T For Tanner Is Not T For Trouble

Long-time Blue Dog Dem John Tanner of Tennessee will join Kansas Blue Dog Dennis Moore in retiring from the House.

While Tanner ran unopposed in his last two re-election victories, John McCain won the district by 13 points in last year's presidential contest. But 14 of the 20 state lawmakers in the district are Democrats. The district is located in the northwest portion of Tennessee and includes Jackson. Will Tanner's retirement present the GOP with an opportunity?

"With $1.4 million in the bank, John Tanner opted for retirement rather than be forced to defend the abysmal economic policies of the Obama-Pelosi agenda," Ken Spain, National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director, tells CNN. "When a longtime incumbent such as Tanner – who hasn't faced a credible challenge in over decade – chooses to retire, it speaks to the deteriorating political environment that Democrats have left in their wake after eleven short months."

But Rep. Chris Van Hollen, Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is optimistic his party can keep the seat.

"We are confident that a Democrat who shares Congressman John Tanner's determination to bringing bipartisan, commonsense solutions for Tennessee's families will succeed him as the next Representative of Tennessee's 8th District," says Van Hollen in a statement.

Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Hotline, says Tanner's retirement carries a lot of weight: "As the longtime leader of the Blue Dogs, and someone who's gone from majority to minority and back in his 21 years in Congress, many would take his decision as a signal that moderates were in a heap of trouble in 2010. If a guy like that is leaving, the thinking would go, how can a freshman or sophomore in a similar district have any hope of hanging on?"

Sigh. The Village. As I said when Moore announced his retirement last week, there are opportunities on both sides here.  But part of the problem the Dems had in 1994 was from the unusual number of retirements (there were 20, including 9 in January and February of that year.)  Two retirements on the other hand does not a tidal wave make.

Doesn't stop the idiotic speculation, of course.  Remember at this point two years ago, there were seventeen House Republicans calling it quits (and six more in the Senate!)   Besides, Dems have already signed up a candidate to run for Tanner's seat.  State Sen. Roy Herron will most likely face off against Republican Steven Fincher in 2010.

When the Democrats' retirement numbers get to a dozen or more then you have a trend.  Until then, the Dems are looking to play hardball on defense, and the near immediate candidacy of Roy Herron shows the Dems are serious about keeping the seat.