Thursday, November 6, 2008

Oh Yeah Barry, About That Economy...

The stock market got hyper on the election, from Oct 27 to November 4 the Dow went up by 17%, the S&P 500 up 15%, NASDAQ up 10%. Yesterday all that came to a disastrous end. The Dow lost 500 points yesterday and will probably have a similarly bad day again today.

We're still in a bad, bad recession. 4Q sales numbers are dismal across the board and there's no light at the end of the tunnel. President-Elect Obama or not, there's still ten more weeks of Bush to deal with as a lame duck, and the reality of the situation is that holiday sales are going to be a graveyard for a lot of companies this year.

The fact of the matter is Ford, GM, and Chrysler may not make it January 20.
In coming weeks, companies and their lobbyists plan to "dial up" their urgency. Industry plans to underscore its belief that its immediate problems are not of its own making -- that the dire predicament is closely linked to the global credit crunch and survival depends on federal intervention.

While GM and Ford struggle, prospects at Chrysler LLC are the most uncertain. People involved in discussions about its future say the smallest of the U.S. manufacturers could merge, be spun off or be pushed into bankruptcy if not helped soon.

Engler said a Chrysler failure could cost up to 1 million jobs throughout the economy.

"It's not just the three auto companies, it's suppliers, all the way down the chain," Engler said.

If Chrysler goes under, you can tack a full point on the umemployment percentage from the ripple efects. Obama needs to name his economic team soon and get to work on what part of his campaign promises stay and which go...because another ten weeks of a collapsing global economy is something we can't afford at all.

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