Zandar's Crystal Ball

I suppose it's prediction time for tomorrow.

It comes down to which models you believe in, the old 2004 turnout models, or the new 2008 turnout models. The new models are the ones showing Obama winning this by 8 points or so, a Clinton-Dole style victory that gives him 330-340 EVs or so (OH, FL, VA, CO, NM, NV) or if the turnout models are right, he scores a Democratic tidal wave that gives him a mind-melting 400+ Electoral Votes.

In this Blue Tsunami model, Obama takes GA, NC, MO, IN, and even AZ, MT and ND, giving him 406. It would be a complete meltdown of the GOP.

But the GOP insists that the 2008 turnout models are completely wrong, that low turnout favors the Republicans this year, high turnout favors the Dems, but extremely high turnout again favors the GOP because of the twin motivations of the media picking on Sarah Palin, and the press crowning Barack Obama beforehand.

The GOP "landslide" model works like this, basically, five groups of voters will be motivated to vote for the Republican ticket:

1. Disaffected Hillary Clinton voters, (PUMAs),
2. Centrist Democrats who think Obama's a Socialist (McSame/Blue Dog Dems),
3. White Voters who think Obama played the race card too often (Bradley Effectees),
4. Female Voters who think the Dems are sexist (Palinocrats)
5. Voters who have been convinced by the internet rumors swirling around Obama (Low-Infocrats)

And if enough of these voters show up, they will either counter Obama's ground game or simply overwhelm it. The polling outfits are all wrong, says this theory. The turnout percentages will be almost identical to 2004, and McSame will pull out victory in the tossup states (NC, FL, OH, CO, VA, MO, IN, AZ, NV) plus PA (in the narrow win scenario, McSame 281, Obama 257) and will actually go on to flip Minnesota, New Hampshire, and possibly even Wisconsin, giving the GOP a staggering victory.

They are especially counting on the defection of the PUMA voter and the Palinocrats to give them an unprecedented win. The model states that Obama's decision of Joe Biden over Hillary doomed him from the start.

It's crazy, I know. But it's certainly possible...people do win the lottery too.

So, the four outcomes are:

1. Obama total landslide (406-132)
2. Obama strong victory (340-198)
3. McSame squeaker (281-257, PA the decider)
4. McSame strong victory (310-228)

I'm betting on the second. I'm not ruling out the first or the third. The last one there is...not going to happen. I'm leaning towards the first however. The barrier between 1 and 2 there is not that much, frankly. If he holds on and takes PA and VA, the barrier falls if NC and GA go for Obama tomorrow night. If Obama scores either one of those it's going to be closer to scenario 1 (375+) than 2, if he gets both the national race could be over by 9 PM. Missouri and Indiana will tell the tale, if they too go Obama then he's looking at reaching 400 and #1 up there.

Likewise if PA falls, Obama is in serious trouble. You'll know McSame is on his way to victory should the Keystone state be the keystone and he holds on in NC and GA. Should he take VA too, it's going to be a very, very long night for the Obama campaign.

So, the states to watch tomorrow night are PA, NC, GA, and VA. Whoever takes 3 of 4 wins the election, because they will most likely go on to win both Florida and Ohio, and the Presidency.