Home Stretch

As I said yesterday, it's all down to the Stupak bloc now.  The more Pelosi can peel away, the weaker they get until they may collapse entirely and leave Bart Stupak himself blowing in the wind, where presumably Pelosi will give Stupak a chance to save face and vote for the bill, allowing it to pass.

Two developments this morning strongly point to this scenario playing out as you read this.  First, Stupak bloc number two, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, is voting yes according to Greg Sargent.

“Yes I will,” Kaptur said, when asked if she’d be supporting the Senate bill. Asked why, she continued:

“We received assurances last night that we will work with the administration and Secretary Sebelius and the President to ensure existing law is maintained.”

That’s a reference to HHC secretary Kathleen Sebelius, and appears to mean that the Stupak bloc was given these reassurances last night at the White House.

It’s unclear right now whether this means the White House agreed to an executive order reaffirming the ban on Federal funding on abortion, or whether White House aides made more general assurances.

The Stupak bloc is crumbling hourly.  The important thing is that some sort of deal is now in the works, and that brings us to Stupak's face-saving manuever so that he agrees to the vote.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said Sunday morning that he is close to striking a deal with the Obama administration on abortion provisions.

"We are close to getting something done," Stupak said in an interview with MSNBC.

Stupak said he engaged in talks late into Saturday night.

The possible deal would focus on an executive order that would specify there would be no public funding for abortions in the healthcare bill.

"We're close but we're not there yet," Stupak said.

Of course, that's what the Senate bill does now anyway, the Stupak language was always an attempt to go well and beyond the existing federal rules and make health insurance that did cover abortions impossible to get by kicking out any plan that did cover it from being eligible for subsidies, effectively pricing them out of the market.  Stupak lost that fight yesterday, now he's getting a chance to atone.  That's a smart move by Pelosi to fix a moronic one by Stupak, and that's what House Speakers are supposed to do: keep the big picture and the long haul in mind.  Stupak's vote will be needed again in the future for the rest of Obama's agenda.  Allowing him to save face instead of torching him makes the rest of 2010 a bit easier.

Having said that, he does have a primary challenger in Connie Saltonstall.  If you're in Michigan, you can send Stupak another message that way as well.  Let's not forget that much of this last minute mess is on Bart Stupak's head personally.  Forgiving is one thing.  Forgetting is another.

[UPDATE 12:40 PM] A reader at TPM sums this up perfectly.

Health care reform has been central to the Democratic Party since well before any Democratic member of Congress was even serving. It has been central to the Democratic agenda since before most of them were even born. That any Congressional Democrat is running away from this is a scandal. What did they expect to be voting on when they ran for Congress? Why on earth are they even a Democrat if they're not going to vote for health care?

I understand that politics is a messy business. I understand that Democrats have a big tent. I understand that ideological differences and political realities will require some Democrats to part company with their peers on many issues. But health care is different. I can forgive a vote against health care in only a handful of truly difficult districts. The rest of them have no excuse.

Amen to that.  Given the centerpiece of Obama's campaign was health care reform, every Democrat that ran and won in 2008 knew this vote was coming.  If you're not supporting health care reform, why are you a Democrat?