Friday, September 19, 2008

Devil's In The Details

And the details of Uberbailout are coming at some...point...in the future. Kinda. Maybe. We'll see.
Here's what we know so far:

The plan: The federal government would buy up "hundreds of billions of dollars" of illiquid mortgage assets at a deep discount from banks. The Treasury Department is likely to run the program directly, unlike the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s that led to the creation of the Resolution Trust Company.

"The federal government must implement a program to remove these illiquid assets that are weighing down our financial institutions and threatening our economy," said Paulson.

What remains to be seen is how the Treasury Department will structure the purchases and what price they'll pay.

The cost: While the proposal calls for the purchase of "hundreds of billions of dollars" of bad loans, it's unknown what taxpayers will ultimately pay for the bailout.

The government will likely buy the assets at below-market rates and hold onto them until the market recovers. Ideally, the loans could then be sold at a gain.

"The government could make a profit, a substantial profit," said Jaret Seiberg, a financial services analyst at the Stanford Group, a policy research firm. "The pricing mechanism is going to be central."

Will it work: The jury is still out, although experts are cautiously optimistic the plan will help the housing crisis.

The plan will help banks shore up their balance sheets by removing hard-to-value assets. This would address the seemingly endless rounds of writedowns and capital raising that have been rocking the financial sector.

Without these bad loans weighing on their books, banks may be more willing to lend. Or at least that's the goal.

The problem is that the bailout will not automatically make banks profitable, nor will it stop the slide in home values that is wreaking havoc on the economy.

Will it help homeowners: It's unclear at this point. If the government buys an entire securitized loan, it could opt to help struggling homeowners by modifying the terms. This could include reducing a loan's interest rate or principal balance.

But it could prove difficult to snap up all the securities sold on a mortgage, experts said. And as long as investors still hold a piece, they could block any changes to the loan.

If the plan doesn't stem the tide of foreclosures, home prices will not stabilize and the economy will not recover, experts said.

The more I hear about this plan, the less I like it. It seems like nothing more than the mother of all corporate welfare programs and sets a horrendous precedent. Surely the airlines and auto industry will want a piece of this action too.

Taxpaying homeowners won't see a dime. Worse yet, the millions of Americans who don't have a mortgage and rent aren't going to see a dime either, but will be expected to pay their taxes towards this.

And even better, Republicans are going to say that helping out ordinary Americans will be too expensive and not fiscally responsible. It's 54 days before a Presidential election. There's no way this is going to get passed without a disatrous amount of pork, riders, and perks for fat cats. Both sides will threaten to block the bill.

You thought this week was bad? Try next.

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