Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Documenting The Atrocities

Another liveblog of the markets today.

9:35 AM -- Five minutes in. AIG is already at less than two dollars, Dow down 125.

9:45 AM -- Some fighting back. AIG hovering around $2.50, Dow down 70.

9:50 AM -- Goldman Sachs missed its earning target by about 70%. Stock down 10%. AIG still hovering around $2.50, Dow off 60 points.

10:20 AM -- AIG and Dow still hovering, but WaMu is actually up about 10 cents.

10:30 AM -- AIG struggling up to $3. Dow treading water. Rumors of a Fed rate cut are limiting the damage.

10:45 AM -- AIG still at $3, Dow still slightly down, just treading water until the Fed decides on a rate cut now later today. Anything less than a half point cut will cause the market to drop like a stone.

11:00 AM -- News breaking that the Fed is meeting to discuss AIG, a Fed bailout is now "back on the table." AIG stock is climbing to $4 a share and threatening to break into positive territory.

11:05 AM -- Dow back above 11,000 mark. Investors are "confident the Fed will take significant action today."

11:20 AM -- Moral Hazard clause in action. Many talking heads are saying if AIG doesn't get a substantial taxpayer bailout that it's over, and that the Fed has no choice. More treading water, Dow slightly under 11k.

11:30 AM -- Dow back down 50, AIG back down 2 bucks to under $2.50, back to where we were at 10.

11:35 AM -- Market is depressed back to the 10 AM level doldrums because the private sector solution to AIG's money problems is now "definitely dead". It's a Fed bailout or bust now.

12:00 PM -- Dow up 20, AIG back close to $3. Still treading water until a rate cut/bailout decision is made. McSame says "taxpayers should not be on the hook" for AIG. For the first time in years I agree with the guy. Go figure.

12:35 PM -- Dow and AIG are still treading water. Nobody wants to make a move right now until the rate cut/bailout situation is resolved.

1:15 PM -- Dow's up 70 or so, AIG above $3, but still down a third for the day. Obama's planning to give a big speech on the economy today in Golden, CO.

1:25 PM -- WaMu is up 10% on news of a possible deal with JP Morgan Chase.

2:00 PM -- Former AIG CEO Hank Greenburg is leading a group of investors who may be making a play to buy out AIG in a proxy fight. Could this be the white knight? Does it even matter if the white knight arrives when there's an army of problems waiting? AIG still floating around $3.

2:15 PM -- NO RATE CUT. Dow is dropping, AIG down to $2.50, no word on an AIG bailout yet.

3:25 PM -- Dow up substantially, up 150. AIG above $4 now, once again threatening to go into positive territory.

3:35 PM -- Reality rears its ugly head. AIG down 30% again at $3.25, Dow up 70.

3:40 PM -- Bloomberg is reporting the Fed is now officially considering making a deal to save AIG later today, reversing its stance. Happy markets, yay capitalism.

3:45 PM -- Word is Lehman's core business has just been bought by Barclays, and that's got the market juiced in the final 15 along with the possible Fed bailout.

4:00 PM -- Final score, Dow up 141, AIG down to $3.75. Street is licking its chops waiting on the details of the "bridge loan to nowhere". The Street has now "factored in" AIG getting $70-$90 billion dollars before the market opens tomorrow from the Fed.

We'll see how that goes.

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