That Self-Fulfilling Stupidity Again

Chris Bowers at Open Left crunches the numbers on the latest MA Senate poll from PPP, finding Brown ahead 48-47.

PPP has just released their poll of the Massachusetts Senate race.  Republican Scott Brown actually leads Democrat Martha Coakley by one point among likely voters:

Brown: 48%
Coakley: 47%

Earlier in the week, Rasmussen found Coakley ahead 50%-41%.

Additionally, there are rumors of two other polls to be released tomorrow.  From the National Review Online:

A reader in Massachusetts  that I trust sends along word that each of the Boston papers will have a poll of the Senate race out this weekend. The Globe's poll, he hears, will have Coakley up by 15 percentage points. The Herald poll, he hears, will have it much closer-Coakley ahead by 7 percentage points among all voters, Coakley ahead by only 1 percentage point among likely voters.

Let's assume for the moment that both of these polls exist, and that the spreads reported here are accurate. That would mean four polls on the campaign over the past week showing margins of:

Coakley +15
Coakley +9
Coakley +1
Brown +1

That comes to a simple mean of 6.0% for Coakley.  That is much closer than it should be, but still actually a pretty solid lead for a polling average.  The odds of a Scott Brown win are still only 4.2%, pending further polling.

In other words, calm is needed.  But it also means that turnout is needed too, and the Dems have about a week to figure out how to get folks out there for Coakley, or the GOP will have 41 votes in the Senate and will filibuster everything, period.  Game over.

Hopefully this is the spark to get the Dems moving.  Oh...and it now 100% assures a Coakley win will be "ACORN stole the election!"