I also think there should be a strong presumption against someone who supported the Iraq war. And I'd make an even stronger case against selecting him on strategic grounds. Even if we (very generously) assume that Bayh is the extremely rare candidate who could attract home-state votes as a running mate, there's the problem that Indiana at the presidential level (whatever the polls at this early date say) is a deep, deep red state. If Indiana's close enough that Bayh could put Obama over the top, Obama won't need it. Bayh's OK, but he hardly seems like the best Obama can do.
UPDATE: As elm notes, I neglected the most important point: it would almost certainly result in the loss of a Senate seat as well.
All of those are outstanding points.
Obama's Veep sends a message about what part of his campaign platform he wants to reinforce (among Dems) as well as covering what he lacks (among Independents and Obamicans), but it's the former that interests me.
Who he picks, and particularly what those person's positions on Iraq, the constitutionality of the executive branch's actions over the last 8 years, and what state they can deliver, are vital to defining what Obama considers to be his top priority.
I'm not sure on Bayh's positions on torture and Executive Stupidity, but on points one and three, he's not the right guy for the job at all. As Scott said, if Obama is doing well enough that Bayh puts Indiana in play, he's got 300 electoral votes in the bag already and he's just running up the score. Tim Kaine is a better choice on that front for Virginia but again there's a lot of questions about Kaine too.
Booman has an excellent rundown of the pros and cons of the current crop of Barry's Veep choices.
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