Thursday, September 4, 2008

Action/Reaction

How was Palin's speech received?

Steve Clemons says "Saint Sarah came to Saint Paul."

But despite my substantive differences with Palin, this performance tonight beat expectations and moved her to a new level. Her competition at this incredibly flat, low energy confab in St. Paul is thin -- so one could easily argue that she had a lot of room to pull off a success. But that is too cynical.

She did a great job -- and stared her doubters and the challenge down.

There is much about Sarah Palin we don't know yet. Unlike Biden and Obama, we didn't get much time to have our own public vetting of her before McCain's decision -- so there will be more fits and starts and twists and turns as other parts of her life are dredged up, over-analyzed, and judged by the American public.

But this is going to be very close race, particularly if nothing new and surprising shows up on Palin.

What no one will say just yet -- but which I think the McCain folks tried to convey is that "Saint Sarah" just made her real debut in Saint Paul.

Steve Benen believed Sarah Palin swung for the fences, but missed.

Judging a speech like this, it's probably best to consider the goals and the audience. Going into the speech, I expected Palin to try to connect to a mainstream audience, demonstrating competence, credibility, and readiness. She already enjoys the support of the GOP base; Palin has to work on convincing everyone else.

And yet, she (or, more accurately, the McCain campaign aides who wrote her speech) went in a different direction, aiming to shore up the party's base even more. Instead of seriousness, Palin went for biting and sarcastic partisanship. Instead of presenting herself as a trustworthy leader, Palin proved herself an attack-dog ideologue. Instead of answering questions about readiness, she answered questions about who she hates and how much. Palin not only steered clear of the concerns of swing voters, she practically thumbed her nose at them.

What's more, Palin did this with a striking dishonest speech, filled with the kind of obvious and transparent falsehoods that even half-way knowledgeable observers can debunk off the top of their heads. Palin didn't just lie, she lied brazenly, as if to say, "I don't care."

Kevin Drum was impressed by the style, but not the substance.
As expected, she's doing a very good job. In a way, she's every bit the pit bull Giuliani is, all the way down to the withering scorn and sarcastic asides. But she brings it off better than Rudy: it's more straightforward, more earnest, and yes, more small town. I don't think this speech will stop the questions about her selection, but it's certainly going to have an impact. She's coming off very well in her appointed role, and making a tough, smart, and very appealing first impression.

But holy cow, can this woman pull off the culture war stuff, or what? I gather that she didn't, in fact, ever really support Pat Buchanan, but she's every bit his disciple and successor in spirit. Wow.

And maybe just one more comment: for all that both Giuliani and Palin attacked Obama for being too full of himself, I don't think I've ever heard two more adulatory speeches in my life. You'd think John McCain was the second coming of George Washington the way they sang their nonstop panegyrics to him.

NY Times columnist Gail Collins pointed out Palin was better than McSame's other choices.

Palin’s speech totally swallowed up all the attention in St. Paul, leaving nothing whatsoever for speakers like Mitt Romney, who celebrated the convention Reform Day by announcing: “We need change all right! Change from a liberal Washington to a conservative Washington.” Tragically, nobody seemed interested enough to point out that this made no sense. It’s a long way from the golden days when Mitt invented the “Washington is Broken” slogan, and people took the time to ask him exactly who he thought had done the breaking.

It’s been one big reunion in Minnesota for the old gang — Rudy and Mitt and Fred and Mike. Together again, for the first time since those primary debates. Reliving the golden days in which they managed to convince Republican voters that no matter what John McCain’s defects, he could not possibly be as bad a candidate as they were.

Dan Balz of the Washington Post says the hockey mom scored a goal.
Palin gave the impression of an entire party rolling up its sleeves and digging in, never mind whether some of its arguments were illogical or shot full of holes, or even blatantly ridiculous, as when she portrayed the party as pro-environment and Giuliani earlier portrayed it as feminist-minded.

She proved herself in the great arena; that's what counts politically. Nobody could watch that speech and still consider her a joke, no matter how flimsy her credentials and qualifications may seem on paper. The joke, it seems, is on those who'd been laughing at her. Last night the laughing ended -- and the cheering began.

And the Wall Street Journal's John Fund says it's a race now.

Some hard-bitten political observers I know were uncharacteristically impressed with the Palin speech. Hal Stratton, a former Attorney General of New Mexico, wrote to me as follows: "That's what we out west call openin' a whole can of whip a— on your opponents."

Other observers were more restrained, but still impressed. "She passed her first major test, and if the reaction of the crowd in the hall is any indication, with flying colors," says Peter Brown, the deputy director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "So much for the comparisons with Dan Quayle, who couldn't have given that speech if his life depended on it. Obviously, Sarah Palin probably went down better in Warren, Michigan than she did in Washington, D.C. -- but that was the whole point of her speech and her candidacy." Indeed, while Mrs. Palin certainly won't swing any deeply blue states in John McCain's direction, she may have an impact in swaying independent voters as well as boosting GOP turnout in swing states such as Colorado, Nevada and Michigan.

One of the standard operating theories this Election Year is that Barack Obama and the Democrats are much more energized, excited and willing to work hard for victory in November.

After Sarah Palin's remarkably effective speech, I don't think any pundits or politicians will be able to count on a decisive Democratic enthusiasm edge. Sarah Palin electrified the hall, and from what I can tell from my e-mail inbox that excitement is being replicated in living rooms across the country.

The general consensus is she energized the base dramatically...but did she swing the center?

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