The Domestic Product Is Indeed Gross

The 2nd quarter GDP numbers are out:  2.4% growth in the last three months, down from a revised 3.7% in the 1st quarter.  That's not good, but the real story is the quiet downward revision of the 2007-2009 numbers.

The Commerce Department, in revisions issued Friday, estimates the economy shrank 2.6 percent last year — the steepest drop since 1946. That's worse than the 2.4 percent decline originally estimated.

The economy's plunge underscores why the unemployment rate surged to 10.1 percent in October, a 26-year high.

The revisions in gross domestic product, or GDP, now show zero growth in 2008. That compares with a 0.4 percent gain previously estimated.The economy also grew less in 2007 (1.9 percent) than earlier thought (2.1 percent).

For all three years, consumers spent less and home builders cut more deeply than had been thought. Those factors help explain the downward revisions on the economy.

I'm betting we'll see even more downward future revisions.   Meanwhile, here in the present, the recovery is dying, and I just don't see the numbers getting any better anytime soon.

In fact, I expect them to get much worse.  Keep an eye on the ECRI index today:  I'm betting we break that -10% barrier, and that's all but assured.