Like A House On Fire

I've been pretty grim about the GOP taking over in November in the House.  And yes, the Democrats will certainly lose seats in the 2010 elections and there are reasons why.  But, there are a couple of reasons why the GOP may not reach 39 pickups, at least according to MSNBC's First Read crew:

The facts are the facts: The Cook Political Report identifies 64 Democratic-held seats as either “Lean” or “Toss-up” races, and Republicans would need to win a majority of them (39) to win control of the House. Indeed, there are four reasons why the House is up for grabs: 1) according to history, the GOP stands to pick up seats; 2) Republicans enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage; 3) Democrats are losing the independent vote; and 4) much of the House battleground will play in white/rural districts, where Obama isn’t performing well.

On the other hand, the Republicans may not get all 39:

But we also can list another four reasons why the GOP won’t win back the House: 1) Unlike in ’94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that's no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party’s; 2) Unlike in ’94, the GOP isn’t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces; 3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC’s political/fundraising troubles won’t be able to make up the difference; and 4) winning 39 seats is a tall order. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 -- during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina -- they picked up 30 House seats. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that. One thing that's truly amazing about this cycle, historically: The fact we're headed for a third-straight cycle where more than 20 seats change hands.

So, MSNBC's political aces are calling at least 20 Republicans pickups, but not 39.   That will actually be good news for the Dems if that's the case.  But it also leaves the Republicans in a position where 2012 becomes a referendum on giving the Republicans back the White House as well as both chambers in Congress, and well within the possibility of winning back all three.  That may in turn motivate Democrats to stop them, it being a presidential election year.

But I do see this being a distinct possibility, where the Dems lose a healthy number of seats but keep control.  The Village will act like the Republicans are in charge anyway, but we'll see what happens.

On the other hand, NBC's Chuck Todd basically said at Aspen that if the GOP managed to not win the House back this year, it would be political malpractice.   Funny how Chuckle's First Read Crew says one thing in public and another for Villager consumption.