Running The Numbers

Via BooMan, the LA Times has some preliminary 2009 numbers ahead of the 2010 Census and they show the Republicans are in real electoral trouble over the next decade or so.

Minorities now make up about 35% of the population in the United States, an increase of 5% from 2000, reflecting demographic changes seen most powerfully in the Golden State.

"More of the country is going to be like California," said William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. Minorities make up 57% of the population in California.

If you don't believe that's got the Republicans scared out of their minds, look at the Oval Office right now.  The strategy of demonizing minorities as not being "real Americans" is going to backfire in an incredible way against the GOP, and sooner than people think:

In 42 states, numbers show a loss of non-Hispanic whites under age 45. Nationally, this group declined by 8.4 million.

In contrast, the number of states in which the majority of children under 15 are minorities has increased, with Florida, Maryland, Georgia and Nevada bringing the number of such states to 10.

Much of the nation's demographic change is seen among children. In California, minorities make up 72% of those under age 15. In 2000, they made up 65%.

Nationally, 46% of children under 15 are minorities, compared with 40% in 2000.

In 2000, the District of Columbia and three states — Hawaii, New Mexico and California — had minority populations which exceeded 50%. In 2009, Texas joined that group.

We're already seeing that Georgia, Nevada, Florida and Maryland are starting to get very competitive in national elections, along with states like North Carolina, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado.  But the fact that Texas is now a majority minority state has got to knock the blocks out from under the national GOP.  Arizona's "papers, please" law couldn't have come at a worse time for the Republicans.  Yes, it's going to help them in 2010 and probably 2012.  After that?  The downhill slope into the dustbin of history gets really steep, really fast.

Among Latinos, there are nine births for every one death, according to census data. For whites, the ratio is 1-1. "That's a huge difference," Stoll said.

There's a reason why Republicans are trying to blow a hole in the 14th Amendment's Citizenship clause, people.  It's because without eliminating the citizenship (and therefore right to vote) of the next generation of Latinos, the GOP becomes a Southern and Rocky Mountain regional party at best.  They've gone all in on this one and there's no other way out.

The Republicans damn well know it, too.