Thursday, July 8, 2010

It's A Nuclear Melt-Up, Part 2

The cause:
The latest consumer credit number continues the decline we have seen in recent months, plunging from $2424.4 billion in April to $2415.3 billion in May, a $9.1 billion decline, or 4.5% annualized, on consensus of $2.3 billion. Yet the biggest stunner was the April revision which was whacked from +$1 billion to a revised -$14.9 billion! In other words, there has been a $24 billion decline in consumer credit in the past two months. The biggest hit was, as usual, experienced by revolving credit accounts, which fell by a 10.5 annualized rate to $830.8 billion, from $838.2 billion in April, and just north of $910 billion a year earlier.
$24 billion in consumer credit lost, removed from the consumer-driven economy, in our continuing deflationary spiral.  That's bad, people.

The effect:
Stocks rose for a third straight day Thursday on the Labor Department's report of a larger than expected drop in the number of newly laid-off people seeking unemployment benefits. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 121 points after climbing 275 Wednesday and advancing modestly Tuesday. The 4.7 percent gain in that time is the Dow's best three-day move since mid-May.
The melt-up is here.  Stocks are no longer following logical rules.

Here there be dragons.

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