Remember Baghdad?

Leaks to McClatchy on the latest National Intelligence Estimate of Iraq paint a very bleak picture of the post-surge Iraqi landscape.

More than a half-dozen officials spoke to McClatchy on condition of anonymity because NIE's, the most authoritative analyses produced by the U.S. intelligence community, are restricted to the president, his senior aides and members of Congress except in rare instances when just the key findings are made public.

The new NIE, which reflects the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, has significant implications for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, whose differences over the Iraq war are a major issue in the presidential campaign.

The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate.

But McCain could also use the findings to try to strengthen his argument for keeping U.S. troops in Iraq until conditions stabilize.

For Obama, the report raises questions about whether he could fulfill his pledge to withdraw most of the remaining 152,000 U.S. troops _ he would leave some there to deal with al Qaida and to protect U.S. diplomats and civilians _ within 16 months of taking office so that more U.S. forces could be sent to battle the growing Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.

This will be a nasty issue here. Remember, the second Obama wins the election, Iraq becomes his problem. It will be argued by Republicans that "conditions on the ground" will now prevent Obama from "declaring defeat" in Iraq. The GOP will do everything possible to now do three things:

1. Prevent Obama from withdrawing troops in Iraq.
   
2. Blame Obama for the continued deterioration in Iraq.
3. Pressure Obama for another TEH SURGE!!11!1
   

In other words, they will try to force Bush's failed policies on Obama. Guaranteed. Iraq will most likely explode again into sectarian violence again. The most basic problems are still present, and they are mostly caused by our presence in Iraq.

Obama must be prepared to follow through on his promises, and more than ever we need to get those 60 Senate seats in order to get action taken.