Last Call

So, if I'm reading this right, Al Gore says the polar ice caps could be gone by 2017.  Five to seven years, is what he's saying.

"2008 had a smaller minimum, probably, than 2007," Gore said, alluding to work led by California-based researcher Wieslaw Maslowski.

"Some of the models suggest to Dr. Maslowski that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire polar ice cap during some summer months could be completely ice free within five to seven years," Gore said.

Gore's immediately being attacked over this.

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.

Here's my question.  Shouldn't a 75% chance of ice-free summer months in the Arctic in seven years, even as a ballpark figure, still scare the bejesus out of people?  Even 15 years or 20 would still be horrific news.