Sunday, January 25, 2009

Hell Week

While last week's numbers on Wall Street were dismal, this week's earnings and 4th quarter GDP figures are going to have the market testing those late 2002 market lows.

Only 10% of the 85 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have topped forecasts. Another 60% have met estimates and another 30% have missed, according to Thomson Reuters.

"We're in the process of absorbing just how bad the fourth quarter was," said Bernard McGinn, CEO of McGinn Investment Management. "We had a feeling things were terrible, now we're getting proof of it. The question is 'where do we go now?"

This week also brings the latest Fed policy meeting - although it's likely to be less influential than usual since the central bankers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged near zero, said Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management

Investors will also digest reports on housing, consumer confidence and leading economic indicators early in the week. The end of the week brings the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report. It's expected to have fallen by an annual rate of 5.2%, it biggest plunge in 26 years.

I honestly think the GDP numbers will be worse than this, in the neighborhood of a 6% drop or more. If that happens, we could see numbers under 7,000 very soon on the Dow.

And let's not forget, the week after will bring the January unemployment numbers.

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