Gaming Out The Financial Reform Vote

Although the most likely scenario is that the test vote today is filibustered and there's another week or two of negotiations before the bill gets a second shot, Brian Beutler of TPM plays out the five other scenarios that could happen in today's Senate test vote for Wall Street reform:

The GOP blinks: The fact of the matter is that, if a deal really is imminent, there's no harm in putting legislation on the floor and amending it when the compromise is reached. And for that reason, some Republicans don't really see the point of taking a politically toxic vote just to make a symbolic point. For that reason, it's possible that one or more of them will decide to break from the party. Most Republicans at the center of this debate--Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Banking Committee Ranking Member Richard Shelby, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN)--say they think all 41 members will stand together, thus sustaining the filibuster. But somebody could blink. One leading candidate: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). She's sounded most amenable to working with Democrats. She supports tight regulation of derivatives, and with the Dem bill trending in the direction of stiff new rules governing the trading of those products, she could bite.

The Dems blink: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could choose to delay the vote. Frankly, this isn't very likely: Dems are actually somewhat eager for the GOP to go on the record blocking debate on reining in Wall Street. But if Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd appeals to him--if a deal with Shelby is at hand, say--he could back off for a day or two.

A Dem Spoiler: If tonight's supermajority test vote fails 59-41 on a party-line vote, with all Dems on one side and all Republicans on the other, Democratw will be able to draw a stark contrast between themselves and the GOP. What would muddy that contrast significantly, though, is if there's a lurking spoiler on the Democrats' side of the aisle. If Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) or another conservative Democrat decides to side with the GOP tonight, be prepared to hear a lot from the GOP about "bipartisan opposition" to the Democrats bill.

They reach a deal: As of this morning, Shelby has said a deal before tonight's vote is unlikely. But you never know! If a breakthrough happens, Republicans could drop their filibuster, or Democrats could move the vote back, and the legislative process will proceed smoothly.

The GOP drops out: Reid's decision to force a vote is nothing if not a power play. And Republicans are nothing if not petulant. If they're looking for an excuse to drop out of negotiations, or take them in a painstakingly slow direction, they could throw a hissy fit over the vote, and throw the legislative process into complete disarray. They're not threatening to do that by any means. In fact Shelby, Corker, and McConnell have all said they'll deal with the vote, while talks with Democrats continue in the background--the vote, they say, won't poison the well. But this is the GOP. They've practically made a habit of drawing out negotiations over major legislation until the last moment, then finding some excuse for backing out. So let's not rule that out.

Of the five remaining scenarios, #5 is by far the most likely, followed by #3.  In fact I think #5 there is almost as likely as today's GOP filibuster and delay play.  In fact combine the two: Most likely is that the vote fails 59-41, the Dems attack the GOP as in the pocket of Wall Street, and the GOP pulls out and says that the entire bill has to go back to the beginning, and that there will be no reform otherwise.

It depends on if Corker or Snowe crack.  But having that happen without the ConservaDems bailing, especially Evan Bayh, will simply not happen.  No, I forsee the GOP making a complete fingerpaint on Grandma's new tablecloth mess of things here tonight.  Word is they will offer their own bill and use that to delay the Democrats as long as possible, perhaps long enough to make sure that nothing passes, or else they will pick up their ball and go home, because that's all they are capable of as a party anymore.

Watch.  I was never convinced that this was going to pass, and I'm even more skeptical now.  Obama may be the man, but...he needs a Republican to vote to break the filibuster.  And as long as that doesn't happen, the GOP tyranny of the minority will continue.

If the Republicans win here, Obama's agenda is dead.

[UPDATE] Surprise!  Ben Nelson just stabbed the Dems in the back and voted to filibuster and the GOP is already claiming "bipartisan opposition to this partisan bill".   It's option #3 in the list there.  Good call, TPM crew.

Now the GOP will most likely pick up their ball and go home, declaring the bill dead unless completely rewritten.  And Ben Nelson's vote now makes it very difficult to hit the GOP on blocking this, unless they're willing to go after Nelson too.

My God, Democrats are stupid.  Stupid, stupid, stupid.