Thursday, September 5, 2013

Orange Julius Squeezed Out?

We've heard stories about John Boehner stepping down as House Speaker before, so I'll believe it when I see it.  Like it or not, he's too interested in self preservation to go without a fight.  The difference is this time, Boehner's former aides and compatriots are saying he no longer thinks the fight may be worth it.

All summer, rumors have been swirling around the Hill and K Street that the speaker has had enough and that 2014 would be his last year with the gavel. Then the message went out in July: Boehner (R-Ohio) is not leaving.

Boehner told his inner circle at dinner that there was no truth to the talk, and authorized his people to spread the word around town. A story appeared in Politico the next day, reaffirming Boehner's stated commitment to stay past 2014.

"These inside-the-Beltway parlor games take place every two years. The speaker has made clear publicly he intends to remain in his position in the next Congress," Boehner spokesman Michael Steel told HuffPost.

But not everyone close to the 63-year-old speaker is so sure. "He has to say that. He can't not say that. The minute you say [you're leaving], you're done," said one former GOP leadership aide who is part of Boehner's circle. "Everybody around him thinks this is his last term."

Despite the effort by Boehner to tamp down speculation that he will depart the House after the 2014 midterms, multiple cooks in Boehner's kitchen cabinet think the Republican is still strongly considering making his exit just over a year from now.

"I'd be surprised if he did [stay]," said one former senior aide to Boehner, who, like many consulted for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity to protect their relationships. (HuffPost spoke to four top former Boehner aides, two current aides, five former leadership aides close to Boehner's inner circle, and a GOP operative on familiar terms with his circle.)

Again, Boehner may be forced out more than anything.  Yes, he helped get the House back for the GOP in 2010, but it's been disastrous for them since.  2012 was not a good year for them.  It it wasn't for the state gerrymandering, the GOP would have been in as much trouble as they were in 2006 and 2008.

Besides, it's gotten to the point where neither faction of the GOP can stand the guy anymore.  The McCain wing ignores him, and the Tea Party wing openly hates the guy.  But who would step in, Cantor?  He's blown it too.

Who would want the job, anyway?

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