Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Big Unit's Big Exit

Senators aren't the only people retiring this week, legendary lefty Randy "Big Unit" Johnson is hanging up his glove, too.

 
SI's Tim Marchman argues the Big Unit was the greatest left-hander of all time, and Johnson has the numbers to back it up over Sandy Koufax:
During his five-year peak, Koufax ran up a 111-34 record with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 1,444 in 1,377 innings. From 1998-2002, Johnson's record was 100-38, with a 2.63 ERA and 1,746 strikeouts in 1,274 1/3 innings. Koufax won five straight ERA titles, leading in strikeouts and wins three times and innings twice. Johnson won three ERA titles and four strikeout crowns while leading in innings twice and wins once.

Taking these numbers at face value, you'd say that as marvelous as Johnson was at his best, Koufax was that much better. But then Koufax pitched in a great pitcher's park in a great pitcher's era, while Johnson pitched in good hitter's parks in a great hitter's era. Going by ERA+, which adjusts for park and league effects and indexes them on a scale where 100 is average, Johnson actually has the better of it over their five-year primes, 175-167. Perhaps more impressively, he led his leagues in ERA+ four times during his best five year run. Koufax did that twice.

What makes Johnson so special isn't that he had a five-year run to rate with Koufax's prime, though; it's what he did outside of it. Leave aside that run from 1998 through 2002 and Johnson's career record is 203-128 with a 3.28 ERA --essentially Curt Schilling's entire career, Hall-worthy in its own right. Add Koufax's prime to that and you have something unfathomable, something that I'd say rates as the best career any left-hander has ever had.

There are arguments for other pitchers, but they aren't convincing. Spahn wasn't nearly as effective as Johnson per inning and had probably one year that would rate among Johnson's ten best, though he pitched over than 1,000 more innings and lost another three seasons to World War II. Carlton was essentially Spahn with a higher peak and more merely average seasons. Grove had a better ERA+ in a similar number of innings and won more ERA titles, but that should be discounted because black and Latino ballplayers weren't allowed to play in the majors during his career. There isn't another left-hander who can touch Johnson's peak, let alone his career value. Judged dispassionately, he stands alone.

What we'll remember, though, isn't his statistical ranking -- it's just how terrifying Johnson was. By the time his career had reached its apex, baseball was too polite a game for intimidation to really play much of a role, but there were five players who truly scared people. The others were Clemens, Martinez, Mariano Rivera and Barry Bonds. That's terrific company. He deserved to keep it.
And to be perfectly honest, Johnson really was the best southie.  He's going to the Hall on the first ballot, guaranteed.  But the 6' 10" Johnson was terrifying to face, he had not only the numbers but the aura as well.  David Cone, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, all of those guys were devastating pitchers, but nobody in the game wanted to go up against Big Unit.  Nobody.  He's 6' 10'...what are you going to do, charge the mound?

In an era of performance enhancers, he stands head and shoulders above the rest by himself.

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