Worried about "the tightening?"Obama has this thing. All we have to do is vote.Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.
Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a comfortable national lead. According to polling conducted over the weekend during the tracking poll "tightening," Obama reaches 264 electoral votes in states where he leads by 9.5% or more, passes 277 in Virginia where he leads by 8.0%, and hits 286 in states where he leads by 7.3% or more. So, he is actually doing even better in the Electoral College, where 270 votes are needed to win, than he is doing in national polls where he leads by 7%.
If all printers were determined not to print anything till they were sure it would offend nobody, there would be very little printed. -- Benjamin Franklin
Monday, October 27, 2008
Don't Sweat The Polls
As Chris Bowers reminds us at OpenLeft, the last week of this election is just statistical noise. Obama wins running away, it's only the degree of victory. Remember, the most lopsided popular vote victory was not either of Reagan's electoral "landslides", but Clinton's 8.5% in 1996.
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