Dodd Man Walkin'

There's plenty of speculation out there in the Village today as to what Chris Dodd's retirement means for financial reform.

It’s hard to discern whether Dodd’s retirement will lead him to give in on a host of issues (as one “gleeful” financial services lobbyist told Politico it would) or compel him to put “it all on the line to get what he wants, bipartisanship be damned.”

But one thing is for certain: Dodd’s retirement means that the regulatory reform effort needs to wrap up this year, as Dodd’s likliest successor as chairman is Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), a very bank-friendly Democrat who would almost certainly produce a worse product. And this point hasn’t escaped Republicans, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out:

At the same time, [Dodd's] decision gives Republicans the incentive to draw out the process until after next year’s elections when a more business-friendly Democrat could ascend to the banking panel’s chairmanship. Next in line on the committee is Sen. Tim Johnson (D., S.D.), generally seen as more receptive to industry concerns.

According to Roll Call, “Senate Democrats said that no palace intrigue is expected to take place with the Banking panel” and that Johnson will take the gavel. So Republicans and the financial industry have ample motivation to gum up the works until Dodd is all the way out.

It would be just fine for Republicans to simply delay the bill until election season, in which case they could simply shop around for better "reform" the Tim Johnson way.

But it's where Dodd might be going next that is raising the most eyebrows:  word is he could be getting Timmy's job.

Speculation has also begun about potential employment for Dodd in the Obama administration.

For instance, several Democratic Senate aides noted that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is an extremely unpopular figure in the Senate. Geithner has also taken the brunt of the criticism for the administration’s handling of the economy and, these sources speculated, if the country’s financial picture does not brighten before Election Day, he could be the first secretary to leave the administration.

Although Dodd would appear to be well-situated to take control of Treasury if the position were to open, it may not be smooth sailing for his nomination.

Now I wouldn't lose a wink of sleep if Obama decided to throw Timmy under the bus, but the fact this is being so calmly discussed right now shows that Obama probably needs to throw Timmy under the bus sooner rather than later...other than the fact that he needs Dodd in the Senate right now more.

The Village is now expecting it to happen.  I'm sure Timmy's really happy this morning.