Thursday, November 11, 2010

And We Will Rain Doom Down Upon Your Doomed Heads

Larry Sabato reminds Republicans that they should probably stop moving furniture in the White House right now.   While the Village will certainly voice the question "Is Obama even relevant" many times over the next six months or so, as we gear up to see who his eventual Republican contender will be as our lantern-holding guide to the Underworld, Sabato speaks of known unknowns that we should, well, know.


Despite his upset victory over heavily favored Hillary Clinton in the ’08 Democratic contest and his easy win over a much more seasoned John McCain in November two years ago, Barack Obama lacks the political skills necessary to adjust to the new realities of divided government. Unlike Bill Clinton, Obama is an inflexible liberal who couldn’t find the center with both hands, even if his career depended on it. And there is no chance at all the new Republican leadership in Congress could over-reach and repeat the errors of Newt Gingrich and his allies. The GOP legislative caucus contains no core of rigid ideologues that might go too far and create an opening for Obama.

Historically, incumbent presidents who have sought another term have won them by a two-to-one margin. Those aren’t impressive odds. How many of us would bet on a horse with minimal chances like that? Since 1900 only one incumbent president whose party captured the White House from the other party four years earlier (Jimmy Carter) has been beaten. The other incumbent losers—Taft, Hoover, Ford, and the senior Bush—were from a party that had held the White House for two or more consecutive terms. But the key is that Carter and Obama are practically twins; both won the Nobel Peace Prize. Enough said. Moreover, the present moment is unprecedentedly perilous for an incumbent president. There’s really no comparison in the existence of the American Republic, save for about a dozen crises like the Civil War, economic panics, the Great Depression, world wars, and 9/11.

Democrats may also place false hope in the fact that the next presidential election will have a turnout twenty full percentage points higher than we saw in the midterm—probably about 40 million more people than voted on Nov. 2. No doubt these “midterm-missing” voters are disproportionately 18-34 years old and members of minority groups, segments of the population that backed President Obama by margins ranging from 62% to 95% in 2008. Obama can’t seem to get them to cast a ballot except when he’s on the ballot. Well, yes, he’ll be on the ballot in 2012, but they’re likely disillusioned with him, too.

So yes, despite all that 200 plus years of history or so, Obama doesn't stand a chance, and the political climate can't possible swing back to the Dems after just two years.

I wonder how many folks in the Village will miss the joke at their own expense, which is of course the real exercise.

3 comments:

  1. Zander, I can't even read this.

    I had a student from Kazakhstan ask me the day after the election if Obama had lost all his power.

    No, he didn't hear it from international press, but from one of his own American teachers.

    I tried to explain the veto and veto proof majorities. I hope that made an impact.

    I am resolved every day that there is a significant number of people in our country who just do not like the fact that a black man is president.

    Like I said to one of my colleagues today when he expressed surprise at the 2012 elections already starting -- that shit started the day Obama was elected.

    I knew it would be hard. I never knew it would be this hard.

    I like your blog and I visit sometimes, but don't' often comment. Keep blogging. My little blog doesn't get so many hits, but I'm chipping away at the hate radio here in Houston.

    I get exasperated at times, but I keep on going. I look for your posts on memeorandum for sanity.

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  2. Is this man being sarcastic, because I can barely read this myself.

    Obama is an inflexible liberal? The GOP caucus has no inflexible idealogues? Carter and Obama are twins because they both won the Nobel Peace Prize?

    Mr. Sabato is being facetious, isn't he?

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  3. yeah, while this guy makes some valid points, it's hard to take anybody seriously when they're referring to obama as an "inflexible liberal".

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