffic from local vehicles. This is from an infrastructure law Congress passed in late 2021 to help repair or rebuild 10 of the most economically significant bridges in the country.

“The grant to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet will fund improvements to the Brent Spence Bridge, which is currently the second worst truck bottleneck in the nation and carries more than $400 billion in freight per year over the Ohio River,” reads a news release Wednesday from DOT.

The project also will improve “delays in the movement of freight that currently raise costs for American families.”

President Biden is expected to fly into Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport around 11:25 a.m.

Expect traffic delays on I-275 and I-71/75, as well as streets around the Brent Spence Bridge in Covington.

The president will hold a news conference near the bridge around lunchtime, making a rare joint appearance with Senate Republican Majority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Other elected officials plan to attend, adding to the bipartisan mix of the event: Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, former Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican.

I'll of course be following the project over the next couple of years. Remember, proposing that the companion bridge be built with toll money is what cost Matt Bevin reelection. Keeping the bridge toll-free might get Beshear another term.

Last Call For Our Little White Supremacist Domestic Terrorism Problem, Con't

Two suspects have been arrested in connection with the power substation attacks in Washington State on Christmas day.

Two men were arrested on New Year’s Eve for allegedly shutting down four Washington state power substations in late December that led to power outages for thousands across Pierce County.

Matthew Greenwood and Jeremy Crahan have been charged with conspiracy to damage energy facilities and Greenwood faces a separate charge of possessing illegal short-barreled rifles.

According to court documents, Greenwood, 32, and Crahan, 40, plotted to knock out power from four substations. While power was out in the first two facilities, the pair broke into a local business to steal from the cash register, Greenwood allegedly told investigators after his arrest.

Greenwood got into the substations by cutting through fences and locks, prosecutors say, and tampered electrical breakers and with something called the “bank high-side switch.” For all but one attack, Crahan allegedly stayed outside and acted as a getaway driver.

The two cut off power to thousands of locals and caused at least $3 million worth of damage, according to charging documents.

Investigators identified Greenwood and Crahan almost immediately after the attacks took place by using cell phone data that allegedly showed both men in the vicinity of all four substations, according to court documents. Surveillance images cited in the court documents also showed images of one of the men and of the getaway car.

When Greenwood was arrested in a trailer Saturday, law enforcement also found two short-barrel rifles, which they say Greenwood did not legally own.

The two face up to 20 years behind bars if convicted of conspiring to attack energy facilities. No defense lawyers were listed on the public docket as of Tuesday.

 

Dumbasses didn't even turn off their cell phones, and surprise, they had firearms that they didn't legally own.

Still, if two stupid terrorists like these can cause millions in damage and power outages for tens of thousands, imagine what a couple hundred of these jokers could do in a nationwide attack. Not that I think they're coordinated to pull off something like that without tipping the Feds, but any group that can would present a major danger to the country.

I still believe an attack like that is coming this year, and I absolutely want to be wrong.

 

The Circus of the Damned Begins

Kevin McCarthy has now failed on three ballots to become House Speaker.

 

Republicans are facing a leadership drama as they take control of the House on Tuesday.

As the 118th Congress convenes, the first order of business in the chamber is the election of a new speaker -- and current Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is being stymied by a group of hardliners demanding concessions.

To win the gavel, McCarthy needs a majority of the members-elect who are present and voting. But because the GOP holds only a five-seat advantage, a small number of defections is so far stopping McCarthy from gaining the office he's long sought.

The House can conduct no other business until a speaker is chosen. For the first time in a century, the vote is requiring multiple rounds.

 

There's no indication that this mess will end anytime soon.

House Republicans are completely incompetent, but we all knew this.

 

And now they have adjourned until noon tomorrow, where we go through this all again.

Historic incompetence.

Fantasma Santos, Con't

I don't know if the NY Times is working overtime on the George Santos criminal fraud beat out of guilt or trying to cover up their incompetence on stopping him from even being nominated last year, but the more we find out about Santos's pathological lies about his criminal background, the more I want to smash people's heads in at the Times, the NY Democratic party, law enforcement and prosecutors, state and federal, for letting the GOP put in another Trump fascist in the House.

When Representative-elect George Santos takes his seat in Congress on Tuesday, he will do so under the shadow of active investigations by federal and local prosecutors into potential criminal activity during his two congressional campaigns.

But an older criminal case may be more pressing: Brazilian law enforcement authorities intend to revive fraud charges against Mr. Santos, and will seek his formal response, prosecutors said on Monday.

The matter, which stemmed from an incident in 2008 regarding a stolen checkbook, had been suspended for the better part of a decade because the police were unable to locate him.

A spokeswoman for the Rio de Janeiro prosecutor’s office said that with Mr. Santos’s whereabouts identified, a formal request will be made to the U.S. Justice Department to notify him of the charges, a necessary step after which the case will proceed with or without him.

The criminal case in Brazil was first disclosed in a New York Times investigation that uncovered broad discrepancies in his résumé and questions about his financial dealings.

Just a month before his 20th birthday, Mr. Santos entered a small clothing store in the Brazilian city of Niterói outside Rio de Janeiro. He spent nearly $700 using a stolen checkbook and a false name, court records show.

Mr. Santos admitted the fraud to the shop owner in August 2009, writing on Orkut, a popular social media website in Brazil, “I know I screwed up, but I want to pay.” In 2010, he and his mother told the police that he had stolen the checkbook of a man his mother used to work for, and used it to make fraudulent purchases.

A judge approved the charge in September 2011 and ordered Mr. Santos to respond to the case. But by October, he was already in the United States and working at Dish Network in College Point, Queens, company records show.

Despite his earlier confessions, Mr. Santos has recently denied any criminal involvement, telling The New York Post, “I am not a criminal here — not here or in Brazil or any jurisdiction in the world.”

Joe Murray, a lawyer for Mr. Santos, said on Monday, “I am in the process of engaging local counsel to address this alleged complaint against my client.”

Just the sheer number of decision points where Santos should have been in jail and his political career ended is shocking, and yet he made it all the way to the US House of Representatives as a career criminal.

Fitting, I guess.  He'll never be expelled even if convicted, because the GOP can't afford to lose any seats. As such, the House GOP plans to open the session today with new rules that will all but eliminate Democrats from the House Ethics Committee.

You know, if they even can elect a Speaker to begin.

More on that later today.

Of course even if Santos was somehow removed, given the gargantuan incompetence of the NY Democratic Party, they'd lose a special election for sure, and a rematch in 2024 is at best a 50-50 proposition.

It just fills me with anger. This guy should have been fried like a clam years ago.  

Yet here he is, about to be sworn in today, and making laws.

Disgraceful.

Holidaze Week: A Public Insurrection

As its final act, the House Select Committee on January 6th has made a huge database of evidence accessible to the public in order to support last month's expansive report on Trump's criminality and why he and other members of his circle were referred for criminal prosecution.

The panel posted thousands of pages of evidence late Sunday in a public database that provide the clearest glimpse yet at the well-coordinated effort by some Trump allies to help Trump seize a second term he didn’t win. Much of the evidence has never been seen before and, in some cases, adds extraordinary new elements to the case the select committee presented in public — from voluminous phone records to contemporaneous text messages and emails.

Trump lawyers strategized which federal courts would be likeliest to uphold their fringe constitutional theories; Trump White House aides battled to keep unhinged theories from reaching the president’s ears; as the Jan. 6 attack unfolded, West Wing aides sent horrified messages about Trump’s incendiary tweets and inaction; and after the attack, some Trump allies discussed continued efforts to derail the incoming Biden administration.

Here’s a look at some of the most extraordinary and important evidence in the select committee’s files.

Jan. 6 investigators have pored over the circumstances of Trump’s Dec. 19, 2020 tweet exhorting followers to come to Washington to protest the counting of electoral votes by Congress. “Will be wild,” Trump wrote, a message that experts and security officials viewed as rocket fuel for extremists.

The committee’s evidence includes a Jan. 22, 2021 text exchange between Trump adviser Katrina Pierson and his longtime social media guru Dan Scavino in which Scavino makes clear: No one told Trump to author the tweet. Scavino rejected the notion that advocates involved in “Stop the Steal” efforts had anything to do with Trump’s decision to issue the tweet. And in what appears to be a nod to its authorship, Scavino wrote “He does do his own tweets.”

In an earlier exchange, just hours after Congress concluded certifying the election for Biden, Scavino told Pierson: “We’re dealing w/lot now, but we’ll prevail.”

Scavino was an elusive witness for the select committee, and the House voted to hold him in contempt for refusing to cooperate, but the Justice Department declined to prosecute him.

Two days after the Jan. 6 attack, Trump adviser Steve Bannon told his spokeswoman that he didn’t necessarily think the fight to prevent a Biden administration had ended.

In an interview with Bannon’s spokesperson Alexandra Preate, the select committee read from a text exchange Preate had with Bannon on Jan. 8, 2021

“We must turn up the heat,” Bannon wrote to Preate.

When Preate asked when Trump was leaving town ahead of Biden’s inauguration, Bannon replied, “He’s not staying in the White House after the 20th. But who says we don’t have one million people the next day?”

“I’d surround the Capitol in total silence,” Bannon added.

The select committee posted Trump’s complete White House call logs from Jan. 2, Jan. 3 and Jan. 5, 2021 — each reflecting Trump’s intense focus on remaining in power.

The Jan. 2 call log denotes Trump’s hour-long call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, in which Trump famously urged him to “find” enough votes to flip the election results to him. The logs put that call in context: Immediately afterward, Trump had a Zoom meeting with attorney Rudy Giuliani, a phone call with Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and a 22-minute call with Bannon.

On Jan. 3, Trump’s call logs reflect a flurry of contacts with top Justice Department officials as he contemplated elevating Jeffrey Clark to acting attorney general — a figure he viewed as sympathetic to his bid to stay in power. Trump spoke to Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) that afternoon just before the call logs reflect Clark actually being elevated, however briefly, to the top DOJ post. But the move didn’t hold. A mass resignation threat by DOJ leaders prompted Trump to back away from the plan.

 

The criminality, on multiple fronts, is both pervasive and conspiratorial. At this point we have to have prosecutions, or we're done as a nation.

 

If Merrick Garland doesn't have the evidence by now, if he doesn't have a case by now, he never will. 

On another note, we'll be resuming normal operations tomorrow as we head into 2023.

Holidaze Week: New Year, Same Old NY Times

The New York Times is very eager to tell you how the New York Times wasn't responsible for the terrible poling that vastly overestimated the "Red Wave" in 2022 even though the New York Times had terrible polling that vastly overestimated the "Red Wave" in 2022.

It's a real mystery, New York Times!

 

Not for the first time, a warped understanding of the contours of a national election had come to dominate the views of political operatives, donors, journalists and, in some cases, the candidates themselves.

The misleading polls of 2022 did not just needlessly spook some worried candidates into spending more money than they may have needed to on their own races. They also led some candidates — in both parties — who had a fighting chance of winning to lose out on money that could have made it possible for them to do so, as those controlling the purse strings believed polls that inaccurately indicated they had no chance at all.

In the election’s immediate aftermath, the polling failures appeared to be in keeping with misfires in 2016 and 2020, when the strength of Donald J. Trump’s support was widely underestimated, and with the continuing struggles of an industry that arose with the corded home telephone to adapt to the mass migration to cellphones and text messaging. Indeed, some of the same Republican-leaning pollsters who erred in 2022 had built credibility with their contrarian, but accurate, polling triumphs in recent elections.

But a New York Times review of the forces driving the narrative of a coming red wave, and of that narrative’s impact, found new factors at play.

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past.

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives.

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom.

 

A three-word mea culpa down in paragraph ten. Efficient!

 

Look, the Times is right about Real Clear Politics being absolute shitbags, but the Times should have known better, especially with its own polling shop.

It did not know better.  Luckily, voters did.

Holidaze Week: Joementum in 2023

Team WIN THE MORNING reminds us that Joe Biden is actually still President of the United States, and that he actually got a hell of a lot done in 2022 with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi's help.

A year makes a difference after all.

President Joe Biden begins 2023 politically stronger than 12 months ago, bolstered by his party’s surprise midterms success, a robust set of legislative accomplishments and the resilience of the alliance he rallied to support Ukraine after Russia’s invasion. Indeed, as he vacations on St. Croix, the biggest decision he faces is whether to seek reelection to the office he holds.

Biden has not yet fully committed to another term, according to three people with knowledge of the deliberations but not authorized to speak publicly about private conversations. On his island vacation, Biden continued his running conversation with family and a select few friends and allies about a reelection bid.

 

That's not true at all of course, but forget it Jake, it's Horserace-town.

There are challenges still on the horizon, from an economy threatening to slow down, to the war in Europe, to an incoming Republican House majority threatening gridlock and investigations. But those in the president’s circle believe there is a strong and growing likelihood that he will run again and that an announcement could potentially come earlier than had been expected, possibly as soon as mid-February, around the expected date of the State of the Union, according to those people.

That potentially accelerated time is owed, in part, to a sense inside the White House and among Biden allies, that the new year dawns on a note of revival, one marked by an unlikely comeback that has reassured fellow Democrats.

Revamping the primary calendar to put Biden-friendly South Carolina first was another sign of intention to run again. First Lady Jill Biden has signaled that she is onboard with another bid, even as some close Biden worry about the toll of a campaign on the 80-year-old president. Advisors privately acknowledge that Biden benefitted in 2020 by being spared the full rigors of a campaign due to the pandemic and some close to him harbor anxieties as to how he will handle a punishing, full-blown itinerary this time around.

Though some Democrats still express worry about Biden’s age, their public doubts were largely silenced by the party’s strong November showing, in which Democrats grew their Senate lead and prevented a red wave in the House. There are still worries, chief among them, per White House aides, is the economy.

Though inflation has somewhat cooled, it remains high in most sectors and there are fears that gas prices could rise again next year. Moreover, there is a quiet concern in the West Wing that the nation’s economy will slow for at least the first quarter of 2023, according to administration officials, even if the United States manages to technically avoid a recession.

Europe, meanwhile, seems poised for a possibly significant setback, having been battered by inflation and an energy crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. That could cause residual effects in the U.S. as could a lingering Covid crisis in China, which has sparked worries in Washington about supply line challenges as well as the possible birth of a new virus variant that could spread throughout the globe.

 

Now, all of these other questions are far more important out here in reality. The global economic picture, Covid's latest variant and its rapid spread this winter, Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine, and whatever nonsense China, North Korea and Iran are up to try to ruin the day, and yes, Not Kevin McCarthy's Circus of the Damned, all are serious issues.

 

But Politico is going to Politico. At least the piece isn't filled with "sources" openly saying Biden should be primaried and who should run against him, and that's actually a major improvement.

We'll see.

Holidaze Week: Sunday Long Read

Our Sunday Long Read this week comes from The Believer, where author Natalie So tracks down the history of Silicon Valley's pre-dotcom crash days and documents the role her own mother played in what was at the time a major computer chip theft ring across the Bay Area.

On a Wednesday morning during an unbearable late-summer heat wave, I sat in the back seat of my mother’s car, my three-month-old baby beside me, as we cruised along the 85, which runs from San Jose up to Mountain View. My mother was at the wheel, and we were on our way to pick up an assortment of Taiwanese snacks—taro cakes, red bean rice cakes, green mango sorbet, and shao bing—from an outpost of a Taiwanese specialty store called Combo Market. Outside, on the freeway, the tall, yellowed grasses and perennially faded shrubbery looked prehistoric, as if they had been there for decades unmoved.

We decided to take a short detour before picking up the food. My mother made her way toward the 237, and then exited onto Lawrence Expressway in Sunnyvale. “Mumu Hotspot,” she murmured to herself, as we passed a new hot pot restaurant. We pulled into the parking lot of a nondescript one-story complex: a group of bitonal buildings, cream on top and taupe on the bottom. Each office was marked by a sign whose formatting must have been mandated by the property managers, because the company names were in all-caps, uniformly rendered in a bland and unstylish serif font. I looked around to see what types of businesses were here now: LE BREAD XPRESS, KINGDOM BRICK SUPPLY, BIOCERYX TECHNOLOGIES INC. One would not have guessed we were in Silicon Valley.

There was only one office that appeared empty, with a company placard that was blank. The door to that office was emblazoned with the numbers 1233 in white. When I peered in, I saw no one, no furniture, nothing. It was a small room that might have been a reception area once, with brown carpet that appeared at least a decade old. There were two closed doors adjacent to each other, one of which had a sign that read EMPLOYEES ONLY. An ominous white camera blinked on the floor in the far corner, likely a deterrent for grifters and interlopers.


Eight years ago, I began researching a story that took place at this very office in August of 1995. It was a story I’d heard many times as a child, though in far vaguer terms than are delineated below. The story went like this:

On a Friday morning, a Hong Kong woman named Grace arrived at work. Grace was tall and extremely thin, with a jutting chin and frizzy, permed, shoulder-length black hair. It was around 9:00 a.m., and two of her coworkers, a husband-and-wife couple named Irene and Paul, were outside the office waiting to be let in.

After Grace unlocked the office for the two of them, she realized she’d left something in the car. Upon approaching the office door a second time, she noticed two men in suits coming out the door of the neighboring company, Freshers Soft Frozen Lemonade, a wholesale distributor for ballparks and stadiums. They were also Asian, but darker-skinned than she was. As they approached her, one of them said, “We’re here to see Steven.” Grace told them that Steven no longer worked at the company. “Then can we see your boss?” they asked. They were insinuating that they were familiar with the company by giving Grace a name, but Grace was suspicious. Clients never showed up this early. “Could you come back later?” she asked.

Instead of answering, the men moved closer to her—so close, in fact, that Grace noticed a large, distinctive mole on one man’s chin, as she would later testify. They pushed her into the reception area of the office. The mole-marked man opened his suit jacket, pointed to what appeared to be a gun in the inner lining, and said to her, “You know what I want.”

And she did—Grace had heard of things like this happening recently. People had been kidnapped. A man had been killed. Just a few days ago her coworkers had joked about getting robbed. These events were occurring with such frequency that at times they seemed banal, but even then, she had never imagined it would happen at her own workplace. Grace’s boss had recently installed a new alarm system and distributed panic buttons to all her employees, but the men had cornered her so quickly that she’d had no time to act. “Don’t do anything stupid,” the men said. “This robbery is going to be covered by your insurance, anyway.” Now Grace, Paul, Irene, and another coworker named Anna—who had arrived at the office shortly after the men confronted Grace—all lay face-down on the floor. Soon they would have their wrists and ankles bound with zip ties.

Except for Anna, because she was the only person besides their boss who knew where all the inventory was kept. This was a precaution taken in the event of a worst-case scenario—the kind of scenario that was happening now. One man pushed her into the back room, a warehouse-like space where all supplies and inventory were kept. Anna was a petite Taiwanese woman who spoke broken English. Later, she would recall that she was scared, but on instinct did not think these men were evil. They did not shout or scream or even raise their voices. Instead, they spoke in calm, measured tones. They were peculiar, she thought: more like businessmen than criminals.

Anna pulled out box after box as the man watched (the other stayed with the rest of the employees). These robbers knew exactly what they were looking for, because they had been scouting this office for days. They’d even made an appointment with the wholesale lemonade purveyor next door under the guise that they were interested in purchasing lemonade, so they could keep an eye on this very place. They knew a shipment had come in just a few days ago, and if they could find what they were looking for, they’d be making off with hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of goods. After all, pound for pound, the loot they were after was more valuable than either heroin or cocaine.

The man who was watching Anna seemed frustrated, and he made a phone call. Anna heard him listing the items in the stockroom, a litany of model names. Not wanting to linger too long, the men grabbed several boxes and then left through the back loading dock, where a getaway car was waiting.

What in Silicon Valley at the time was so valuable, so hotly desired, that even gangs accustomed to trafficking drugs had started to take notice? What was at once easily transported, concealed, disposed of, and virtually untraceable? There was only one thing, which the Santa Clara deputy DA would later call “the dope of the ’90s”: computer chips.

Not until twenty years later would I learn just how frequently these robberies were taking place. Even though millions of dollars’ worth of computer chips were stolen, this era of Silicon Valley would largely be forgotten. Computer hardware would eventually give way to the dot-com bubble, after which social media, the cloud, big data, and later, Bitcoin, NFTs, and other increasingly intangible technologies would come to the fore. But for a time, the boom of personal computing transformed Silicon Valley into the Wild West, a new frontier that drew every kind of speculator, immigrant, entrepreneur, and bandit, all lured by the possibilities of riches, success, and the promise of a new life. The Silicon Valley of the ’90s was in many ways an expression of the quintessential American story, but an unexpected one: one that involved organized crime, narcotics trafficking, confidential informants, and Asian gangs. It is also part of my family history. Grace, as it turns out, is my aunt. And the company being robbed? It was my mother’s.

 

I admit this is a part of tech history I didn't know about, outside of AMC's brilliant Halt and Catch Fire series, Silicon Valley before the dotcom crash hasn't really been discussed. I certainly didn't know about massive chip theft rings operating in California.

It's a fascinating story and a good start to 2023.

Zandar's 2023 Predictions

Another year, another look into the crystal ball as I try to predict 2023's political, social, economic, technological and scientific future. My record as a futurist  over the years is fair to middling at best, and your various pets are probably better at this than I am for crying out loud. We'll see how I fare 365 days from now, and away we go, picking up from 2022's "Didn't happen but should" category:

1) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy still won't be House Speaker.  This one, carried over from last year, assumed falsely that he'd get the Paul Ryan heave-ho. This time around we'll find out for sure in a few days. I expect multiple votes to fail, and for another Republican to step in, the smart money being on Rep. Steve Scalise.

2) Donald Trump will finally be indicted.  It may be in Georgia for election tampering, it may be in New York for tax fraud or his payment to Stormy Daniels, or (far less likely) Special Counsel Jack Smith and AG Merrick Garland will finally present their grand unified federal case.  But Trump doesn't have any more clock to run out. SCOTUS has left him wide open and vulnerable. How the country reacts to these indictments will determine much of our future as a democracy. If he's not indicted by the end of 2023, he never will be.

3) The Supreme Court will end affirmative action in college admissions. This one's as easy as falling off a log, folks. There are five, if not six votes (depending on Chief Justice Roberts) to dismantle race as a factor in getting into college, and depending on how broad the decision is, it could end some scholarships based on race, heritage grants, or even funding for HBCUs. As with 2022's destruction of abortion rights and executive agency rulemaking, this too will have a deleterious effect on the country for decades.

4) But, SCOTUS will side with the Biden Administration on ending Title 42.  It has to, otherwise the Supreme Court would be sending immigration to the states and throwing the entire federal immigration system out. Both Gorsuch and Roberts seem very reluctant to do so, Roberts seemed like he stayed the lifting of Title 42 until a decision comes down by June.

5) I want to be wrong on this, but I believe a multi-state attack on power substations in order to cause a blackout is inevitable. It will be a simultaneous strike on dozens of substations in several states that will knock out power to millions. There have been multiple small scale attacks that are still being called "vandalism" at this point, not "terrorism". That will change in 2023.

6) Jerome Powell and the Fed will at last begin to cut interest rates.  This won't happen until the second half of the year and only then after signs of a stalled economy, reduced inflation and even monthly job losses, but we'll see the Fed cut rates before the year is out.

7) Phase 5 of the MCU makes $1 billion in 2023. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will introduce the Big Bad for the next few years in Kang the Conqueror, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will be a huge hit, and The Marvels will top it off this summer.  People are going to want an escape, and they will go to theaters to get there. 

8) Dow 36,000, no seriously this time.  Especially if number 6 is true, lowering interest rates will be like market steroids. 2022 was effectively a bear market. Then again, post-Covid, the Dow almost doubled in two years before coming back to earth. Things will rebound as Biden's infrastructure and climate change legislation starts kicking in.

9) My "way out there" prediction this year is Russian forces leave Ukraine.  Yeah I know, the only sucker bet in the world worse than SCOTUS-watching is "less war!" But if things continue to go as badly for Putin as I think things will, including a "big" offensive in early 2023 that stalls out and finally breaks the Russian army, it's possible that he cuts his losses. Which would be good. It's far better than my other Way Out There At Number Nine prediction, which is China invading Taiwan...

And finally...

10) ZVTS rolls on for another year.  I appreciate all of you sticking with me as this journey continues. We've navigated some dangerous waters and had some big wins and big losses in 2022, but I'll be here to continue to document the happenings. Thank you for being a reader, and I hope you'll continue to stay with us.

We'll see how it goes.

Holidaze Week: Rest In Peace

It always seems like there are several globally notable deaths at the end of the year, and 2022 was no different.

Brazilian soccer giant Pele passed away at 82:

The standard-bearer of “the beautiful game” had undergone treatment for colon cancer since 2021. The medical center where he had been hospitalized for the last month said he died of multiple organ failure as a result of the cancer.

“Pelé changed everything. He transformed football into art, entertainment,” Neymar, a fellow Brazilian soccer star, said on Instagram. “Football and Brazil elevated their standing thanks to the King! He is gone, but his magic will endure. Pelé is eternal!”

A funeral was planned for Monday and Tuesday, with his casket to be carried through the streets of Santos, the coastal city where his storied career began, before burial.

Widely regarded as one of soccer’s greatest players, Pelé spent nearly two decades enchanting fans and dazzling opponents as the game’s most prolific scorer with Brazilian club Santos and the Brazil national team.

Legendary news anchor and interviewer Barbara Walters has died at age 93:

Walters joined ABC News in 1976, becoming the first female anchor on an evening news program. Three years later, she became a co-host of "20/20," and in 1997, she launched "The View."

Bob Iger, the CEO of The Walt Disney Company which is the parent company of ABC News, praised Walters as someone who broke down barriers.

“Barbara was a true legend, a pioneer not just for women in journalism but for journalism itself. She was a one-of-a-kind reporter who landed many of the most important interviews of our time, from heads of state to the biggest celebrities and sports icons. I had the pleasure of calling Barbara a colleague for more than three decades, but more importantly, I was able to call her a dear friend. She will be missed by all of us at The Walt Disney Company, and we send our deepest condolences to her daughter, Jacqueline,” Iger said in a statement Friday.

In a career that spanned five decades, Walters won 12 Emmy awards, 11 of those while at ABC News.

She made her final appearance as a co-host of "The View" in 2014, but remained an executive producer of the show and continued to do some interviews and specials for ABC News.

"I do not want to appear on another program or climb another mountain," she said at the time. "I want instead to sit on a sunny field and admire the very gifted women -- and OK, some men too -- who will be taking my place."

And finally, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI has passed at age 95: 

Dignitaries and religious leaders have been paying tribute to Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, who died Saturday in a monastery in the Vatican at the age of 95.

Benedict, who was the first pontiff in almost 600 years to resign his position, rather than hold office for life, passed away on Saturday, according to a statement from the Vatican.

“With sorrow I inform you that the Pope Emeritus, Benedict XVI, passed away today at 9:34 in the Mater Ecclesiae Monastery in the Vatican,” the Director of the Press Office of the Holy See, Matteo Bruni said.

The funeral of Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI will be held on Thursday in St. Peter’s Square in the Vatican City at 9:30 a.m. local time, Bruni said. The funeral will be led by Pope Francis.

The former pope’s body will lie in state in St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican from Monday for the faithful to bid farewell, Vatican News reported Saturday. As per the wish of Pope Emeritus, his funeral will be “simple,” Bruni said.

Needless to say, all three changed the world, for better (or in the last example, don't get me started on the "for worse" part.)

 

Zandar's 2022 Prediction Scorecard

 It's time to take stock of how my picks, pans, predictions and prognostications proceeded here in 2022, you know, with the fate of the country at stake and all if I was wrong.  Luckily, I did pretty well this year, as we run down my dartboarding.

1) Democrats keep the Senate in 2022. I can't in good faith call the House at this point. But I do know that as Mitch McConnell has proven, keeping the Senate when you have the White House means there's a lot you can do, and Biden has gotten a record number of federal judiciary appointments. The next Supreme Court justice could happen at any time, as we've seen. Without the House, things would be terrible. But without the Senate, it'll be catastrophic.

 

I get full credit for this one, and thank the universe for that.

2) Nancy Pelosi steps down as House Democratic Leader. I hate to say it, even after the long years she has proven that she has been the most effective House leader the Democrats have seen in my lifetime, but I think she steps down in 2022 and will not run as Speaker or House Minority Leader in 2023.

 

She went out on her terms, in her own time, with her own successor in Hakeem Jeffries. Another point.

3) Donald Trump is indicted in the state of New York. Don't ask me about the federal charges, but I honestly believe NY AG Tish James is going to try to prosecute Donald Trump, and it's going to be one of the most fateful chapters in our modern political history.

Not yet. Trump was able to delay indictments until 2023, and maybe further.

4) COVID-19 deaths will surpass 1.2 million total in the US. The good news here is that 2022 will thankfully have fewer deaths than 2020 or 2021, but not by much. We'll still have to contend with a very bad winter, but if we can get past that, I think there's finally some hope.

We got to 1.1 million. Not quite as bad as predicted, but still very close. Half credit.

5) The Supreme Court will gut/overturn Roe v. Wade. At this point the writing is on the courtroom wall. Roe is dead, and individual states will move to either regulate safe abortion out of existence, criminalize it with heavy penalties for women, doctors, and health care professionals, make crossing state lines to get a abortion elsewhere illegal, ban it altogether, or all of the above. It won't end abortion, just safe ones. It will change America for a generation.

I wish I was wrong here, but this was patently obvious back in December 2021 when I predicted this. A full point I dearly wish I did not get.

6) The Supreme Court will also gut executive agencies. This will be a massive win for corporations, but the bottom line is agencies like OSHA, FDA, CDC, SEC, EPA, you name it, it will be essentially turned off. I don't know what all will be stricken down, but it's going to be a huge mess when it happens. This too will change America for a generation.

This too was eminently predictable, and we'll be paying dearly for the West Virginia v EPA decision for decades to come. Another point I badly wish I was wrong about.

7) The Dow will finish the year above 36,000. I mean that's where it ended the year, so what I basically mean is I'm not predicting a recession, yay! I hope I'm right. If I'm correct on some of these previous predictions, well, things can go badly quickly.

A complete whiff here, the Dow closed the year at 33,145 with two recessionary GDP quarters in the first half, and the Fed tightening the screws with no letup in sight.

8) Marvel films will make another billion in 2022. Since it seems movie-watching in theaters is now officially back as of December, May's Doctor Strange sequel, July's Thor: Love and Thunder, and November's Black Panther 2 should easily gross a billion combined, if not more.

And even with as much criticism as Marvel's Phase 4 took in 2022, people still went to see the MCU. The three movies made nearly $1.2 billion collectively in the domestic market, and worldwide made a hefty $2.5 billion. No failures here, the box office is back, and in other movies, Top Gun: Maverick almost clearing $1.5 billion worldwide by itself, with Avatar: The Way of Water still going strong at $1.16 billion and Jurassic Park: Dominion clearing a billion even.  

9) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy is booted from the House GOP leadership. I don't know who will lead the House GOP in 2023, but I can guarantee you it won't be McCarthy. And I think things will be so bad he'll make his plans known, like Pelosi, that he's "stepping down". The difference is with McCarthy, it won't be a choice.

Not so far, but we'll find out in a week, won't we? 

10) ZVTS will roll on for another year. It's because of you guys, you know this, and we'll sail into year 14 and then some. I want to honestly thank you, the readers. When I started this back in 2008, I had no idea where the country would go. I made the journey along with you, and I'm glad you're here, new or old.

A free point as usual, and the sentiment stands.  This blog is old enough to be driving in the parking lot. I never thought I'd make it this far, let alone have you all still with me.

Thank you.

I finish out the year with 6.5 out of 10, a better than average year for my scorecard.

As usual, my 2023 predictions coming later today. 

Holidaze Week: The Circus From Hell, or, Church's Chickens

Increasingly, the price for GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy to become Speaker is to approve a two-year long, all GOP "Select Committee" to investigate everything they can think of, along with regular subpoenas, prime-time hearings, and a nearly unlimited mandate.

Conservatives say they want to model the panel off the 1970s Church Committee, which conducted a landmark investigation that uncovered significant surveillance abuses among the intelligence community and the IRS, leading to the formation of the Senate Intelligence Committee. But it’s a high bar that’s almost certain to fall short. While the Church Committee was a bipartisan operation, Democrats have frequently criticized the GOP’s targeting of the FBI, and their party is highly unlikely to help fuel probes they’ve already derided as political sideshows.

And Democrats are already gearing up to rebut GOP investigations next year. Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, who will be on the frontlines as the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee, summed up how he views his party’s responsibilities as it deals with Republican probes: “a truth squad in the sense that we will have to debunk conspiracy theories.”

And a former senior aide to the Democratic senator who chaired the Church Committee has also criticized Republicans for trying to make the Church comparison specifically, accusing them of wanting to invoke “Church’s legacy not to push for real solutions … but to obtain impunity for themselves and punish their enemies.”

But underscoring how much the “Church” rhetoric has injected itself into the party’s thinking, McCarthy, during a recent Fox Business appearance, tipped his hand toward the idea, saying that “you’re almost going to have to have a Church-style investigation to reform the FBI.”

McCarthy, notably, didn’t specifically mention setting up a new committee, and those comments would also align with previously planned investigations. The ambiguous comments come as the Californian tries to lock down the votes to claim the speaker’s gavel in a thin majority and wants to avoid alienating any more members. A spokesperson for the GOP leader didn’t respond to multiple questions about whether McCarthy was endorsing starting a new panel, or just an investigation into the Justice Department and FBI, which is already in the works.

It’s hardly the first time he’s faced pressure from his right flank to acquiesce to going further on investigations.

House Republicans say they now expect to probe the treatment of individuals who were jailed for participating in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, where a mob of then-President Donald Trump’s supporters breached the building as Congress was certifying Joe Biden’s win. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) previously pressed McCarthy on an investigation last month during a closed-door conference meeting.

Comer noted that there was an ongoing discussion about which panel “needs to take the lead on that,” adding that the Oversight Committee will have “a lot on the platter but we’ll do whatever we’re asked to do from leadership.”

McCarthy has also threatened to subpoena intelligence officials who signed a letter in 2020 warning that a New York Post story about Biden’s son Hunter might have its origins in a Russian disinformation operation. And conservatives also think they’ve moved McCarthy on impeaching Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. He hasn’t officially backed the step, but opened the door initially in April and then signaled an impeachment could be on the table, depending on the results of investigations, during a trip to the southern border in November.

Asked about the California Republican’s remarks, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) — whom McCarthy opponents have used as a figurehead for the opposition — noted that McCarthy’s latest border remarks came “after he knew that he was facing somebody who was going to possibly deny him being speaker.”

But conservatives’ vision for the new select committee could stretch far beyond just the FBI and Justice Department — two long-running targets of the party’s ire — by stepping into other jurisdictional lanes.

Roy pointed to three other entities that could fall under its purview, in addition to the FBI and Justice Department: Fauci and the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Department of Education and the IRS and money that will let the agency hire new staff. Those are all areas that other committees have indicated they plan to investigate. And while Roy acknowledged that potential overlap, he added, “You still want your best prosecutors prosecuting the case.”