I don't think people fully comprehend how scary the generic ballot numbers are for Democrats.
We go back to Nate's generic ballot chart from April:
Anything more than R+3 means the Dems lose the House under Nate's model.
Even the most generous polls for the Democrats right now, CNN and PPP, have the Republicans at +3. Rasmussen has them at +12 with the average around +6.
To put that in badly needed perspective, best case scenario right now is Dems maybe, maybe keep the House by a seat or two. Average case is the Republicans pick up 54 seats and have a comfortable lead. Rasmussen case, the Republicans pick up close to 80 seats and end up with the same margin of control that the Democrats have now.
Are we sufficiently convinced that Obama and the Democrats may need to in fact change tactics on the economy and jobs?
Nate gets into the heavy numbers and the science of the generic ballot as forecasting tool here.
Too late to change now honestly, no matter what move you make you will be assaulted. It's election time, even a sneeze can be inferred as incompetence. With Obama out there campaigning I wonder if his curse will strike again...
ReplyDeleteNY Daily News has an AP poll showing 56% disapprove of the president's handling of the economy