Thursday, March 18, 2010

The Count Of Charlie Crist, Oh! Part 13

The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll on Florida's Senate race confirms what I've been saying for a while now: Charlie Crist is done.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5% for primary samples). (11/16-18/2009 results)
GOP Senate Primary
Charlie Crist (R) 30 (47)
Marco Rubio (R)   58 (37)


Other polling has shown Rubio blowing past Crist, so that's not so much news. But only we are asking this question:
Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America, or not? (Republican primary voters only)
Yes 33 (35)
No  30 (29)
Not sure 37 (36)


Obama born in US:
Rubio: 23 (16)
Crist: 66 (73)

Obama not born in US:
Rubio: 74 (54)
Crist:  8 (31)

Not Sure where Obama was born:
Rubio: 76 (45)
Crist: 16 (33)
In other words, Rubio has a solid lead over Crist now and isn't looking back.  28 points, even with the Primary still more than five months away, only means that Crist will keep crashing.  But here's Rubio's problem:  He's losing independents in a general election as fast as he's gaining primary voting Republicans from Crist.
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion
Charlie Crist 44/45/11 (59/23/9)
Marco Rubio   29/36/35 (21/22/57)
Kendrick Meek 25/18/57 (23/9/68)


Meek is still invisible. But Rubio is now well into net-negative territory. And particularly disturbing for him, that fall has come from independents, going from 18/21/61 last November, to 26/38/36. Independents aren't liking what they see from him. It would be nice if Meek improved on his numbers, but at this point, he's the only candidate left with a net-positive favorability rating.
All Meek has to do is keep doing what he's doing to come across as the non-Rubio candidate, and he can win this mess.  As Rubio keep pulling further and further to the right to beat Crist, he's going to find himself in a situation where he loses the middle to Kendrick Meek.

Classic Hoffman Effect.

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