Running The Numbers

Nate Silver's latest Senate update is here, and it's not good news for the Dems.

The model gives Republicans a 17 percent chance of taking over the Senate if Charlie Crist caucuses with them, up significantly from 6 percent three weeks ago. If Crist does not caucus with them, their chances of a takeover are 12 percent. However, the model does not account for the contingency that someone like Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson could decide to switch parties, which makes their chances slightly better than we suggest here.

Democrats' chances of gaining a net of one or more seat and re-claiming a 60-seat majority are 7 percent, down from 12 percent three weeks ago. If they could persuade Charlie Crist to caucus with them, however, their chances would improve to 10 percent.

That's the bad news.  The somewhat better news?

Rasmussen now accounts for ~55% of the raw polling data we use in our Senate model. We have lots of ways to counteract this, but still --

So yeah, depending on Nate's model's corrections, control of the Senate may or may not be in play.  But Nate's numbers on a 59-41 Congress right now have a better chance of the GOP picking up ten seats and getting to 51 than the Dems picking up one seat and getting to 60.  If everything goes the GOP's way in Nate's chart, it's entirely possible that Charlie Crist could decide which party controls the Senate. 


Food for thought.