Breaking Out The Old Playbook

Democrats continue to walk into the jet engine intake politically, and Byron York over at the GOP Talking Point Washington Examiner is rubbing his hands, awaiting the 2010 bloodbath as Democrats take the blame for obstructing health care.

It's a possibility many Republicans speak of only in whispers and Democrats are just now beginning to face. After passionate and contentious fights over health care, the environment, and taxes, could Democrats lose big -- really big -- in next year's elections?

Ask them about it, and many Democrats will point to the continued personal popularity of Barack Obama. But that's not the story. "I think what's going to happen is Obama's going to be fine, and the Democrats in Congress are going to get their asses kicked in 2010," says one Democratic strategist who prefers not to be named. "This is following a curve like the Clinton years: take on really controversial things early, fail, or succeed partially, ask Democrats to take really tough votes, and then lose. A lot of guys are going to get beat, but the president has time to recover."

Seven months in and the GOP is already planning the celebration.

I think somebody's getting just a tad bit ahead of themselves. What's the Republican plan to deal with all the problems Republicans left Obama, to do the same things they were doing under Bush?

Until the GOP comes up with ideas that are better than what the Democrats have, they're not winning anything. The lesson to Democrats is simple: Git 'r' done.

[UPDATE 3:30 PM] Bill Schneider reminds us exactly why Contract With America II: Wingnut Boogaloo ain't happenin'.

President Obama's job-approval rating fell from 63 percent in late April, at the end of his first 100 days, to 56 percent early this month, after 200 days, according to a CNN poll conducted by Opinion Research. That's a 7-point decline. Among white men, Obama's ratings have fallen twice as far -- down 14 points, from 56 percent to 42 percent. Obama's most outspoken critic? Limbaugh.

But there are important differences this time. In August 1993, at the end of his first 200 days, President Clinton's job-approval rating stood at 44 percent, 12 points lower than Obama's is now. In 1994, white men comprised 43 percent of the electorate. In 2008, their share fell to 36 percent.

And in 2010 it will be even lower. It will be lower still in 2012, and so on. The GOP still has a major, major problem outside Angry White Men. You can hate health care reform all you want to...but in the voting booth, your vote counts just as much as mine does.

And the GOP is losing the numbers game badly.