Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The Recession Is Officially Global

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting some very dire economic numbers globally for 2009.
The IMF said the United States remains at the epicenter of the crisis and said it is critical U.S. authorities address mounting toxic debt and uncertainty about banks' solvency.

It revised down its forecast for the U.S. to a 2.8 percent contraction this year and no growth in 2010 as the ravages of a credit squeeze, falling house and equity prices and high levels of uncertainty play out.

Meanwhile, the euro zone economy will shrink by 4.2 percent this year and fall a further 0.4 percent in 2010, the IMF said, criticizing the bloc for weak public policy responses and coordination.

Ahh, but it gets worse for the rest of the world:
It predicted the former Soviet economies would shrink by 5.1 percent this year and grow by just 1.2 percent in 2010, compared with a solid 5.5 percent pace of expansion in 2008.

In Asia, where countries are being harder hit by a drop in global trade than by the financial crisis, the IMF said Japan's recession would be far deeper than previously thought, while China's economy will grow at a much slower pace.

In Japan, the IMF expects 2009 output to fall 6.2 percent, far worse than its January forecast for a 2.6 percent decline.

For China, the IMF trimmed its 2009 growth forecast to 6.5 percent from 6.7 percent, which would be half the growth rate recorded in 2007, and down sharply from last year's 9 percent.

It said the hard-won gains in Africa are being threatened by the global downturn, which is reducing demand for African goods and curtailing worker remittances.

The crisis also has not spared the Middle East, where the large drop in oil prices is hitting the region and reversal of capital flows are also taking a toll.

The same is true for countries in Latin America that are being hit by commodity price drops and where the biggest threat is a protracted financial deleveraging in advanced economies that will lead to a prolonged halt in capital inflows, the IMF said.

It's bad all over, and problems will extend into 2011 for many parts of the world.

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