Still Not Worried About 2010

Gallup's new generic ballot poll has the Dems up 46%-44% over the GOP with 10% undecided. On the surface that's bad news, especially given Gallup's prediction model for mid-term elections shows that if the Dems are anywhere under 48%, that they lose the House. In fact, if Gallup's model holds true, the Dems would lose a ton of seats, somewhere between 42 and 60, giving the Republicans a solid lead in the lower chamber:

The trick is that 10% undecided, and the fact that even a couple of percentage points means the Dems will be more than ok. At 51 or 52%, the Dems would in fact have a shot at gaining seats from where they are right now. the other problem is the turnout model and prediction models no longer hold true. We're in new territory electorate-wise since 2008. 2010's electorate is simply demographically far different from 1994. If that undecided falls evenly, the Dems are fine.

If all the undedcided break for the GOP, then the Dems are in trouble, but I just don't see that happening. Remember, this is a chart of the ultimate total share of a two-party poll without undecideds. Even 6-4 the GOP way still leaves the Dems at 49% and they keep the House according to the model.

Still not worried.