Bang Bang Blame

This article from Thursday's Bloomberg on the economics of U.S. gun and ammo sales is very interesting reading, but it's most interesting for what it dangerously refuses to say.

“The U.S. is by far the largest importer of pistols and revolvers, sporting shotguns and small-caliber ammunition,” the study said. “Increases in demand in the U.S. explain almost half of the global rise in exports of small arms.” The research group is financed by the foreign ministries of Belgium, Canada, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the U.K.

Companies like Austria’s Glock GmbH, the world’s biggest pistol exporter, and Alliant Techsystems Inc., the largest ammunition supplier to the U.S. military, are benefiting from rising sales. Authorized small-arms trades rose 28 percent, or $653 million, between 2000 and 2006, according to the survey.

Researchers used 2006 data because it was the “most comprehensive available,” said Helsinki-based Nicholas Marsh, an author of the report, today in a telephone interview. Countries routinely enter export data into the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database two years after a product has been sold, he said.

“A country can become a major global player just by developing an export market in the U.S,” the report said, citing HS Produkt d.o.o., a Croatian pistol maker that ships 98 percent of its products to the U.S. and increased sales to $27 million in 2006 from $1 million in 2000.

Look at what's selling most in the U.S. to the point where we have to import weapons from f'cking Croatia: pistols, revolvers, shotguns and ammunition for those weapons. But what's the most common reason given for such record-breaking sales?

U.S. gun sales have benefited from the country’s weapons- culture and regulations, according to the survey. A 10-year ban on U.S. assault-weapon sales expired in 2004.

“The production of civilian versions of assault rifles and high-caliber sniper rifles is mainly concentrated in the U.S., where the country’s gun culture embraces, and permissive regulations facilitate, the ownership of semi-automatic assault rifles and sniper rifles by civilians,” the report said.

Americans are buying more guns in anticipation of potentially tighter regulation of firearms under President Barack Obama’s administration, Merriman Curhan Ford & Co analyst Eric Wold said June 19. The U.S. recession, the worst in half a century, has also contributed to gun sales as people seek to protect themselves against crime, he said.

Stop and ask yourselves this: do either of those reasons given, the return of the assault weapons ban or increased violent crime, make any sense right now based on what people are buying?

No. First, the assault weapons ban reason. That one is mentioned in every story about ammo sales and gun sales being up. But pistols, revolvers, and shotguns aren't rifles. It makes no sense whatsoever to stock up on Glocks and 9mm ammo if you're expecting a ban on rifles.

Second, the violent crime reason. Again, violent crimes actually went down in many parts of America over the last fifteen years, and we've had recessions before in that same fifteen year span...how come we're seeing such a dramatic increase in gun sales in just the last eight months?

"Ahh," you're saying. "But Zandar, people are afraid the Democrats are going to ban all guns, that's why people are buying them."

That's ridiculous.

Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats took over Congress back in 2006. If Americans were really worried about Democrats passing "ban all guns" laws, then 2007 should be filled with the same kind of record purchasing for handguns, shotguns, and ammo for those weapons.

It wasn't. From USA Today, May 21, 2007:

Ammunition shipments to local gun shops and police departments are being delayed for months because the Army has more than tripled its demand for small caliber ammunition.

Ammunition plants have dramatically ratcheted up production, but company officials acknowledge delays to police and retailers of up to a year.

"There are millions of rounds backordered because the war has put such a demand on the manufacturers," said Lana Ulner, manager of Ultramax Ammunition, a distributor for several manufacturers. "In some cases, it can take eight to 12 months."

The Army's demand for small caliber ammunition has soared to 1.5 billion rounds in 2006 from 426 million rounds in 2001, according to the Joint Munitions Command at the Rock Island Arsenal in Illinois.

The government spent $688 million on ammunition last year, up from $242 million in 2001, said Gail Smith, a Joint Munitions Command spokeswoman. The most common rounds ordered are 5.56 mm, 7.62 mm and .50 caliber, she said.

Wait, what?

Any gun aficionado, cop, military vet, or military history buff will tell you the same thing: those 3 ammo types are all rifle cartridges, not handgun or shotgun ammo. Handguns in the US overwhelmingly use 9mm ammo, or .357 or .45 caliber rounds. Shotguns use 12-gauge shells. It makes sense for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to cause shortages in rifle ammunition...but there's no report of handgun ammo shortages in the article. Not a word about handguns or shotguns.

And yet, the Democrats took over the law-making body of the United States. They could have introduced all sorts of laws...but didn't.

Local gun control legislation makes no sense as a reason either...it's a national shortage of handguns and shotguns and ammo for those weapons.

So, we're left with what changed in 2008. The answer, Obama was elected. But when did Barack Obama ever say he was making gun control a priority? He didn't. He did mention in one debate that he thought the assault weapons ban should have been renewed, but he's also said he respected the second amendment. None of his policy decisions explain a national, massive, complete shortage on pistols, revolvers, shotguns and ammo for those weapons in every state across the country.

So what does explain this?

I have a theory. You're not going to like it.

Handguns and shotguns are inexpensive, easy to use, clean, maintain, and are reliable. They are sold in far more places than rifles. Handguns especially are the kind of thing you teach beginners to use. They're the kind of thing you want around for actually using when you have to use them, not for showing off or for dick-measuring contests. They are the kind of things you teach your wife, your sister, your younger son or daughter to use and keep as a serious tool for protection.

Protection from what, however? Crime is down, we've already said. Yes, it is. Why now? And especially why the ammo sales? There's a reason to purchase lots of semi-automatic and automatic rifle ammunition. You go through a lot of it. Why buy a crapload of 9mm ammo now?

Because you plan to use it. Because you think you'll need it. A lot of it. And soon.

Why? What are all these people doing with all this ammo? These shortages have gone on for months. Ammo manufacturers know they are losing money. They have every reason to ramp up handgun ammo sales and have had months of warning to adjust. There are still shortages.

Why? Why would ordinary Americans stock up on pistols and 9mm ammo like it was, well, the end of the world once Barack Obama specifically was elected President?

Can you come up with another reason? One that so far hasn't been given? One that you most likely don't want to think about?

I'll give you a hint.

Barack Obama represents the first African-American elected to the White House.

Yeah, I said it.

The reason?

Obama Derangement Syndrome on a national scale. And a very, very, very dangerous scale. All the talk about revolution. All the talk about secession. All the talk about "us" vs "them".

A whole hell of a lot of people think this shit is for real, folks. Enough to the point of buying shitloads of guns and ammo in this crapass economy, when middle class Americans are struggling to buy food. Think about that. Americans have nearly limitless extra cash for handguns and ammo in this economy. They are prioritizing.

They have been told to prioritize. They have been told to prepare. All this talk about taking back the country? People are taking it seriously. Deadly seriously. Millions of Americans. Your friends and neighbors. They are listening to the revolution fantasies. They see them as practical, pragmatic realities.

You don't believe me? In 2009, only 39% of Americans believe in evolution. Yeah, 25% of Americans don't believe in it, but 36% of Americans AREN'T SURE. Yeah, that means 61% of Americans doubt evolution. 3 out of 5 of us. Odds are good your friends, your neighbors, your co-workers, your boss, your family members...they doubt evolution. You wouldn't expect that, at least I wouldn't. But there you are.

So yeah, if I can believe Americans doubt evolution, then I can believe they want to be in the Revolution, too. They believe increasingly that Obama is the Enemy. They believe they need to be arming their families with reliable weapons for what's coming next. They've been told to do so.

It's going to get really, really ugly soon, folks. I honestly believe that. It's coming apart out there. The evidence is there if you look.

I'm scared. Honestly and truly frightened. You should be too.