The Chessboard Ahead

Christopher Hayes at The Nation takes a swing at what the GOP is up to on Obama's stimulus package:

Oh sure, they'll oppose it. They'll say it's too expensive, that it won't work, that it will be wasteful. Some will vote against it, though given the popularity of both Obama and the stimulus itself, less than you might think.

But their heart won't be in it.

Here's my sense of their long-term strategy. This isn't based on anything other than observation and chatting around the Capitol. I think they'll let the stimulus pass and, indeed will be quite fine with it being very big. Much bigger than it is now: a trillion dollars or more. Because once the stimulus passes, Republicans are going to say: OK. We're done. Meaning: no more money. They'll point to the $700 billion for the TARP, plus the $1 trillion for the stimulus, and they'll say: we've spent all the money there is to be spent. There's no money for healthcare. There's no money for anything, really except the Pentagon. They'll run against deficits, waste and bailout nation.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think this is flat out wrong. Not going to happen. They'll run on burning the stimulus and burning it hard, because if they allow the stimulus and block universal health care, they lose on all fronts, period. The Right will never forgive them for allowing the stimulus through, the rest of the nation will tar and feather them if they kill health-care, and come 2010 the Democrats will actaully have a larger majority, if that's even possible (which it most certainly is.)

The long-term strategy is pretty simple: oppose everything Obama wants to do, then blame Obama when things get worse. One man's obstructionist party is another man's loyal, dissenting opposition. The problem with this is that the Chamber of Commerce business wing of the GOP wants this bailout badly, and the conservative Jesus wing of the party most certainly does not.

The practical result is the Chamber guys may...MAY...jump ship and go to Obama. If that happens, the GOP is toast. But if the Jesus wing talks the Chamber wing into staying, look out.