Monday, April 4, 2011

Last Call

Looking like the end game for both Ivory Coast and Libya this week.  First, with French and UN forces in Ivory Coast, embattled strongman Laurent Gbagbo looks like he's cornered.

Forces loyal to President Alassane Ouattara have surrounded the residence of rival Laurent Gbagbo, a spokesman for Ouattara told CNN Monday night.


Patrick Achi said he is about 80% sure that Gbagbo is still inside the presidential palace and will be captured by Tuesday.

"We do not see why he shall not surrender," Achi said, adding the new government may seek to have Gbagbo tried by the International Court of Justice.

Second, looks like there's a possible deal for Qaddafi's surrender in Libya.

The envoy sent by Moammar Gadhafi to the West is testing foreign governments' willingness to accept one of the embattled Libyan leader's sons as his successor, a source close to the Libyan leadership said Monday.


Under the proposal, Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, 38, would take over from his father and help to usher in swift reform, the source said.

Once thought to be a leading reformer inside the Libyan government, Saif has emerged as one of his father's most visible defenders since the start of the unrest.

To avoid instability, the transition must "be a gradual handover of power," the source said.

The source also stressed the need to negotiate a "respectful solution" so that the elder Gadhafi is not seen as being forced out. Moammar Gadhafi has led Libya for 42 years.

We'll see.  But even if both strongmen are deposed peacefully and the fighting stops, it doesn't mean all the problems are over.  If anything, the last nine years have taught us that the problems truly start when the war stops.

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